Effective Radiative Forcing Research Articles

Air quality improvements are projected to weaken the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation through radiative forcing effects

Observations indicate the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation-a fundamental component of the ocean’s global conveyor belt-is weakening. Although causes remain uncertain, such weakening is consistent with increasing greenhouse gases. Recent studies also suggest that anthropogenic emissions associated with air pollution can impact the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Here, we use four state-of-the-art chemistry-climate models to quantify how efforts to improve future air quality, via near-term climate forcer mitigation, will impact the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Future reductions in aerosols, ozone and precursor gases alone induces end-of-century weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation by up to 10%. However, when methane reductions are also included, this weakening is offset. The responses are best explained by changes in the North Atlantic radiative forcing. Thus, efforts to improve air quality must also target methane and other greenhouse gases including carbon dioxide to avoid weakening of the world’s major ocean circulation system.

Separating the shortwave and longwave components of greenhouse gas radiative forcing

AbstractMany important greenhouse gases (including water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane and ozone) absorb solar radiation. When gas concentrations change, this absorption exerts a radiative forcing that modifies the thermal infrared (‘longwave’) radiative forcing which is predominant for most gases (ozone being a major exception). The nature of the solar forcing differs from the longwave forcing in several ways. For example, the sign of the instantaneous solar forcing can differ between the tropopause and top‐of‐atmosphere, and the sign can differ between gases. In addition, a significant part of the solar forcing can be manifested in the longwave, following stratospheric temperature adjustment, which can counteract or enhance the instantaneous solar forcing. Here the nature of solar forcing is examined via a mixture of idealised and more realistic calculations, which consider the effect of perturbations in carbon dioxide, methane and ozone. An apparent contradiction in the sign of the solar forcing of carbon dioxide is resolved; it is shown to be negative, reducing the net carbon dioxide forcing by about 2.3%. The relevance of this work to the effective radiative forcing concept is also discussed.

Evolution of light absorption properties during photochemical aging of straw open burning aerosols

Straw burning comprises more than 30% of all types of burned biomass in Asia, while the estimation of the emitted aerosols' direct radiative forcing effect suffers from large uncertainties, especially when atmospheric aging processes are considered. In this study, the light absorption properties of primary and aged straw burning aerosols in open fire were characterized at 7 wavelengths ranging from 370 nm to 950 nm in a chamber. The primary rice, corn and wheat straw burning bulk aerosols together had a mass absorption efficiency (MAE) of 2.43 ± 1.36 m2 g−1 at 520 nm and an absorption Ångström exponent (AAE) of 1.93 ± 0.71, while the primary sorghum straw burning bulk aerosols were characterized by a relatively lower MAE of 0.95 ± 0.54 m2 g−1 and a higher AAE of 4.80 ± 0.68. Both the MAE and AAE of primary aerosols can be well parameterized by the (PM-BC)/BC ratio (in wt.). The MAE of black carbon (BC) increased by 11–190% during photoreactions equivalent to 16–60 h of atmospheric aging, which was positively correlated with the (PM-BC)/(BC) ratio. The MAE of organic aerosols first slightly increased or leveled off, and then decreased. Specifically, at 370 nm, the first growth/plateau stage lasted until OH exposure reached 0.47–1.29 × 1011 molecule cm−3 s, and the following period exhibited decay rates of 1.0–2.8 × 10−12 cm3 molecule−1 s−1 against the OH radical, corresponding to half-lives of 46–134 h in a typical ambient condition. During photoreactions, competition among the lensing effect, growth/bleach of organic chromophores, and particle mass and size growth complicated the evolution of the direct radiative forcing effect. It is concluded that rice and corn straw burning aerosols maintained a warming effect after aging, while the cooling effect of fresh sorghum straw burning aerosols increased with aging.

Acoustic sorting of airborne particles by a phononic crystal waveguide

A two-dimensional phononic crystal linear defect waveguide is utilized for size-based sorting of millimeter-sized solid particles in the air through acoustic radiation force. The waveguide channels ultrasonic waves at 20 kHz, as calculated through Finite-Element Method simulations. Spherical solid particles released from rest at the top of the vertically aligned waveguide experience the combined effect of the acoustic radiation, gravity, and drag forces. When the particles are released from the symmetry plane of the waveguide, they follow straight paths where the ones with radii smaller than a threshold value are trapped at the waveguide nodal planes, whereas larger particles are let pass through. This requires input sound pressure levels between 173 dB and 177 dB. Moreover, such particles can also be differentiated with respect to density. Alternatively, the release of particles with a slight offset from the symmetry center induces unbalanced acoustic radiation potential, and thus uneven radiation force, resulting in the initiation of horizontal displacement whose extent depends on particle radius. Thus, both simulation results and experimental findings suggest that this scheme can be employed in size-based particle separation. Sorting of spherical glass particles with 0.5 mm and 1.0 mm radii are experimentally demonstrated for low ultrasonic transducer acoustic power output up to 90 W. The proposed approach can be utilized in applications where contact-free separation of airborne particles is required.

Mitigating climate disruption in time: A self-consistent approach for avoiding both near-term and long-term global warming

The ongoing and projected impacts from human-induced climate change highlight the need for mitigation approaches to limit warming in both the near term (<2050) and the long term (>2050). We clarify the role of non-CO2 greenhouse gases and aerosols in the context of near-term and long-term climate mitigation, as well as the net effect of decarbonization strategies targeting fossil fuel (FF) phaseout by 2050. Relying on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change radiative forcing, we show that the net historical (2019 to 1750) radiative forcing effect of CO2 and non-CO2 climate forcers emitted by FF sources plus the CO2 emitted by land-use changes is comparable to the net from non-CO2 climate forcers emitted by non-FF sources. We find that mitigation measures that target only decarbonization are essential for strong long-term cooling but can result in weak near-term warming (due to unmasking the cooling effect of coemitted aerosols) and lead to temperatures exceeding 2 °C before 2050. In contrast, pairing decarbonization with additional mitigation measures targeting short-lived climate pollutants and N2O, slows the rate of warming a decade or two earlier than decarbonization alone and avoids the 2 °C threshold altogether. These non-CO2 targeted measures when combined with decarbonization can provide net cooling by 2030 and reduce the rate of warming from 2030 to 2050 by about 50%, roughly half of which comes from methane, significantly larger than decarbonization alone over this time frame. Our analysis demonstrates the need for a comprehensive CO2 and targeted non-CO2 mitigation approach to address both the near-term and long-term impacts of climate disruption.

Albedo impacts of current agricultural land use: Crop-specific albedo from MODIS data and inclusion in LCA of crop production

Agricultural land use and management practices affect the global climate due to greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes and changes in land surface properties. Increased albedo has the potential to counteract the radiative forcing and warming effect of emitted GHGs. Thus considering albedo could be important to evaluate and improve agricultural systems in light of climate change, but the albedo of individual practices is usually not known. This study quantified the albedo of individual crops under regional conditions, and evaluated the importance of albedo change for the climate impact of current crop production using life cycle assessment (LCA). Seven major crops in southern Sweden were assessed relative to a land reference without cultivation, represented by semi-natural grassland. Crop-specific albedo data were obtained from a MODIS product (MCD43A1 v6), by combining its spatial response pattern with geodata on agricultural land use 2011–2020. Fluxes of GHGs were estimated using regional data and models, including production of inputs, field operations, and soil nitrogen and carbon balances. Ten-year mean albedo was 6–11% higher under the different crops than under the reference. Crop-specific albedo varied between years due to weather fluctuations, but differences between crops were largely consistent. Increased albedo countered the GHG impact from production of inputs and field operations by 17–47% measured in GWP100, and the total climate impact was warming. Using a time-dependent metric, all crops had a net cooling impact on global mean surface temperature on shorter timescales due to albedo (3–12 years under different crops), but a net warming impact on longer timescales due to GHG emissions. The methods and data presented in this study could support increasingly comprehensive assessments of agricultural systems. Further research is needed to integrate climatic effects of land use on different spatial and temporal scales, and direct and indirect consequences from a systems perspective.

Effective Radiative Forcings Due To Anthropogenic Emission Changes Under Covid-19 and Post-Pandemic Recovery Scenarios.

With the continuation of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (Covid‐19) pandemic, the impacts of this catastrophe on anthropogenic emissions are no longer limited to its early stage. This study quantitatively estimates effective radiative forcings (ERFs) due to anthropogenic well‐mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs) and aerosols for the period 2020–2050 under the three latest Covid‐19 economic‐recovery scenarios using an aerosol‐climate model. The results indicate that reductions in both WMGHG and aerosol emissions under the Covid‐19 green recoveries lead to increases ranging from 0 to 0.3 W m−2 in global annual mean anthropogenic ERF over the period 2020–2050 relative to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2‐4.5 scenario (the baseline case). These positive ERFs are mainly attributed to the rapid and dramatic decreases in atmospheric aerosol content that increase net shortwave radiative flux at the top of atmosphere via weakening the direct aerosol effect and low cloud cover. At the regional scale, reductions in aerosols contribute to positive ERFs throughout the Northern Hemisphere, while the decreased WMGHGs dominate negative ERFs over the areas away from aerosol pollution, such as the Southern Hemisphere oceans. This drives a strong interhemispheric contrast of ERFs. In contrast, the increased anthropogenic emissions under the fossil‐fueled recovery scenario lead to an increase of 0.3 W m−2 in global annual mean ERF in 2050 compared with the baseline case, primarily due to the contribution of WMGHG ERFs. The regional ERF changes are highly dependent on local cloud radiative effects.

Formation, radiative forcing, and climatic effects of severe regional haze

Abstract. Severe regional haze events, which are characterized by exceedingly high levels of fine particulate matter (PM), occur frequently in many developing countries (such as China and India), with profound implications for human health, weather, and climate. The occurrence of the haze extremes involves a complex interplay between primary emissions, secondary formation, and conducive meteorological conditions, and the relative contributions of the various processes remain unclear. Here we investigated severe regional haze episodes in 2013 over the Northern China Plain (NCP), by evaluating the PM production and the interactions between elevated PM and the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Analysis of the ground-based measurements and satellite observations of PM properties shows nearly synchronized temporal PM variations among the three megacities (Beijing, Baoding, and Shijiazhuang) in this region and a coincidence of the aerosol optical depth (AOD) hotspots with the three megacities during the polluted period. During the clean-to-hazy transition, the measured oxygenated organic aerosol concentration ([OOA]) well correlates with the odd-oxygen concentration ([Ox]=[O3]+[NO2]), and the mean [OOA] / [Ox] ratio in Beijing is much larger than those in other megacities (such as Mexico City and Houston), indicating highly efficient photochemical activity. Simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with an explicit aerosol radiative module reveal that strong aerosol–PBL interaction during the polluted period results in a suppressed and stabilized PBL and elevated humidity, triggering a positive feedback to amplify the haze severity at the ground level. Model sensitivity study illustrates the importance of black carbon (BC) in the haze–PBL interaction and the aerosol regional climatic effect, contributing to more than 30 % of the PBL collapse and about half of the positive radiative forcing on the top of the atmosphere. Overall, severe regional haze exhibits strong negative radiative forcing (cooling) of −63 to −88 W m−2 at the surface and strong positive radiative forcing (warming) of 57 to 82 W m−2 in the atmosphere, with a slightly negative net radiative forcing of about −6 W m−2 on the top of the atmosphere. Our work establishes a synthetic view for the dominant regional features during severe haze events, unraveling rapid in situ PM production and inefficient transport, both of which are amplified by atmospheric stagnation. On the other hand, regional transport sufficiently disperses gaseous aerosol precursors (e.g., sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds, and ammonia) during the clean period, which subsequently result in rapid in situ PM production via photochemistry during the transition period and via multiphase chemistry during the polluted period. Our findings highlight the co-benefits for reduction in BC emissions, which not only improve local and regional air quality by minimizing air stagnation but also mitigate the global warming by alleviating the positive direct radiative forcing.

Trapping of Aqueous Droplets under Surface Acoustic Wave-Driven Streaming in Oil-Filled Microwells.

Microwell arrays are ideal platforms for cell culturing, cell separation, and low-volume liquid handling. The ability to manipulate droplets in microwells could open up the opportunity for developing new biochemical assays. Here, we study the trapping of aqueous droplets in an oil-filled microwell driven by the application of nanometer amplitude vibrations called surface acoustic waves (SAW). We elucidate the dynamics of the droplet within the vortex toward the final trapping location and the physics of the trapping phenomenon using a theoretical model by considering the relevant forces. Our study revealed that the combined effect of acoustic radiation and hydrodynamic forces leads to droplet migration and trapping. We demarcate the trapping and nontrapping regimes in terms of the minimum critical input power required for the trapping of droplets of different sizes and densities. We find that the critical power varies as the square of the droplet size and is higher for a denser droplet. The effects of input power and droplet size on the trapping location and trapping time are also studied.

Better calibration of cloud parameterizations and subgrid effects increases the fidelity of the E3SM Atmosphere Model version 1

Abstract. Realistic simulation of the Earth's mean-state climate remains a major challenge, and yet it is crucial for predicting the climate system in transition. Deficiencies in models' process representations, propagation of errors from one process to another, and associated compensating errors can often confound the interpretation and improvement of model simulations. These errors and biases can also lead to unrealistic climate projections and incorrect attribution of the physical mechanisms governing past and future climate change. Here we show that a significantly improved global atmospheric simulation can be achieved by focusing on the realism of process assumptions in cloud calibration and subgrid effects using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Atmosphere Model version 1 (EAMv1). The calibration of clouds and subgrid effects informed by our understanding of physical mechanisms leads to significant improvements in clouds and precipitation climatology, reducing common and long-standing biases across cloud regimes in the model. The improved cloud fidelity in turn reduces biases in other aspects of the system. Furthermore, even though the recalibration does not change the global mean aerosol and total anthropogenic effective radiative forcings (ERFs), the sensitivity of clouds, precipitation, and surface temperature to aerosol perturbations is significantly reduced. This suggests that it is possible to achieve improvements to the historical evolution of surface temperature over EAMv1 and that precise knowledge of global mean ERFs is not enough to constrain historical or future climate change. Cloud feedbacks are also significantly reduced in the recalibrated model, suggesting that there would be a lower climate sensitivity when it is run as part of the fully coupled E3SM. This study also compares results from incremental changes to cloud microphysics, turbulent mixing, deep convection, and subgrid effects to understand how assumptions in the representation of these processes affect different aspects of the simulated atmosphere as well as its response to forcings. We conclude that the spectral composition and geographical distribution of the ERFs and cloud feedback, as well as the fidelity of the simulated base climate state, are important for constraining the climate in the past and future.

Design and characterization of a broadband multi-node bulk acoustic wave device for acoustofluidic applications

The classic approaches to generate the Acoustic Radiation Force (ARF) in a standing wave cavity are based on the use of a specific height for the cavity and a narrow-band acoustic frequency to reach the resonance. We present a robust multi-node cavity working over a broadband range of frequency. This approach allows large acoustophoresis manipulations. The design of a transparent cavity and the use of a broadband ultrasonic transducer allowed the characterization of the acoustic energy and the comparison with a simple 1-D model. The acoustic properties of the system were estimated through the effects of the acoustic radiation forces on particles suspension. From the particle velocities induced by the ARF, measured with a Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) approach, we deduced the acoustic energy over a large frequency range. The automation of the setup allowed the acquisition of a large amount of data to make parametric studies. The results show a wide continuous operating range for the acoustic radiation forces. Furthermore, the occurrence of the resonance peaks allows an increase by a factor ten of the force magnitude. This broadband effect also enables an accurate control of the node positions by tuning the proper acoustic frequency.

Thermo-solutal dual stratified convective magnetized fluid flow from an exponentially stretching Riga plate sensor surface with thermophoresis

A theoretical study is presented for the coupled thermo-solutal free convection two-dimensional boundary layer flow of a of a magnetized fluid from an exponentially stretched magnetic sensor (Riga plate) surface. Heat generation/absorption, nonlinear thermal radiation and thermophoretic body force effects are included. Furthermore, thermal and solutal stratification are also featured in the boundary layer model. The derived nonlinear partial differential equation system with associated wall (sensor surface) and free stream boundary conditions is transformed to system of ordinary differential equations (ODE) via applicable similarity variables. A numerical solution is developed with the efficient Runge–Kutta–Fehlberg (RKF) technique with a shooting numerical method, in MATLAB software using the RKF-45 method. The graphical profiles were represented to examine the impacts of physically parameterics on the important physical stream features. Streamline and isotherm plots are also included for thermal buoyancy effect (Grashof number).Validation of solutions with earlier simpler models is included. A relatively well agreement is achived between model prediction and the benchmark value. Values for skin friction factor, Nusselt number and Sherwood numbers are also tabulated to quantify momentum, heat and mass (species) transfer characteristics at the sensor surface. The results indicate that the significant depletion in temperature accompanies accumulation in magnetization and thermal stratification parameters. Significant accumulation in mixed convection and Riga plate electrode width parameter enhance the concatenation profiles. Nusselt number grows substantially as thermal stratification and radiative parameter increases. Sherwood number grows substantially as solutal stratification, thermophoresis and Schmidt parameter increases. The present study generalizes previous models to include simultaneously exponential stretching, thermophoresis, thermal and solutal (mass) stratification and heat source/sink effects.

Weak future Hadley cell intensity changes due to compensating effects of tropical and extratropical radiative forcing

Weak future Hadley cell intensity changes due to compensating effects of tropical and extratropical radiative forcing

Does Disabling Cloud Radiative Feedbacks Change Spatial Patterns of Surface Greenhouse Warming and Cooling?

AbstractThe processes controlling idealized warming and cooling patterns are examined in 150-yr-long fully coupled Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1), experiments under abrupt CO2forcing. By simulation end, 2 × CO2global warming was 20% larger than 0.5 × CO2global cooling. Not only was the absolute global effective radiative forcing ∼10% larger for 2 × CO2than for 0.5 × CO2, global feedbacks were also less negative for 2 × CO2than for 0.5 × CO2. Specifically, more positive shortwave cloud feedbacks led to more 2 × CO2global warming than 0.5 × CO2global cooling. Over high-latitude oceans, differences between 2 × CO2warming and 0.5 × CO2cooling were amplified by familiar linked positive surface albedo and lapse rate feedbacks associated with sea ice change. At low latitudes, 2 × CO2warming exceeded 0.5 × CO2cooling almost everywhere. Tropical Pacific cloud feedbacks amplified the following: 1) more fast warming than fast cooling in the west, and 2) slow pattern differences between 2 × CO2warming and 0.5 × CO2cooling in the east. Motivated to quantify cloud influence, a companion suite of experiments was run without cloud radiative feedbacks. Disabling cloud radiative feedbacks reduced the effective radiative forcing and surface temperature responses for both 2 × CO2and 0.5 × CO2. Notably, 20% more global warming than global cooling occurred regardless of whether cloud feedbacks were enabled or disabled. This surprising consistency resulted from the cloud influence on non-cloud feedbacks and circulation. With the exception of the tropical Pacific, disabling cloud feedbacks did little to change surface temperature response patterns including the large high-latitude responses driven by non-cloud feedbacks. The findings provide new insights into the regional processes controlling the response to greenhouse gas forcing, especially for clouds.Significance StatementWe analyze the processing controlling idealized warming and cooling under abrupt CO2forcing using a modern and highly vetted fully coupled climate model. We were especially interested to compare simulations with and without cloud radiative feedbacks. Notably, 20% more global warming than global cooling occurred regardless of whether cloud feedbacks were enabled or disabled. This surprising consistency resulted from the cloud influence on forcing, non-cloud feedbacks, and circulation. With the exception of the tropical Pacific, disabling cloud feedbacks did little to change surface temperature response patterns including the large high-latitude responses driven by non-cloud feedbacks. The findings provide new insights into the regional processes controlling the response to greenhouse gas forcing, especially for clouds. When combined with estimates of cooling at the Last Glacial Maximum, the findings also help rule out large (4+ K) values of equilibrium climate sensitivity.

Differences in East Asian summer monsoon responses to Asian aerosol forcing under different emission inventories

Opposite anthropogenic aerosol emission trends in Asia can lead to different responses of the climate. Here, we examined the responses of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) to changes in Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions during 2006–2014 using a global aerosol/atmospheric chemistry–climate coupled model (BCC_AGCM2.0_CUACE/Aero) with two sets of emission inventories: the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS) inventory adopted by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and the inventory developed at Peking University (PKU). The changes in Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions during 2006–2014 between the two inventories were remarkably different, particularly in eastern China where completely opposite trends were observed (i.e., increase in the CEDS inventory, but significant reduction in the PKU inventory). The perturbation simulations with the Asian anthropogenic aerosol forcing from the two inventories showed opposite changes in aerosol optical depth, aerosol effective radiative forcing, cloud liquid water path, and total cloud cover in eastern China. The simulated ‘dipole-type’ changes (i.e., increase in India but decrease in China) in Asian aerosols and the resulting changes in local radiation budget under the PKU inventory were consistent with the corresponding observations. The summer surface temperatures over eastern China decreased by 0–0.4 K because of the Asian anthropogenic aerosol forcing under the CEDS inventory, while they increased by 0.1–0.8 K under the PKU inventory. The weakening of the EASM index caused by the Asian aerosol forcing under the PKU inventory was twofold greater than that under the CEDS inventory (−0.4 vs. −0.2). The Asian ‘dipole-type’ aerosol forcing contributed to the observed summer ‘southern drought and northern flood’ phenomenon in eastern China during 2006–2014. The slow ocean-mediated response to the regional ‘dipole-type’ aerosol forcing dominated the weakening of the EASM circulation and the precipitation changes in eastern China in the total response. This study further confirms that the biases in anthropogenic aerosol emissions over Asia can affect the CMIP6-based regional climate attribution.

Brown carbon from biomass burning imposes strong circum-Arctic warming

Brown carbon from biomass burning imposes strong circum-Arctic warming

Sulfur emissions from consumption by developed and developing countries produce comparable climate impacts

Regional consumption activities supported by domestic production and international trade have led to substantial aerosol-related emissions worldwide. Here we quantify sulfur dioxide emissions associated with consumption by developed and developing countries and assess the resulting climate impacts using an Earth system model. We find that although the consumption-associated emissions of developed countries are 40% less than those of developing countries, they lead to similar impacts on global mean surface air temperature and precipitation. This is because the effective radiative forcing induced per emission is greater for developed countries, which we attribute to the emissions being located at higher northern latitudes and being more evenly distributed zonally. Emissions from developing countries have a greater impact on temperature and precipitation over the tropical monsoon regions of China and India. Our results demonstrate the importance of trade and emission region in determining how consumption translates into global climate impact. Sulfur dioxide emissions due to consumption by developed and developing countries differ in magnitude but produce comparable climate impacts due to the regional distribution of emissions, according to simulations using an Earth system model.

On the Correspondence Between Atmosphere‐Only and Coupled Simulations for Radiative Feedbacks and Forcing From CO2

AbstractAtmosphere‐only experiments are widely used to investigate climate feedbacks simulated in more computationally expensive fully coupled global climate model simulations. We confirm that this remains a valid approach by comparing the radiative feedbacks and forcing between coupled and atmosphere‐only simulations for the latest models taking part in the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). For global‐mean cloud feedbacks, we find a better than previously known correspondence between these experiments, which applies even to the response of individual cloud properties (amount, altitude, and optical depth) and holds even when considering atmosphere‐only simulations of only 1 yr duration. For regional cloud feedbacks, the correspondence between the two experiments is generally present at every geographic location except for the tropical Pacific but takes longer experiments to reveal. For the lapse rate and surface albedo feedbacks, the correspondence between the two experiments is weaker due to the non‐uniform warming pattern and loss of sea ice in the coupled experiment. For the across‐model relationship between 4xCO2 effective radiative forcing and feedback, we find a different behavior across experiments in CMIP6 than in CMIP5, casting doubt on the physical significance of previous results that highlighted an anti‐correlation between the two quantities. Overall, these results confirm the utility of atmosphere‐only experiments particularly to study cloud feedbacks, which are the dominant source of inter‐model spread in climate sensitivity.

Minimal CMIP Emulator (MCE v1.2): a new simplified method for probabilistic climate projections

Abstract. Climate model emulators have a crucial role in assessing warming levels of many emission scenarios from probabilistic climate projections based on new insights into Earth system response to CO2 and other forcing factors. This article describes one such tool, MCE, from model formulation to application examples associated with a recent model intercomparison study. The MCE is based on impulse response functions and parameterized physics of effective radiative forcing and carbon uptake over ocean and land. Perturbed model parameters for probabilistic projections are generated from statistical models and constrained with a Metropolis–Hastings independence sampler. Some of the model parameters associated with CO2-induced warming have a covariance structure, as diagnosed from complex climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Perturbed ensembles can cover the diversity of CMIP models effectively, and they can be constrained to agree with several climate indicators such as historical warming. The model's simplicity and resulting successful calibration imply that a method with less complicated structures and fewer control parameters offers advantages when building reasonable perturbed ensembles in a transparent way. Experimental results for future scenarios show distinct differences between CMIP-consistent and observation-consistent ensembles, suggesting that perturbed ensembles for scenario assessment need to be properly constrained with new insights into forced response over historical periods.

Influence of organic aerosol molecular composition on particle absorptive properties in autumn Beijing

Abstract. Organic aerosol (OA) is a major component of fine particulate matter (PM), affecting air quality, human health, and the climate. The absorptive and reflective behavior of OA components contributes to determining particle optical properties and thus their effects on the radiative budget of the troposphere. There is limited knowledge on the influence of the molecular composition of OA on particle optical properties in the polluted urban environment. In this study, we characterized the molecular composition of oxygenated OA collected on filter samples in the autumn of 2018 in Beijing, China, with a filter inlet for gases and aerosols coupled to a high-resolution time-of-flight chemical ionization mass spectrometer (FIGAERO–CIMS). Three haze episodes occurred during our sampling period with daily maximum concentrations of OA of 50, 30, and 55 µg m−3. We found that the signal intensities of dicarboxylic acids and sulfur-containing compounds increased during the two more intense haze episodes, while the relative contributions of wood-burning markers and other aromatic compounds were enhanced during the cleaner periods. We further assessed the optical properties of oxygenated OA components by combining detailed chemical composition measurements with collocated particle light absorption measurements. We show that light absorption enhancement (Eabs) of black carbon (BC) was mostly related to more oxygenated OA (e.g., dicarboxylic acids), likely formed in aqueous-phase reactions during the intense haze periods with higher relative humidity, and speculate that they might contribute to lensing effects. Aromatics and nitro-aromatics (e.g., nitrocatechol and its derivatives) were mostly related to a high light absorption coefficient (babs) consistent with light-absorbing (brown) carbon (BrC). Our results provide information on oxygenated OA components at the molecular level associated with BrC and BC particle light absorption and can serve as a basis for further studies on the effects of anthropogenic OA on radiative forcing in the urban environment.