Effective Radiative Forcings Due To Anthropogenic Emission Changes Under Covid-19 and Post-Pandemic Recovery Scenarios.

Abstract

With the continuation of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (Covid‐19) pandemic, the impacts of this catastrophe on anthropogenic emissions are no longer limited to its early stage. This study quantitatively estimates effective radiative forcings (ERFs) due to anthropogenic well‐mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs) and aerosols for the period 2020–2050 under the three latest Covid‐19 economic‐recovery scenarios using an aerosol‐climate model. The results indicate that reductions in both WMGHG and aerosol emissions under the Covid‐19 green recoveries lead to increases ranging from 0 to 0.3 W m−2 in global annual mean anthropogenic ERF over the period 2020–2050 relative to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2‐4.5 scenario (the baseline case). These positive ERFs are mainly attributed to the rapid and dramatic decreases in atmospheric aerosol content that increase net shortwave radiative flux at the top of atmosphere via weakening the direct aerosol effect and low cloud cover. At the regional scale, reductions in aerosols contribute to positive ERFs throughout the Northern Hemisphere, while the decreased WMGHGs dominate negative ERFs over the areas away from aerosol pollution, such as the Southern Hemisphere oceans. This drives a strong interhemispheric contrast of ERFs. In contrast, the increased anthropogenic emissions under the fossil‐fueled recovery scenario lead to an increase of 0.3 W m−2 in global annual mean ERF in 2050 compared with the baseline case, primarily due to the contribution of WMGHG ERFs. The regional ERF changes are highly dependent on local cloud radiative effects.