The COVID-19 pandemic, spanning nearly two years, instigated a worldwide lockdown, resulting in a notable decline in pollution levels across numerous urban centers. This investigation leveraged satellite data to scrutinize alterations in air quality pre and post the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on the Isfahan region in central Iran and Fars province in the south. We assessed vegetation conditions employing remote sensing indices, including the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and Normalized Difference Built-Up Index (NDBI). Additionally, we evaluated thermal pollution in urban environments using indices such as Land Surface Temperature (LST), Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI), and Urban Thermal Features Vegetation Index (UTFVI). Linear regression analysis revealed significant correlations between LST and pollutants, with SO2 (R2 = 0.983), NO2 (R2 = 0.824), CO2 (0.808), and CO (R2 = 0.710) exhibiting strong associations. Pollution maps for CO2, CH4, CO, NO2, O3, and SO2 were generated for the pre-COVID-19 (2019) and COVID-19 (2020) periods, highlighting reduced pollution levels during the pandemic due to decreased industrial activities and vehicle traffic. We employed Markov and Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov methods to predict future LST trends, using probability matrices as input data. The CA-Markov chain results forecasted an increase in LST in 2040. Additionally, we compared Radial Basis Function (RBF) and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) neural network methods. Our investigation found that MLP outperforms RBF, with optimal neuron counts in the hidden layers varying by index. MLP demonstrated higher accuracy, with R2 values of 0.98 for SUHI, 0.93 for UTFVI, 0.98 for CO, and 0.99 for O3, and lower RMSE. In conclusion, our study, focused on Isfahan and Fars province in Iran, reveals that the reduction in urban air pollution during the COVID-19 pandemic primarily resulted from diminished industrial activities and reduced vehicular traffic. MLP neural networks displayed superior performance in predicting index values, highlighting the role of reduced human activities on urban environmental quality.
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