Dog Rabies Cases Research Articles

Spatiotemporal patterns of rabid dogs and cats and the opinions of personnel responsible for disease control in Thailand

The aim of this study was to evaluate the patterns of rabies cases in dogs and cats in Thailand from 2013 to 2016 via spatiotemporal analysis. We also assessed the opinions of responsible district-level personnel regarding risk factors and control measures for rabies. Evaluation of rabies case patterns was based on secondary data from a national online database, and a structured questionnaire was used to obtain the opinions of district-level personnel. A total of 1202 cases (1202/13058, 9.21 %) of rabid dogs and cats were documented between 2013 and 2016, with the majority of cases involving dogs (1165/13058; 8.92 %). The spatiotemporal analysis indicated that most of the cases were recorded in central Thailand and that there was a general trend of an increase in rabies cases from the beginning of 2013 to the end of 2016. Month-by-month analysis for each year suggested that the number of rabies cases tended to increase over the course of the year in 2013 and 2016. Results from the autocorrelation indicated that the correlation coefficient tended to be similar in adjacent time lags. In terms of the opinion analysis, only one factor (i.e., the presence of a forest that served as a habitat for carrier animals in the district) was statistically significant (P < 0.05) in the final binary logistic regression model. The results of this study may facilitate planning for effective rabies control in Thailand.

A passive ‘One Health’ surveillance system to track canine rabies in urban India

Abstract Robust and widely implementable ‘One Health’ surveillance systems are required to detect and control the spread of zoonotic infectious diseases. Using technological tools coupled with a rapid field response and rapid diagnostics can help in the surveillance of deadly diseases such as rabies, even in densely populated urban areas. Here, we describe the use of an animal rescue system (Hawk Data Pro) that was adapted as a passive surveillance tool for rabies in a large metropolis in India. We used a Webline and helpline that reported injured or sick animals to an animal rescue facility to determine possible rabies cases in street animals in Pune city in western India. Suspected rabid animals were tested using lateral flow assays and this information was used to direct awareness materials on rabies as well as in conducting mass dog vaccinations in areas that reported multiple cases. Over a ~4-year period, we received over 90,700 calls or reports, of which 1162 calls were for suspected rabies cases in dogs, and 6 for other animals (cats, goats and cattle). Of these, 749 dogs and 4 other animals tested positive for rabies. Most of the cases were reported from the densely human-populated central Pune region. In response, ~21,000 people were provided with educational materials on post-bite management, and ~23,000 dogs were vaccinated. We show that the adoption of the Hawk Data Pro system as a passive surveillance tool allowed us to document an ongoing outbreak of rabies in a large metropolis in India. Such systems can be modified or adapted to other areas as well to meet the surveillance and reporting requirements of the WHO’s Zeroby30 strategy to eliminate rabies globally. One Health impact statement India is a priority country for the action plan for rabies elimination by 2030. Yet, systematic surveillance for rabies in the primary reservoir remains weak. Here, we showcase a collaboration with an animal welfare organization and adaptation of their bespoke animal rescue system for passive surveillance of rabies in dogs and other animals in Pune city in western India. This method allowed us to improve the detection of potentially rabid animals, rapidly ensure post-exposure prophylaxis and provide awareness materials for exposed human victims. To the best of our knowledge, this collaboration between scientists and civil society organizations resulted in the detection of the largest number of rabies cases reported in an urban area anywhere in the world. The use of this system highlights the scope of the problem in urban India and also provides practical guidance on how to improve surveillance using basic technological tools.

Impact Assessment of Free-Roaming Dog Population Management by CNVR in Greater Bangkok.

A high-intensity catch, neuter, vaccinate and return (CNVR) intervention was used over 5 years to manage the free-roaming dog population of Greater Bangkok, using nearly 300,000 CNVR operations across six provinces. An evaluation was conducted using multiple methods to assess the impact of this intervention, including clinical data, an observational street survey, an online attitude survey and reported cases of dog rabies confirmed with laboratory testing. The evaluation found evidence of a reduction in free-roaming dog density over time (24.7% reduction over 5 years), a reduction in dog rabies cases (average reduction of 5.7% rabies cases per month) and an improvement in dog-human relationships (a 39% increase per year in free-roaming dogs with visible signs of ownership or care and a perception of less trouble with free-roaming dogs in districts benefiting from CNVR). The CNVR intervention appears to have been effective at reducing the current free-roaming dog population and minimizing one future source of free-roaming dogs by limiting breeding of dogs accessible on the streets. However, there is evidence that other sources of free-roaming dogs exist, presumed to be predominately abandoned or lost owned dogs that were previously inaccessible to the CNVR intervention because they were ordinarily confined or living outside the project area. Hence, fully effective dog population management will require further interventions targeting owned dogs in addition to this CNVR effort.

Understanding the incidence and timing of rabies cases in domestic animals and wildlife in south-east Tanzania in the presence of widespread domestic dog vaccination campaigns

The “Zero by 30” strategic plan aims to eliminate human deaths from dog-mediated rabies by 2030 and domestic dog vaccination is a vital component of this strategic plan. In areas where domestic dog vaccination has been implemented, it is important to assess the impact of this intervention. Additionally, understanding temporal and seasonal trends in the incidence of animal rabies cases may assist in optimizing such interventions. Data on the incidence of probable rabies cases in domestic and wild animals were collected between January 2011 and December 2018 in thirteen districts of south-east Tanzania where jackals comprise over 40% of reported rabies cases. Vaccination coverage was estimated over this period, as five domestic dog vaccination campaigns took place in all thirteen districts between 2011 and 2016. Negative binomial generalized linear models were used to explore the impact of domestic dog vaccination on the annual incidence of animal rabies cases, whilst generalized additive models were used to investigate the presence of temporal and/or seasonal trends. Increases in domestic dog vaccination coverage were significantly associated with a decreased incidence of rabies cases in both domestic dogs and jackals. A 35% increase in vaccination coverage was associated with a reduction in the incidence of probable dog rabies cases of between 78.0 and 85.5% (95% confidence intervals ranged from 61.2 to 92.2%) and a reduction in the incidence of probable jackal rabies cases of between 75.3 and 91.2% (95% confidence intervals ranged from 53.0 to 96.1%). A statistically significant common seasonality was identified in the monthly incidence of probable rabies cases in both domestic dogs and jackals with the highest incidence from February to August and lowest incidence from September to January. These results align with evidence supporting the use of domestic dog vaccination as part of control strategies aimed at reducing animal rabies cases in both domestic dogs and jackals in this region. The presence of a common seasonal trend requires further investigation but may have implications for the timing of future vaccination campaigns.

The final stages of dog rabies elimination from Japan.

Rabies is a lethal zoonotic disease mainly transmitted to humans by dog bites. The purpose of this study was to assess the efficacy of rabies control policies in Japan, which resulted in the elimination of the disease from the country in 1957. Using historical records from the Kanto region (Chiba, Kanagawa, Saitama and Tokyo Prefectures) between 1947 and 1956 where the final canine cases were recorded, we undertook a descriptive epidemiological study, applying spatio-temporal scan statistics using SaTScan and estimating the effective reproduction number (Rt ) for the clusters and each prefecture using the growth rates. There were 1,567 dog rabies and 161 human rabies cases recorded during this period. Vaccination coverage in registered dogs was over 70% after 1951, with much lower coverage in free-roaming and unregistered dogs. Eight clusters of dog rabies cases were identified: the first appeared in 1947 in Tokyo and was linked to three further clusters in peripheral prefectures between 1947 and 1951. Three more clusters occurred in Tokyo again between 1952 and 1954, and the last cluster was in Tokyo and Kanagawa between 1955 and 1956. Rt in the first cluster was 1.68, and Rt values in the others ranged between 1.18 and 1.86, with an exception of 4.05 in the smallest cluster in Tokyo in 1952 (10 cases). The moving average of Rt coincided with the clusters. As dog vaccination and dog management progressed, and the number of dog rabies cases declined, the moving average of Rt declined to below 1. Delays in the implementation of dog management policies in Kanagawa may have prolonged this last outbreak. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of coordinated control policy involving dog vaccination and management of free-roaming dog populations for rabies elimination.

Spatio-temporal epidemiology of animal and human rabies in northern South Africa between 1998 and 2017

BackgroundRabies is a fatal zoonotic disease that is maintained in domestic dogs and wildlife populations in the Republic of South Africa. A retrospective study was conducted to improve understanding of the dynamics of rabies in humans, domestic dogs, and wildlife species, in relation to the ecology for three northern provinces of South Africa (Limpopo, Mpumalanga, and North-West) between 1998 and 2017.MethodsA descriptive epidemiology study was conducted for human and animal rabies. Dog rabies cases were analyzed using spatio-temporal scan statistics. The reproductive number (Rt) was estimated for the identified disease clusters. A phylogenetic tree was constructed based on the genome sequences of rabies viruses isolated from dogs, jackals, and an African civet, and Bayesian evolutionary analysis using a strict time clock model. Several ecological and socio-economic variables associated with dog rabies were modeled using univariate analyses with zero-inflated negative binomial regression and multivariable spatial analyses using the integrated nested Laplace approximation for two time periods: 1998–2002 and 2008–2012.ResultsHuman rabies cases increased in 2006 following an increase in dog rabies cases; however, the human cases declined in the next year while dog rabies cases fluctuated. Ten disease clusters of dog rabies were identified, and utilizing the phylogenetic tree, the dynamics of animal rabies over 20 years was elucidated. In 2006, a virus strain that re-emerged in eastern Limpopo Province caused the large and persistent dog rabies outbreaks in Limpopo and Mpumalanga Provinces. Several clusters included a rabies virus variant maintained in jackals in Limpopo Province, and the other variant in dogs widely distributed. The widely distributed variant maintained in jackal populations in North-West Province caused an outbreak in dogs in 2014. The Rt was high when the disease clusters were associated with either multiple virus strains or multiple animal species. High-risk areas included Limpopo and Mpumalanga Provinces characterized by woodlands and high temperatures and precipitation.ConclusionCanine rabies was maintained mainly in dog populations but was also associated with jackal species. Rural communities in Limpopo and Mpumalanga Provinces were at high risk of canine rabies originating from dogs.

The Probability of Rabies Entry to Norway through Dogs, Cats and Wild Fauna

The Norwegian Scientific Committee for Food Safety was asked by the Norwegian Food Safety Authority (Mattilsynet) to evaluate the probability of introduction of rabies to Norway through:&#x0D; &#x0D; The importation of young dogs and cats under the present regulations;&#x0D; The importation of young dogs and cats if the regulations are changed to allow importation of unvaccinated animals younger than three months from certain EEA countries;&#x0D; The importation of dogs and cats from an EEA country when the animals are both identified, vaccinated and have valid serology tests;&#x0D; The free passage of wild animals across the Norwegian border?&#x0D; &#x0D; The first three questions were answered by a quantitative approach using a simulation model. The EEA countries were classified into 4 groups based on the estimated prevalence of rabies in dogs and cats, with the estimate increasing from Group 1 to Group 4. He estimates for the prevalence of rabies were based upon the number of reported cases of rabies in dogs and cats for the years 2003-2004 and corrected for possible underreporting.&#x0D; Group 1 – No rabies cases reported during the last two years (except in bats), AND negligible probability of importation of rabies cases from close areas: Cyprus, Iceland, Ireland, UK, Sweden, Denmark, (Norway).&#x0D; Group 2 – No rabies cases reported during the last two years (except in bats or in imported animals), but non-negligible probability of importation of from close areas: Italy, France, Spain, Greece, Portugal, Belgium, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Finland and Malta.&#x0D; Group 3 – Low-prevalence endemic area, with few rabies cases reported: Germany, Austria, Slovenia, and Czech Republic.&#x0D; Group 4 – Large number of rabies cases reported in domestic and wild animals: Slovak Republic, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Hungary.&#x0D; Any significant change in the prevalence of rabies in exporting countries will cause a change in the probability of introduction of rabies to importing countries, Therefore, continuous surveillance of rabies is necessary and the probability of the introduction of rabies should be re-evaluated if significant changes in the prevalence of rabies occur in exporting countries.&#x0D; The number of imported cats and dogs is important for assessing the probability of introducing rabies. In this report, three scenarios based upon three different numbers of imported cats and dogs from each of the different groups of countries have been considered (100, 1000 or 10 000).&#x0D; Provided that the current rabies situation in the different group of countries remained constant, it was estimated that with an annual importation of 10 000 vaccinated and tested dogs and cats from countries in Group 3, this would, on average, cause the importation of one rabies infected animal approximately every 11 000 years. With similar importation scenarios from countries in Group 1 and 2, the number of years between every estimated imported case of rabies would be even higher. By annual importation of 10 000 vaccinated and tested dogs/cats from countries in Group 4, it was estimated that on average one rabies infected animal would be imported every 58 years with a 95% confidence interval of 16-194 years.&#x0D; With an annual importation of 10 000 unvaccinated dogs and cats younger than three months from countries in Group 3, it was estimated that this would, on average, cause the importation of one rabies infected animal every 2 000 years. With similar importation scenarios from the countries in Groups 1 and 2, the number of years between every estimated rabies import would be even higher. With an annual importation of 10 000 unvaccinated dogs and cats younger than three months from countries in Group 4, it was estimated that, on average, one rabies infected animal would be imported every 21 years with a 95% confidence interval of 11-35 years.&#x0D; By reducing the number imported in each category to 1000 or 100, the number of years would increase by a factor of 10 or 100, respectively, for each group.&#x0D; The probability of introducing rabies to Norway via wild fauna is most likely low. There are two different ways that rabies could be introduced by wildlife; either by migrating carnivores or through bats. Migration of wild carnivores (in the context red fox, raccoon dog, wolf and Arctic fox) is buffered by the geographical separation of Norway from the epidemic areas. The probability of introduction of rabies to Norway through bats is unknown and could be higher than through wild carnivores.

Descriptive study of cattle and dog rabies cases in the Sheki-Zagatala region of Azerbaijan (2015–2016): Knowledge, attitudes, and practices of people towards rabies

Every year, rabies causes great damage to human health and the economy of countries around the world. This neurotropic and zoonotic viral disease is endemic to Azerbaijan. This study describes cattle and dog rabies cases identified between 2015 and 2016. In addition, a questionnaire was administered to 100 respondents comprised of case owners, and non-case animal owners, to assess knowledge, attitudes, and practices within this population. The study demonstrates a general lack of knowledge of rabies in the participating communities. The majority of respondents were familiar with rabies and understood that animal bites are a source of transmission. However, many respondents did not know that rabies is preventable and admitted not knowing additional routes of transmission. In addition, there was less perceived risk with contact with animal saliva. Despite free vaccinations in Azerbaijan, only 27 out of 45 dogs in this study were vaccinated. Although educational programming and preventive vaccination of dogs has been implemented, and significant progress has been made in the sphere of epidemiological surveillance and prevention, rabies cases remain problematic in the Sheki-Zagatala region. Regular educational programs for communities, strengthening of the existing vaccination programs, and a comprehensive epidemiological case-control study to identify the disease risk factors could help reduce the burden of rabies in Azerbaijan.

Reservoir dynamics of rabies in south-east Tanzania and the roles of cross-species transmission and domestic dog vaccination.

Understanding the role of different species in the transmission of multi-host pathogens, such as rabies virus, is vital for effective control strategies. Across most of sub-Saharan Africa domestic dogs Canis familiaris are considered the reservoir for rabies, but the role of wildlife has been long debated. Here we explore the multi-host transmission dynamics of rabies across south-east Tanzania.Between January 2011 and July 2019, data on probable rabies cases were collected in the regions of Lindi and Mtwara. Hospital records of animal-bite patients presenting to healthcare facilities were used as sentinels for animal contact tracing. The timing, location and species of probable rabid animals were used to reconstruct transmission trees to infer who infected whom and the relative frequencies of within- and between-species transmission.During the study, 688 probable human rabies exposures were identified, resulting in 47 deaths. Of these exposures, 389 were from domestic dogs (56.5%) and 262 from jackals (38.1%). Over the same period, 549 probable animal rabies cases were traced: 303 in domestic dogs (55.2%) and 221 in jackals (40.3%), with the remainder in domestic cats and other wildlife species.Although dog-to-dog transmission was most commonly inferred (40.5% of transmission events), a third of inferred events involved wildlife-to-wildlife transmission (32.6%), and evidence suggested some sustained transmission chains within jackal populations.A steady decline in probable rabies cases in both humans and animals coincided with the implementation of widespread domestic dog vaccination during the first 6 years of the study. Following the lapse of this program, dog rabies cases began to increase in one of the northernmost districts. Synthesis and applications. In south-east Tanzania, despite a relatively high incidence of rabies in wildlife and evidence of wildlife-to-wildlife transmission, domestic dogs remain essential to the reservoir of infection. Continued dog vaccination alongside improved surveillance would allow a fuller understanding of the role of wildlife in maintaining transmission in this area. Nonetheless, dog vaccination clearly suppressed rabies in both domestic dog and wildlife populations, reducing both public health and conservation risks and, if sustained, has potential to eliminate rabies from this region.

Rabies epidemiology, prevention and control in Nigeria: Scoping progress towards elimination.

BackgroundHuman rabies remains a significant public health problem in Africa with outbreaks reported in most countries. In Nigeria–the most populous country in Africa–rabies causes a significant public health burden partly due to perennial obstacles to implementing a national prevention and control program.MethodsWe conducted a scoping review using standard Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines to identify and select published articles from Nigeria during 1978–2020 reporting on rabies virus infections (human, canine, livestock, and wildlife), canine bites, knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) surveys on rabies and canine ecology studies. We extracted information on study location, year and additional details of each study such as rabies prevalence, general characteristics of offending dogs, dog vaccination status and health-seeking behaviours.FindingsBetween 1978 and 2020, 90 published articles met our inclusion criteria. The prevalence of rabies virus antigen detection varied between 3% and 28%, with more studies in the north. Most bites were unprovoked from dog bite studies (36.4%-97%), by dogs with low vaccination rates (12–38%). A more significant proportion of biting dogs were owned (31–90%). Laboratory confirmation for biting was available for only a small proportion of studies (6%; n = 2/32). Of the dogs surveyed during ecology studies, indigenous dogs accounted for the majority (62–98%), used mostly for security purposes (52–98%), with the vaccination rate between 15% and 38% in most states. Studies conducted in areas distant from rabies diagnostic facilities accounted for more human rabies cases and fewer dog rabies cases.ConclusionSignificant improvements are necessary to achieve the elimination of human rabies mediated via dogs by 2030.

The urgency of resuming disrupted dog rabies vaccination campaigns: a modeling and cost-effectiveness analysis

Dog vaccination is a cost-effective approach to preventing human rabies deaths. In Haiti, the last nation-wide dog vaccination campaign occurred in 2018. We estimated the number of human lives that could be saved by resuming dog vaccination in 2021 compared to 2022 and compared the cost-effectiveness of these two scenarios. We modified a previously published rabies transmission and economic model to estimate trends in dog and human rabies cases in Haiti from 2005 to 2025, with varying assumptions about when dog vaccinations resume. We compared model outputs to surveillance data on human rabies deaths from 2005 to 2020 and animal rabies cases from 2018 to 2020. Model predictions and surveillance data both suggest a 5- to 8-fold increase in animal rabies cases occurred in Haiti’s capital city between Fall 2019 and Fall 2020. Restarting dog vaccination in Haiti in 2021 compared to 2022 could save 285 human lives and prevent 6541 human rabies exposures over a five-year period. It may also decrease program costs due to reduced need for human post-exposure prophylaxis. These results show that interruptions in dog vaccination campaigns before elimination is achieved can lead to significant human rabies epidemics if not promptly resumed.

Feline and Canine Rabies in New York State, USA.

In New York State, domestic animals are no longer considered rabies vector species, but given their ubiquity with humans, rabies cases in dogs and cats often result in multiple individuals requiring post-exposure prophylaxis. For over a decade, the New York State rabies laboratory has variant-typed these domestic animals to aid in epidemiological investigations, determine exposures, and generate demographic data. We produced a data set that outlined vaccination status, ownership, and rabies results. Our data demonstrate that a large percentage of felines submitted for rabies testing were not vaccinated or did not have a current rabies vaccination, while canines were largely vaccinated. Despite massive vaccination campaigns, free clinics, and education, these companion animals still occasionally contract rabies. Barring translocation events, we note that rabies-positive cats and dogs in New York State have exclusively contracted a raccoon variant. While the United States has made tremendous strides in reducing its rabies burden, we hope these data will encourage responsible pet ownership including rabies vaccinations to reduce unnecessary animal mortality, long quarantines, and post-exposure prophylaxis in humans.

Cost-effectiveness of the national dog rabies prevention and control program in Mexico, 1990-2015.

BackgroundRabies is a viral zoonosis that imposes a substantial disease and economic burden in many developing countries. Dogs are the primary source of rabies transmission; eliminating dog rabies reduces the risk of exposure in humans significantly. Through mass annual dog rabies vaccination campaigns, the national program of rabies control in Mexico progressively reduced rabies cases in dogs and humans since 1990. In 2019, the World Health Organization validated Mexico for eliminating rabies as a public health problem. Using a governmental perspective, we retrospectively assessed the economic costs, effectiveness, and cost-effectiveness of the national program of rabies control in Mexico, 1990–2015.MethodologyCombining various data sources, including administrative records, national statistics, and scientific literature, we retrospectively compared the current scenario of annual dog vaccination campaigns and post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) with a counterfactual scenario without an annual dog vaccination campaign but including PEP. The counterfactual scenario was estimated using a mathematical model of dog rabies transmission (RabiesEcon). We performed a thorough sensitivity analysis of the main results.Principal findingsResults suggest that in 1990 through 2015, the national dog rabies vaccination program in Mexico prevented about 13,000 human rabies deaths, at an incremental cost (MXN 2015) of $4,700 million (USD 300 million). We estimated an average cost of $360,000 (USD 23,000) per human rabies death averted, $6,500 (USD 410) per additional year-of-life, and $3,000 (USD 190) per dog rabies death averted. Results were robust to several counterfactual scenarios, including high and low rabies transmission scenarios and various assumptions about potential costs without mass dog rabies vaccination campaigns.ConclusionsAnnual dog rabies vaccination campaigns have eliminated the transmission of dog-to-dog rabies and dog-mediated human rabies deaths in Mexico. According to World Health Organization standards, our results show that the national program of rabies control in Mexico has been highly cost-effective.

Using geostatistics to better understand the epidemiology of animal rabies in Morocco: what is the contribution of the predictive value?

This study aims to characterize the spatial distribution of animal rabies in Morocco in order to provide appropriate control approaches. Descriptive analyses of the epidemiological data show that the number of reported canine rabies cases greatly underestimates the true incidence of the disease. Underreporting subsequently affects the coherence of its spatial distribution. To perform accurate geographic distribution mapping of the disease based on interpolation methods, a data set was created using data between 2000 and 2018 to compare the derived disease cases with known true values in order to identify disease clusters. The subsequent interpolation was conducted using Ordinary Kriging regression methods and the semi variogram to focus on short distances and reduce uncertainty. The estimated clusters of rabies were evaluated using a cross validation step which revealed predicted cases close to the true values. To improve the precision of analysis, the authors displayed georeferenced dog and human rabies cases reported during the last three years, demonstrating reliable results that correspond to the estimated cluster areas similar to the true disease incidence on the field. This work highlights a strong correlation between infrastructure projects (i.e. railways, roads, facilities) and rabies epizootics for several specific locations. This study is the first attempt to use geostatistics to build upon the understanding of animal rabies in Morocco and shed light on the most appropriate strategies to sustainably reduce and mitigate the risk of rabies. There has been little literature on the use of kriging methods in animal health research. Thus, this study also aimed to explore a novel method in the veterinary sciences to establish kriging as a valid and coherent analysis tool to identify the extent to which the geostatistic area can objectively support understanding on animal rabies and saw it as being highly instrumental in coping with gaps in the data.

Evaluation of the Worldwide Occurrence of Rabies in Dogs and Cats Using a Simple and Homogenous Framework for Quantitative Risk Assessments of Rabies Reintroduction in Disease-Free Areas through Pet Movements.

Dog and cat rabies cases imported from rabies enzootic countries represent a major threat for areas that have acquired rabies-free status and quantitative risk analyses (QRAs) are developed in order to assess this risk of rabies reintroduction through dog and cat movements. Herein we describe a framework to evaluate dog and cat rabies incidence levels in exporting countries along with the associated uncertainty for such QRAs. For enzootic dog rabies areas (EDRAs), we extended and adapted a previously published method to specify the relationship between dog rabies vaccination coverage and canine rabies incidence; the relationship between dog and cat rabies incidences; and then to predict annual dog and cat rabies incidences. In non-enzootic dog rabies areas (nEDRAs), we provided annual incidence based on declared dog and cat rabies cases. For EDRAs, we predicted an annual incidence potentially greater than 1.5% in dogs and about ten times lower in cats with a high burden in Africa and Asia but much lower in Latin America. In nEDRAs, the occurrence of rabies was lower and of similar magnitude in dogs and cats. However, wildlife could still potentially infect dogs and cats through spillover events. This framework can directly be incorporated in QRAs of rabies reintroduction.

THE PROTECTIVENESS OF DOGS AND CATS POST RABIES VACCINATION IN BANJARBARU, INDONESIA

A sudden increase of rabies cases in proprietary cats and dogs in Banjarbaru has been identified in recent years. We aim to identify the effectiveness of dog and cat rabies vaccinations in Banjarbaru and to determine the risk factors that influence it. Determination of sample size using the Epitools.ausvet calculation method obtained 153 dogs and cats post vaccination randomly. The ELISA method was used to determine the protective antibody titer of samples (≥0.5 IU/ml) against rabies. Other primary data used to determine risk factors that affect the level of protection against rabies in dogs and cats were obtained from interviews with respondents. The results of the ELISA test and interview data from respondents were analyzed using IBM SPSS Statistics 21. Linear regression analysis showed that the type of vaccine A (OR = 19.03), age (OR = 7.52) and frequency of vaccination (OR = 2.52) significantly affected protective antibody titers. Unweighted logistic regression analysis showed the factor associated together with the protectiveness is the frequency of vaccination (OR = 2.52). The protectiveness dog and cat against rabies is very low based on the constant value in linear regression of 0.17 IU / ml and logistic regression of 2.5 x 10-10%. Risk factors that affect the protectiveness of dog and cats against rabies are age (&gt;1 years), type of vaccine (vaccine A) and frequency of vaccination (&gt;1time). Repetition of vaccination is a priority action in increasing the effectiveness of vaccination.

The Spread of Rabies Among Dogs in Pranburi District, Thailand: A Metapopulation Modeling Approach

Rabies, a deadly zoonotic disease, is causing serious public health problems worldwide. Dogs are considered the main reservoir for rabies infection in humans. A better understanding of the dissemination of rabies in the dog population is crucial. The present study, therefore, aimed to explore the subpopulation of dogs roaming around rabies-outbreak areas and the model of its possible spread. We used a Cross-K function to investigate the spatial clustering between the locations of dog rabies cases and the feeding points of a stray dog feeder. We then observed the social interaction of dogs in a community using a metapopulation analysis and further simulated the possible spread of rabies within this population. We found that the reported rabies cases were spatially clustered with the routes of the dog feeder. Therefore, more sustainable stray dog management is required. Based on our community dog observations, we found 20 groups comprising 222 dogs with an average of 11 dogs per group. In our infectious model, we suggested that 47.7% of dogs are likely to be infected in a year if no interventions are implemented. Therefore, the veterinary authorities should rigorously strengthen their rabies prevention and control strategies to protect both animal and human health.

Lessons learnt from measures taken to prevent rabies introduction and spread into a long rabies free territory (case study of the Irkutsk Oblast)

Rabies is endemic on the considerable part of the Russian Federation, and it is associated with current natural outbreaks of the infection. The highest animal morbidity rates are reported in the central and southern regions of the European part of Russia and in the southern part of Western Siberia. The Irkutsk Oblast is among the few regions of our country, which are rabies free for several decades. The research was aimed at the analysis of factors aiding to the maintenance of the rabies free status of the region. Retrospective study of archive and previously published reports on human and animal rabies cases in the Irkutsk Oblast starting from 1954 was performed. Epidemics of urban rabies ceased in the region in 1970s. Sporadic rabies cases in dogs, reported in 1976 and later, could be imported or could result from the infection from bats. Diagnostic errors were also possible. Rabies is reported in foxes in the Subjects bordering the Irkutsk Oblast: Krasnoyarsk Krai and Republic of Buryatia. It is supposed that in case of the infection introduction the forest-steppe agricultural areas near the Angara River are likely to be affected due to high population of foxes. Relative geographic isolation of the Irkutsk Oblast favors to the long animal rabies freedom of this territory. The vast area of mountain taiga with low fox population serves as an ecological barrier. In 2007–2009 and in 2019, barrier oral vaccination was carried out along the border with the Krasnoyarsk Krai and on the west coast of Baikal Lake. Measures for anti-rabies vaccination of dogs and cats were intensified. Active virological monitoring is performed on a regular basis. The paper demonstrates cartograms of fox and wolf population density along with designation of sites, where oral vaccination of wild carnivores was performed.

Epidemiology of human rabies in South Africa, 2008 - 2018.

Human rabies cases continue to be reported annually in South Africa (SA). Previous investigations have shown the association between the occurrence of human rabies cases and dog rabies cases in the country. To describe the epidemiology of laboratory-confirmed human rabies cases in SA for the period 2008 - 2018. A retrospective document review of laboratory-confirmed human rabies cases for the period 2008 - 2018 was performed using a case register and related documentation available from the National Institute for Communicable Diseases. A total of 105 human rabies cases were laboratory confirmed from 2008 to 2018, with cases reported from all the provinces of SA except the Western Cape. Children and adolescents were most affected by the disease during the study period. In almost half of the cases, medical intervention was not sought after exposure. When victims did seek healthcare, deviations from post-exposure prophylaxis protocols were reported in some cases. The epidemiological trends of human rabies cases reported in SA for the period 2008 - 2018 remained largely the same as in previous reports. Dog-mediated rabies remains the main source of human rabies in SA.

Evaluating the role of surgical sterilisation in canine rabies control: A systematic review of impact and outcomes.

Current recommendations for the elimination of canine-mediated human rabies focus on mass dog vaccination as the most feasible and cost-effective strategy. However, attempts to control rabies are often combined with canine surgical sterilisation programmes. The added value of sterilisation is widely debated. A systematic review was undertaken to compare the outcomes and impact of vaccination and sterilisation programmes with vaccination only programmes. A systematic search of three electronic databases (CAB s, Medline and Global Health) and grey literature was performed. From 8696 abstracts found, 5554 unique studies were identified, and 16 studies met the inclusion criteria. Eight described vaccination only programmes and eight described vaccination and sterilisation programmes. Indicators of impact measured were dog bites and/or doses of post-exposure prophylaxis administered; numbers of dog and/or human rabies cases; dog population demographic changes; changes in health and welfare of dogs, and indicators related to human behaviour change. The studies were contextually very diverse, programmes being implemented were complex, and there was variation in measurement and reporting of key indicators. Therefore, it was difficult to compare the two types of intervention, and impossible to make an evaluation of the role of sterilisation, using this evidence. Given the large number of vaccination and sterilisation programmes conducted globally, the lack of studies available for review highlights a gap in data collection or reporting, essential for impact assessment. There are several knowledge gaps concerning the impact of the sterilisation component alone, as well as subsequent effects on rabies transmission and control. Prospective studies comparing the outcomes and impact of the two interventions would be required in order to establish any additional contribution of sterilisation, as well as the underlying mechanisms driving any changes. In the absence of such evidence, the priority for rabies control objectives should be implementation of mass vaccination, as currently recommended by the World Health Organisation.