Evaluation of the Worldwide Occurrence of Rabies in Dogs and Cats Using a Simple and Homogenous Framework for Quantitative Risk Assessments of Rabies Reintroduction in Disease-Free Areas through Pet Movements.

Guillaume Crozet,Barbara Dufour,Florence Cliquet,Laetitia Canini,Emmanuelle Robardet,Julie Rivière

doi:10.3390/vetsci7040207

Abstract

Dog and cat rabies cases imported from rabies enzootic countries represent a major threat for areas that have acquired rabies-free status and quantitative risk analyses (QRAs) are developed in order to assess this risk of rabies reintroduction through dog and cat movements. Herein we describe a framework to evaluate dog and cat rabies incidence levels in exporting countries along with the associated uncertainty for such QRAs. For enzootic dog rabies areas (EDRAs), we extended and adapted a previously published method to specify the relationship between dog rabies vaccination coverage and canine rabies incidence; the relationship between dog and cat rabies incidences; and then to predict annual dog and cat rabies incidences. In non-enzootic dog rabies areas (nEDRAs), we provided annual incidence based on declared dog and cat rabies cases. For EDRAs, we predicted an annual incidence potentially greater than 1.5% in dogs and about ten times lower in cats with a high burden in Africa and Asia but much lower in Latin America. In nEDRAs, the occurrence of rabies was lower and of similar magnitude in dogs and cats. However, wildlife could still potentially infect dogs and cats through spillover events. This framework can directly be incorporated in QRAs of rabies reintroduction.

Highlights

Rabies is a major and widespread zoonosis with a case-fatality rate of 100%, that causes approximately60,000 human deaths each year [1]
The method used for enzootic dog rabies areas (EDRAs) is well suited for homogeneously evaluating annual dog and cat rabies incidences as it ignores discrepancies between countries in animal rabies surveillance and case reporting when using national surveillance reports [21]
In non-enzootic dog rabies areas (nEDRAs), where cat rabies is not considered to be dependent on dog rabies, since cat rabies occurs through exposure to infected wildlife or the importation of infected pets, the incidence in cats may be higher than the incidence in dogs

Summary

Introduction

60,000 human deaths each year [1] In some areas such as Western Europe, Oceania or Japan the enzootic circulation of rabies (associated with Rabies Virus RABV) in domestic and wild animal populations has been halted, preventing human exposures. Rabies risk persists at low levels in these areas mostly because of (re)importations of rabies-infected animals, especially dogs and cats, from rabies enzootic areas [2]. In this context, it is crucial to assess the probability of rabies reintroduction through dog and cat movements in order to provide a deeper understanding of the processes responsible for the risk persistence.

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Conclusion