ABSTRACTThis paper presents a methodology for conducting probabilistic assessments for structural integrity applications based on the Monte Carlo method. This starts with the definition of the underlying procedure for assessing the failure mechanisms of interest, followed by the statistical modelling of the key input parameters, leading to the estimation of desired probabilities. A case-study assessing a plant component (the tubeplate) for creep-fatigue crack initiation using the R5 Volume 2/3 procedure was conducted to provide context and demonstrate the utilities of implementing a probabilistic framework. Expanding on previous work, this paper highlights the main areas of focus for the proposed probabilistic methodology: probabilistic representation of input parameters, correlations, treatment of loading uncertainties, conducting post-assessment sensitivity analyses, the extrapolation of assessment location probabilities to component-level and, thereafter, population-level estimates. Through presenting a case-study implementing the full probabilistic methodology, the aim is to promote wider application and acceptance within the international structural integrity community, and further development of the methodology and constituent methods.
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