Quarterly National Research Articles

Reconstructing a Short-Term Indicator by State-Space Models: An Application to Estimate Hours Worked by Quarterly National Accounts

ISTAT has recently released an updated version of short-term statistics on hours worked in Italy, which are used in labor input estimates by the Quarterly National Accounts (QNA). The coverage of these statistics has been expanded from larger-than-ten workers firms to include the entire universe of Italian private firms. To include the updated indicator within estimates by QNA, the series must be reconstructed back to 1995 first quarter (1995q1) due to methodological requirements of QNA. In this paper, we first reconstruct the updated indicator using the Kalman filter and smoother algorithms applied to a state-space representation of a multivariate structural model (SUTSE). Next, we comparatively assess the performance of the new indicator against the non-updated one. This assessment is based on estimates of quarterly per-employee hours worked using temporal disaggregation methods for seven economic sections spanning the non-agricultural private business economy over the period 1995q1 to 2020q4. Compared to the previous indicator, the reconstructed indicator (i) implies improvements in temporal disaggregation model fitting in the majority of economic sections considered; (ii) returns smaller forecast errors in the 64.3% of the estimations, based on MAE; (iii) ensures a higher correlation between the estimated quarterly series to the indicator in the 71.4% of the estimates.

¿Cómo afectan las revisiones de la Contabilidad Nacional a la interpretación de la evolución de la economía española desde la pandemia?

Rationale The revision to the Annual and Quarterly National Accounts figures by the National Statistics Institute in September was more extensive than in previous years and has altered the interpretation of some aspects of Spanish economic developments since the pandemic. Takeaways •The new figures entail upward revisions to GDP of 0.2 percentage points (pp) in 2020, 0.9 pp in 2021 and 0.3 pp in 2022. The Spanish economy therefore recovered its pre-pandemic level in 2022 Q3 (rather than in spring 2023, as per the previous information), one year later than the euro area overall. The main factors underlying these revisions are, on the demand side, the greater domestic demand momentum and, on the supply side, the greater strength of services. •The new time series signal that productivity has fared somewhat better, tax revenues have been more consistent with macroeconomic developments, household expenditure has been more dynamic, in keeping with the improvement in real labour income, and unit labour costs have increased more than previously estimated, rising in Spain more than in the euro area overall since 2019, which could ultimately impact Spanish firms’ competitiveness.

Accounting for GDP– A study of epistemic strategies when calculating the quarterly economy

Previous studies of macroeconomic accounting have focused on the conceptual and political development of national accounts and how such theoretical concepts generate economic reality. By turning focus to the calculative practices of macroeconomic accounting, studying the Norwegian Quarterly National Accounts (QNA), the present work underlines that the national economy is not only constituted in the political discourse of growth and within international classifications, but also within the everyday processes of calculating the numbers. It shows how the QNA team struggles to adhere to the formal classifications and find reliable empirical accounts that matches them. In such situations, epistemic strategies are employed to handle the “gaps” and misalignments between the formal classifications and the everyday calculative practice. By theorizing the validation and support of weak numbers within a calculative culture shaped by the handling of second-order measurements and interrupted representations, the present study contributes to an emerging accounting literature on interrupted and hyperreal representations.

Nowcasting domestic demand using a dynamic factor model: the case of Ireland

ABSTRACT The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need for timely information on the evolving economic impacts of such a crisis. During these periods, there is an increased need to understand the current state of the economy to guide the effective implementation of policy. This is made difficult by the fact that official estimates of economic indicators, such as those published by national statistical agencies, are released with a substantial lag. Using the case of Ireland, this article shows that the information contained in a panel of monthly economic indicators can be related to Quarterly National Accounts under the methodological framework of a dynamic factor model (DFM). The article also suggests that accounting for structural breaks improves the nowcasting performance of domestic demand.

Performance of the Mexican nursing labor market: a repeated cross-sectional study, 2005\u20132019

BackgroundThe close link between human resources for health and the performance of health systems calls for a comprehensive study of the labor market. This paper proposes a performance metric for the nursing labor market, measures its magnitude and analyzes its predictors over the last 15 years.Design and methodsA repeated cross-sectional analysis using data from the quarterly population-based National Survey of Occupation and Employment 2005–2019 (ENOE in Spanish). An aggregate total of 19,311 Mexican nurses (population N = 4,816,930) was analyzed. Nursing labor market performance was defined as the level of non-precarious employment of nurses in the health sector. After describing the sociodemographic, labor and contextual characteristics of the nurses surveyed, we identified the key correlates of market performance using repeated cross-sectional multiple logistic regression analysis. We then estimated the adjusted prevalence of market performance according to the survey period and socioeconomic region of residence.ResultsThe exogenous indicators analyzed shed light on various aspects of the market structure. Unemployment remained stable at 5% during the period examined, but underemployment rose by 26% and precarious employment, our endogenous indicator, also grew significantly. On the whole, our indicators revealed a notable deterioration in the structure of the nursing labor market; they varied by age and sex as well as between public and private institutions. Although the steepest deterioration occurred in the private sector, we observed an increase in precarious jobs among public institutions formerly protective of employment conditions.ConclusionsThe deterioration of the labor market jeopardizes the ability of nursing professionals to participate in the market as well as to obtain secure jobs once they do enter. The Mexican Health System suffers from a chronic dearth of nurses, reducing its capacity to achieve its core objectives including enhanced coverage and increased effectiveness. Nursing workforce planning requires a context where the conditions in which the market currently operates, and its potential deterioration are considered.

Forecast Overview

The Quarterly National Accounts for Q3 2021 revealed large revisions to the historical data that narrowed the gap to the pre‐pandemic level of GDP to 1.5%, down from the previous estimate of 2.1%. But the data also confirmed that after spectacular growth in Q2, when most of the economy reopened after lockdown, the recovery slowed in Q3.

Increasing Capacity to Detect Clusters of Rapid HIV Transmission in Varied Populations-United States.

Molecular cluster detection analyzes HIV sequences to identify rapid HIV transmission and inform public health responses. We describe changes in the capability to detect molecular clusters and in geographic variation in transmission dynamics. We examined the reporting completeness of HIV-1 polymerase sequences in quarterly National HIV Surveillance System datasets from December 2015 to December 2019. Priority clusters were identified quarterly. To understand populations recently affected by rapid transmission, we described the transmission risk and race/ethnicity of people in clusters first detected in 2018–2019. During December 2015 to December 2019, national sequence completeness increased from 26% to 45%. Of the 1212 people in the 136 clusters first detected in 2018–2019, 69% were men who have sex with men (MSM) and 11% were people who inject drugs (PWID). State-by-state analysis showed substantial variation in transmission risk and racial/ethnic groups in clusters of rapid transmission. HIV sequence reporting has increased nationwide. Molecular cluster analysis identifies rapid transmission in varied populations and identifies emerging patterns of rapid transmission in specific population groups, such as PWID, who, in 2015–2016, comprised only 1% of people in such molecular clusters. These data can guide efforts to focus, tailor, and scale up prevention and care services for these populations.

Insurance status and waiting times for hospital-based services in Ireland

In Ireland long waits for public hospital services are a feature of the healthcare system, with limited evidence that waits for private hospital services (delivered in both public and private hospitals) are shorter. In 2008, in an attempt to ensure more equitable access to hospital-based services, a ‘common waiting list’ for all patients within public hospitals was proposed. The aim of this paper is to analyse waiting times in Ireland for hospital services for patients with and without private health insurance (PHI) and to examine whether the 2008 reform reduced the differential in waiting. The analysis used data from the 2007 and 2010 health module of the Quarterly National Household survey (QNHS). The impact of insurance status on waiting times was analysed for the period before and after the reforms. A higher proportion of those without PHI were waiting more than three months for hospital services relative to those with PHI. There was no evidence that the 2008 reforms reduced the differential. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the proposals were not fully implemented, although expansion of capacity for private patients’ treatment in private hospitals is a possible confounding factor.

Remaining active in the labour market: Trends and characteristics of the over 50s

Abstract Drawing on the Quarterly National Household Survey (QNHS), this paper examines changes in the proportion of people aged over 50, active in the Irish labour market from 1998 to 2014. Results indicate that an increasing number of workers over 50 remain active, due mainly to the dramatic increase in the proportion of older females remaining in the labour force. By 2014 the 50 to 64 age group accounted for a quarter of all economically active people in the labour market between 15 and 64. Older workers are more likely to be employees and less likely to be employers or self-employed in 2014 compared to 1998. Older workers in lower-level occupations, particularly over the age of 60, are more likely to remain economically active. Level of education is strongly associated with the likelihood of older workers remaining economically active, particularly for the 50-59 age group and for females. .

Comorbidity and healthcare use for individuals with CVD in the Ireland: a cross-sectional, population-based study

ObjectiveThis study explores the factors associated with health service use for individuals with cardiovascular disease (CVD) and comorbidity in the Ireland.DesignPopulation-based cross-sectional survey.SettingNationally representative health and health service use survey...

GDP revisions and nowcasting in Serbia

This paper addresses the issues of Quarterly National Accounts compilation and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) revisions as well as GDP shortterm forecasting based on available monthly series of economic and financial indicators. If GDP is promptly and properly measured, policy makers and the general public can closely monitor implementation of the fiscal consolidation program. Reputation of the program depends on achievements that should be beyond any doubt. Since figures on quarterly GDP and its components are provisional until autumn of next year, and subject for revision over the next two years - which is a standard ESA 2010 methodology - accuracy of data might interfere with prompt availability. Additionally, nowcasting can provide timely estimates of current GDP. Figures on this quarter GDP are available two months after the end of the quarter. Flash estimates of GDP are available one month after the end of the quarter. The nowcasting technique can substantially shorten this gap. However, the challenging issue is related to a choice of the monthly series that should be included in Mixed Data Sampling econometrics. We address both of these issues in this paper.

A Simulation Study of Weighting Methods to Improve Labour-Force Estimates of Immigrants in Ireland

Abstract As immigration has become a global phenomenon in recent years, a number of European countries, including Ireland, have experienced an influx of immigrants, causing a shift in their national demographics. Therefore, it is important that the EU-LFS yield reliable labour-force estimates not only for the whole population, but also for the immigrant population. This article uses simulation techniques to compare the effectiveness of four different weighting mechanisms in order to improve the precision of the labour-force estimates from the Irish component of the European Union Labour Force Survey (EU-LFS) called the Quarterly National Household Survey (QNHS). The four weighting methodologies for comparison include the original and the current weighting scheme of the QNHS as well as our two proposed alternative weighting schemes. The simulation results show that by modifying the current QNHS weighting mechanism, we can improve the accuracy of the labour-force estimates of the immigrant population in Ireland without affecting the estimates of the whole population and the Irish nationals. This article highlights potential issues that other countries with new immigrant populations may face when using the EU-LFS for immigration research, and our recommendations may be useful to researchers and national statistical offices in such countries.

Gender Differences in the Association between Common Mental Disorders and Regional Deprivation in Ireland

This article aims to add a gender and place perspective to our understanding of depression and anxiety (common mental disorders [CMDs]) through the use of multilevel models. To date, regional variations in the prevalence of CMDs in Ireland have not been explained adequately. Using data from the 2007 Quarterly National Household Survey special module on health and health service utilization, this article examines whether regional differences in CMDs persist after accounting for both individual and regional characteristics. The null model indicated that 2 percent of the variance in CMDs occurred at the regional level. Including contextual interaction variables, the level of variance at the regional level increased to 3.3 percent. Of specific interest to this article was the association between place-based deprivation and gender on CMDs at the regional level. This article found that although regional deprivation alone did not have a significant impact on CMDs, the interaction between female and regional relative deprivation was significant. Specifically, this means that women living in more deprived regions tend to have a greater number of CMDs.

Exploring post-fall audit report data in an acute care setting.

This retrospective, descriptive, chart review study was done to demonstrate one strategy for communicating aggregated and actionable fall data to bedside nurses. It was conducted at a nonprofit acute care hospital in the northwestern United States to analyze the quantitative data captured in post-fall audit reports of patient falls (March 1-December 31, 2012, N = 107 falls). Descriptive and binary statistical analyses were used. The quarterly National Database of Nursing Quality Indicators 2011 and 2012 reports showed that implementation of post-fall audit reports can lead to a lower overall fall rate and a lower fall-injury rate. Increased nursing hours could be a confounding factor of the positive impact of conducting post-fall audits in this study. It is concluded that timely and systematic reporting, analysis, and interpretation of fall data in an electronic format can facilitate prevention of falls and fall injuries.

On the Extrapolation with the Denton Proportional Benchmarking Method

Statistical offices have often recourse to benchmarking methods for compiling quarterly national accounts (QNA). Benchmarking methods employ quarterly indicator series (i) to distribute annual, more reliable series of national accounts and (ii) to extrapolate the most recent quarters not yet covered by annual benchmarks. The Proportional First Differences (PFD) benchmarking method proposed by Denton (1971) is a widely used solution for distribution, but in extrapolation it may suffer when the movements in the indicator series do not match consistently the movements in the target annual benchmarks. For this reason, an enhanced formula for extrapolation was recommended by the IMF’s Quarterly National Accounts Manual: Concepts, Data Sources, and Compilation (2001). We discuss the rationale behind this technique, and propose a matrix formulation of it. In addition, we present applications of the enhanced formula to artificial and real-life benchmarking examples showing how the extrapolations for the most recent quarters can be improved.

On the Extrapolation with the Denton Proportional Benchmarking Method

Statistical offices have often recourse to benchmarking methods for compiling quarterly national accounts (QNA). Benchmarking methods employ quarterly indicator series (i) to distribute annual, more reliable series of national accounts and (ii) to extrapolate the most recent quarters not yet covered by annual benchmarks. The Proportional First Differences (PFD) benchmarking method proposed by Denton (1971) is a widely used solution for distribution, but in extrapolation it may suffer when the movements in the indicator series do not match consistently the movements in the target annual benchmarks. For this reason, an enhanced formula for extrapolation was recommended by the IMF’s Quarterly National Accounts Manual: Concepts, Data Sources, and Compilation (2001). We discuss the rationale behind this technique, and propose a matrix formulation of it. In addition, we present applications of the enhanced formula to artificial and real-life benchmarking examples showing how the extrapolations for the most recent quarters can be improved.

Business Cycles, Monetary Transmission and Shocks to Financial Stability: Empirical Evidence from a New Set of Danish Quarterly National Accounts 1948-2010

In Denmark official quarterly national accounts are only available for the period since 1977. The paper constructs a set of summary non-seasonally adjusted quarterly national accounts for Denmark for 1948-2010 in current and constant prices as well as a set of other key quarterly macroeconomic indicators covering the Danish economy since 1948. As a first exploratory analysis of these two new data sets the paper reviews some of the stylized empirical evidence on the business cycle, the monetary transmission mechanism and shocks to financial stability that can be uncovered using filtering techniques and reduced-form vector autoregressive (VAR) models. The long-span data sets make it possible to estimate VAR models of a higher dimension than is usually found in the literature due to degrees-of-freedom problems. The results from the VAR analysis indicate a significant and long-lasting negative impact on real GDP following an exogenous shock to the banking sector’s write-down ratio.

Impact of changes in the National Accounts and Economic Commentary for 2011 quarter 2

This article summarises the effects of methodological, classification and other changes implemented in the Quarterly National Accounts for the second quarter of 2011, with which it is simultaneously published, consistent with the UK National Accounts Blue Book 2011, to be published in November.

Deflation improvements in the UK National Accounts

As part of wider developments to improve the quality of the UK National Accounts, ONS will introduce two key improvements to the methods by which volume estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) are calculated in the Blue Book 2011 consistent Quarterly National Accounts release, which will be published on 5 October 2011. The first will be the harmonisation of the deflators used across the accounts. The second is replacement of Retail Price Index (RPI) series with Consumer Price Index (CPI) series in forming the deflators.

Content of Blue Book 2011

The Quarterly National Accounts consistent with Blue Book 2011 (BB11) and Pink Book 2011 (PB11 ) will be published on 5 October 2011. Electronic publication of the BB11 and PB11 will be on 1 November 2011. In line with ONS policy, this article informs users about the content of these publications, including changes from previous years.