¿Cómo afectan las revisiones de la Contabilidad Nacional a la interpretación de la evolución de la economía española desde la pandemia?

Abstract

Rationale The revision to the Annual and Quarterly National Accounts figures by the National Statistics Institute in September was more extensive than in previous years and has altered the interpretation of some aspects of Spanish economic developments since the pandemic. Takeaways •The new figures entail upward revisions to GDP of 0.2 percentage points (pp) in 2020, 0.9 pp in 2021 and 0.3 pp in 2022. The Spanish economy therefore recovered its pre-pandemic level in 2022 Q3 (rather than in spring 2023, as per the previous information), one year later than the euro area overall. The main factors underlying these revisions are, on the demand side, the greater domestic demand momentum and, on the supply side, the greater strength of services. •The new time series signal that productivity has fared somewhat better, tax revenues have been more consistent with macroeconomic developments, household expenditure has been more dynamic, in keeping with the improvement in real labour income, and unit labour costs have increased more than previously estimated, rising in Spain more than in the euro area overall since 2019, which could ultimately impact Spanish firms’ competitiveness.