Quantitative Framework Research Articles

Application of Multi-Factor Financial Models in Asset Pricing

This paper explores the theoretical underpinnings and practical applications of multi-factor models in stock portfolio management. It outlines the theoretical frameworks of multi-factor asset pricing models such as APT theory, Fama-French three-factor, and five-factor models, analyzing how various risk factors influence asset returns. The study then discusses methods for identifying core risk factors empirically, constructing portfolios, optimizing weight allocations, and evaluating investment performance. Empirical testing using data from the CSI 300 and CSI 800 indices confirms that optimized multi-factor portfolios achieve significant excess returns while managing risk effectively, showcasing the practical utility of this quantitative investment framework in the Chinese A-share market.

Diagnosis and assessment of cyclic freeze–thaw damage in tunnel lining concrete using piezoelectric-based electromechanical impedance technique

Cold regional tunnel linings extensively suffer from severe cyclic freeze–thaw damage, which adversely influences their stability, durability and in-service safety. Consequently, the diagnosis and assessment of cyclic freeze–thaw damage in concrete linings have garnered worldwide attention. This study presents a pioneering effort in using the PZT-based electromechanical impedance (EMI) technique to monitor the evolving damage within lining concrete concurrently exposed to bending loads and freeze–thaw cycles. First of all, ultrasonic measurements and four-point bending tests were performed on cyclically freeze-thawed concrete specimens under two different bending loads. Both the degrading flexural strength and the diminishing ultrasonic wave velocity were measured. Particularly, the damage evolution was characterized by the flexural strength degradation ratio, which exponentially increased by 44.81% and 64.28% under two bending scenarios, respectively. Moreover, conductance signatures driven by two vibration modes (d31 and d33 modes) of embedded piezoelectric transducers were recorded, and both localized and overall variations in the signals were analyzed. It is concluded that both the resonant frequency shift and the statistic metric RMSD within the d31-dominated frequency range could accurately indicate the cyclic freeze–thaw damage of lining concrete. Their linear correlation coefficients with the damage variable reached 0.957 and 0.935, respectively. This research establishes a quantitative framework for monitoring the progressive damage of tunnel lining subjected to freeze–thaw cycling using the EMI technique and lays the groundwork for a broader range of future applications in structure damage diagnosis and assessment.

When should lockdown be implemented? Devising cost-effective strategies for managing epidemics amid vaccine uncertainty.

During an infectious disease outbreak, public health policy makers are tasked with strategically implementing interventions whilst balancing competing objectives. To provide a quantitative framework that can be used to guide these decisions, it is helpful to devise a clear and specific objective function that can be evaluated to determine the optimal outbreak response. In this study, we have developed a mathematical modelling framework representing outbreaks of a novel emerging pathogen for which non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are imposed or removed based on thresholds for hospital occupancy. These thresholds are set at different levels to define four unique strategies for disease control. We illustrate that the optimal intervention strategy is contingent on the choice of objective function. Specifically, the optimal strategy depends on the extent to which policy makers prioritise reducing health costs due to infection over the costs associated with maintaining interventions. Motivated by the scenario early in the COVID-19 pandemic, we incorporate the development of a vaccine into our modelling framework and demonstrate that a policy maker's belief about when a vaccine will become available in future, and its eventual coverage (and/or effectiveness), affects the optimal strategy to adopt early in the outbreak. Furthermore, we show how uncertainty in these quantities can be accounted for when deciding which interventions to introduce. This research highlights the benefits of policy makers being explicit about the precise objectives of introducing interventions.

Predicting the Intravenous Pharmacokinetics of Covalent Drugs in Animals and Humans.

30 covalent drugs were used to assess clearance (CL) prediction reliability in animals and humans. In animals, marked CL underprediction was observed using cryopreserved hepatocytes or liver microsomes (LMs) supplemented for cytochrome P450 activity. Improved quantitative performance was observed by combining metabolic stability data from LMs and liver S9 fractions, the latter supplemented with reduced glutathione for glutathione transferase activity. While human LMs provided reliable human CL predictions, prediction statistics were improved further by incorporating S9 stability data. CL predictions with allometric scaling were less robust compared to in vitro drug metabolism methods; the best results were obtained using the fu-corrected intercept model. Human volume of distribution (Vd) was well predicted using allometric scaling of animal pharmacokinetic data; the most reliable results were achieved using simple allometric scaling of unbound Vd values. These results provide a quantitative framework to guide appropriate method selection for human PK prediction with covalent drugs.

Kinetic dissection of pre-crRNA binding and processing by CRISPR-Cas12a.

CRISPR-Cas12a binds and processes a single pre-crRNA during maturation, providing a simple tool for genome editing applications. Here, we constructed a kinetic and thermodynamic framework for pre-crRNA processing by Cas12a in vitro, and we measured the contributions of distinct regions of the pre-crRNA to this reaction. We find that the pre-crRNA binds rapidly and extraordinarily tightly to Cas12a (K d = 0.6 pM), such that pre-crRNA binding is fully rate limiting for processing and therefore determines the specificity of Cas12a for different pre-crRNAs. The guide sequence contributes 10-fold to the binding affinity of the pre-crRNA, while deletion of an upstream sequence has no significant effect. After processing, the mature crRNA remains very tightly bound to Cas12a with a comparable affinity. Strikingly, the affinity contribution of the guide region increases to 600-fold after processing, suggesting that additional contacts are formed and may preorder the crRNA for efficient DNA target recognition. Using a direct competition assay, we find that pre-crRNA-binding specificity is robust to changes in the guide sequence, addition of a 3' extension, and secondary structure within the guide region. However, stable secondary structure in the guide region can strongly inhibit DNA targeting, indicating that care should be taken in crRNA design. Together, our results provide a quantitative framework for pre-crRNA binding and processing by Cas12a and suggest strategies for optimizing crRNA design in genome editing applications.

Quantitative Analysis of the Synergy of Doping and Nanostructuring of Oxide Photocatalysts.

In this paper, the effect of doping and nanostructuring on the electrostatic potential across the electrochemical interface between a transition metal oxide and a water electrolyte is investigated by means of the Poisson-Boltzmann model. For spherical nanoparticles and nanorods, compact expressions for the limiting potentials at which the space charge layer includes the whole semiconductor are reported. We provide a quantitative analysis of the distribution of the potential drop between the solid and the liquid and show that the relative importance changes with doping. It is usually assumed that high doping improves charge dynamics in the semiconductor but reduces the width of the space charge layer. However, nanostructuring counterbalances the latter negative effect; we show quantitatively that in highly doped nanoparticles the space charge layer can occupy a similar volume fraction as in low-doped microparticles. Moreover, as shown by some recent experiments, under conditions of high doping the electric fields in the Helmholtz layer can be as high as 100 mV/Å, comparable to electric fields inducing freezing in water. This work provides a systematic quantitative framework for understanding the effects of doping and nanostructuring on electrochemical interfaces, and suggests that it is necessary to better characterize the interface at the atomistic level.

New Horizons of Model Informed Drug Development in Rare Diseases Drug Development.

Model-informed approaches provide a quantitative framework to integrate all available nonclinical and clinical data, thus furnishing a totality of evidence approach to drug development and regulatory evaluation. Maximizing the use of all available data and information about the drug enables a more robust characterization of the risk-benefit profile and reduces uncertainty in both technical and regulatory success. This offers the potential to transform rare diseases drug development, where conducting large well-controlled clinical trials is impractical and/or unethical due to a small patient population, a significant portion of which could be children. Additionally, the totality of evidence generated by model-informed approaches can provide confirmatory evidence for regulatory approval without the need for additional clinical data. In the article, applications of novel quantitative approaches such as quantitative systems pharmacology, disease progression modeling, artificial intelligence, machine learning, modeling of real-world data using model-based meta-analysis and strategies such as external control and patient-reported outcomes as well as clinical trial simulations to optimize trials and sample collection are discussed. Specific case studies of these modeling approaches in rare diseases are provided to showcase applications in drug development and regulatory review. Finally, perspectives are shared on the future state of these modeling approaches in rare diseases drug development along with challenges and opportunities for incorporating such tools in the rational development of drug products.

Equity in Transportation Asset Management: A Proposed Framework

Transportation asset management has historically overlooked equity considerations. However, recently, there has been a significant increase in concerns about this issue, leading to a range of research and practices aimed at achieving more equitable outcomes. Yet, addressing equity is challenging and time-consuming, given its complexity and multifaceted nature. Several factors can significantly impact the outcome of an analysis, including the definition of equity, the evaluation and quantification of its impacts, and the community classification. As a result, there can be a wide range of interpretations of what constitutes equity. Therefore, there is no single correct or incorrect approach for equity evaluation, and different perspectives, impacts, and analysis methods could be considered for this purpose. This study reviews previous research on how transportation agencies are integrating equity into transportation asset management, particularly pavement management systems. The primary objective is to investigate important equity factors for pavement management and propose a prototype framework that integrates economic, environmental, and social equity considerations into the decision-making process for pavement maintenance, rehabilitation, and reconstruction projects. The proposed framework consists of two main steps: (1) defining objectives based on the three equity dimensions, and (2) analyzing key factors for identifying underserved areas through a case study approach. The case study analyzed pavement condition and sociodemographic data for California’s Bay Area. Statistical analysis and a machine learning method revealed that areas with higher poverty rates and worse air quality tend to have poorer pavement conditions, highlighting the need to consider these factors when defining underserved areas in Bay Area and promoting equity in pavement management decision-making. The proposed framework incorporates an optimization problem to simultaneously minimize disparities in pavement conditions between underserved and other areas, reduce greenhouse gas emissions from construction and traffic disruptions, and maximize overall network pavement condition subject to budget constraints. By incorporating all three equity aspects into a quantitative decision-support framework with specific objectives, this study proposes a novel approach for transportation agencies to promote sustainable and equitable asset management practices.

A quantitative modeling framework to understand the physiology of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis and interaction with cortisol replacement therapy.

Congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH) is characterized by impaired adrenal cortisol production. Hydrocortisone (synthetic cortisol) is the drug-of-choice for cortisol replacement therapy, aiming to mimic physiological cortisol circadian rhythm. The hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis controls cortisol production through the pituitary adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH) and feedback mechanisms. The aim of this study was to quantify key mechanisms involved in the HPA axis activity regulation and their interaction with hydrocortisone therapy. Data from 30 healthy volunteers was leveraged: Endogenous ACTH and cortisol concentrations without any intervention as well as cortisol concentrations measured after dexamethasone suppression and single dose administration of (i) 0.5-10mg hydrocortisone as granules, (ii) 20mg hydrocortisone as granules and intravenous bolus. A stepwise model development workflow was used: A newly developed model for endogenous ACTH and cortisol was merged with a refined hydrocortisone pharmacokinetic model. The joint model was used to simulate ACTH and cortisol trajectories in CAH patients with varying degrees of enzyme deficiency, with or without hydrocortisone administration, and healthy individuals. Time-dependent ACTH-driven endogenous cortisol production and cortisol-mediated feedback inhibition of ACTH secretion processes were quantified and implemented in the model. Comparison of simulated ACTH and cortisol trajectories between CAH patients and healthy individuals showed the importance of administering hydrocortisone before morning ACTH secretion peak time to suppress ACTH overproduction observed in untreated CAH patients. The developed framework allowed to gain insights on the physiological mechanisms of the HPA axis regulation, its perturbations in CAH and interaction with hydrocortisone administration, paving the way towards cortisol replacement therapy optimization.

Dynamic Evolution of Multi-Scale Ecosystem Services and Their Driving Factors: Rural Planning Analysis and Optimisation

Rural areas provide ecosystem services (ESs) to urban metropolitan regions. These services are threatened by the constant pressure of urbanisation and new interest in rural development. This has heightened the conflict between environmental concerns and developmental needs, thereby presenting significant land management and rural planning challenges. Employing a quantitative measurement and optimisation framework, we investigate six representative ES variables to assess planning strategies that can address this contradiction. We used a suburban rural area around Nanjing, China, as our study area. We collected spatial data from 2005 to 2020 at two scales (village level and 500 m grid) to map ESs, quantify interactions (trade-offs and synergies among ES bundles), and identify the social, ecological, and landscape drivers of rural change. Based on this, rural planning strategies for optimising ESs at different scales have been proposed. Our findings include (1) spatial heterogeneity in the distribution of ESs, (2) the identification of seven synergistic and eight trade-off pairs among ESs, (3) a spatial scale effect in suburban rural areas, and (4) the spatial trade-offs/synergies of ESs exhibiting a ‘Matthew effect’. The identification of key trade-offs and synergistic ES pairs and the categorisation of ES bundles form the basis for a multi-scale hierarchical management approach for ESs in the region. By examining the commonalities and variations in drivers across diverse scales, we established connections and focal points for spatial planning. We use these findings to propose spatial planning and landscape policy recommendations for rural suburban areas on multiple scales. This study aims to provide a comprehensive and detailed spatial optimisation strategy for rural areas that can help contribute to their revitalisation.

Meeting report: DMPK optimisation strategies and quantitative translational PKPD frameworks to predict human PK and efficacious dose of targeted protein degraders

Meeting report: DMPK optimisation strategies and quantitative translational PKPD frameworks to predict human PK and efficacious dose of targeted protein degraders

Assessing the effectiveness of PM2.5 pollution control from the perspective of interprovincial transport and PM2.5 mitigation costs across China

Due to the transboundary nature of air pollutants, a province's efforts to improve air quality can reduce PM2.5 concentration in the surrounding area. The inter-provincial PM2.5 pollution transport could bring great challenges to related environmental management work, such as financial fund allocation and subsidy policy formulation. Herein, we examined the transport characteristics of PM2.5 pollution across provinces in 2013 and 2020 via chemical transport modeling and then monetized inter-provincial contributions of PM2.5 improvement based on pollutant emission control costs. We found that approximately 60% of the PM2.5 pollution was from local sources, while the remaining 40% originated from outside provinces. Furthermore, about 1011 billion RMB of provincial air pollutant abatement costs contributed to the PM2.5 concentration decline in other provinces during 2013–2020, accounting for 41.2% of the total abatement costs. Provinces with lower unit improvement costs for PM2.5, such as Jiangsu, Hebei, and Shandong, were major contributors, while Guangdong, Guangxi, and Fujian, bearing higher unit costs, were among the main beneficiaries. Our study identifies provinces that contribute to air quality improvement in other provinces, have high economic efficiency, and provide a quantitative framework for determining inter-provincial compensations. This study also reveals the uneven distribution of pollution abatement costs (PM2.5 improvement/abatement costs) due to transboundary PM2.5 transport, calling for adopting inter-provincial economic compensation policies. Such mechanisms ensure equitable cost-sharing and effective regional air quality management.

Development of a method to assess synergy and competition for water use among water-energy-food nexus in the Yellow River basin: Water quantity-quality dimensions

Water, as an indispensable component of the water-energy-food (WEF) nexus, plays a pivotal role in shaping its stability and safety. The competition for water between the food and energy systems is accentuated in the concept of the nexus. However, existing quantitative frameworks and assessment mechanisms have limitations as they often neglect to consider water quality in water competition within the WEF nexus. Therefore, a WEF nexus synergy and competition assessment method was proposed by coupling water footprint theory and the Lotka-Volterra model in this paper. This method establishes two scenarios based on the water footprint perspective, namely, water quantity and water quality-quantity. It effectively addresses the deficiencies in quantitative analysis of WEF system trade-offs and synergies. To illustrate the application of the method, this study conducted a case study in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) of China, evaluating the complex competitive and synergistic mechanisms of water use in the energy and food industries. Compared to the water quantity scenario, the results reveals that the inclusion of gray water footprint intensifies the competition for water in the food and energy industries in the YRB from 2000 to 2020, particularly in resource-based and economically developed cities. The spatial distribution characteristics of water resource competition and synergy in the YRB’s WEF system align with WEF endowment and economic technology levels. To address water conflicts in the WEF nexus and enhance nexus security, this study proposes a regulatory pathway for WEF system synergistic security based on two aspects (water competition and synergy characteristics and resource endowment). It contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of water competition and synergy in the WEF nexus and provides valuable insights for resource management.

Quantitative assessment of static voltage stability for power system with high-penetration wind power based on energy function

As the scale of power systems expands, the penetration of renewable energy sources and power electronic devices are accelerating. With the growing complexity of power system, there is an urgent need for in-depth research on the impact of reactive power on static voltage stability. This paper proposes a quantitative assessment approach of static voltage stability for the power system with high-penetration wind power based on the energy function. A quantitative assessment framework for voltage stability indices based on power flow analysis has been established. The classic static voltage stability index L based on reactive power has been comprehensively analyzed. Additionally, combining the energy function and power flow analysis, a new quantitative index for voltage stability based on bus reactive power injection has been proposed. Finally, the effectiveness of this index has been validated by case studies. With the increasing penetration of wind power, the trend of the change of the assessment index of voltage margin is analyzed.

Quantitative risk assessment for the introduction of bluetongue virus into mainland Europe by long-distance wind dispersal of Culicoides spp.: A case study from Sardinia.

Europe faces regular introductions and reintroductions of bluetongue virus (BTV) serotypes, most recently exemplified by the incursion of serotype 3 in the Netherlands. Although the long-distance wind dispersal of the disease vector, Culicoides spp., is recognized as a virus introduction pathway, it remains understudied in risk assessments. A Quantitative Risk Assessment framework was developed to estimate the risk of BTV-3 incursion into mainland Europe from Sardinia, where the virus has been present since 2018. We used an atmospheric transport model (HYbrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory) to infer the probability of airborne dispersion of the insect vector. Epidemiological disease parameters quantified the virus prevalence in vector population in Sardinia and its potential first transmission after introduction in a new area. When assuming a 24h maximal flight duration, the risk of BTV introduction from Sardinia is limited to the Mediterranean Basin, mainly affecting the southwestern area of the Italian Peninsula, Sicily, Malta, and Corsica. The risk extends to the northern and central parts of Italy, Balearic archipelago, and mainland France and Spain, mostly when maximal flight duration is longer than 24h. Additional knowledge on vector flight conditions and Obsoletus complex-specific parameters could improve the robustness of the model. Providing both spatial and temporal insights into BTV introduction risks, our framework is a key tool to guide global surveillance and preparedness against epizootics.

An evaluation of tradeoffs in restoring ephemeral vs. perennial habitats to conserve animal populations

IntroductionHabitat loss and degradation pose significant threats to global fish and wildlife populations, prompting substantial investments in habitat creation and restoration efforts. Not all habitats provide equal benefits, leading to challenges in prioritizing restoration actions. For example, juvenile anadromous salmonids require high quality rearing aquatic habitats to achieve the physiological requirements needed to successfully migrate to the ocean. However, there are profound disagreements among anadromous salmon restoration managers whether it is best to focus efforts on restoring in-channel habitats that are available for the entire rearing period or floodplain habitats that, while facilitating greater growth and survival than in-channel habitats, are only available for a few weeks at a time and are typically only activated every two-to-three years.MethodsWe used an existing fall-run Chinook salmon decision-support model to evaluate under what conditions floodplain restoration would provide greater benefits than in-channel habitat restoration. The simulations included a wide range of floodplain inundation frequencies and durations and floodplain benefits in the form of increased survival and growth relative to in-channel habitats.ResultsThe simulations results indicated that in-channel habitat restoration was always the best habitat restoration action when there was no existing in-channel habitat despite simulating a wide range of flood frequency, duration, and growth and survival benefits. Floodplain restoration was generally best when there was sufficient in-channel habitat available to successfully rear most of the juveniles produced by the returning adult salmon.DiscussionWe hypothesize that in-channel and floodplain habitats have different roles in salmon population maintenance with in-channel habitats regulating the overall population size and floodplains acting as recurrent resource pulses. Our study provides a quantitative framework to evaluate the benefit of these two habitat types and provides generalizable rulesets that can be used by managers when implementing habitat restoration strategies for species that inhabit both in-channel and floodplain habitats.

A comprehensive framework for assessing the spatial drivers of flood disasters using an optimal Parameter-based geographical Detector–machine learning coupled model

Flood disasters pose serious threats to human life and property worldwide. Exploring the spatial drivers of flood disasters on a macroscopic scale is of great significance for mitigating their impacts. This study proposes a comprehensive framework for integrating driving-factor optimization and interpretability, while considering spatial heterogeneity. In this framework, the Optimal Parameter-based Geographic Detector (OPGD), Recursive Feature Estimation (RFE), and Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LGBM) models were utilized to construct the OPGD–RFE–LGBM coupled model to identify the essential driving factors and simulate the spatial distribution of flood disasters. The SHapley Additive ExPlanation (SHAP) interpreter was employed to quantitatively explain the driving mechanisms behind the spatial distribution of flood disasters. Yunnan Province, a typical mountainous and plateau area in Southwest China, was selected to implement the proposed framework and conduct a case study. For this purpose, a flood disaster inventory of 7332 historical events was prepared, and 22 potential driving factors related to precipitation, surface environment, and human activity were initially selected. Results revealed that flood disasters in Yunnan Province exhibit high spatial heterogeneity, with geomorphic zoning accounting for 66.1% of the spatial variation in historical flood disasters. The OPGD–RFE–LGBM coupled model offers clear advantages over a single LGBM in identifying essential driving factors and quantitatively analyzing their impacts. Moreover, the simulation performance shows a slight improvement (a 6% average decrease in RMSE and an average increase of 1% in R2) even with reduced factor data. Factor explanatory analysis indicated that the combination of the essential driving factor sets varied across different subregions; nevertheless, precipitation-related factors, such as precipitation intensity index (SDII), wet days (R10MM), and 5-day maximum precipitation (RX5day), were the main driving factors controlling flood disasters. This study provides a quantitative analytical framework for the spatial drivers of flood disasters at large scales with significant heterogeneity, offering a reference for disaster management authorities in developing macro-strategies for disaster prevention.

Evaluation of secretome biomarkers in glioblastoma cancer stem cells: A bioinformatics analysis.

Glioblastoma (GBM) is a malignant brain tumor that frequently occurs alongside other central nervous system (CNS) conditions. The secretome of GBM cells contains a diverse array of proteins released into the extracellular space, influencing the tumor microenvironment. These proteins can serve as potential biomarkers for GBM due to their involvement in key biological processes, exploring the secretome biomarkers in GBM research represents a cutting-edge strategy with significant potential for advancing diagnostic precision, treatment monitoring, and ultimately improving outcomes for patients with this challenging brain cancer. This study was aimed to investigate the roles of secretome biomarkers and their pathwayes in GBM through bioinformatics analysis. Using data from the Gene Expression Omnibus and the Cancer Genome Atlas datasets-where both healthy and cancerous samples were analyzed-we used a quantitative analytical framework to identify differentially expressed genes (DEGs) and cell signaling pathways that might be related to GBM. Then, we performed gene ontology studies and hub protein identifications to estimate the roles of these DEGs after finding disease-gene connection networks and signaling pathways. Using the GEPIA Proportional Hazard Model and the Kaplan-Meier estimator, we widened our analysis to identify the important genes that may play a role in both progression and the survival of patients with GBM. In total, 890 DEGs, including 475 and 415 upregulated and downregulated were identified, respectively. Our results revealed that SQLE, DHCR7, delta-1 phospholipase C (PLCD1), and MINPP1 genes are highly expressed, and the Enolase 2 (ENO2) and hexokinase-1 (HK1) genes are low expressions. Hence, our findings suggest novel mechanisms that affect the occurrence of GBM development, growth, and/or establishment and may also serve as secretory biomarkers for GBM prognosis and possible targets for therapy. So, continued research in this field may uncover new avenues for therapeutic interventions and contribute to the ongoing efforts to combat GBM effectively.

Simulation of a scintillator-based fast ion loss detector for steady-state operation in Wendelstein 7-X (invited).

A quantitative theoretical framework has been created to model neutral beam injection and fast ion losses in the Wendelstein 7-X (W7-X) stellarator, including a novel method to develop synthetic diagnostics for fast ion loss detectors (FILDs) of many types, such as scintillating and Faraday Cup FILDs. This is the first time that this has been done in stellarator geometry with this level of fidelity, providing a way for fast ion losses to be predicted more precisely in future stellarator experiments and in W7-X. Simulations of the signal seen by a Faraday Cup FILD have been completed for multiple W7-X plasmas and show close agreement with the measured signals. This method is now applied to an actively water-cooled, scintillator-based FILD, which is currently in development to measure the fast ion loss distribution in W7-X in greater detail. The design makes use of a double slit to measure energy-and-pitch-angle-resolved losses of both co-going and counter-going fast ions. The diagnostic, which can be inserted to different radial positions, has been designed to withstand steady-state heat fluxes of up to 120 kW/m2 along with additional transient heat loads of 100 kW/m2 lasting for up to 20s at a time. Simulations of W7-X standard magnetic configuration show up to 8 × 1013 (s-1 cm-2) ion fluxes onto the sensor from each neutral beam source and no signal from the counter-going slit. These simulations will help inform experimental proposals for future W7-X campaigns after installation of this diagnostic.

Observable Atrial and Ventricular Fibrillation Episode Durations Are Conformant With a Power Law Based on System Size and Spatial Synchronization.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) and ventricular fibrillation (VF) episodes exhibit varying durations, with some spontaneously ending quickly while others persist. A quantitative framework to explain episode durations remains elusive. We hypothesized that observable self-terminating AF and VF episode lengths, whereby durations are known, would conform with a power law based on the ratio of system size and correlation length ([Formula: see text]. Using data from computer simulations (2-dimensional sheet and 3-dimensional left-atrial), human ischemic VF recordings (256-electrode sock, n=12 patients), and human AF recordings (64-electrode basket-catheter, n=9 patients; 16-electrode high definition-grid catheter, n=42 patients), conformance with a power law was assessed using the Akaike information criterion, Bayesian information criterion, coefficient of determination (R2, significance=P<0.05) and maximum likelihood estimation. We analyzed fibrillatory episode durations and [Formula: see text], computed by taking the ratio between system size ([Formula: see text], chamber/simulation size) and correlation length (xi, estimated from pairwise correlation coefficients over electrode/node distance). In all computer models, the relationship between episode durations and [Formula: see text] was conformant with a power law (Aliev-Panfilov R2: 0.90, P<0.001; Courtemanche R2: 0.91, P<0.001; Luo-Rudy R2: 0.61, P<0.001). Observable clinical AF/VF durations were also conformant with a power law relationship (VF R2: 0.86, P<0.001; AF basket R2: 0.91, P<0.001; AF grid R2: 0.92, P<0.001). [Formula: see text] also differentiated between self-terminating and sustained episodes of AF and VF (P<0.001; all systems), as well as paroxysmal versus persistent AF (P<0.001). In comparison, other electrogram metrics showed no statistically significant differences (dominant frequency, Shannon Entropy, mean voltage, peak-peak voltage; P>0.05). Observable fibrillation episode durations are conformant with a power law based on system size and correlation length.