Quantitative Easing Program Research Articles

The Central Bank Balance Sheet as a Policy Tool: Past, Present and Future

This paper focuses on what has been learned from the past decade of previously unconventional monetary policy measures and the emerging lessons from the effects of monetary policy responses to the Covid shock. The paper explores two observations from recent quantitative easing (QE) policies in detail. First, large QE programmes implemented quickly may be particularly effective in times of market dysfunction. Second, a rapid pace of asset purchases may also enhance QE effectiveness during these periods. These observations suggest a particular form of ‘state contingency’ for the impact of QE. The paper analyses the potential implications of such state contingency for the appropriate conduct of QE policies and the choice of policy instruments in more normal times. The paper also outlines some potential implications for future central bank balance sheet policies and the operational framework to support them.

Monetary Policy Disconnect

Although designed to support monetary policy, two crucial aspects of the central bank framework can disconnect the monetary policy transmission: banks’ access to central bank deposits and Quantitative Easing (QE). We show how both hinder the monetary policy transmission through the main short-term funding market, the repurchase agreement (repo) market. First, lending rates of banks with access to the deposit facility are less responsive to the monetary policy rate. Second, repo rates secured by assets eligible for QE programs are more disconnected from the policy rate. Both effects create rate dispersion and add to one another in weakening the monetary policy transmission.

Assessing the Macroeconomic Effects of Quantitative Easing: Empirical Evidence from the Federal Reserve’s Experience

This article aims at assessing the effects of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing (QE) programmes on both economic activity and prices in the United States. Using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model on monthly data from January 2007 to March 2017, it is assumed that a substantial fraction of the liquidity injected under the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing programmes was used to artificially inflate stock prices. Furthermore, QE is assumed to be a competitive devaluation programme. The findings reveal that QE helps support economic activity, while its effect on inflation is rather small and insignificant. Besides, it is also found that QE boosts stock prices but does not have a significant effect on the US dollar.

The macroeconomic effects of quantitative easing in the euro area: Evidence from an estimated DSGE model

This paper estimates an open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with Bayesian techniques to provide a structural empirical evaluation of the macroeconomic effects of the European Central Bank's (ECB's) quantitative easing (QE) programme. Allowing for cross-border holding of government debt and using data on government debt stocks and yields across maturities, we identify the parameters governing portfolio rebalancing in the private sector. We rely on a methodological extension that measures the non-linear contribution of QE in shock decompositions under an occasionally binding constraint (zero lower bound). Our results suggest an average contribution of ECB QE to annual Euro Area GDP growth and CPI inflation in 2015–18 of 0.3 and 0.5 percentage points, respectively, with a maximum impact in 2016.

Quantify the quantitative easing: Impact on bonds and corporate debt issuance

This paper studies the impact of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Corporate Sector Purchase Programme (CSPP) announcement on prices, liquidity, and debt issuance in the European corporate bond market using a data set on bond transactions from Euroclear. I find that the quantitative easing (QE) programme increased prices and liquidity of bonds eligible to be purchased substantially. Bond yields dropped on average by 30 basis points (bps) (8%) after the CSPP announcement. Tri-party repo turnover rose by 8.15 million USD (29%), and bilateral turnover went up by 7.05 million USD (72%). Bid-ask spreads also showed significant liquidity improvement in eligible bonds. QE was successful in boosting corporate debt issuance. Firms issued 2.19 billion EUR (25%) more in QE-eligible debt after the CSPP announcement, compared to other types of debt. Surprisingly, corporates used the attracted funds mostly to increase dividends. These effects were more pronounced for longer-maturity, lower-rated bonds, and for more credit-constrained, lower-rated firms.

A note on liquidity policies and financial networks

Purpose This paper aims to provides an example of how government and central bank policies that promote market liquidity (e.g., quantitative easing programs) can change the structure of the banking system. Design/methodology/approach The nexus between liquidity policies and financial networks is addressed through an example that captures stylized features of the interbank market. In the example discussed, two scenarios are considered: one with and another without central bank/government liquidity provision, leading to two different network structures that are then used to study the likelihood of contagion. Findings The example provided shows that government and central bank policies that promote market liquidity can lead to financial networks that are better capitalized (net worth of the banking system is higher) but, at the same time, more fragile (higher likelihood of bank failures). Originality/value To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first attempt to model the formation of a financial network with an explicit mechanism accounting for government and central bank policies that affect market liquidity, which, in turn, could be interpreted as a quantitative easing program.

The effects of U.S. quantitative easing on South Africa

AbstractThis paper investigates the impact of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy on the economy of South Africa, particularly during the period of quantitative easing and thereafter from 2009 to 2018. A VAR model, including South Africa’s inflation, output, a stock market index, exchange rate, and South Africa’s policy rate is examined to determine the impact of the Federal Reserve’s actions. Our results show that the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing programs had only slight overall effects on South Africa’s economy. However, the way monetary policy is measured appears to have important effects for studies of international monetary spillovers as the results differ depending on the type of monetary policy measure used.

Emerging market capital flows and U.S. monetary policy

AbstractThis paper analyzes the drivers of net private capital flows to emerging market economies (EMEs), focusing in particular on the policies of the Federal Reserve. We argue that the role of the Federal Reserve in EME capital flows has been smaller than popularly believed. We first show that the run‐up in capital flows to EMEs predated the loosening of Fed policy, while flows slowed substantially between 2010 and 2015, even as the Fed's quantitative easing program continued to add to monetary stimulus. Both the initial surge in capital flows to EMEs and their subsequent decline are better explained by swings in commodity prices and EME output growth, a linkage which we confirm through panel data regressions on capital flows to 20 major EMEs. The anticipation of the normalization of Federal Reserve policy appears not to have played a predominant role in the decline of capital flows to EME between 2010 and 2015.

Tourism demand and economic growth in Spain: New insights based on the yield curve

This study examines for the first time the dynamic relationship between tourism growth and expected macroeconomic conditions of the destination country using a DCC-GARCH model. The focus is on the Spanish economy in which monthly tourist arrivals data from 1998 to 2017 were collected for five key origin countries and around the world. To capture expected macroeconomic conditions, the Spanish term structure of interest rates is used. The results suggest that the tourism-expected economic growth relationship is time varying without any country-specific differences in the behaviour of the correlations. Importantly, positive correlations reportedly coincides with a regime shift in the Spanish economy; whereas negative correlations are evident when expected economic conditions are stable. It is also shown that the aforementioned relationship is influenced by key geopolitical and economic events (the 9/11 terrorist attacks, Global Financial Crisis and the ECB's quantitative easing programme). Finally, policy implications derived from the main findings are discussed.

Metals' Price Elasticity of Normalized Excess Supply

We extend the model of Bashiri and Lawryshyn (2018) to the metals market and measure the significance of the relationship between metals' prices and normalized excess supply. We utilize Commodity Exchange prices, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics production and consumption data, as well as inventory data from the London Metal Exchange, Commodity Exchange, and Shanghai Futures Exchange from 1997 to 2017. We find significant relationships for copper, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin, while aluminum exhibits no relationship due to deficient inventory data. We find that during certain intervals of the 2009-2011 period, there exist deviations from the long-term relationship for the metals' prices possibly due to speculation, financialization, price stickiness, and increase of liquidity as a result of central banks' quantitative easing programs.

The politics of quantitative easing and housing stimulus by the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, 2008‒2018

Central banks have been important yet underexplored actors in the fight against the Great Recession. In addition to ultra-low interest rates, they adopted large-scale bond-buying programmes known as quantitative easing (QE). Yet there is significant variation in QE programmes with important distributive consequences. Why has the Fed adopted multi-trillion-dollar bond-buying programmes in housing, while the ECB has not? This article argues that the Fed targeted the integrated housing finance market as a monetary transmission strategy to stimulate core elements of the US growth model: credit, demand, and consumption. In contrast, the ECB hardly stimulated housing given the eurozone’s fragmented housing finance markets and the macroeconomic frictions with some eurozone growth models, particularly export-oriented Germany. Analysing archival and interview data, this article traces the decisions of these central banks since the Great Recession, contributing to scholarship on the politics of central banking, economic policy in hard times, and the welfare state.

Target2 imbalances and the ECB’s asset purchase programme. An alternative account

The aim of this paper is to investigate the cause behind rising Target2 imbalances since early 2015, coinciding with the implementation of a quantitative easing program by the ECB. Two facts have captured our attention. Firstly, the official explanation of rising Target2 imbalances, offered by the ECB, is not convincing because it does not fit the empirical evidence available for Italy and Spain. Further, our alternative interpretation reveals that through quantitative easing, the ECB has helped to clean up banks? balance sheets and has indirectly funded government spending. Secondly, those who spoke out against the risks of rising Target2 imbalances in 2011-2012, now remain silent on this issue, despite the fact that some of the presumed risks during the first wave of rising imbalances still hold. We interpret this silence as an implicit acceptance that the risks put forward in 2011-2012 are offset by reform fatigue and anti-euro sentiments in the Euro Zone.

A capital structure channel of monetary policy

We study the transmission channels from central banks’ quantitative easing programs via the banking sector when central banks start purchasing corporate bonds. We find evidence consistent with a “capital structure channel” of monetary policy. The announcement of central bank purchases reduces the bond yields of firms whose bonds are eligible for central bank purchases. These firms substitute bank term loans with bond debt, thereby relaxing banks’ lending constraints: banks with low tier-1 ratios and high nonperforming loans increase lending to private (and profitable) firms, which experience a growth in investment. The credit reallocation increases banks’ risk-taking in corporate credit.

The ECB’s quantitative easing programme as a constitutional game changer

The European Central Bank started its quantitative easing programme in 2015 in order to support euro area financial conditions and ultimately increase inflation. The controversial Public Sector Purchase programme has resulted in central bank purchases of government bonds in the magnitude of €2.1 trillion and the Eurosystem (the European Central Bank and the national central banks) become the largest creditor to the euro area Member States. The constitutional framework of the European Central Bank did foresee such a programme, which also makes it potentially problematic for the European Central Bank’s accountability. The underlying source for constitutional concerns is the European Central Bank’s exceptional independence, which could be justified with a narrow central banking model, but becomes problematic when the European Central Bank’s influence on the society becomes more multifaceted, which blurs the borderlines between monetary policy and other economic policies. The specific constitutional concerns related to the Public Sector Purchase programme and accountability are highlighted by three claims: (a) With the Public Sector Purchase programme, the European Central Bank takes deeper inroads to the society than with traditional monetary policy; (b) Through the Public Sector Purchase programme, the European Central Bank became the largest creditor to Member States it was not allowed to finance; and (c) The Public Sector Purchase programme can lead to conflicts between the price stability objective and financial stability.

A Review of Optimal Inflation Targeting, What Should Be the Threshold Inflation Target?

Although it is widely acknowledged that most of developed countries have inflation targeting in order to control sustainable economic growth these review attempted to answer some questions about the optimal inflation target foe the European central bank. The review was made based on secondary data from Eurostat data base, different articles and annual reports of the central bank of Europe.We found that the threshold inflation target to be in the form of interval with an upper bound of 4 percent and lower bound of 2 percent. Based on the objectives of maintaining sustainable economic growth in the region, the threshold level of inflation is found to be 11 - 16 percent per year for low income countries, 15 - 21 % per year for lower middle-income countries, and 4 - 5 % for upper middle-income countries. Hence, 2 % as well as 4 % of current upper bound of inflation target in Euro Area fall within this range. The interval from 0 percent to 2 percent is reasonable because low positive inflation is easier for firms to decrease real wages to maintain employment (downward rigidity) when it is necessary without reducing nominal wages. Accordingly, the measures taken by ECB [1] to deal with the problem active quantitative easing program (QE), as shown in the experience of USA, UK and Japan, are not solely efficient. Keywords : European central Bank, Sustainable economic growth, Inflation Targeting DOI : 10.7176/JESD/10-3-09 [1] European Central Bank

Современные особенности денежно-кредитной политики ведущих стран мира

The global crisis of 2007–2009 exposed the problems of the financial system, arising from the rapid development of derivative financial instruments and the increase in transnational capital flows. Moreover, in countries with developed markets, whose economy was considered stable, the consequences were the most severe. The shortcomings of monetary policy pursued by the monetary authorities of most countries were revealed. The Central banks are transforming from institutions that support price stability and ensure the sustainability of the financial market into the main tool stimulating economic growth. In order to restore the economy after the global financial crisis of 2007–2009, the Central banks of the world’s leading countries began to move away from standard methods and tools of monetary policy. Fiscal policy mechanisms have been applied to support the economy in developing countries, while monetary policy instruments have been used in developed countries. The leading countries of the world have moved to the use of non-standard methods of monetary regulation of the economy. Monetary authorities began to designate the unemployment rate as a benchmark of monetary policy, as well as to pay attention to the management of expectations of market participants, using the policy of ‘forward guidance’, which allows to get information about the upcoming changes in the monetary policy and interest rates. It was necessary to rethink the goals and objectives of the regulators, not to be limited to ensuring the price stability. The USA, Japan, England and other countries are moving from interest rate policy to non-standard methods of monetary policy and, in particular, to the method of ‘quantitative easing’. These operations contributed to the reduction of rates on public and private securities, stimulated changes in the structure of investment portfolios and improved the conditions of bank lending. At the same time, the success of the world’s leading countries in using quantitative easing programmes, for example, to stabilize prices, is not so evident. Their regulation is connected with factors that are not controlled by the Central banks, as is often said by the heads of the Central Bank. The Central Banks’ executives and other representatives of the financial community in general positively assess the role and effectiveness of ‘untraditional’ monetary policy and when considering the termination of quantitative easing operations and the transition to pre-crisis standards of interest rate policy, the heads of the most Central banks do not want to rush. The article discusses the reasons for changes in monetary policy, the characteristics of the quantitative easing operations by countries, the problem of basic quantitative easing measures usage as an effective means of preventing and overcoming economic crises

Global Demand Spillovers in Corporate Bond Issuance: The Effect of Underwriter Networks

Using novel data and a difference-in-differences strategy, I find that central bank corporate bond purchases spillover to foreign jurisdictions through bond underwriting networks. The diff-in-diff exploits the European Central Bank's 2016 corporate sector purchase program. I compare U.S. firms connected to underwriters with more or less Eurozone clients. Firms connected with banks with more European clients had larger orderbooks and issued more at lower costs. Treated firms do not increase real investment, but rather increase equity payouts. I identify a novel channel through which demand shocks spread across borders: the bond underwriting network. These results matter for understanding the overall impact of corporate quantitative easing programs.

The Effect of Quantitative Easing on Inflation in Korea

This paper evaluates the whole impact of quantitative easing on inflation in Korea implemented by the central banks in four major advanced economies, the U.S., Euro Area, U.K. and Japan. According to the analysis employing a VAR-X model with the security holdings of those central banks an exogenous variable, quantitative easing is estimated to exert downward pressures on inflation in Korea. Considering the impulse responses of Korean macroeconomic variables to a quantitative easing shock, the spillover effect is transmitted through exchange rate channel while trade channel turns out to be ineffective. In an additional analysis assessing the impact of each quantitative easing program of the central banks, only those of the Fed and European Central Bank are estimated to be significant. The empirical results prove to be robust even if using long-term interest rates as an alternative indicator of quantitative easing.

The Effect of Quantitative Easing on Inflation in Korea

This paper evaluates the whole impact of quantitative easing on inflation in Korea implemented by the central banks in four major advanced economies, the U.S., Euro Area, U.K. and Japan. According to the analysis employing a VAR-X model with the security holdings of those central banks an exogenous variable, quantitative easing is estimated to exert downward pressures on inflation in Korea. Considering the impulse responses of Korean macroeconomic variables to a quantitative easing shock, the spillover effect is transmitted through exchange rate channel while trade channel turns out to be ineffective. In an additional analysis assessing the impact of each quantitative easing program of the central banks, only those of the Fed and European Central Bank are estimated to be significant. The empirical results prove to be robust even if using long-term interest rates as an alternative indicator of quantitative easing.

Impact of the ECB Quantitative Easing on the French International Investment Position

This paper aims at estimating the impact of the recent Asset Purchase Programs implemented by the ECB – known as Quantitative easing (QE) – on external assets and liabilities recorded in one economy’s International Investment Position (IIP). Our analysis focused on the case of France. We start by describing the recent evolution of the four main items constituting the French IIP; namely Portfolio Investments, Other Investments, Derivatives and Direct Investments. We observe ample, albeit temporary, variations of these items surrounding QE programs. This analysis is complemented by an econometric approach in which we consider as QE variables both the announcements of the programs and their actual implementation. QE measures do impact all the items of the French IIP. Announcements – and particularly the one of January 2015 – play a stronger role compared to the amounts purchased. We also decompose changes in the IIP into flows and valuation effects and show that the latter is the most reactive to QE measures. Finally, we establish counterfactual scenarios to quantify what France’s IIP would have been in the absence of QE. The strong impact observed following the announcement of January 2015 is rapidly counterbalanced; which suggests an over-adjustment phenomenon at the beginning of the program. This analysis allows estimating the outcome of the policy on the net IIP and thus on international wealth transfer. Consistently with our previous findings, we observe a robust impact at the beginning of the program which is then partly offset.