Qualitative System Dynamics Research Articles

Long-Term Dynamic Behaviour of Human Resource Needs in Ghana’s Oil Sector: System Dynamics Approach

This study espouses a multi-strategy method comprising of a qualitative study and system dynamics (SD) to deliver the long-term dynamic behaviour of human resource development (HRD) in Ghana’s oil and gas sector. The adoption of the SD differed from previous studies addressing the local content implementation challenge of human resources, thereby allowing HRD to be considered a ‘system’ which, in turn, aided in comprehensively identifying and analysing the interrelationships among the dominant variables. Focal articles were reviewed to develop a causal loop diagram (CLD) for human resource and subsequently validated qualitatively. The CLD was used for analysing interconnections among the variables in the HRD and as a basis for developing the stock and flow diagram for projections. The study found that local content investment is projected to increase from $799 million to $3.0807 billion in 50 years, with a corresponding revenue increase from $29 billion to $44 billion in 50 years. Subsequent sensitivity analysis compared the local content model results under varying situations, which indicated the possibility of a demand for 20,000 local staff. The study further uncovered two critical issues affecting HRD, namely policy coordination and harmonisation and sustainable funding. These issues are exacerbated by the pervasive political interference in the administrative and operational functions of state oil and gas institutions.

Qualitative System Dynamics Model for Analyzing of Behavior Patterns of SMEs

In Iran the Small and Medium Knowledge based Enterprise (SMEs), in the development and shaping stage, face with lots of problems. Before maturity and stability, they fail. Nearly a decade passed, since science and technology parks formation happened. They were seen as a mechanism for sustainable economic development based on knowledge; through creation, support and guidance of founded SMEs. Officials and policy makers, seriously concern about sustainable success, development and growth of these SMEs which must be appropriate for needs of Iran. Identify the behavioral patterns of the stages of life (birth, growth, decline, etc.) which lead to inefficiency and decline, is essential. This helps to avoid mistake repetition and eventually reduces costs. This paper, by using participative model building tries to extract prevailed patterns which govern the behavior of SMEs in Yazd Science and Technology Park. This paper attempts to introduce positive leverage points for policy makers and senior managers who are responsible and also SMEs which are located in the Park. Therefore, in this article, while drawing the behavioral patterns of SMEs, using qualitative system dynamics modeling, the structure governing the behavior of SMEs was drawn. This structure consists of 4 reinforcing loops and 8 balancing loops. Finally, based on these loops, 12 corrective policies were proposed. Doi: 10.28991/HIJ-2021-02-01-02 Full Text: PDF

A leverage points analysis of a qualitative system dynamics model for climate change adaptation in agriculture

ContextParticipatory modeling approaches provide opportunities for collective action responding to challenges of community resource limitations. In the context of climate change, challenges arise from the potential limitations of water availability and resulting conflicts within the agricultural sector. Northeast Lower Saxony is the region with the highest irrigation intensity in Germany due to the sandy soils with low water holding capacity, the cultivation of crops with high water demand, and a negative climatic water balance during the summer months. Water resources will become more limited as a consequence of climate change. Simultaneously, the irrigation demand will most likely increase due to intensified crop cultivation. ObjectiveResponding to these challenges, we developed a novel method to identify leverage points for effective climate change adaptation measures. We applied this method to analyze opportunities for climate change adaptation within the agricultural sector in Northeast Lower Saxony. Furthermore, we assessed the potential of stakeholders to implement adaptation measures that correspond to the identified leverage points on different time scales. MethodsOur leverage point analysis is based on a qualitative system dynamics model that was developed within a participatory modeling framework. We analyzed parameters, feedback loops, and typical system archetypes within the model. Leverage points that were related to the design and the intent of the model emerged during the iterative model building process. Subsequently, we introduced a rating system to evaluate the potential of each leverage point to be successful as a climate change adaptation measure. We provide a point-by-point analysis of the potential of key stakeholders to implement adaptation measures. Results and conclusionsThe leverage points analysis was applied to the case study of Northeast Lower Saxony. It revealed that collective action is needed to cope with these challenges. Decision-makers should provide financial incentives to increase water retention in the region. Farmers will have to improve irrigation efficiency and technology for crop production. Increased societal awareness of climate change-related water shortages has the potential to direct the system towards more sustainable water use and consumption patterns. SignificanceOur novel and structured approach is an attempt to analyze complex socio-economic systems. It supports mediating water resource conflicts between various stakeholders to facilitate collective action for adaptive planning.

Cessation of an era, collapse of a giant: a review of Nokia with a qualitative system dynamics approach

Cessation of an era, collapse of a giant: a review of Nokia with a qualitative system dynamics approach

Understanding contrasting narratives on carbon dioxide capture and storage for Dutch industry using system dynamics

Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) can reduce CO2 emissions, but there is disagreement on its role. The disagreement is reflected in stark differences in stakeholders’ narratives on CCS. In the Netherlands, one extreme narrative focusses on CCS as part of a just transition and another on CCS as contributing to carbon lock-in. These narratives reflect different expectations of dynamic feedbacks around CCS deployment in the specific Dutch industrial context. This paper describes an alternative narrative that can advance the debate on what role CCS may play. Qualitative system dynamics based on interviews with experts is applied to identify the systemic feedback mechanisms that drive the dynamics of CCS in the Dutch industrial system transition, according to the two narratives. We find that CCS may reinforce carbon lock-in through the feedback mechanisms of legitimising, crowding out, and integration, and that CCS may play a part in a just climate transition through employment, economic, and environmental mechanisms. We combine these mechanisms into our alternative framing of CCS that could align the interests of different stakeholders: regulating CCS carefully to maximise its social and climate benefits and minimise the build-up of vested interests and carbon lock-in.

Depicting "the system": How structural racism and disenfranchisement in the United States can cause dynamics in community violence among males in urban black communities.

A complex system of factors interacting across time shapes community violence. It is not well understood how features of persons, institutions and communities interact as a "system" to produce escalating community violence. We aimed to integrate theoretical and experiential knowledge among young African-American urban males to develop a concept model of key causal structures driving dynamics of community violence escalation over time in a context of historical racism. We analyzed three published sources (two documentary films and one ethnography) containing lived experience perspectives on community violence escalation among African American males in three U.S. cities experiencing civil unrest due to structural racism. Qualitative descriptive analysis identified features in three key thematic categories: racialized policies and practices, economic and social disenfranchisement, and intrapsychic factors. We used causal loop diagramming, a system dynamics method designed for depicting dynamic hypotheses about the system structure producing observed trends over time, to represent the dynamic relationships among identified individual and community variables. The concept model contained key feedback structures capable of generating exponential growth in violence - providing detailed dynamic hypotheses about how violence can beget more violence ("violence escalation") within a community. Referred to as reinforcing feedback loops, these dynamics involved development of kill-or-be-killed norms, civil unrest emerging from racially oppressive policies, internalizing the code of the streets to seek outward displays of power, and processes that get one "stuck" or not able to break out of the system of violence. Qualitative system dynamics methods offered an approach to uncover and hypothesize the complex, dynamic relationships between variables shaping violence escalation trends. The resulting causal loop diagram hypothesized dynamic mechanisms capable of creating and perpetuating racial disparities in community violence escalation, that can be tested in future research to inform action to break observed cycles of community violence.

Perceived influence of mechanical engineering students’ work placement experiences on their occupational competency and self-efficacy

This paper proposes a qualitative systems dynamics model that explains how students’ work placement experiences either enhance or hinder the growth of their occupational competency and self-efficacy. The model is developed from qualitative analysis of work placement experiences of mechanical engineering students from a South African university of technology. Findings from the analysis show that students’ occupational competency and self-efficacy could be considered emergent outcomes of interactions of the learning environment, mentor posture, mentor capacity, mentor availability, meaningfulness of work, scope of work, agency, doing work, co-participating, participation trajectory and performance trajectory. The explanation of the factors and social mechanisms that influence students’ occupational competency and self-efficacy that is offered by the qualitative systems dynamics model would enable the implementation of work placement programs in a manner that would promote rather than hinder the growth of these two indicators of student employability.

Exploring Inherent Structural Knowledge in Mental Models through a Qualitative System Dynamics Approach

AbstractThe purpose of the paper is to explore the inherent structural knowledge contained inside a mental model. Systems engineering and system dynamics share a common relative in the field of Cybernetics and systems thinking but have evolved into different areas of specialization. System dynamics has the ability to integrate more qualitative variables that are not conventionally used by systems engineering due to characteristically high levels of uncertainty or an unquantifiable nature. These qualitative variables are however part of the human mind's mental models of the world and strongly influence decision making. In this paper, qualitative structural understanding is explored through a system dynamics methodology to reveal the inherent knowledge captured in a structure. The structure that is explored is the limits‐to‐growth system archetype specifically developed into a population Causal Loop Diagram (CLD). The CLD is used as an initial mental model of structure and further expanded into a system dynamics model. The results show that population dynamics is driven by structure in the case of unique population groups such as China, Japan and Africa; but also provided insight into the global population boom in the 1900's. It also exposes that the structure of population has the ability to survive extremely harsh conditions which human tribal ancestors experienced. Results of this study confirm the value of gaining structural understanding and knowledge to support and influence decision making.

Applying Community-Based system Dynamics to Address Food Insecurity in Non-Remote Indigenous Populations in Australia

Abstract Objectives There is a growing crisis of hunger and food inequality among Indigenous people in Australia who are increasingly urbanized. They experience substantially higher rates of food insecurity than the general population which impacts on diet-sensitive chronic disease risk and life expectancy. This project aimed to apply systems tools to identify systemic challenges to achieving food security and possible local actions to address the problem in two large Aboriginal communities. Methods A qualitative system dynamics method used group model building (GMB) in two regional and outer urban communities involving participants from Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Services, food relief charities, council, educational groups and some food industry partners in the two local areas. The GMB enabled the participants to consider all the connections between contributing factors, feedback and reinforcing loops to produce a map of food insecurity linked to the local food system. This project was done in collaboration with the Study of Environment of Aboriginal Resilience and Child Health (SEARCH), Australia's largest cohort study into the health of urban Aboriginal children. Results The GMB workshops resulted in causal loop diagrams that mapped the complexities of the food insecurity challenge. The maps highlighted the impact of low incomes and unemployment that influenced the communities’ ability to budget and afford healthy food, thereby leading to a reliance on convenience food outlets. This, in turn, influenced communities’ healthy food preferences, which negatively impacted on food security. Additionally, community education around healthy food choices, meal planning and financial literacy were factors that also directly impacted food security. A distinct loop reflected that a lack of coordination between agencies was leading to duplication and confusion about available food relief services and the ability to access these services. Conclusions These analyses elicited local understanding of the potential levers within the system to address food insecurity in Indigenous people. They are being used to develop community-level workplans to shift the high prevalence of food insecurity and its longer-term impact on preventable chronic disease. Funding Sources This work was funded by the Australian Prevention Partnership Centre and the Sax Institute, Sydney.

The Big Picture of Non-Profit Organisational Sustainability: a Qualitative System Dynamics Approach

The assistance of the non-profit sector in providing for needy, disabled, sick, aged and vulnerable members of society is invaluable to private and state actors already overburdened with trying to do the same. Nowhere is this impact more evident, than in the work of international non-profit organisations (NPOs) with affiliates throughout the world. However, such NPOs occupy a precarious position in terms of sustainability as their sustainability is influenced by the actions and generosity of numerous stakeholders such as donors, volunteers, funders and government agencies to name a few. In addition, they are often embedded in volatile and ever-changing political, economic and/or geographic settings which add to the complexity of their endeavours to remain successful and sustainable. This study, in response to the dire lack of an integrated and holistic account of NPO sustainability, adopted a qualitative System Dynamics (SD) methodology for understanding the plethora of factors that influence the overall sustainability of an international NPO. Through this methodological approach, it was found that seven themes were integral to the sustainability of this particular NPO, namely: (1) Human Resource capacity (2) Credibility of the organisation (3) Partnerships (4) Competition in the non-profit sector (5) Co-financing and funding arrangements (6) Navigating the North-South Dilemma and (7) the dynamics involved in attempts to remain apolitical. The impact of this research lies in the recognition of NPO sustainability as not being simply about the amount of funding and donations received and social impact achieved, but rather charts sustainability as an emergent and fluctuating result of the way in which the themes mentioned above (and the many variables that constitute such themes) systemically interact and influence one another.

Marketing systems: A Listen, Learn, Leverage Framework

Macromarketing provides the conceptual ground to understand marketing dynamics in a systems setting. Social marketing offers an implementation platform through which collective behavioral change may be accomplished. Qualitative system mapping from systems thinking delivers potentially powerful tools for macromarketing and social marketing in their non-linear causality pursuits. The central theme of the paper is to unveil the marketing dynamics of a complex problem. A MAS informed social marketing systems approach is presented through an inter-disciplinary case study to address the complex challenge of increasing influenza vaccination rates in a hospital systems setting. We identify the dominant behavioral and structural dynamics blocking the desired collective behaviors which present potential opportunities to interrupt the system’s current trajectory. We capture the paradoxically contradicting group choices to systemic outcomes. We show how highly participatory understandings can act as the basis for integrated multilevel, multi-stakeholder interventions to alter the evolutionary patterns over time and space in a system. We conclude that the listening, learning and leveraging processes of undertaking qualitative marketing systems dynamics mapping for collective behavioral change are a potent way forward.

Impact of sugar-sweetened beverage tax on dental caries: a simulation analysis

BackgroundThe tiered sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax was implemented in Thailand to encourage industries to reduce sugar content in beverages, and consequently reduce sugar consumption in the population. The aim of the study is to explore the expected impact of the new SSB tax policy in Thailand, a middle-income country in Asia, and other alternative policies on oral health outcomes as measured by the prevalence and severity of dental caries among the Thai population.MethodsA qualitative system dynamics model that captures the complex interrelationships among SSB tax, sugar consumption and dental caries, was elicited through participatory stakeholder engagement. Based on the qualitative model, a quantitative system dynamics model was developed to simulate the SSB tax policy and other alternative scenarios in order to evaluate their impact on dental caries among Thai adults from 2010 to 2040.ResultsUnder the base-case scenario, the dental caries prevalence among the Thai population 15 years and older, is projected to increase from 61.3% in 2010 to 74.9% by 2040. Implementation of SSB tax policy is expected to decrease the prevalence of dental caries by only 1% by 2040, whereas the aggressive policy is projected to decrease prevalence of dental caries by 21% by 2040.ConclusionsIn countries where a majority of the sugar consumed is from non-tax sugary food and beverages, especially Asian countries where street food culture is ubiquitous and contributes disproportionately to sugar intake, SSB tax alone is unlikely to have meaningful impact on oral health unless it is accompanied with a comprehensive public health policy that aims to reduce total sugar intake from non-SSB sources.

Hyperchaos co-existing with periodic orbits in a frictional oscillator

This work reports observations of complex dynamical behavior and chimera-alike dynamics in a self-excited frictional oscillator with a weak stiffness nonlinearity. Multi-stability in the form of several co-existing stable limit cycle solutions are identified for a wide range of system parameters. For a particular system configuration, an unstable periodic orbit is found that gives rise to irregular long-term behavior. Trajectories starting from this orbit turn out to be hyper-chaotic with multiple positive Lyapunov exponents. Trajectories starting from different regions in phase space converge to stable limit cycles. Hence, this numerical study reveals co-existing regular and irregular dynamics at a fixed system configuration. This sensitive dependence of the qualitative system dynamics on initial conditions adds new aspects to a better understanding of the rich dynamic behavior of structures subjected to friction-induced vibrations.

The development of complex and controversial innovations. Genetically modified mosquitoes for malaria eradication

When there is significant uncertainty in an innovation project, research literature suggests that strictly sequencing actions and stages may not be an appropriate mode of project management. We use a longitudinal process approach and qualitative system dynamics modelling to study the development of genetically modified (GM) mosquitoes for malaria eradication in an African country. Our data were collected in real time, from early scientific research to deployment of the first prototype mosquitoes in the field. The 'gene drive' technology for modifying the mosquitoes is highly complex and controversial due to risks associated with its characteristics as a living, self-replicating technology. We show that in this case the innovation journey is linear and highly structured, but also embedded within a wider system of adoption that displays emergent behaviour. Although the need to control risks associated with the technology imposes a linearity to the NPD process, there are possibilities for deviation from a more structured sequence of stages. This arises from the effects of feedback loops in the wider system of evidence creation and learning at the population and governance levels, which cumulatively impact on acceptance of the innovation. The NPD and adoption processes are therefore closely intertwined, meaning that the endpoint for R&D and beginning of 'mainstream' adoption and diffusion are unclear. A key challenge for those responsible for NPD and its regulation is to plan for the adoption of the technology while simultaneously conducting its scientific and technical development.

Understanding entrepreneurial competence and capability product innovation management in agriculture: a qualitative system dynamics perspective

There are insights to be gained from the examination of innovation processes conducted by entrepreneurs in low and medium technology (LMT) sectors such as agricultural production. The research question addressed in this paper is: How can agricultural entrepreneurs innovate with largely undifferentiated and low-margin products? The research objective is to better understand the emerging articulation of factors regarding competencies and capabilities agricultural production entrepreneurs can mobilise to innovate in LMT. The syntax of qualitative system dynamics (QSD) is used to present a dynamic hypothesis of competence and capability development by agricultural entrepreneurs. The contribution is an analysis of the underlying feedback loop structure in support of knowledge management practice in LMT product, characteristic and process innovation by agricultural entrepreneurs, and could generally be useful to understand innovation management in other LMT sectors more generally.

Understanding entrepreneurial competence and capability product innovation management in agriculture: a qualitative system dynamics perspective

There are insights to be gained from the examination of innovation processes conducted by entrepreneurs in low and medium technology (LMT) sectors such as agricultural production. The research question addressed in this paper is: How can agricultural entrepreneurs innovate with largely undifferentiated and low-margin products? The research objective is to better understand the emerging articulation of factors regarding competencies and capabilities agricultural production entrepreneurs can mobilise to innovate in LMT. The syntax of qualitative system dynamics (QSD) is used to present a dynamic hypothesis of competence and capability development by agricultural entrepreneurs. The contribution is an analysis of the underlying feedback loop structure in support of knowledge management practice in LMT product, characteristic and process innovation by agricultural entrepreneurs, and could generally be useful to understand innovation management in other LMT sectors more generally.

The impact of mobile phone use on farmers’ livelihoods in post-insurgency Northeast Nigeria

The most ubiquitous information and communications technology (ICT) in the hands of the common man today is the mobile phone. Most existing literature on the impact of mobile phones in farming has examined the various components of the farming cycle in isolation, and failed to holistically account for the complex interactions and relationships between these components. In this study, we combine the strengths of the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework (SLF) and Systems Theory (ST) as a theoretical lens to understand the impact of mobile phone use in farming and its developmental contributions on the livelihoods of smallholder farmers in post-insurgency northeast Nigeria. On the basis of empirical data and literature, we develop a qualitative system dynamics model depicting mobile phone use in farming. The main feedback loops show that the greatest bane to farming in the area is insecurity and climate variability. However, better access to information and communications afforded by mobile phones empowers farmers and enables them to overcome these vulnerabilities. The use of feedback loops in analysis provides rigour and depth to the findings due to their ability to demonstrate the interdependencies between system components. We contribute to knowledge and inform practice by extending the understanding of the impact of mobile phone use in farming through system dynmics modelling.

Impact of urban health indicators in urban planning policy and decision making: a qualitative system dynamics study

BackgroundAt least 145 urban health indicator (UHI) tools exist internationally. Previous studies have shown that public health researchers and practitioners produce them to inform built environment policy and decision making. Little research exists on their use and how it affects policy. This study used qualitative system dynamics to investigate the benefit and use of UHI tools to promote health in the complex context of urban planning policy and decision making. MethodsThis qualitative system dynamics study involved semistructured interviews with indicator producers (typically public health professionals) and indicator users (typically urban planners) in case study settings of San Francisco (CA, USA), Melbourne (VIC, Australia), and Sydney (NSW, Australia) to ascertain experts’ understandings (or mental models) of the use (ie, direct reporting of) and value (ie, knowledge gained leading to policy changes) of UHI tools in urban planning policy and decision making. Exemplifying cases of UHI tools (ie, those designed with characteristics to support policy makers) were selected from the literature and we used purposive sampling to approach potential interview participants through departmental websites and the professional network of HP. We did a thematic analysis using collaborative rationality and systems theories. We constructed causal loop diagrams (CLDs) using system dynamics methods (CLDs represented participants’ mental models). We tested whether our preliminary CLDs corresponded to experts’ views through a participatory workshop. FindingsInterviews took place on April 5–7, 2016, with six participants in the USA, and March 13–22, 2018, with 16 participants in Australia, and the workshop was on Jan 16, 2019, with six participants in the USA. Indicator users and producers had overlapping mental models of the value and use of UHI tools, and workshop participants broadly agreed with the CLDs. The thematic analysis produced five themes that were represented in CLDs, summarised as follows. Developing and applying UHI tools increases knowledge of the social determinants of health and intersectoral relationships. This supports actors to better understand each other's perspectives and helps create new advocates for health in diverse organisations, supporting health-in-all-policies or whole-of-society approaches. Community involvement in UHI tools and having effective advocates for health reduces obstacles to health-promoting policy. However, the high number of available indicators can create confusion and reduce indicator use. InterpretationUHI tools influence local urban planning when they are embedded in policy processes, networks, and institutions, which often requires long-term funding. Indicator producers should consider such resource requirements and the potential for co-producing indicators to create intersectoral relationships and better respond to users’ information needs. Further research is needed to explore how UHI tools affect the power of different actors in governance processes, particularly of under-represented communities. FundingThe Building Research Establishment (BRE) and BRE Trust.

A generalised fuzzy cognitive mapping approach for modelling complex systems

Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) were developed as a tool for capturing and modelling the behaviour of qualitative system dynamics. However, several drawbacks have been identified that limit FCMs ability in simulating the behaviour of qualitative system. This paper addresses the limitations of FCMs in modelling complex qualitative system dynamics and proposes a generalised Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) approach that is able to overcome those limitations. This approach uses fuzzy rules to represent the dynamics of concepts and relations, including time dynamics of relations and introduces a multistep simulation approach that can use several single layer perceptrons to simulate the dynamics of concepts and relations overtime. This approach also incorporates the fuzziness and ambiguity widely associated with expert knowledge when representing and simulating the dynamics of concepts and relations. In this paper, the design of the proposed generalised FCM approach is explained and demonstrated for a real-world case of the consequences of high intensity rainfall in Kampala City, Uganda. This generalised FCM approach creates a new perspective and an alternative approach to model the behaviour of complex qualitative system dynamics using FCMs.

Designing a qualitative system dynamics model of crowdfunding by document model building

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to design a qualitative model of crowdfunding dynamics through the document model building (DMB).Design/methodology/approachMethodology in this paper is the qualitative system dynamics through DMB. In DMB, the authors identify the variables that are drivers of its growth and collapse, and the model will be developed by using the systematic review of the literature.FindingsDesigning of the dynamics of crowdfunding model through DMB. Identifying variables that are drivers of crowdfunding growth and collapse. Determining leverage points in crowdfunding diffusion.Originality/valueThis paper, for the first time, with the aim of identifying and explaining the efficient positive and negative dynamics in this method, examines crowdfunding systematically and structurally.