Long-Term Dynamic Behaviour of Human Resource Needs in Ghana’s Oil Sector: System Dynamics Approach

Abstract

This study espouses a multi-strategy method comprising of a qualitative study and system dynamics (SD) to deliver the long-term dynamic behaviour of human resource development (HRD) in Ghana’s oil and gas sector. The adoption of the SD differed from previous studies addressing the local content implementation challenge of human resources, thereby allowing HRD to be considered a ‘system’ which, in turn, aided in comprehensively identifying and analysing the interrelationships among the dominant variables. Focal articles were reviewed to develop a causal loop diagram (CLD) for human resource and subsequently validated qualitatively. The CLD was used for analysing interconnections among the variables in the HRD and as a basis for developing the stock and flow diagram for projections. The study found that local content investment is projected to increase from $799 million to $3.0807 billion in 50 years, with a corresponding revenue increase from $29 billion to $44 billion in 50 years. Subsequent sensitivity analysis compared the local content model results under varying situations, which indicated the possibility of a demand for 20,000 local staff. The study further uncovered two critical issues affecting HRD, namely policy coordination and harmonisation and sustainable funding. These issues are exacerbated by the pervasive political interference in the administrative and operational functions of state oil and gas institutions.