Public Transport Subsidies Research Articles

Analisis Analysis of Public Transport Subsidy for Students in Medan City

The population continues to increase every year, and so do transportation needs. This is inseparable from the increasing number and variety of population activities. also includes educational activities. Traveling to and from school often results in traffic jams. Apart from that, many students choose to use private vehicles. which worsens air pollution and traffic congestion. Thus, the aim of this research is to create regulations governing the use of public transportation, especially for students. can facilitate student transportation to and from school. Thus, perhaps this can be implemented in the future. This is an example of how the government can provide incentives for students to use public transportation in an effort to reduce congestion caused by the use of private vehicles. The data collection process was carried out using observation, interviews, surveys and paperwork methods, then procedures for analyzing student characteristics and analyzing subsidy mechanisms. Based on various analyzes conducted, based on these findings, 69% of students are willing to switch to subsidized public transportation

JUE insight: Ticket to paradise? The effect of a public transport subsidy on air quality

This paper provides novel evidence on the impact of public transport subsidies on air pollution. We obtain causal estimates by leveraging a unique policy intervention in Germany that temporarily reduced nationwide prices for regional public transport to a monthly flat rate price of 9 Euros. Using DiD estimation strategies on air pollutant data, we show that this intervention causally reduced a benchmark air pollution index by more than eight percent and, after its termination, increased again. Our results illustrate that public transport subsidies – especially in the context of spatially constrained cities – offer a viable alternative for policymakers and city planers to improve air quality, which has been shown to crucially affect health outcomes.

Subsidization of public transit service under double moral hazard

This paper aims to explore incentive issues and characteristics of optimal contract schemes for subsidizing public transit services under double moral hazard, which refers to situations where both the regulator and the operator face incentives to engage in opportunistic behavior due to information asymmetry in the provision of public transit service. This specific aspect of the regulator-operator interrelationship has not been thoroughly investigated in the existing literature. To address this gap, we utilize principal-agent theory and develop a non-cooperative game-theoretic model to analyze the relationship between the regulator (the principal) and the operator (the agent). Through backward induction, we examine the first-best equilibrium (without moral hazard) and second-best equilibrium (under double moral hazard) solutions. Numerical analysis based on a linear contract reveals some key characteristics of the optimal subsidy contract arrangements. Our findings reveal that under double moral hazard, both the regulator and the operator only exert their second-best efforts. The result analysis shows that while higher incentives can reduce the effort required by the regulator, they can also induce the operator to work harder. The marginal effort utilities of the two parties have distinct impacts on determining the optimal sharing rule. Furthermore, we illustrate how the interaction dynamics of the efforts exerted by the two involved parties vary with the sharing rule. Our study extends the current literature by shedding light on the optimal incentive arrangements and contractual requirements for public transport subsidy contracts when considering the double moral hazard issue.

Public support for phasing out carbon-intensive technologies: the end of the road for conventional cars in Germany?

ABSTRACT Limiting the global mean temperature increase to 1.5°C requires phasing out fossil fuel combustion almost entirely within the next three decades and replacing carbon-intensive technologies with low-carbon alternatives. Such socio-technical transitions are politically feasible only if public acceptance is sufficiently high. Here we investigate German citizens’ views on the phase-out of internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) using a random forest (decision trees) classification and logistic regression model. We surveyed a demographically representative sample (N = 1,663) in 2021, finding that the majority of respondents (67%) approve of an ICEV phase-out by 2040 or hold a neutral stance. Acceptability is best predicted by the degree to which environmental problems are attributed to ICEVs, followed by respondents’ willingness to abandon cars altogether or adopt electric vehicles (EVs). Our results further indicate that acceptability can be increased by providing people with information that present EVs in a more favourable, and ICEVs in a less favourable light. When the European Commission proposed to ban the sale of ICEVs by 2035, we conducted a follow-up survey to investigate whether this had influenced acceptability in Germany – with the result that it had not. In terms of concrete policies, pull measures such as public transport or electric vehicle purchase subsidies are preferred by the public over more restrictive policies such as taxes or bans. The findings of this study shed light on different dimensions of public opinion and their important implications for policymaking and the political feasibility of this socio-technical transition. Insights from this research can help policymakers in designing effective yet widely acceptable transport decarbonization policies.

An Integrated Data Envelopment Analysis and Non-Cooperative Game Approach for Public Transportation Incentive Subsidy Allocation

As an important national initiative, China’s public transport priority development strategy is conducive to the development of the public transport industry and urban economic construction. However, current public transport operation is inefficient due to the information asymmetry between the government and public transport enterprises, thereby inevitably generating losses. To address the issue of information asymmetry, this study designs a public transport subsidy allocation method from the perspective of incentives and discusses the allocation results using this method through a case study. The rationality of the proposed method and the scientificity and authenticity of the conclusions, are fully explained and demonstrated via the experimental simulation. Based on real published data of public transport enterprises, the proposed method can motivate public transport enterprises to improve their performance. In the case of reporting false data, the proposed method can motivate public transport enterprises to report accurate data.

Linkage mechanism of public transport subsidy: considering passenger ridership, cost, fare and service quality

ABSTRACT Under the long-term implementation of the low fare policy for public transport in China, the phenomenon of unsustainable subsidies is increasingly obvious. We take into account three related stakeholders including the public, operators and government, and comprehensively consider various factors affecting public transport subsidies, and establish a linkage mechanism of the subsidy based on passenger ridership, cost, fare and service quality. We propose a combination forecasting model (CFM) composed of quadratic exponential smoothing model (QESM) and Grey theory model (GM) to forecast passenger ridership. The results show that the CFM improves the forecast accuracy of passenger ridership, the factors considered in the linkage mechanism are more comprehensive, and the results are reasonable. By using this linkage mechanism, the government or operators can establish long-term or mid-term development plans to provide a systematic and theoretical reference, which is conducive to the healthy and stable development of public transport.

The effects of public transport subsidies for lower-income users on public transport use: A quasi-experimental study

To increase public transport use, especially for individuals with lower incomes, many cities worldwide have introduced subsidies for public transport systems. However, quantitative evidence of their effects on actual ridership remains scarce, especially in Global South countries. Using a quasi-experimental regression discontinuity design (RDD) in combination with administrative data for all personalized travel cards of public transport users during the years 2017–2019 in Bogotá, Colombia, the present paper assesses the causal effect of a transport subsidy focused on low-income individuals on the number of trips that individuals undertake. Our results show that the subsidy, equaling 32% of the regular fare, significantly and substantially increases the total number of monthly public transport trips. However, the results suggest that the size of the subsidy's effect on ridership has decreased over time, while also evidencing a more pronounced effect among economically active individuals compared to inactive ones. Overall, our results suggest that public transport subsidies for low-income individuals can be an effective way for increasing public transport use among this population segment, which may translate into improved well-being because of improved access to local labor markets and recreational activities.

An incentive subsidy mechanism for bus lines based on service level

Reasonable financial subsidies can promote public transport enterprises to raise service level, attract public transport passengers and improve the efficiency of fiscal funds. There are various bus lines that make up the urban public transit network. In this study, the single bus line is taken as the research object to establish the close relationship between the service level and the subsidy. An incentive bus subsidy method including measurement and effect evaluation is proposed. The measurement method is a dual-objective model that considers public welfare and market characteristics, and aims at maximizing the expected welfare of passengers and enterprises. The effect evaluation method of the incentive subsidy is designed to manage bus enterprises by the calculation and comparison of service level indicators. A practical example is presented to verify the effectiveness of the bus subsidy method, and shows how to regulate the bus enterprises when the bus service level declines. This study provides a method for the scientific design of incentive bus subsidies, which can encourage bus enterprises to improve their level of service, and help the government to optimize the decision-making on public transport subsidy policy.

Linkage Mechanism of Public Transport Subsidy: Considering Passenger Ridership, Cost, Fare and Service Quality

Linkage Mechanism of Public Transport Subsidy: Considering Passenger Ridership, Cost, Fare and Service Quality

Optimizing the Subsidy Calculation Model of Urban Public Transport

In recent years, to alleviate and resolve the traffic problems in China, the government introduced a series of policies to subsidize public transportation. Accordingly, to effectively implement these financial subsidies, the formulation of a scientific model of urban public transport subsidy calculation, strict control of the total amount of financial subsidies, and clear identification of subsidy targets are necessary. In this study, a linear dual model is developed based on the principle of resource allocation and the economic meaning of shadow prices. The public transportation system of a city in China is considered an example, and both public transport operators and public interest stakeholders are considered. The subsidy calculation for service quality improvement is established for public transportation operations and vehicle transformation. Based on the validation using the above example, the calculation result is found to approximate the actual value, indicating the feasibility of the proposed model. Finally, this article presents suggestions pertaining to subsidy mechanism, operating environment, and service quality as a reference for urban public transport subsidies.

The boundary between random and non-random passenger arrivals: Robust empirical evidence and economic implications

In this paper, we investigate the influence of train headways on passenger platform wait times using automated data from the London Underground metro system. For high frequency services, the literature suggests that passenger arrivals are random and that under perfectly random conditions with all other factors held constant, wait times are equivalent to half of the headway between trains. We test this hypothesis using large-scale smart card and vehicle location data, which enables the extraction of access times from total passenger journey times as well as the precise measurement of train headways. Using a semiparametric regression modelling framework, we generate non-linear estimates of the relationship between access times and headway while conditioning for other service supply and demand factors. Marginal platform wait times are then derived numerically via an exposure–response model framework which accounts for potential confounding between the walking and waiting components of access times, thus enabling quantification of the unbiased impact of headways on wait times. For three lines in central London, we observe that marginal wait times transition from greater than half of the headway to approximately one third of the headway as train frequencies decrease. The transition occurs in the range between 2-3 min headways, lower than earlier estimates in the literature. A series of numerical simulations illustrate the importance of waiting time sensitivity in the optimisation of public transport services. In comparison with the standard wait time assumption, our exercise reveals that the degree of density economies is milder than what the literature suggests, and this may neutralise some of the economic justifications of high public transport subsidies.

From causal loop diagrams to future scenarios: Using the cross-impact balance method to augment understanding of urban health in Latin America

Urban health is shaped by a system of factors spanning multiple levels and scales, and through a complex set of interactions. Building on causal loop diagrams developed via several group model building workshops, we apply the cross-impact balance (CIB) method to understand the strength and nature of the relationships between factors in the food and transportation system, and to identify possible future urban health scenarios (i.e., permutations of factor states that impact health in cities).We recruited 16 food and transportation system experts spanning private, academic, non-government, and policy sectors from six Latin American countries to complete an interviewer-assisted questionnaire. The questionnaire, which was pilot tested on six researchers, used a combination of questions and visual prompts to elicit participants’ perceptions about the bivariate relationships between 11 factors in the food and transportation system. Each participant answered questions related to a unique set of relationships within their domain of expertise.Using CIB analysis, we identified 21 plausible future scenarios for the system. In the baseline model, ‘healthy’ scenarios (with low chronic disease, high physical activity, and low consumption of highly processed foods) were characterized by high public transportation subsidies, low car use, high street safety, and high free time, illustrating the links between transportation, free time and dietary behaviors. In analyses of interventions, low car use, high public transport subsidies and high free time were associated with the highest proportion of factors in a healthful state and with high proportions of ‘healthy’ scenarios. High political will for social change also emerged as critically important in promoting healthy systems and urban health outcomes.The CIB method can play a novel role in augmenting understandings of complex urban systems by enabling insights into future scenarios that can be used alongside other approaches to guide urban health policy planning and action.

Transport taxes and subsidies in developing countries: The effect of income inequality aversion

We propose a marginal tax reform model that includes both formal and informal sectors in the economy, traffic externalities (congestion, pollution, crashes and noise) and distributional concerns. The marginal cost of public funds (MCF) is derived for fuel taxes and public transport subsidies. The model is applied to Santiago, Chile. If MCFs are computed only taking economic efficiency into account, a revenue neutral reform within the transport sector suggests increasing the car cost and reducing the bus fare in peak periods, and reducing the car cost and increasing the bus fare in off-peak periods. However, including income inequality aversion leads to suggesting lower bus fares and higher car costs in both peak and off-peak periods, significantly changing the economic assessment of current tax and subsidy instruments. The inclusion of traffic externalities has a large effect on the MCF for fuel tax and a mild effect on MCF for bus subsidy.

Is it expensive to be poor? Public transport in Sweden

One of the reasons to subsidise public transport is to improve the mobility of low-income groups by providing affordable public transport; however, the literature describes a situation whereby those with a low income are unable to afford the cheapest tickets per trip, i.e. travelcards, as they usually require a considerable up-front cost. In this study, we use a large dataset from the Swedish National Travel Survey to investigate whether, and if so how, income explains monthly travelcard possession among individuals for whom this would have been the least expensive option. We find a robust positive relationship between income and travelcard possession among low-income earners, indicating that those with a low income pay more to use public transport than more affluent individuals. As the accessibility of low-income groups is an important motivation for public transport subsidies, the findings from this study have important policy implications.

How public transport subsidy policies in China affect the average passenger load factor of a bus line

This study applies inventory theory to illustrate the internal relationship between the average passenger load factor and choice of public transport subsidy policy by the government. Subsidy policies are broadly classified into four types: fixed amount subsidy, passenger volume subsidy, vehicle trip subsidy, and incentive mechanism subsidy. A bus supply model with the objective of minimizing expected loss is formulated with demand considered to be a continuous random variable. We then analyse, using numerical examples, how the four subsidy policies affect the model-related parameters and the average passenger load factor. Results show that, in terms of reducing the average passenger load factor, the fixed-amount subsidy has no effect while the passenger volume subsidy and vehicle trip subsidy have limited effects, although the latter is more effective than the former. Further, the incentive mechanism subsidy requires an appropriate unit penalty value to reach the appropriate average passenger load factor. A combination of the vehicle trip subsidy and an appropriate incentive mechanism subsidy is the most effective method to improve the average passenger load factor. However, the effectiveness is constrained by the bus supply capacity.

Evolutionary game analysis on the implementation of subsidy policy for sustainable transportation development

The priority development of public transport cannot be achieved without the support of the government’s fiscal and taxation policies, while the implementation of the subsidy policy is the joint effect of multiple stakeholders. This paper analyzes the implementation mechanism of public transport subsidy policy from the perspective of carbon emission to discuss the evolutionary stability strategy of tripartite game under different situations, thereby clarifying the key factors affecting the evolutionary path of the stability strategy through simulation. The main conclusions achieved are as follows: (1) When the subsidy and sunk cost are greater than the improper profit brought by the false report, and the travel cost (time and economy) of public transport is greater than that of the individual motorized travel combined, the three will eventually arrive at the state in which government chooses no-audit, the enterprise chooses true report, and the resident choose public transport; (2) More government supervision can help reduce the false reporting behavior of public transport enterprises in the implementation of public transport subsidy policy; (3) The punishment and the improper profit brought by the false report are also the key factors that influence the behavior decision-making of the government and the enterprises; (4) The economic cost of travel plays an important role in the evolution path of residents’ stabilization strategy, yet is of little significance on the behavior decision of enterprises and governments. From the perspective of sustainable transportation development, it is necessary for the government to control or even reduce the ticket price of public transport, and to increase the economic cost of individual motorized travel.

Distributional effects of public transport subsidies

We analyze the distribution of transit subsidies across population groups in Stockholm. We develop a novel methodology that takes into account that the subsidy per passenger varies across transit links, since production costs and load factors vary. With this, we calculate the subsidy per trip in the transit network and analyze the distribution of subsidies across population groups. The average subsidy rate in Stockholm is 44%, but the variation across trips turns out to be large: while 34% of the trips are not subsidized at all but generates a profit, 16% of the trips have a subsidy rate higher than 2/3. We calculate the concentration index to explore the distribution of subsidies across income groups. The average subsidy per person is similar for all income groups, except for the top income quintile. This holds not only for the current flat-fare system, but also for distance-based fares and fares with a constant subsidy rate. Transit subsidies is hence not effective as a redistribution policy in Stockholm. The largest systematic variation we find is across residential areas: the average subsidy per person is five times higher in the peripheral areas of the region compared to the regional core, and the subsidy per trip is ten times higher.

Bike-sharing systems’ impact on modal shift: A case study in Delft, the Netherlands

Bike-sharing systems have witnessed rapid growth in the last decades. Bike-sharing has been found to influence modal shift from car, public transit, and active transportation modes. However, the impacts on modal shift by considering different kinds of bike-sharing systems are rarely discussed. This study examines the modal shift dynamics and the influential factors on modal shift in response to various bike-sharing systems. Data are obtained by an online survey targeting both non-bike-sharing users and bike-sharing users in a Dutch context. Binary logit models are developed to investigate the relationship between modal shift to bike-sharing with socio-demographic, commuting trip and motivation factors. The survey results show that dockless bike-sharing (Mobike) users are more likely to be non-Dutch and often have no driving license, whereas the situation is opposite for docked bike-sharing (OV-fiets), bicycle-lease (Swapfiets) and non-bike-sharing users. Except for train use, bike-sharing users reduced walking, the use of private bicycle, bus/tram and car. Swapfiets showed a most significant influence on modal shift for both single and multimodal trips. The regression model results indicate that “No stolen/damage problem” and “Cheaper than other modes” are significant factors promoting dockless bike-sharing and bicycle-lease. “Good quality of bicycles” is a significant factor considered by docked bike-sharing and bicycle-lease users. “Public transport subsidy by employer” encourages commuters to shift to docked bike-sharing, whereas individuals with a government student discount are less likely to shift to Swapfiets. Male and multimodal commuters are more likely to use dockless bike-sharing. Commuters are less likely to shift to docked bike-sharing if the trips are “Short” or suitable for “Private bicycle”. The findings provide a clear understanding of the modal shift and its determinants that can help municipal planning and policy decision-making in terms of bike-sharing systems.

Assessing economic instruments to steer urban residential sprawl, using a hedonic pricing simulation modelling approach

Over the past centuries, cities have undergone major transformations that led to global urbanization. One of the phenomena emerging from urbanization is urban sprawl, defined as the uncontrolled spread of cities into undeveloped areas. The decrease in housing prices and commuting costs as well as the failure to internalize the real costs associated with natural land, led to households moving-out into the urban fringe – resulting in fragmented, low-density residential development patterns that has multiple negative impacts. Awareness for this problem has fed the need for the implementation of effective policies against urban residential sprawl – a subject that has received considerable attention in literature, albeit little attention has been given to economic incentive instruments. Hence, the objective of this paper is to assess the effectiveness of different economic instruments in steering urban residential sprawl – assessing property taxes, land taxes and public transport subsidies. To this end, the Sustainable Urbanizing Landscape Development (SULD) model is used and adapted, and a case study is provided for the medium-sized City of Aveiro in central Portugal. Results show that a flat property tax and a public transport subsidy for low and middle-income households are the most efficient instruments, leading to a decrease in urban residential area, living space and housing quantity as well as an increase in real estate values. On the other hand, a land tax results in insignificant changes in urban residential development patterns.

Benefits of transport subsidisation: Comparing findings from a customer perception survey and Most Significant Change Technique interviews

Background: An evaluation of a transport subsidisation programme in the Western Cape, South Africa, was undertaken to capture the outcomes and benefits of the service from the perspective of the bus user. Objectives: The objective of this article was to compare the findings from the adopted parallel mixed-methods design that included a perception survey and the Most Significant Change (MSC) technique. The article presented the advantages of each approach and reflected on the benefits and challenges in applying the MSC technique. Method: Data on the intended outcomes of the Provincial Transport Operations Grant programme were collected from 458 commuters on four bus routes through a structured close-ended questionnaire. The MSC technique was applied to collect 69 stories of change that captured changes regarded as most significant by beneficiaries of the public transport subsidy. Results: It was found that the survey better captured the intended and predetermined objectives of the programme, while the large response group allowed for comparisons and cross-tabulations. The MSC interviews better captured the real-life experience of participants and identified the benefits most valued by commuters, including outcomes not specifically anticipated by the programme. It also served to clarify contradicting responses or ratings on the closed-ended questionnaire and informed further bivariate analysis of the structured questionnaire data. Conclusion: To maximise benefits from the MSC technique, sufficient time is needed to solicit value responses from respondents, while decision-makers should allow time for multiple iterations and discussions at different levels of the hierarchy.