Public Opinion Surveys Research Articles

Modern Perception of Japan by Vladivostok Citizens (Based on a 2021 Survey)

This article presents an analysis of the contemporary perception of Japan by the Vladivostok citizens, as well as their views of the current state of Russia-Japan relations and their prospects. The research is based on the results of a survey conducted in May–September 2021 by the Public Opinion Studies Laboratory of the Institute of History of the Far East Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The data obtained are compared with the results of similar investigations of previous years and Vladivostok people’s views of other countries that are significant for Vladivostok, namely, China, the USA, India, and the two Koreas.The authors point out that the Japanese factor has played an important role in the history of the city, and therefore Japan attracts so much attention of the city’s dwellers. In their opinion, the high level of attractiveness of Japan which, in the past two decades, has been recorded by public opinion surveys in Vladivostok and other centers of Pacific Russia is based, primarily, on the people’s interest in the unique culture of the Land of the Rising Sun, their high assessment of the economic and technological development of Japan and the prosperity of the Japanese people. At the same time, the historical experience of Russia-Japan relations and the political contradictions existing between the two countries make a large part of the respondents (about one-third of their total number) believe that there are threats to Russia from Japan, which are naturally associated with Japan’s territorial claims. Yet, the Vladivostok residents, for the most part, demonstrate a fairly high level of trust in Japan, positively assess the quality of current Russia-Japan relations and prospects for their future, and favor their active development.

Online Surveys in Latin America

ABSTRACTOnline surveys of public opinion are less expensive and faster to administer than other surveys. However, nonprobability online samples diverge from the gold standard of probabilistic sampling. Although scholars have examined the quality of nonprobability samples in the United States and Europe, we know little about how these samples perform in developing contexts. We use nine online surveys fielded in six Latin American countries to examine the bias in these samples. We also ask whether two common tools that researchers use to mitigate sample bias—post-stratification and sample matching—improve these online samples. We find that online samples in the region exhibit high levels of bias, even in countries where Internet access is widespread. We also find that post-stratification does little to improve sample quality; sample matching outperforms the provider’s standard approach, but the gains are substantively small. This is partly because unequal Internet access and lack of investment in panel recruitment means that providers are unlikely to have enough panelists in lower socioeconomic categories to draw representative online samples, regardless of the sampling method. Researchers who want to draw conclusions about the attitudes or behaviors of the public as a whole in contexts like Latin America still need probability samples.

Societal dangers of migrant crisis narratives with a special focus on Belarussian and Ukrainian borders with Poland.

Society in the 21st century has experienced a variety of crises, from the fiscal crisis and the migration crisis to the pandemic and the inflation crisis. This paper aims to explore societal dangers of migrant crises narratives. This paper forms part of the Horizon 2020 MIMY research projects with an expert stakeholder Delphi study from seven European countries: Germany, Italy, Poland, Romania, Luxembourg, Sweden and the UK. It takes also into account contextual international and national public opinion surveys. We formulated a number of societal dangers related to the migrant crisis narrative, which are not sharp and exclusive but invite further consideration: (1) Societal fatigue, which relates to a rapid change in societal moods, usually from a positive to a negative attitude toward migrants, but above all this danger is connected with an aid burnout in a civil society; (2) Othering, which includes normativity, the labeling of migrants, double or multiple standards in the treatment of migrants and refugees from various origins; the societal danger of othering contributes to societal divisions, polarizations, tensions and conflicts based on ethnicity, religion, race and gender; (3) Political functionality, whereby migration as a political construct serves as a "whipping boy" for politicians to divert public opinion from recurrent problems; it also involves the creation of piecemeal, reactionary, ad hoc public policies, and the overuse of a protocol of a state of emergency in order to bring about a centralization of political power.

Terrorism, Trust, and Identity: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Nigeria

AbstractWe study the effects of terrorism on political trust and national versus ethnic identification. Making use of unexpected attacks by the extremist group Boko Haram in Nigeria, which occurred during the fieldwork of a public opinion survey in 2014, we show that even in a context of weak state institutions and frequent terrorist activities, terror attacks significantly increase political trust. We also find that the attacks significantly reduced the salience of respondents' national identity, instead increasing ethnic identification. These findings run counter to arguments that “rally around the flag” effects following terror attacks result from increased patriotism. The results have important implications for understanding the effects of terrorism in contexts of weak state institutions, frequent political violence, and politically salient ethnic divisions.

Racializing human rights: political orientation, racial beliefs, and media use as predictors of support for human rights violations – a case study of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict

ABSTRACT To what extent do political orientation, racial beliefs, and media use contribute to explaining support for human rights violations? To address these question, we draw on Adorno's “authoritarian personality” theory by proposing the concept of “racial syndrome,” resulting in affinity for expressions of support for right-wing ideologies. Using a public opinion survey conducted among Jewish-Israeli adults (N = 1,001), we show that political orientation and racial beliefs contribute to explaining support for human rights violations and that racial beliefs mediate the association between political orientation and support for human rights violations, measured as support for child arrest in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Moreover, the use of mainstream media moderates the association of political orientation with both racial beliefs and support for human rights violations, but the use of digital media does not. This study calls upon journalists, activists, and policymakers to engage responsibly in reducing racialized beliefs and promoting justice and human rights.

Distinctive Voices: Political Speech, Rhetoric, and the Substantive Representation of Women in European Parliaments

As the share of women in parliaments rises, increased attention is paid to how they substantively represent women. Meanwhile, the availability of parliamentary speech data has enabled researchers to dissect politicians’ rhetorical patterns. We combine these two literatures to ask whether rhetorical differences between men and women in parliament are connected to style, policy, and preferences of women voters. We apply machine‐learning models to speeches from five West European parliaments (2000–18) to measure the femininity of the rhetoric used in each speech. Results show that women and men talk differently in parliament, and that this distinctiveness is due to both style and substance. Combining these results with public opinion surveys, we find that women MPs have the most distinctively “feminine” discourse on issues that are most salient to women in society. These findings showcase the direct connection between descriptive and substantive representation of women in contemporary democracies.

An integrated risk assessment method for cross-regional mega construction projects

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to develop a novel integrated risk assessment method from the system perspective to evaluate the risk of the cross-regional mega construction project (CMCP). Furthermore, this paper aims to confirm the core risk source factors and refine the risk management strategies of CMCPs through a case study.Design/methodology/approachBased on the analysis of the risk system of CMCPs, the concept model and risk assessment principles of integrated risk assessment were confirmed. The risk source factors and project objectives of the CMCP were identified from a literature review, export interview and case analysis. According to the vulnerability theory, the integrated risk assessment model was developed by involving vulnerabilities, threats, objectives and interaction of those factors synthetically. Then, ZW high-speed railway from China was analyzed to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.FindingsAs a result, 12 threat factors and 12 vulnerability factors were identified. Based on the case study, the main external threat comes from T13 (conflicts of interest between local governments) and T23 (harsh natural environment); the most easily exploited internal vulnerabilities were V11 (complexity of technology), V13 (lack of experience in technical application), V21 (inadequate experience) and V23 (lack of interest coordination mechanism). Moreover, the economic objective was most affected.Practical implicationsIt is essential to develop an interest coordination mechanism for CMCPs. The harsh natural environment is a critical factor, but it also promotes technological innovation and iteration. Public opinions in different regions are critical for CMCPs, and more emphasis should be placed on public opinion surveys of CMCPs. Moreover, diverse and flexible environmental protection strategies should apply in CMCPs.Originality/valueThis research has the following three contributions. First, based on vulnerability theory, an integrated risk assessment approach of CMCPs is developed, which enriches the risk measurement method system and provides inspiration for future research on risk in the construction industry. Second, the risk sources of CMCPs are identified from the perspective of vulnerability and threat to provide clear guidance for the risk management of CMCPs. Third, the core risk source factors and management strategies confirmed by the case study will be beneficial for various governments in different regions and project managers to optimize the project management scheme, as they are transferable management experiences.

Ukrajinski rat i rusofobija "druge Srbije"

In the first part of the article, the theoretical framework of the analysis is given and the basic terms are explained. The second part presents examples of Russophobia in the texts of some members of the media and cultural elite in Serbia even before the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. The third part describes the escalation of Russophobia among that part of the elite after the Russian intervention in Ukraine (2022). The fourth part provides an overview of seven surveys of public opinion in Serbia (2022-2023). All these surveys show a high proportion of Serbian citizens (about 80%) who do not agree with the introduction of sanctions against Russia. An overview of attempts to ignore these findings by a part of the Russophobic elite in Serbia is also given. In the fifth part, the further escalation of Russophobia among the elite is described, and in the sixth part, an explanation of this phenomenon is presented from the perspective of the world system theory

Public Opinion Survey on Restart and New Construction of Nuclear Power Plants in Japan: Extraction of Public’s Important Concern and Attitude Change by Solution

Public Opinion Survey on Restart and New Construction of Nuclear Power Plants in Japan: Extraction of Public’s Important Concern and Attitude Change by Solution

The role of the International Community as a pivotal and reliable actor in democratic transition in Albania!

The paper analyses the role of various actors in the democratization process in Albania, with specific emphasis on one key participant. It is structured into three distinctive sections: the first identifies the domestic actors in the beginning of transition, such as the political class, civil society, knowledge elite, media etc, highlighting the political class as the most powerful and influential of them. However, the paper argues that instead of being a reliable and responsible factor in the process of democratization and integration, the Albanian political elite has shown a chronic lack of responsibility, willingness, professionalism and commitment to tackle the country’s major problems. Its primary objective has been its own self-interest and self-preservation. On the other hand, since Albania opened up to the world, another actor has been crucial for the country, the international community. The subsequent section focuses on this external actor, which has played a significant role throughout the three-decade transition period. It asserts that inability of local actors to deal with domestic challenges and cooperate with one another have ‘promoted’ this actor, which has been trying to fulfill the role of facilitator and mediator that the state institutions have proved unable to perform. The lack of legitimacy and the unreliability of political parties and other domestic actors have increasingly amplified the importance of this actor. Therefore, the paper argues that legitimacy in Albania lies with the international community and its verdict tends to be considered as final. This is also reflected in public opinion surveys, indicating that Albanian citizens trust much more international than national institutions. The third section analyses the impact and influence exerted by the two most significant external actors: the European Union, whose significance escalated notably post-2000 owing to Albania’s aspirational EU membership, steering reforms and providing financial assistance; and the United States, which, through its diplomats and ambassadors, has been very proactive in Albanian politics, helping the country to overcome persistent problems as corruption and organized crime, and more recently the judiciary reform. The paper concludes that Albanian road towards democratization could have had a different trajectory without the involvement and guidance of the international community pushing for and directing reforms. While acknowledging the significance of assistance from external driving forces, the primary onus for the progress of a country should rest upon its domestic actors. Keywords: International community, domestic actors, political class, transition, democratization, European integration, the European Union, the United States.

Attitudes Towards Russia and the USA in the Public Opinion of Modern China

The acute Russian-American confrontation made it important to reveal the attitude of international public opinion towards Russia the United States, especially in countries such as China. But the specifics of the attitudes of the population towards foreign states makes it necessary to analyze many aspects of these attitudes, preferably over a long period of time. Since public opinion poll data is usually severely limited both in the number of indicators and in temporal coverage, there is a need to summarize as many polls conducted by different organizations as possible. In this article, such a generalization is made on the basis of eight large-scale public opinion surveys covering the period from 2004 to 2022, including the time shortly before and after the start of the SMO (special military operation). An analysis of survey data reveals that public opinion in the PRC from 2004 to 2021 consistently treated Russia much more favorably: a large majority systematically expressed positive attitudes, the gap of which from attitudes towards the United States frequently exceeded 50%. With the onset of SMO, this positive attitude worsened in some aspects, improved in others, everywhere by an insignificant amount. Attitudes towards the United States also slightly worsened. Thus, we can confidently say that the public opinion of modern China has a very positive attitude towards Russia, rather negatively towards the United States, the beginning of the SMO, in general, did not change this situation, and the current events are not perceived by the Chinese public as extraordinary, requiring revision of views on international relations.

A onda pró-ciência em tempos de negacionismo: percepção da sociedade brasileira sobre ciência, cientistas e universidades na pandemia da COVID-19

Abstract This article presents the results of our study on the public perception of science during the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil, carried out at the Centro de Estudos SoU_Ciência, from Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP). To answer the question: “Has the COVID-19 pandemic changed the perception of Brazilian society about science, scientists, and universities?”, quantitative and qualitative studies were conducted between August 2021 and July 2022. In national quantitative public opinion surveys, we collected exclusive data from a historical series of polls on the subject in Brazil, and in focus groups, we deepened studies on the perception and political position of different social segments. Amid the growth of scientific denialism; political and social setbacks; and the dismantling of public policies, specifically scientific and technological, resulting from the impeachment of 2016 and the election of Bolsonaro in 2018, research indicates, apparently contrary to an obscurantist political tendency, a significant expansion of public interest in science during the pandemic in the country. This paper analyzes the emergence of a “pro-science wave” in public opinion in Brazil, the factors that led to its emergence during the pandemic, and its current prospects.

Examining Disruptions of Social Systems due to Large Dam Projects in the North East

The vulnerability of the tribals to lose more than the commodity value of land due to large dam projects in the North East has not been given due attention both in policy space and empirical research. Also, the question of whether the living standards of the already displaced tribals have improved after dam construction has not been treated with rigour. The paper tries to disaggregate the social disruption effects of large dam construction along the lines of gender, religious identity and ethnic conflicts and question the conventional economics of resettlement. The study examines the claimed effects (and benefits) of large dams on tribal communities made in non-empirical papers and government documents using available real-world examples from the north-east. The study also validates the findings from the literature through a sentiment analysis of newspaper articles and a public opinion survey of dams in the north-east. This crossexamination is expected to serve as a foundation for further empirical research.

Rodzina jako wartość podstawowa w świadomości młodzieży szkolnej

In this article, we will delve into two key aspects: the family as a fundamental and prioritized value within everyday values and the aspirations of young people regarding marriage. The sociological analysis is grounded in the outcomes of public opinion surveys and research conducted in the first and second decades of the 21st century. Throughout the 20th century and the initial decade of the 21st century, family and contented family life consistently held the top spot among the life goals of Poles, standing out as one of the most cherished values. However, in the course of the accelerated transformation of Polish society, success or a thriving professional career is emerging as a distinct life value for young Poles, competing to some extent with the significance attributed to family. Notably, around 60% of respondents among school youth express a commitment to formal marriage in their future plans.

The Issue of Independence in Opinion Polls in Wales in 2017–2023

This study presents and analyzes the results of public opinion surveys conducted in Wales in 2017–2023 regarding the political future of the region. Using quantitative, comparative and systemic methods, the political solutions proposed by the Welsh were identified. The aim of the study is to answer the question whether current centrifugal tendencies may lead to Wales gaining independence in the foreseeable future.

Россия и русские сквозь призму общественного мнения Японии (2022–2023)

For seven and a half decades, under the influence of American standards, the Japanese media sphere and, above all, the new media worked to consolidate in the minds of the Japanese the image of Russia as a country that is obsessed with the task of “expansion syndrome”. This study proves the hypothesis that after the start of the special military operation in Ukraine, these efforts of the mass media and part of the intellectual elite of Japan drastically and rapidly raised Russophobic sentiments in society to a critical maximum. A comparative analysis of the Japanese discourse related to the Ukrainian crisis, on the one hand, and the official public opinion surveys, on the other, have shown that the Japanese mass media have been extremely efficient in forming a biased and distorted vision of Russia and the Russians among the Japanese audience. At the same time, the unprecedented upsurge in anti-Russian sentiments directly correlates not only with the intensity of the propaganda campaign in the mass media but with the scale of sanctions/counter-sanctions politics as well. Based on in-depth interviews and personal observation during two semesters at a Japanese university (in 2020 and 2022–2023), the author concludes that the Japanese-Russian relations have entered a “deep freeze” zone and there is nowhere for the relationship to deteriorate further. Though the corridor of opportunities for rapprochement in the present has narrowed dramatically, the abnormal situation cannot last indefinitely, and it is necessary to work patiently on the future design of relations between Moscow and Tokyo. As a starting point, it is necessary to maintain humanitarian exchanges of researchers, teachers, students and graduate students in order not to lose the potential for restauration and consolidation of contacts at a new level in future.

Explorando la factibilidad del Seguro de Desempleo en Nuevo León

This paper explores the feasibility of unemployment insurance in Nuevo León, Mexico. It starts by exploring the policy context, in which we pay special attention to societal challenges such as robotization that can revitalize the debate on a social policy that was historically absent from the Mexican welfare state. The paper proposes a model of unemployment insurance adapted to this context, drawing on insights from a literature study, a public opinion survey and a cost calculation. The innovative feature of this model is adaptability, where key variables change along with the situation on the labor market.

When corruption investigations come to nothing: A natural experiment on trust in courts

AbstractCorruption scandals and their investigation have been shown to undermine support not only for the allegedly involved public officials but also for political actors and institutions more generally. However, we know little about what happens when those investigations end up failing to result in punishments. Is citizens' trust in the legal authorities in charge of prosecuting and punishing corruption also undermined? Do those effects spill over to political actors, institutions, and even the political regime? We address these questions by taking advantage of an April 2021 judicial decision to drop corruption charges against former Portuguese Prime Minister José Sócrates during the fieldwork of a public opinion survey. We show that the decision had a substantial negative impact on public trust in the courts. Furthermore, although political trust was not immediately affected, its overall levels also became lower in comparison to periods before the judicial decision, suggesting a spillover effect.

The Big Lie: Expressive Responding and Misperceptions in the United States

AbstractMisinformation about events surrounding the 2020 election and the COVID-19 pandemic pose an existential threat to American democracy and public health. Public opinion surveys reveal that high percentages of Republicans indicate that they endorse some aspects of mistaken beliefs surrounding election fraud in the 2020 election. Still, understanding how to measure the endorsement of misperceptions is critical for understanding the threat at hand. Are high levels of mistaken beliefs genuinely held, or are they partially a function of expressive responding? I address this question through a set of survey experiments encouraging accuracy-oriented processing among the general public. Using well-powered surveys of Republicans and Independents, I find that treatments designed to encourage more accurate responses are ineffective in reducing the endorsement of partisan electoral and public health misperceptions and can in some cases even backfire. These findings suggest that support for these misperceptions is genuinely held.

Basking in Their Glory? Expressive Partisanship among People of Color Before and After the 2020 US Election

AbstractAs the number of people of color (PoC) grows in the United States, a key question is how partisanship will develop among this important electoral group. Yet many open questions remain about PoC partisanship, due to limited availability of panel data, a lack of sensitive instrumentation, and small samples of PoC in most public opinion surveys. This brief report leverages a unique panel of African American (N = 650) and Latino (N = 650) eligible voters, before and after the 2020 Presidential Election between Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Donald Trump. Using measures that tap expressive partisan, racial, and national identity attachments, we find that Biden’s electoral victory significantly intensified partisan identity among his Democratic PoC supporters, relative to PoC who were not Democrats and supported Trump. We do not find significant changes in racial or national identities. Our results advance research on PoC’s partisanship.