Shifts In Public Opinion Research Articles

Using Twitter to track immigration sentiment during early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic

AbstractLarge-scale coordinated efforts have been dedicated to understanding the global health and economic implications of the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet, the rapid spread of discrimination and xenophobia against specific populations has largely been neglected. Understanding public attitudes toward migration is essential to counter discrimination against immigrants and promote social cohesion. Traditional data sources to monitor public opinion are often limited, notably due to slow collection and release activities. New forms of data, particularly from social media, can help overcome these limitations. While some bias exists, social media data are produced at an unprecedented temporal frequency, geographical granularity, are collected globally and accessible in real-time. Drawing on a data set of 30.39 million tweets and natural language processing, this article aims to measure shifts in public sentiment opinion about migration during early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Results show an increase of migration-related Tweets along with COVID-19 cases during national lockdowns in all five countries. Yet, we found no evidence of a significant increase in anti-immigration sentiment, as rises in the volume of negative messages are offset by comparable increases in positive messages. Additionally, we presented evidence of growing social polarization concerning migration, showing high concentrations of strongly positive and strongly negative sentiments.

Communicating risk in human-wildlife interactions: How stories and images move minds.

Effectively communicating risk is critical to reducing conflict in human-wildlife interactions. Using a survey experiment fielded in the midst of contentious public debate over flying fox management in urban and suburban areas of Australia, we find that stories with characters (i.e., narratives) are more effective than descriptive information at mobilizing support for different forms of bat management, including legal protection, relocation, and habitat restoration. We use conditional process analysis to show that narratives, particularly with accompanying images, are effective because they cause emotional reactions that influence risk perception, which in turn drives public opinion about strategies for risk mitigation. We find that prior attitudes towards bats matter in how narrative messages are received, in particular in how strongly they generate shifts in affective response, risk perception, and public opinion. Our results suggest that those with warm prior attitudes towards bats report greater support for bat dispersal when they perceive impacts from bats to be more likely, while those with cool priors report greater support for bat protection when they perceive impacts from bats to be more positive, revealing 1) potential opportunities for targeted messaging to boost public buy-in of proposals to manage risks associated with human-wildlife interactions, and 2) potential vulnerabilities to disinformation regarding risk.

Minority governments and Canada’s confused foreign investment policy

Three case studies demonstrate that federal limits on foreign investment in Canada have been motivated by political not economic considerations. The cases—the abortive 1963 tax on foreign takeovers, the 1973–1974 creation of the Foreign Investment Review Agency, and the 2008 and 2010 decisions to block the purchase of two Canadian companies—shared many features. All three involved minority governments that were vulnerable to shifts in public opinion. All three governments were skeptical about turning away foreign capital. Yet all three undertook measures to limit investment. All three then abandoned the policy as soon as political circumstances changed. This decision-making process helps explain why Canadian foreign investment policy has often been confused and inconsistent.

I Can’t Breathe

Since 2014, public opinion data suggests that whites have become more supportive of the Black Lives Movement. The recent murders of George Floyd and Breonna Taylor have prompted a national debate about the need to address systemic racism in policing within the United States. Recent studies have shown how racial resentment has spilled over into a wide range of political issues that are not associated with race; however, no current research examines how racial resentment might shape whites’ views toward Black Lives Matter. Employing the racial reaction theory and the 2016 American Election Study Survey, we hypothesize and confirm that whites with high levels of racial resentment, conservative ideology, and those who indicated support for Donald Trump hold negative attitudes toward the Black Lives Matter movement. Our results also show that Asians and Hispanics hold negative attitudes toward the Black Lives Matter movement, but that whites have the highest racial resentment levels. The results raise doubts about whether the recent shift in white public opinion is sustainable. Given that racial resentment is a predictor of support for Black Lives Matter, scholars and activists should approach white support for Black Lives Matter with caution because it is likely that increased racial resentment may lead to sustained white opposition to the movement.

Examining the efficacy of constancy and frequency as political strategies for assisted suicide legalization: Does the introduction of many bills over time or multiple bills at once increase the likelihood of assisted suicide bills passing in U.S. state legislatures?

Attempts to legalize assisted suicide has historically presented a unique set of political and procedural challenges in state legislatures, the result of which has been the overwhelming defeat of nearly 98% such attempts in the last 25 years. Only in recent years is this trend beginning to change. Vermont was the first state to adopt legislation in 2013, followed by California, and Washington DC in 2015. In 2018, Hawaii was added to the list and most recently, New Jersey, and Maine in 2019. Other trends have become evident as well. Whereas between 1995 and 2013 there was a median of nine bills introduced by six states in a given biennium, this has increased to 31 bills in 24 states between 2015 and 2019, And while until 2013, only two or three states at most would have more than a single bill in play, the median has now doubled to five states and Washington DC since 2015. This paper examines whether or not these recent trends are in fact, political strategies that could explain and potentially predict success in future sessions. We examine the efficacy of constancy (the perseverance of introducing bills over multiple sessions) and frequency (introducing multiple bills in the same session) using both the six successful attempts as well as 264 failed attempts since 1994. Comparing the common attributes of successful legalization as well as failures, perseverance cannot be ruled out as a beneficial variable, but can only be vindicated with more data in the future. There was no evidence across all the data to suggest that multiple bills contributed to success. The data also shows that ideological liberalism is currently a necessary but not sufficient condition to pass assisted suicide bills, although it is expected to become more significant as the issue settles down party lines. Increases in the number of bills, the number states with bills, and perhaps the number of bills introduced in a given state appears more as a response to environmental stimuli that makes bills appear more viable: namely previous state victories and shifts in public opinion.

Developing a successful marketing plan: making a real difference in a care home setting

One of the impacts of COVID-19 has been a negative shift in public opinion towards residential and care home settings. Adrian Ashurst discusses the importance of implementing an excellent marketing plan during these difficult times.

White Allyship Means a Transfer of Power

The conspicuous shift in public opinion on issues of race, branded in 2019 as the “Great Awokening,” has reached an all-time high with protests in over 140 U.S. cities after Floyd’s murder of May 25, 2020. But will the current resurgence in protests lead to enduring change?

Communication technology of crisis management in conditions of mass disruption of power supply in the period of «ice rains»

A technology is presented for crisis management and handing reputation and image consequences for the JSC IDGC Holding power company in connection with the man-caused accident of 2010 – 2011 (the most extended and painful for power supply of the Russian population), which occurred under the impact of a natural factor in the form of "ice rain" on power transmission engineering systems. Based on the results of a comprehensive analysis of the PR situation, the nature of the crisis has been revealed, which, in terms of its geographical scale, the extent of mass outages of consumers from power supply sources, and the scope of repair and restoration work, was unprecedented in the Russian Federation over the previous 30 year period. It is estimated that the restoration of performance of the electricity network infrastructure took three months (January through March of 2011) and involved huge information and communication resources, mobilization of staff and additional pool of specialists with a total number of more than 3 thousand people. The research methodology is consistent with conventional boundaries, with a full set of approaches typical of research of a systemic social phenomenon, such as the company's communication activities and in interfacing with the essential characteristics of business reputation. As a hypothesis, a convincing and proven assumption has been put forward that mass disruptions of power supply under the influence of natural elements can become a decisive factor for a fundamental shift in public opinion in favor of the power grid company, if the crisis PR program is based on creative ideas for the involvement of journalists, experts, environmentalists, deputies, other stakeholders and opinion leaders in the process of emergency response. By way of example of analysis of communication work in conditions of mass power supply disruption in the zone of responsibility of JSC IDGC Holding, a system of recommendations is suggested for the PR service activities during the crisis period.

Responsive Campaigning: Evidence from European Parties

How do parties respond to public opinion shifts on the campaign trail? While a vast literature looks at ideological updating across elections, the dynamics of short-term responsiveness remain large...

II.5. La survie des Juifs en France : une approche multifactorielle

In 1945, 75% of the Jewish population in France was still alive. Rather than look for a single explanation for this extraordinary figure, this article adopts a multi-causal approach, presenting a range of geographic, social, cultural, and political factors within an evolving international context. With respect to geography, many Jews in France were scattered throughout the countryside, especially in the “Free Zone,” rather than interned in camps. Regarding society’s response, non-Jewish citizens provided some aid to the persecuted, which marked a shift in public opinion beginning in the summer of 1942 (despite the anti-Semite ideology promoted by the French government). These measures became even more widespread when they were either not punished at all or punished very lightly.French Jews were able to access assistance more easily because of their networks of friends and family, which they had formed as a result of their secular integration with French society. Jewish and Christian organizations focused more on saving foreign Jews, and especially children. As a result, it is important to take cultural factors into account, whether they be rooted in religion or a sense of republican heritage and patriotism. French society seemed to act as a sort of “watchdog” (however weak) that prevented Vichy from fully implementing its criminal plans. Political and international factors played an outsized role during this period. The Vichy government was relatively autonomous. While it initially collaborated with Berlin, it partially distanced itself from the policy of deportation when the war began to shift.

Inside out: The UK press, Brexit and strategic populist ventriloquism

This article examines how and when populist discourses were mobilised within the 2016 UK European Union (EU) Referendum campaign, by examining the specific temporal conjunctions between the changing strategy of the official ‘Vote Leave’ campaign, British national newspaper reporting of the Referendum and shifts in public opinion. Our analysis shows that Vote Leave only started to utilise anti-elitist and exclusionary populist rhetoric at the mid-point of the campaign, in response to constricting political opportunities, but by so doing transformed the dynamic of the Referendum. We term this an example of ‘strategic populist ventriloquism’, where elite politicians appropriate the language of insurgency for political advantage, and argue that current conceptual frameworks on media and populism need to be broadened to accommodate these occasions.

Woman and the Irish constitution: The movement towards reproductive rights in Ireland

In this paper, the writing and re-writing of the Irish Constitution will be examined in relation to the Lacanian concept of the sexual nonrelation, with particular focus on the way women have been written into the Constitution. A recent change in public opinion regarding the criminality of abortion resulted in a campaign to remove the Eighth Amendment from the Constitution. This was the constitutional provision of the equal right to life of the mother and the unborn. An examination of the consequences of this provision will contextualise the shift in public opinion towards the relaxation of Ireland’s restrictive abortion laws.

Attitudinal and Emotional Consequences of Islamist Terrorism. Evidence from the Berlin Attack

Studies about Islamist‐inspired terror attacks in the Western world have identified a recently declining impact on public opinion. What explains this development? I argue that the wider audience of terrorist attacks has become desensitized. Cognitive desensitization occurs when citizens increasingly expect an attack, reducing the likelihood of attitudinal change. Emotional desensitization occurs when audiences lose sensitivity to attacks, tempering emotional arousal. To assess the implications of desensitization, I analyze a survey conducted around the Berlin Christmas market attack in 2016 and account for baseline information of the surveyed individuals, an approach not used before due to data limitations. I find that attitudes like trust in government, national identification, and views of Islam remain unchanged. Sadness and anger are heightened in the immediate aftermath of the attack. The wider German audience may thus have expected an attack but still be emotionally sensitive to it in the short term. These findings are relevant as political leaders have justified important policy changes in fields like migration and even war making with reference to supposed shifts in public opinion after attacks.

Medicinal and Recreational Marijuana: Review of the Literature and Recommendations for the Plastic Surgeon.

With the shift in public opinion and legalization of cannabis for therapeutic and recreational use, cannabis consumption has become more common. This trend will likely continue as decriminalization and legalization of marijuana and associated cannabinoids expand. Despite this increase in use, our familiarity with this drug and its associated effects remains incomplete. The aim of this review is to describe the physiologic effects of marijuana and its related compounds, review current literature related to therapeutic applications and consequences, discuss potential side effects of marijuana in surgical patients, and provide recommendations for the practicing plastic surgeon. Special attention is given to areas that directly impact plastic surgery patients, including postoperative pain, nausea and vomiting and wound healing. Although the literature demonstrates substantial support for marijuana in areas such as chronic pain and nausea and vomiting associated with chemotherapy, the data supporting its use for common perioperative problems are lacking. Its use for treating perioperative problems, such as pain and nausea, is poorly supported and requires further research.

The Politics of Marijuana: Truth Regimes and Institutional Ignorance

During the 20th century, Harry Anslinger (1892-1975) waged one of the most successful disinformation campaigns in US history. Anslinger served from 1930-1962 as the founding commissioner of the Federal Bureau of Narcotics. When Anslinger launched his anti-cannabis crusade in the 1930s most people viewed cannabis as a harmless weed. Far from viewing cannabis as a danger, many communities celebrated hemp as their economic lifeblood. It was, therefore, a tall order for Harry Anslinger to turn the tide of public opinion against such a well-loved plant, but Anslinger proved more than equal to the task. To bring about the necessary shift in public opinion, Harry Anslinger would have to construct an alternate reality wherein cannabis morphed from a harmless weed into the most dangerous drug known to humanity. Thus, Anslinger concocted his “Reefer Madness” truth regime.

Moving Beyond the Absence of Pain and Distress: Focusing on Positive Animal Welfare.

For many years, researchers, veterinarians, animal ethics committees, and regulators have focused on minimizing pain and distress as a primary goal of refinement when working with animals in science. More recent publications as well as a shift in animal ethics and public opinion have emphasized promotion of positive affective states, culminating in the concept of positive animal welfare. Robust measures are required to know when positive animal welfare states are occurring, and a number of measures are proposed and discussed. Regardless of whether there are newer methods available that focus exclusively on measuring positive affective states, consistent consideration of research animal behavioral programs, refinement, and adopting periodic stand-alone animal welfare assessments for all species involved will help to push the care and practices of research animals towards an increased focus on positive animal welfare.

From associations to sarcasm: Mining the shift of opinions regarding the Supreme Court on twitter

Twitter is a valuable source for learning about public opinion and political communication. Applying data mining to Twitter content (i.e., “Twitter mining”) offers a way to analyze large numbers of tweets to help us understand political associations the public makes. However, the use of incivility and sarcasm in political discourse may pose a challenge for Twitter mining in the context of politics. In this study, we apply Twitter mining to the 2018 confirmation of Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court to look for possible changes in public opinion of the Court in the wake of the confirmation hearing and to determine whether sarcasm in political messages on Twitter can alter the results of computational methods when using large datasets. Examining two waves of tweets, one in the days immediately following the confirmation and one a month later, we find evidence of a shift in public opinion as associations between the Supreme Court and partisanship emerge only in the latter period. Using sentiment analysis, we also demonstrate that sarcasm led to over-categorization of positive tweets, which altered the results by suggesting that the public viewed partisanship on the Supreme Court favorably.

Not so responsive after all: European parties do not respond to public opinion shifts across multiple issue dimensions

Many studies have found that European parties change their policy positions in response to changes in public opinion. This is both theoretically and normatively appealing, suggesting that European party politics operates in a way that is consistent with spatial models. Nonetheless, virtually all previous studies are based on a single, uni-dimensional measure of public opinion: left–right self-placement from the Eurobarometer surveys. This measure has a number of flaws, including the fact that political conflict in Europe now occurs across multiple issue dimensions beyond the classic divide on state involvement in the economy. We used new measures of Europeans’ ideological positions across four different issue dimensions and 26 countries from 1981–2016, together with data on parties’ policy positions from their manifestos, to re-evaluate findings on responsiveness. Across many different model specifications, samples and outcome measures, we found virtually no evidence that European political parties respond to public opinion on any issue dimension. Our findings suggest that scholars may require better measures of party positions, more nuanced theories of responsiveness (for example to sub-groups, or across longer time horizons), or may need to refocus their attention towards responsiveness via policy outcomes rather than parties’ policy commitments.

Individual and Contextual Influences on Public Support for Military Spending in NATO

ABSTRACT What factors at the individual and country levels influence public support for increased levels of military spending and related foreign policy preferences in NATO countries? Specifically, what individual-level characteristics (e.g., view of NATO) are associated with support for increasing military spending within the NATO alliance, and what country characteristics are associated with shifts in public opinion due to changes in the contextual environment within each country (e.g., military spending/economic growth)? Answers to these questions fill an important gap in the literature by investigating the domestic constraints that influence a country’s response to questions of ‘burden-sharing’ and free riding within NATO. This study examines how citizens’ preferences respond to their domestic political environment, and whether this behavior aligns with the ‘guns versus butter’ trade-off. Findings from a multilevel model combining country-level data with survey data from 13 NATO member countries between 2004–2012 suggest that individuals who view NATO as essential are consistently more likely to support increases in military spending, but changes in the contextual environment, such as high levels of military spending or high levels of economic growth, alter the preferences of individuals in a manner that follows what is known about the trade-offs citizens make between ‘guns versus butter.’

Plan Implementation Challenges in a Shrinking City

Problem, research strategy, and findings: In 2005, Youngstown (OH) released a widely publicized comprehensive plan, the Youngstown 2010 Citywide Plan. This plan emphasized “smart shrinkage,” reflecting the city’s downsized built environment and reduced population. In 2013 the city released the Youngstown Redevelopment Code, which was zoning intended to implement the comprehensive plan. In this study we measure whether the comprehensive plan conformed with the Youngstown Redevelopment Code by comparing land use designations on a parcel-by-parcel basis between the comprehensive plan, the pre-2013 code, and the Youngstown Redevelopment Code. To better understand the causality of conformance, we conducted semistructured interviews with framers of the comprehensive plan and the Youngstown Redevelopment Code documents. We find weak conformance between the comprehensive plan and the Youngstown Redevelopment Code; most of the comprehensive plan’s downsizing recommendations were unimplemented. There was close conformance between the pre-2013 code and the Youngstown Redevelopment Code, and most of the differences between them reflected the comprehensive plan’s recommendations. Informants attribute the weak conformance between the comprehensive plan and the Youngstown Redevelopment Code to many of the former’s ideas not being legally defensible. Changing political regimes, shifts in public opinion, and the driving need for economic investment were also cited as contributors to this weak conformance.Takeaway for practice: Our findings indicate that implementing smart shrinkage land use recommendations in shrinking cities is likely to be challenging because legislators may resist codification of reduced populations and lessened economic capacity. Translating comprehensive plan ideas into zoning regulations may be subject to political, social, economic, and legal forces that limit plan enactment. These findings may apply to all cases where comprehensive plans require translation into zoning regulations for implementation. Local government officials and planners should consider these constraints on plan implementation through zoning when they are framing comprehensive plan strategies.