Public Disaster Research Articles

A Well-Designed Implement for Promoting Population Health and Property via Insurance.

The frequency and intensity of catastrophes (including natural disasters and pandemics) rise and damage the population's health, life and property more seriously. In order to protect population health and wealth via full insurance indemnity, many countries set up a public catastrophe insurance scheme (PCIS) to maintain the function of catastrophe insurance markets. Little literature discusses the smart payment way of contributions charged by PCIS. This article design a model to describe the upward trend and cyclic frequency and intensity of catastrophic events. Such characteristics also promote the business cycle of the insurance industry. We analyze the changes in catastrophic insurer's capital structures under three cases of that the volume-based charges to the PCIS may come from equity holders or policyholders or both. PCIS may entail a shift of equity capital toward minimum solvency requirements, and then adverse incentives regarding insurer's security level arise. Various numerical experiments illustrate the changes in equity position, default probabilities, or expected policyholder deficits. The results show that the payment way of contributions should be designed carefully, not only with regard to PCIS's finance balance but also the resultant incentives and effects.

Radio Frequency over Fibre Optics Repeater for Mission-Critical Communications: Design, Execution and Test.

This paper presents a technical solution that addresses mission-critical communications by extending the radio frequency coverage area using a flexible and scalable architecture. One of the main objectives is to improve both the reaction time and the coordination between mission-critical practitioners, also called public protection and disaster relief users, that operate in emergency scenarios. Mission-critical services such as voice and data should benefit from reliable communication systems that offer high availability, prioritization and flexible architecture. In this paper, we considered Terrestrial Trunked Radio (TETRA), the mobile radio standard used for mission-critical communications, as it has been designed in this respect and is widely used by first responder organizations. Even if RF coverage is designed before network deployment and continuously updated during the lifetime of the technology, some white areas may exist and should be covered by supplementary base stations or repeaters. The model presented in this paper is an optical repeater for TETRA standard that can offer up to 52.6 dB downlink, 65.6 dB uplink gain and up to 3.71 km coverage distance in a radiating cable installation scenario. The design in not limited, as it can be extended to several different mobile radio standards using the same principle. Flexibility and scalability attributes are taken into consideration, as they can build a cost-effective deployment considering both capital and operational expenditures.

The flip side of the coin: Perils of public–private disaster cooperation

Private companies often actively engage in disaster response. In recent years, disaster resilience, including public–private partnerships, has been identified as an ideational cornerstone of crisis management policy. This study offers insights into how these international policy trends in disaster management manifest in practice. Based on an empirical study of a large wildfire in the Swedish province of Västmanland in 2014, we investigate how market opportunities and principles influenced the rescue efforts and cooperation between public disaster responders and private actors. The findings illustrate the flip side of public–private disaster cooperation, in relation to three perils: (1) uncertain costs of private disaster support owing to the ambivalent roles of private actors as either disaster entrepreneurs or volunteers; (2) a dangerous work environment for private actors involved in public disaster response and (3) e‐volunteers' provision of business donation details around the public response by naming and shaming ‘ungenerous’ private companies.

A Wide Area Multiview Static Crowd Estimation System Using UAV and 3D Training Simulator

Crowd size estimation is a challenging problem, especially when the crowd is spread over a significant geographical area. It has applications in monitoring of rallies and demonstrations and in calculating the assistance requirements in humanitarian disasters. Therefore, accomplishing a crowd surveillance system for large crowds constitutes a significant issue. UAV-based techniques are an appealing choice for crowd estimation over a large region, but they present a variety of interesting challenges, such as integrating per-frame estimates through a video without counting individuals twice. Large quantities of annotated training data are required to design, train, and test such a system. In this paper, we have first reviewed several crowd estimation techniques, existing crowd simulators and data sets available for crowd analysis. Later, we have described a simulation system to provide such data, avoiding the need for tedious and error-prone manual annotation. Then, we have evaluated synthetic video from the simulator using various existing single-frame crowd estimation techniques. Our findings show that the simulated data can be used to train and test crowd estimation, thereby providing a suitable platform to develop such techniques. We also propose an automated UAV-based 3D crowd estimation system that can be used for approximately static or slow-moving crowds, such as public events, political rallies, and natural or man-made disasters. We evaluate the results by applying our new framework to a variety of scenarios with varying crowd sizes. The proposed system gives promising results using widely accepted metrics including MAE, RMSE, Precision, Recall, and F1 score to validate the results.

Engaged, overextended, or burned out: What is the state of the disaster response workforce?

The prolonged coronavirus-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and co-occurring disasters during 2020 took a toll on everyone, taxing public health and disaster management personnel particularly. This initial study evaluated levels of exhaustion, cynicism, and professional efficacy among a broad array of the disaster workforce responding to these events through an online survey. Responses were compared to normative standards from an international dataset using a one-sample t-test and described using k-means cluster analysis. Results from 111 emergency management and disaster services, public health, healthcare, first responders, and other professionals and volunteers indicated high levels of emotional exhaustion and cynicism, along with high levels of personal efficacy compared to normative samples. Perceptions of the heightened risk of contracting COVID-19 were significantly associated with increased emotional exhaustion and cynicism. Cluster analysis results indicated three different patterns of burnout: half of the respondents were overextended (high levels of emotional exhaustion, cynicism, and efficacy) or burned out (high emotional exhaustion and cynicism, low efficacy), while 50 percent were engaged (low emotional exhaustion, low cynicism, and high personal efficacy). This suggests that despite the COVID-19 pandemic, a substantial proportion of the disaster response workforce is still thriving. However, a large proportion is burned out or at high risk (overextended). Limitations of this study include a lack of diversity in the sample, which, although similar to the demographic characteristics of the emergency manager population, may limit the generalizability of the study results. System-level planners can use this information to develop comprehensive workforce approaches, policies, and procedures to prevent burnout for these essential personnel working behind the scenes.

A Replication of “Weathering Corruption” ( Journal of Law and Economics, 2008)

Previous research using data on convictions for corruption-related crimes from the Public Integrity Section (PIN) of the Department of Justice points to a positive correlation between the amount of corruption in a state and the amount of federal funds provided to the state for natural disaster relief. We take a closer look at the relationship between public corruption and disaster assistance and find little support for the hypothesis that the provision of federal disaster aid increases public corruption. Our analysis suggests instead that prior evidence of such a link arises from an unexplained correlation during the 1990s between disaster aid and convictions of postal employees for crimes such as stealing mail. Convictions for postal service crimes appear to account for a large fraction of the total federal convictions reported by PIN, which could have far-reaching implications, given that the PIN data have been used so extensively in the corruption literature.

Factors influencing public procurement during disasters: the cases of Chile and New Zealand

Purpose This paper aims to explore public procurement frameworks during disasters in Chile and New Zealand, identifying the factors that affect government procurement performance in disaster response. Design/methodology/approach This research adopted a case study methodology following a qualitative approach. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with government officers from Chile and New Zealand who had practice-relevant knowledge of public procurement and disaster management. Data was complemented by document reviews, including government reports and the records of disaster management organizations. Findings This paper finds public procurement to be negatively affected by several factors during disasters, including celerity and flexibility of response; market and supplier restrictions; pressures over procurement teams; centralism of procurement structures; lack of technical knowledge; competition and crossover of agreements; corruption; and price variations. Practical implications This paper includes policy recommendations on how to increase the effectiveness of disaster management and public procurement systems in countries at high risk of earthquakes and other disasters. Social implications This paper can help public procurement officers to provide a better response during disasters, supplying the goods and services required to the affected population in a timely and effective manner. Originality/value This paper addresses a gap in research by identifying factors which negatively impact government procurement and response during a disaster.

Predicting social and health vulnerability to floods in Bangladesh

Abstract. Floods are the most common and damaging natural disaster in Bangladesh, and the effects of floods on public health have increased significantly in recent decades, particularly among lower socioeconomic populations. Assessments of social vulnerability on flood-induced health outcomes typically focus on local to regional scales; a notable gap remains in comprehensive, large-scale assessments that may foster disaster management practices. In this study, socioeconomic, health, and coping capacity vulnerability and composite social-health vulnerability are assessed using both equal-weight and principal-component approaches using 26 indicators across Bangladesh. Results indicate that vulnerable zones exist in the northwest riverine areas, northeast floodplains, and southwest region, potentially affecting 42 million people (26 % of the total population). Subsequently, the vulnerability measures are linked to flood forecast and satellite inundation information to evaluate their potential for predicting actual flood impact indices (distress, damage, disruption, and health) based on the immense August 2017 flood event. Overall, the forecast-based equally weighted vulnerability measures perform best. Specifically, socioeconomic and coping capacity vulnerability measures strongly align with the distress, disruption, and health impact records observed. Additionally, the forecast-based composite social-health vulnerability index also correlates well with the impact indices, illustrating its utility in identifying predominantly vulnerable regions. These findings suggest the benefits and practicality of this approach to assess both thematic and comprehensive spatial vulnerabilities, with the potential to support targeted and coordinated public disaster management and health practices.

Private Support for Public Disaster Aid

Despite its growing economic and political importance, this is the first study in economics to investigate public opinion in the United States regarding both the allocation of government disaster aid to stricken households and communities as well as total expenditures by government on such aid. This is also the first study to bridge a gap in previous research on disasters by comparing and contrasting our results to related behavioral studies from political science, social psychology and sociology. Combining individual data from the 2006 General Social Survey with county-level information about the local environment of survey respondents, we estimate probit models to ascertain the magnitude and significance of the socioeconomic, demographic, political and experiential determinants of public opinion on these issues. Among other results, we find that Black survey respondents strongly support increasing total aid expenditures and aid to affected households and communities while income, age and a conservative political ideology largely exert a negative influence on these same variables. Surprisingly, the effects of prior experience with disasters and educational level have only a weak effect on the allocation of aid and none on the level of expenditures on aid. These and other results are consistent with only a portion of previous findings from other disciplines. Several implications of our results for current federal disaster policy are discussed and we also suggest directions for further research into this important topic.

The Perception of Flood Risks: A Case Study of Babessi in Rural Cameroon

Although risk perception of natural hazards has been identified as an important determinant for sound policy design, there is limited empirical research on it in developing countries. This article narrows the empirical literature gap. It draws from Babessi, a rural town in the Northwest Region of Cameroon. Babessi was hit by a severe flash flood in 2012. The cross-disciplinary lens applied here deciphers the complexity arising from flood hazards, often embedded in contexts characterized by poverty, a state that is constrained in disaster relief, and market-based solutions being absent. Primary data were collected via snowball sampling. Multinomial logistic regression analysis suggests that individuals with leadership functions, for example, heads of households, perceive flood risk higher, probably due to their role as household providers. We found that risk perception is linked to location, which in turn is associated with religious affiliation. Christians perceive floods riskier than Muslims because the former traditionally reside at the foot of hills and the latter uphill; rendering Muslims less exposed and eventually less affected by floods. Finally, public disaster relief appears to have built up trust and subsequently reduced risk perception, even if some victims remained skeptical of state disaster relief. This indicates strong potential benefits of public transfers for flood risk management in developing countries.

Eyes of a Hurricane: The Effect of Hurricane Harvey on Ophthalmology Consultations at Houston’s County Hospital

This study aimed to characterize ophthalmology consultations ordered after Hurricane Harvey compared to consultations ordered during the same time period of the prior year. A retrospective chart review was performed at an urban, level 1 trauma center of a county hospital. All patients were included who received an electronic health record, documented ophthalmology consultation order between September 2017 and October 2017 (the time period immediately following Hurricane Harvey) or September 2016 and October 2016. Patient demographic risk factors were collected. Patient ICD10 clinical diagnoses were categorized as extraocular, intraocular, infectious, physiological, or other, and then subcategorized as trauma or non-trauma-related. A geographical heat map was generated to compare the changes in diagnosis volume by zip code to the magnitude of rainfall in the county. Following Hurricane Harvey, ophthalmology consultation volume decreased, number of infectious ophthalmology diagnoses increased (P < 0.001), percentage of patients on immunosuppression increased (P < 0.001), and the number of private insurance payers increased while the number of county-funded insurance payers decreased (P = 0.003). The risk of infectious eye diagnosis was double the risk of traumatic eye diagnosis from Hurricane Harvey flooding. During public disaster planning, different ophthalmological medical resources and responses should be considered for flooding versus high-wind events.

Management of acute psychiatric emergencies

Background: The prevalence of psychiatric emergencies increases significantly during public disasters, highlighting the need for effective management strategies. Disasters, including pandemics and epidemics, exacerbate mental health conditions and strain healthcare systems. Despite established models for psychiatric emergency management, there remains a crucial need to ensure accessibility and effectiveness in such high-stress scenarios. Aims: This article aims to review and propose strategies for managing psychiatric emergencies in the context of public disasters. It focuses on evaluating the impact of crises on mental health and the capacity of healthcare systems to address these needs effectively. Methods: A comprehensive review of literature was conducted, examining psychiatric emergencies in disaster settings, including pandemics and natural disasters. The review involved analyzing current management models, assessing their effectiveness, and identifying gaps in healthcare provision. Results: The study finds that the prevalence of mental disorders during disasters is significantly higher compared to normal conditions. Key challenges include inadequate infrastructure, limited staff, and the need for specialized psychiatric interventions. Effective strategies include enhanced triage systems, increased availability of outpatient and inpatient care, and the use of telepsychiatry where applicable.

‘I can see clearly now’: clarifying the role of psychiatry in global disaster

First, to review the principles and practice of disaster psychiatry, in light of recent global events. Second, to identify opportunities for research. A literature review of the MEDLINE database, UpToDate and the Cochrane Library was conducted. Reference lists were also reviewed. Psychiatrists are well-positioned to contribute to positive outcomes at all stages of the disaster response. These contributions derive from their roles as doctors, mental illness specialists and clinical leaders. A novel framework for the psychiatrist's contributions was proposed. Specific knowledge of disaster psychiatry may be worthwhile, and establishment of a public disaster psychiatry centre is reasonable. Research should further examine the role of tele-psychiatry and pursue a best practice for community and front-line employee psychological preparedness.

Simulation analysis on the public opinion factors and public panic degree under the background of spreading sudden disaster information by new media

Based on the analysis of the transmission and evolution mechanism of the sudden disaster risk, this paper fully considers the influence of public opinion after a disaster and uses the improved individual interaction model to transform public opinion information into public risk panic. In addition, according to the characteristics of panic, this paper puts forward the corresponding emergency rescue measures to reduce the risk of social unrest. The Matlab-ABM simulation results show that at the early stage of a disaster, the degree of public panic risk evolves with the number of interactions between individuals and the deepening of risk awareness. Further, different disaster levels also lead to varying influences on the panic risk. Positive information and negative information will produce more significant distinctions in the degree of public risk panic. The simulation results can provide decision support for relevant government departments to restrain the fermentation of sudden public disasters.

Situações de emergência, controle social, tribunais de contas e jurimetria: Um estudo das decisões sobre denúncias e representações apresentadas ao Tribunal de Contas da União

O objetivo geral deste estudo é descrever e explicar as decisões sobre as denúncias e representações apresentadas ao Tribunal de Contas da União (TCU), em Situações de Emergência ou Estados de Calamidade Pública. O trabalho tem como objetivos específicos responder às seguintes questões: Como se distribuem as decisões do TCU nestes julgados em função das variáveis do processo? Como estas decisões podem ser explicadas? Como estas decisões podem ser previstas? A pesquisa é quantitativa e utiliza técnica documental. Os documentos eletrônicos foram coletados no sítio do TCU. A análise dos dados foi feita através da Jurimetria, Estatística aplicada ao Direito. O trabalho se justifica na medida em que é necessário o conhecimento da aplicação concreta das leis, para aperfeiçoamento do processo legislativo e melhoria do desempenho dos Tribunais de Contas. Os objetivos do trabalho são atendidos, uma vez que a descrição dos processos é apresentada, e um modelo explicativo e um modelo preditivo são construídos.

An augmented representation method of debris flow scenes to improve public perception

ABSTRACT Virtual scenes can present rich and clear disaster information, which can significantly improve the level of public disaster perception. However, existing methods for constructing scenes of debris flow disasters have some deficiencies. First, the construction process does not consider public knowledge, which makes it difficult for the constructed scenes to meet the requirements of the public. Second, the scene representation emphasizes visual effects but lacks augmented visualization, leading to scarcity of semantic information and inefficient public perception. In this paper, the optimal selection of scene objects, semantic augmentation through the combination of various visual variables and dynamic augmented representation are discussed in detail. Finally, a debris flow that occurred Shuimo town is selected for experiment analysis. The experimental results show that most people are unaware of the risks posed by debris flow disasters. The public is more concerned about the consequences of a disaster than its spatiotemporal process, especially when the consequences are related to their own interests. Furthermore, an augmented representation can increase the amount of semantic information of scene objects, which is essential for enhancing public understanding of the causes, processes and effects of debris flows and thereby changing people’s attitudes and enhancing their risk perception.

STUDY OF THE MAXIMUM DAILY RAINS IN THE CITY OF BARREIRAS/BA THROUGH TIME SERIES METHODOLOGY

Natural disasters are increasingly present in everyday society. In Brazil the most common natural disasters are landslides and floods which are phenomena directly related to hydrological variables such as rainfall. The study and statistical monitoring of the meteorological regime of a given region, in particular, daily maximum rainfall data can provide important information to guide public disaster prevention policies, as well as reduce the human vulnerability of the local population. The main objective of this paper was to analyze a historical series related to the maximum daily rainfall of the city of Barreiras/BA from january 1970 to may 2019 through time series analysis. Results of applied tests indicated the presence of seasonality and also that there is no trend in the series. Given this, the SARIMA model class was considered the most suitable for modeling and the adjusted models presented good predictions allowing the identification of patterns in the series.

Consuming Katrina: Public Disaster and Personal Narrative

Consuming Katrina: Public Disaster and Personal Narrative

재난안전 분야 공무원의 직무만족에 대한 영향요인: 직무위험과 직무압박, 직무스트레스, 그리고 내재적 동기의 영향을 중심으로

본 연구는 재난안전 분야의 공무원이 불확실한 직무의 위험과 압박 속에서 업무를 수행하고 있기 때문에 이러한 특성을 고려하여 직무만족에 미치는 영향요인을 고려하였다. 이를 위해 재난안전분야 공무원의 업무특성인 직무위험과 직무압박에 초점을 두고 직무스트레스를 함께 고려하여 직무만족에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 추가적으로 내재적 동기의 조절효과를 고려하여 정책적 방향성을 제시하였다. 분석결과 직무위험과 직무압박은 직무스트레스와 직무만족에 부정적 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 하지만, 내재적 동기는 직무스트레스가 직무만족에 미치는 부정적 영향을 상쇄하는 것으로 분석되었다. 재난안전 분야 공무원의 직무환경 자체를 변화시키는 것은 어려움이 있지만 직무위험과 직무압박을 줄일 수 있도록 하는 조직차원의 관리 노력이 반드시 필요하다. 또한, 변화에 소요되는 시간과 비용의 문제를 고려할 때 내재적 동기부여 요인을 통한 방식을 현실적 대안으로서 고려해볼 수 있을 것이다. 재난안전 분야 공무원의 근무환경과 역량은 치안경쟁력을 높이는 핵심요소라는 점에서도 본 연구의 함의가 있다.

Incorporating Public Participation into Landslide Risk Information and Response: Disaster Response Switch in the Taisho District of Shimanto-cho, Kochi, Japan

A disaster response switch is a tool for incorporating public participation into disaster risk information and response and is considered by communities themselves in determining the timing of disaster response actions through the combination of local information in the community and public information from local government and professional organizations. In this study, a trial on disaster response switch for landslide risk was conducted in the Taisho District, Shimanto-cho, Kochi, Japan, and a method for implementing the switch as well as the effects of this public participation was verified. The results showed that the communities highly considered switches based mostly on local information. In addition, they improved their understanding of the relationships between subjective local information and objective public disaster risk information through bosai (disaster prevention) recording, where communities take pictures of places around the disaster response switches as community records. This trial showed the importance of taking into consideration communities’ participation when they evacuate. The public participation of the disaster response switch moved the focus of risk information from the contents or accuracy of the information to the social system of evacuation action in the community, based on the acceptance of uncertainty in the information.