Abstract
Abstract. Floods are the most common and damaging natural disaster in Bangladesh, and the effects of floods on public health have increased significantly in recent decades, particularly among lower socioeconomic populations. Assessments of social vulnerability on flood-induced health outcomes typically focus on local to regional scales; a notable gap remains in comprehensive, large-scale assessments that may foster disaster management practices. In this study, socioeconomic, health, and coping capacity vulnerability and composite social-health vulnerability are assessed using both equal-weight and principal-component approaches using 26 indicators across Bangladesh. Results indicate that vulnerable zones exist in the northwest riverine areas, northeast floodplains, and southwest region, potentially affecting 42 million people (26 % of the total population). Subsequently, the vulnerability measures are linked to flood forecast and satellite inundation information to evaluate their potential for predicting actual flood impact indices (distress, damage, disruption, and health) based on the immense August 2017 flood event. Overall, the forecast-based equally weighted vulnerability measures perform best. Specifically, socioeconomic and coping capacity vulnerability measures strongly align with the distress, disruption, and health impact records observed. Additionally, the forecast-based composite social-health vulnerability index also correlates well with the impact indices, illustrating its utility in identifying predominantly vulnerable regions. These findings suggest the benefits and practicality of this approach to assess both thematic and comprehensive spatial vulnerabilities, with the potential to support targeted and coordinated public disaster management and health practices.
Highlights
Flood-induced mortality, one of the most telling statistics of flood impacts, has been studied extensively in conjunction with environmental and socioeconomic factors
We examine the predictability of flood impacts on livelihood, community, and health sectors by linking vulnerabilities to flood forecasts and satellite inundation for the catastrophic 2017 Bangladesh flood event
Upazila level indicators are upscaled to compare with district-level indicators using population or household weights
Summary
Flood-induced mortality, one of the most telling statistics of flood impacts, has been studied extensively in conjunction with environmental and socioeconomic factors. Kundzewicz and Takeuchi (1999) demonstrate the relationship between economic losses per death and overall national wealth for the most severe flood events of the 1990s. Based on information from flood victims in Poland in 1997, Kundzewicz and Kundzewicz (2005) emphasize that flood-related mortality is indirectly related to wealth level and instead is more directly related to social and health factors and perceptions of flood risk. According to Jonkman and Vrijling (2008), the primary causes of flood-related mortality are a lack of warning, inability to reach shelter, building collapse, flood level and velocity, and impacts on children and the elderly. Public health outcomes stemming from flood events are typically acute and severe, in developing or tropical regions, potentially including death and injury, contaminated drinking water, endemic and infectious diseases, and community disruption and displacement. The impacts of floods on public health have been investigated (Ahern et al, 2005; Alderman et al, 2012; Batterman et al, 2009; Du et al, 2010; Tapsell et al, 2002), integrated management of flood and health risks is technically and institutionally limited
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