Provincial Level Research Articles

The effects of sub-central development on the economic growth of provincial capitals: A study based on the DID and PSO-RF models

As a core component in deepening reforms and expanding the strategy of dual circulation development, the importance of developing sub-centers for the economic growth of provincial capitals is self-evident. This paper, based on panel data from 300 prefecture-level cities in China from 1998 to 2020, constructs a progressive double-difference (DID) model to assess the impact of sub-central development on the economic growth of provincial capitals. The research reveals that the development of sub-centers at the provincial level significantly promotes the economic growth of provincial capitals. Moreover, the policies of sub-center cities have a more pronounced stimulating effect on the economic growth of provincial capitals in the central and western regions. Additionally, the more sub-center cities there are, the more apparent the effect on promoting the economic growth of provincial capitals. Subsequently, this paper employs the Particle Swarm Optimization - Random Forest (PSO-RF) model through machine learning to validate the above conclusions, confirming the validity of the findings.

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of CO2 Emissions in China Based on Multivariate Spatial Statistics

With China’s rapid industrialization and urbanization in the process of socio-economic development, the extensive use of energy has resulted in a large amount of CO2 emissions, which puts great pressure on China’s carbon emission reduction task. Through multivariate socio-economic data, this paper proposes an extraction and screening method of multivariate variables based on land-use types, and the downscaled spatial decomposition of carbon emissions at different scales was carried out by using the spatial lag model (SLM). This paper makes up for the shortcomings of previous studies, such as an insufficient modeling scale, simple modeling variables, limited spatio-temporal span of spatial decomposition, and no consideration of geographical correlation. Based on the results of the spatial decomposition of carbon emissions, this paper explores the spatial and temporal dynamics of carbon emissions at different scales. The results showed that SLM is capable of downscaling the spatialization of carbon emissions with high precision, and the continuity of the decomposition results at the provincial scale is stronger, while the differences of the decomposition results at the municipal scale are more obvious within the municipal units. In terms of the spatial and temporal dynamics of CO2 emissions, carbon emissions at both scales showed a significant positive correlation. The dominant spatial correlation types are “Low–Low” at the provincial level, and “Low–Low” and “High–High” at the municipal level. The smaller spatial scope is more helpful to show the geographic dependence and geographic differences of China’s carbon emissions. The findings of this paper will help deepen the understanding of the spatial and temporal changes of carbon emissions in China. They will provide a scientific basis for the formulation of feasible carbon emission reduction policies.

Unveiling Indonesia’s poverty dynamics: Analyzing the structural impact of the tourism sector on poverty depth and severity

This study addresses the impact of the tourism sector on poverty, poverty depth, and poverty severity in Indonesia, focusing on the micro-level dynamics in the province. Despite numerous tourism destinations, their strategic contribution to regional progress remains underexplored. The motivation stems from the need to comprehend the nuanced relationship between tourism and poverty at both the national and local levels, with specific attention to the untapped potential at the province level in Indonesia. We hypothesize that a higher tourism sector GRDP will be inversely correlated with poverty levels, and the inclusion of a Covid-19 variable will reveal a structural impact on poverty dynamics. Employing a Panel Regression Model, secondary data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) spanning 2011–2020 is utilized. A panel data regression equation model, including CEM, FEM, and REM, is employed to analyze the intricate relationship between tourism and poverty. The findings demonstrate a negative correlation between higher tourism sector GRDP and the number of poor people. The Covid-19 variable, considered a structural break, reveals a significant association between increased cases and elevated poverty and severity across Indonesian provinces. This study contributes a micro-level analysis of tourism’s role, emphasizing its impact at the provincial level. The findings underscore the need for strategic initiatives to harness the untapped potential of tourism in alleviating poverty and promoting regional progress.

Impact Of Natural Disaster On Local Tax Revenue

Poverty is one of the problems that always become main concern in Indonesia, the problem of poverty is worsen when economic shocks occur, one of which caused by natural disasters, these two things adding the burden on the government, especially at the regional level both in the context of fiscal management and countermeasures. By using panel data from 34 provinces in Indonesia, this study aims to find the effect of natural disasters and poverty rate on regional tax revenues at provincial level with foreign direct investment (FDI) as a moderating variable. The results of the regression shows that natural disasters and the poverty rate have positive effects on local tax revenues, but these two variables become negatively affected when moderated by FDI so that moderation weakens the effect of the two independent variables, the FDI variable itself when tested as an independent variable has positive effects on local tax revenues. This research is expected to assist local governments in formulating fiscal policy in the event of a post-disaster economic shock and its countermeasures as well as poverty alleviation efforts when the economy is running normally.

Implementation Of Wage Unit Results In Meeting The Decent Living Needs (KHL) Of Batik Workers

Wage based on unit of output is a wage paid based on the production or quantity of goods produced by the worker, in this research, the amount of batik produced by the batik maker. This study aims to determine the implementation of piece-rate wages for batik workers, Pekalongan (Batang) area in Central Java and Cirebon, West Java to see the welfare of batik workers. This research uses qualitative methods with data collection instruments in the form of interviews and field observations. The magnitude of the poverty line and the average monthly per capita expenditure of the community at the provincial and city levels are indicators in determining the welfare level of workers. The results show that the piece-rate wages received by batik workers are higher than the city and provincial poverty lines, but still low when compared to the average monthly per capita expenditure at the provincial and city levels. Nevertheless, employers can determine the amount of wages below the government's decision if employers and workers have agreed. In conclusion, the wages received by the batik workers have not been able to fulfill the KHL of the batik workers optimally. However, batik makers are considered prosperous because they have fulfilled Article 36 Paragraph (2) of Government Regulation No. 36 of 2021 where wages in Small and Medium Enterprises, especially batik, have fulfilled at least 50% of the average consumption of the provincial community and at least 25% above the poverty line at the provincial level.

Reassessment of practice of Chinese surgeons since introduction of the watch and wait strategy after neoadjuvant therapy for rectal cancer

Objective: To investigate perspectives and changes in treatment selection by Chinese surgeons since introduction of the watch-and-wait approach after neoadjuvant therapy for rectal cancer. Methods: A cross-sectional survey was conducted using a questionnaire distributed through the "Wenjuanxing" online survey platform. The survey focused on the recognition and practices of Chinese surgeons regarding the strategy of watch-and-wait after neoadjuvant therapy for rectal cancer and was disseminated within the China Watch-and-Wait Database (CWWD) WeChat group. This group targets surgeons of deputy chief physician level and above in surgical, radiotherapy, or internal medicine departments of nationally accredited tumor-specialist or comprehensive hospitals (at provincial or municipal levels) who are involved in colorectal cancer diagnosis and treatment. From 13 to 16 December 2023, 321 questionnaires were sent with questionnaire links in the CWWD WeChat group. The questionnaires comprised 32 questions encompassing: (1) basic physician characteristics (including surgical volume); (2) assessment methods and criteria for clinical complete response (cCR); (3) patients eligible for watch-and-wait; (4) neoadjuvant therapies and other measures for achieving cCR; (5) willingness to implement watch-and-wait and factors influencing that willingness; (6) risks and monitoring of watch-and-wait; (7) subsequent treatment and follow-up post watch-and-wait; (8) suggestions for development of the CWWD. Descriptive statistics were employed for data analysis, with intergroup comparisons conducted using the χ2 or Fisher's exact probability tests. Results: The response rate was 31.5%, comprising 101 responses from the 321 individuals in the WeChat group. Respondents comprised 101 physicians from 70 centers across 23 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions nationwide, 85.1% (86/101) of whom represented provincial tertiary hospitals. Among the respondents, 87.1% (88/101) had implemented the watch-and-wait strategy. The approval rate (65.6%, 21/32) and proportion of patients often informed (68.8%, 22/32) were both significantly higher for doctors in oncology hospitals than for those in general hospitals (27.7%, 18/65; 32.4%, 22/68) (χ2=12.83, P<0.001; χ2=11.70, P=0.001, respectively). The most used methods for diagnosing cCR were digital rectal examination (90.1%, 91/101), colonoscopy (91.1%, 92/101), and rectal T2-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (86.1%, 87/101). Criteria used to identify cCR comprised absence of a palpable mass on digital rectal examination (87.1%, 88/101), flat white scars or new capillaries on colonoscopy (77.2%, 78/101), absence of evident tumor signals on rectal T2-weighted sequences or T2WI low signals or signals equivalent to the intestinal wall (83.2%, 84/101), and absence of tumor hyperintensity on diffusion-weighted imaging with no corresponding hypointensity on apparent diffusion coefficient maps (66.3%, 67/101). As for selection of neoadjuvant regimen and assessment of cCR, 57.4% (58/101) of physicians preferred a long course of radiotherapy with or without induction and/or consolidation capecitabine + oxaliplatin, whereas 25.7% (26/101) preferred immunotherapy in combination with chemotherapy and concurrent radiotherapy. Most (96.0%, 97/101) physicians believed that the primary lesion should be assessed ≤12 weeks after completion of radiotherapy. Patients were frequently informed about the possibility of achieving cCR after neoadjuvant therapy and the strategy of watch-and-wait by 43.6% (44/101) of the responding physicians and 38.6% (39/101) preferred watch-and-wait for patients who achieved cCR or near cCR after neoadjuvant therapy for rectal cancer. Capability for multiple follow-up evaluations (70.3%, 71/101) was a crucial factor influencing physicians' choice of watch-and-wait after cCR. The proportion who patients who did not achieve cCR and underwent surgical treatment was lower in provincial tertiary hospitals (74.2%, 23/31) than in provincial general hospitals (94.5%, 52/55) and municipal hospitals (12/15); these differences are statistically significant (χ2=7.43, P=0.020). The difference between local recurrence and local regrowth was understood by 88.1% (89/101) of respondents and 87.2% (88/101) agreed with monitoring every 3 months for 5 years. An increase in local excision or puncture rates to reduce organ resections in patients with pCR was proposed by 64.4% (65/101) of respondents. Conclusion: Compared with the results of a previous survey, Chinese surgeons' awareness of the watch-and-wait concept has improved significantly. Oncologists in oncology hospitals are more aware of the concept of watch-and-wait.

Virtual Water Embodied in Interregional Energy Trade in China: A City-Level Analysis.

Large volumes of water are used in energy production for both primary (e.g., fuel extraction) and secondary energy (e.g., electricity). In countries such as China, with a large internal trade in fuels and long-distance transmission grids, this can result in considerable water inequalities. Previous research focused on the water impacts of energy production at the national and provincial levels, which is too coarse to identify the spatial differences and make specific case studies. Here, we take the next step toward a spatially explicit economically integrated water-use for energy assessment by combining a bottom-up assessment approach with a city-level multiregional input-output model. Specifically, we examine the water consumption of energy production in China, distinguishing between water for primary and secondary energy at the level of coal mines, oil and gas fields, and power plants for the first time. Of the total energy-related freshwater consumption of 4.9 Gm3 in 2017, primary energy accounted for 19% (940 Mm3) and secondary energy accounted for 81% (3955 Mm3). Coal was the largest water consumer for both primary and secondary energy (540 and 3880 Mm3, respectively), with both oil (361, and 0.5 Mm3, respectively) and gas (7 and 69 Mm3, respectively) also consuming large amounts. Intercity virtual water, that is, water embodied in energy trade across cities, reached 54% (2.6 Gm3) of energy-related freshwater consumption. Across China, 32% of cities see a bilateral trade in secondary- and primary-energy-related virtual water (e.g., Daqing city exports virtual water embodied in primary fuel to other cities that is then used to produce electricity in those cities, part of which is used back in Daqing via transmission). For these 32% of cities, 73% export more virtual water than import and 27% import more virtual water than export. This study reveals significant differences in city-level virtual water patterns (e.g., scale and direction) between primary and secondary energy to provide information for cities about their virtual water inflow and outflow and the potential collaboration partners for water management.

Respiratory syncytial virus seasonality, transmission zones, and implications for seasonal prevention strategy in China: a systematic analysis

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) represents a substantial global health challenge, with a disproportionately high disease burden in low-income and middle-income countries. RSV exhibits seasonality in most areas globally, and a comprehensive understanding of within-country variations in RSV seasonality could help to define the timing of RSV immunisation programmes. This study focused on China, and aimed to describe the geographical distribution of RSV seasonality, identify distinct RSV transmission zones, and evaluate the potential suitability of a seasonal RSV prevention strategy. We did a systematic analysis of RSV seasonality in China, with use of data on RSV activity extracted from a systematic review of studies published on Embase, MEDLINE, Web of Science, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Wanfang Data, Chongqing VIP Information, and SinoMed, from database inception until May 5, 2023. We included studies of any design in China reporting at least 25 RSV cases, which aggregated RSV case number by calendar month or week at the province level, and with data covering at least 12 consecutive months before the year 2020 (prior to the COVID-19 pandemic). Studies that used only serology for RSV testing were excluded. We also included weekly data on RSV activity from open-access online databases of the Taiwan National Infection Disease Statistics System and Hong Kong Centre for Health Protection, applying the same eligiblity requirements. Across all datasets, we excluded data on RSV activity from Jan 1, 2020, onwards. We estimated RSV seasonal epidemic onset and duration using the annual average percentage (AAP) approach, and summarised seasonality at the provincial level. We used Pearson's partial correlation analysis to assess the correlation between RSV season duration and the latitude and longitude of the individual provinces. To define transmission zones, we used two independent approaches, an infant-passive-immunisation-driven approach (the moving interval approach, 6-month interval) and a data-driven approach (k-means), to identify groups of provinces with similar RSV seasonality. The systematic review was registered on PROSPERO, CRD42022376993. A total of 157 studies were included along with the two online datasets, reporting data on 194 596 RSV cases over 442 study-years (covering the period from Jan 1, 1993 to Dec 31, 2019), from 52 sites in 23 provinces. Among 21 provinces with sufficient data (≥100 reported cases), the median duration of RSV seasonal epidemics was 4·6 months (IQR 4·1-5·4), with a significant latitudinal gradient (r=-0·69, p<0·0007), in that provinces on or near the Tropic of Cancer had the longest epidemic duration. We found no correlation between longitude and epidemic duration (r=-0·15, p=0·53). 15 (71%) of 21 provinces had RSV epidemics from November to March. 13 (62%) of 21 provinces had clear RSV seasonality (epidemic duration ≤5 months). The moving interval approach categorised the 21 provinces into four RSV transmission zones. The first zone, consisting of five provinces (Fujian, Guangdong, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Yunnan), was assessed as unsuitable for seasonal RSV immunisation strategies; the other three zones were considered suitable for seasonal RSV immunisation strategies with the optimal start month varying between September (Hebei), October (Anhui, Chongqing, Henan, Hubei, Jiangsu, Shaanxi, Shandong, Shanghai, Sichuan, and Xinjiang), and November (Beijing, Gansu, Guizhou, Hunan, and Zhejiang). The k-means approach identified two RSV transmission zones, primarily differentiated by whether the province was on or near the Tropic of Cancer (Fujian, Guangdong, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Yunan, and Hunan) or not (the remaining 15 provinces). Although substantial variations in RSV seasonality were observed across provinces of China, our study identified distinct transmission zones with shared RSV circulating patterns. These findings could have important implications for decision making on RSV passive immunisation strategy. Furthermore, the methodological framework in this study for defining RSV seasons and identifying RSV transmission zones is potentially applicable to other countries or regions. Nanjing Medical University. For the Chinese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Increased harvested carbon of cropland in China

Crop harvested carbon (HC) is one of the most important components of the carbon cycle in cropland ecosystems, with a significant impact on the carbon budget of croplands. China is one of the most important crop producers, however, it is still unknown on the spatial and temporal variations of HC. This study collected statistical data on crop production at the province and county levels in China for all ten crop types from 1981 to 2020 and analyzed the magnitude and long-term trend of harvested crop carbon. Our results found a substantial increase of HC in cropland from 0.185 Gt C yr−1 in 1981 to 0.423 Gt C yr−1 in 2020 at a rate of 0.006 Gt C yr−1. The results also highlighted that the average annual carbon sink removal from crop harvesting in China from 1981 to 2020 was 0.32 Gt C yr−1, which was comparable to the net carbon sink of the entire terrestrial ecosystems in China. This study further generated a gridded dataset of HC from 2001 to 2019 in China by using jointly the statistical crop production and distribution maps of cropland. In addition, a model-data comparison was carried out using the dataset and results from seven state-of-the-art terrestrial ecosystem models, revealing substantial disparities in HC simulations in China compared to the dataset generated in the study. This study emphasized the increased importance of HC for estimating cropland carbon budget, and the produced dataset is expected to contribute to carbon budget estimation for cropland ecosystems and the entire China.

Study on the geographic distribution and influencing factors of Dai settlements in Yunnan based on geodetector

The Dai people are primarily found in Yunnan Province, China, and have a long heritage there. The latest national census reports that Yunnan is home to 1,259,000 individuals of the Dai ethnic group. This study focuses on 3504 Dai settlements in Yunnan, identified through county records. Using the ArcGIS spatial analysis platform, we first evaluated their settlements’ spatial distribution patterns using metrics like the nearest neighbor index and geographic concentration index. Then, we applied geodetector to investigate the underlying mechanisms of their distribution. The results reveal that: (1) Dai settlements in Yunnan Province generally have a cohesive spatial distribution; at the provincial level, however, there is an uneven distribution pattern, with many densely populated areas and a pattern of “two cores, one belt, one area, and two points”; (2) The Dai settlements predominantly occupy the third gradient of the vertical zonation, with Dai gathering settlements primarily found in the Lancang, Ayeyarwaddy, and Red River basins. Conversely, Dai mixed settlements are mainly situated in the Lancang, Red, and Nu River basins; (3) Analysis via geodetector indicates that ethnocultural factors are the most significant in determining the spatial distribution of the Dai settlements, followed by socio-economic and natural factors; (4) The distribution of settlements is significantly influenced by the proportion of the Dai population within these settlements. Dai gathering settlements are typically located on flat slopes with elevations ranging from 500 to 1000 m and slopes of 0°–5°. Meanwhile, Dai mixed settlements are found on gentle slopes with elevations of 1000–2000 m and slopes of 5°–15°. The study reveals that the location of Dai settlements is strongly influenced by environmental considerations and has a significant explanation from similar origins.

Design and Engineering Practices of National Fundamental Geo-entity Relationship

National fundamental geo-entity construction has been vigorously promoted by the Ministry of Natural Resources of the People's Republic of China. As one of the core contents, national fundamental geo-entity relationship faces new requirements of richer content, more intelligent construction, more flexible association, more intuitive expression, and more efficient application. This paper analyzes the existing entity relationship types, defines the content of national fundamental geo-entity relationship, compiles the geo-entity relationship construction table, establishes a practical and feasible process for geo-entity relationship construction through engineering practices. The first batch of national fundamental geo-entity relationship products show that the production process described in this paper can quickly and effectively achieve the construction of national fundamental geo-entity relationship that are rich in content and convenient to apply. It has certain reference and promotion practical in the construction and integration of multi-scale geo-entity relationship at the national, provincial and municipal levels.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGS) Reporting in Provincial Regional Governments Indonesia

Purpose: This research aims to describe the implementation of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in provincial regional governments in Indonesia. Method: The research uses secondary data from the Indonesian Central Statistics Agency with the main data being the Sustainable Development report. The research uses a descriptive quantitative approach with comparative analysis of sample averages with the achievement of sustainable development goals at the national level. Results and conclusion: The research results show that data on achieving sustainable development at the provincial level is very limited and there are six SDGs goals that do not have achievement data. Even though there are limited data, the available SDGs achievement data of eleven achievements shows that the average achievements of provincial regional governments are similar to the SDGs achievements at the national level. This shows that the provincial government's policy regarding SDGs is in line with the central government. Measurement of SDGs achievements in provincial regional governments must be completed and is an obligation to be presented through the Central Statistics Agency's reporting in the future, considering that provincial regional governments' SDGs achievements are an inseparable part of national SDGs achievements. Implications of the Research: The SDGs program at the provincial level must be improved and the formulation of measurement and implementation must be simplified so that provincial governments are able to prepare complete SDGs statistics. Originality/value: This research reveals that the implementation of the SDGs program at the provincial level is in accordance with the implementation of the SDGs at the national level.

Characteristics and mechanism analysis of the clean evolution of China's power generation structure

The power industry in China is the foremost emitter of carbon, necessitating a clean transition in its power generation segment for successful decarbonization. Identifying and quantitative analysis the critical factors that shape the transition and their operational mechanisms will help achieve a secure low-carbon transformation of the energy system. Nonetheless, the body of extensive research in this particular field remains notably limited. To bridge this gap, this paper initiates by developing a comprehensive mechanism framework (REEP) for the transition towards cleaner power generation including Resource endowment (abbreviated as R), Electricity market (abbreviated as E), Economic development (abbreviated as E) and Policy implementation (abbreviated as P) four fields. This framework is based on monthly power generation data derived from four categories of power generation sources at the provincial level in China, spanning the years 2014–2019. It dynamically and quantitative elucidates the multifaceted impacts of various influencing factors on the evolution of the power generation structure. Based on the REEP framework, we observe the power generation structure evolution trends. The study's findings underscore the significance of resource endowment as a paramount internal factor influencing the clean evolution of the power generation structure, while economic development emerges as a pivotal external driving force propelling its transformation. Despite wind and solar power generation accounting for a relatively small proportion at the end of the 14th Five Year Plan period, it is imperative for China to continue promoting the extensive development of renewable energy. While we should coordinate national power transmission and distribution on the foundation of incentivizing technological innovation in emission reduction and the development of energy storage technology. This approach is essential to comprehensively advance the low-carbon and stable development of the energy system, ultimately facilitating the realization of the dual-carbon goal.

China's provincial carbon emission driving factors analysis and scenario forecasting

Studying the drivers of China's carbon emissions at the provincial level can clarify differences in carbon emissions due to initial resource endowments and explore pathways to achieve China's 2030 carbon peak and 2060 carbon-neutral commitments (China's 30.60 decarbonization target). In this paper, the carbon emissions of 30 provinces in China during 2000–2019 were calculated using the emission coefficient method. The LMDI model was used to investigate each province's carbon emission drivers. On this basis, the STIRPAT model is used to predict the carbon emissions of each province under three scenarios: low carbon, baseline, and high carbon. The results show that: (1) China's carbon emissions have significant regional differences, and the trend of total carbon emissions is consistent with that of per capita carbon emissions; (2) Economic development contributes the most to regional carbon emission; (3) China's carbon emission trend can be divided into four patterns: gathering type, discrete type, overlapping type, and idiotype. The results enrich the research on carbon emission drivers and forecasts, provide targeted policy recommendations for China to coordinate regional economic development, energy conservation, and carbon emission reduction, and explore a path for China to achieve the 30.60 decarbonization goal.

Evaluation the impact of electricity consumption on China's air pollution at the provincial level.

As the world's largest electricity-consuming country, China faces the challenge of energy conservation and environmental pollution. Therefore, it is imperative that China takes decisive action to address these issues. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces (cities, districts) in China from 2011 to 2020, we use the entropy method to measure the air pollution index in different provinces, construct two fixed effects models, panel quantile model, and spatial Durbin model to empirically analyze the impact of electricity consumption on air pollution in China's provincial regions. The experimental results show that: (1) Electricity consumption has a significant positive impact on the provincial air pollution index in China and the higher the index is, the more serious the air pollution is. When the electricity consumption increases 1%, the air pollution index will increase of by 0.0649% as accompanied. (2) Through comparison of different times, we found that the degree of increase in air pollution index caused by electricity consumption would be reduced due to the improvement of environmental protection efforts. From the perspective of different geographical locations, the electricity consumption in the southeast side of the "Hu Line" has exacerbated the impact on air pollution index. (3) According to the panel quantile regression results, the marginal effect of electricity consumption on air pollution is positive. With the increase of quantiles, the impact of electricity consumption on air pollution is increasing. (4) Spatial effect analysis shows that electricity consumption has a significant positive spatial spillover effect on air pollution index. The increase in electricity consumption not only increases the air pollution index in the local region, but also leads to an increase in the air pollution index in surrounding areas. These findings contribute to the governance of air pollution and the promotion of sustainable economic, environmental and energy development.

The impact of antiretroviral treatment and child-focused unconditional cash transfers on child mortality

Although there is sufficient evidence in the epidemiological literature that antiretroviral treatment (ART) reduces child mortality, there is limited evidence of its effect in the socio-economic determinants of child mortality literature. Furthermore, evidence on the effect of child focused unconditional cash transfers (UCTs) on child mortality is limited, especially in the African context. Using South Africa's provincial level data over the period 2001 to 2019, we evaluate the effect of ART and child focused UCTs on child mortality. We use the two-stage instrumental variable mean group estimator. We find that ART reduces child mortality. Moreover, we find an inverted U-shaped non-linear relationship between UCTs and child mortality that is contingent to the level of cash transfer coverage. Our analyses also reveal that UCTs improve the effect of ART on child mortality by enhancing access and adherence to treatment. While the focus of our analyses was on the child mortality effects of ART and UCTs, our findings reaffirm the well-documented impacts of factors such as public health expenditure, HIV/AIDS, female education, and health worker density on child mortality. Collectively, the combination of high ART and UCTs coverage, increased public health expenditure, enhanced female education, and improved health worker density, represents value for money for policymakers and funders. These areas should be prioritised to improve child well-being.

How does technological progress affect provincial financial resilience? Evidence at the provincial level in China

The ever-changing global economy and sudden global public health events have posed challenges to financial resilience worldwide. As its important role in maintaining domestic economic stability, safeguarding national security, and enhancing international status, financial resilience has long been widely studied. However, few studies have empirically explored how technological progress affects financial resilience. Based on data from 30 provinces in China, this study adopts a panel two-way fixed effect model to identify the impact of technological progress on financial resilience and the underlying mechanisms. Results show that technological progress can significantly enhance financial resilience, and this impact is stronger in provinces with large population size, high employment proportion in the tertiary sector, high social consumption capacity, and provinces located in Central China. Further, technological progress have a positive impact on financial resilience through increased asset liquidity and government intervention.

Investigation of multidimensional poverty in Pakistan at the national, regional, and provincial level

AbstractTo achieve the sustainable development goal of “no poverty”, many attempts have been made to measure poverty so that policy intervention can target the right people with the correct intensity. Since the traditional method of a unidimensional approach using monetary indicators, such as income and consumption, is now considered insufficient, a multidimensional approach has been employed using non-monetary indicators. The latter approach encompasses the different poverty aspects affecting an individual’s capabilities and functioning. This study aimed to calculate multidimensional poverty in Pakistan using the Alkire &amp; Foster method and Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement (PSLM) published by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics data for 2018–19. To further complete the research, a binary logistic regression has been run to measure the effects of a deviation in income status on multidimensional poverty to see the impact of monetary income on non-monetary measures. Results show that the national global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) is 0.24, meaning that multidimensionally poor people in Pakistan experience 24% of the total deprivations. The most deprived dimension of the three is education (44.7%), which needs special attention. Furthermore, if a household’s total annual income increases and becomes more significant than the mean income of the sample, the household’s probability of being multidimensionally poor will decrease. This implies that with the increase in average national income, the national poverty will reduce not only in absolute terms but also multidimensionally. This study’s findings have several implications for policymakers, and the results of the MPI should align the allocation of public sector resources calculated to give a geographical and sectoral image of the poverty situation, which will guide policy designs and allocation of budget and resources.

Accelerated reduction in China's cropland fires against the background of policy enhancement

Cropland fires contribute significantly to the emission of air pollutants, with implications for the atmospheric environment, public health, and climate change. However, the development of cropland fires in response to straw burning policy interventions has not been fully explored. With the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Collection 6 (MODIS C6) active fire products and China land-cover data (CLCD), counts and fire radiative power (FRP) of cropland fire spots were extracted in China from 2003 to 2022, followed by analyses of their spatiotemporal patterns and evolutionary characteristics at the provincial, regional, national, and grid (0.25° × 0.25°) levels and at monthly to annual scales via trend analysis, kernel density analysis, and geographic distribution analysis. The key findings include: (1) National policies banning straw burning reversed the changes in the quantity and intensity of China's cropland fires in 2013, with the frequency and FRP in 2022 declining by 58% and 62% compared with the 2014 peak. (2) Cropland fires were highly prevalent in Northeast and North China (NEC and NC), with significant regional differences, particularly in spring, summer and autumn. (3) A notable lag effect of burning ban policies was seen in Northeast China, where the increasing trends of the frequency and intensity of cropland fires were not reversed until 2017, followed by declines in frequency and FRP of 67% and 62%, respectively during 2017–2022. (4) Cropland fires showed an increasing concentration trend but with enormous regional differences, with an increasing trend of a “high-high” concentration pattern in NEC and a decreasing trend in NC. This study contributes to understanding the effectiveness of national policies that ban straw burning and support cropland fire management and policy-making.

Quantifying provincial in-use stocks of rare earth to identify urban mining potentials in the Chinese mainland

Recycling of rare earth elements (REE) can help to offset the increasing demand for REE minerals and enhance the diversification of the REE supply chain. The development of low-carbon technologies, such as new energy vehicles and wind turbines has expedited the accumulation of REE as “urban mines”. This trend offers prospects for the progress of REE recycling initiatives targeting end-of-life products. This study conducts a dynamic material flow analysis (combined top-down and bottom-up method) of nine products containing NdFeB permanent magnets (their scrap is regarded as the most important secondary resource of rare earth) in the Chinese mainland at a provincial level to identify end-of-life products and provinces with high urban mining potentials. Results indicate that e-bikes, wind turbines, and air conditioners have the most significant REE recycling potentials in the Chinese mainland. Provinces with large populations and robust economies, such as Guangdong and Jiangsu, exhibit greater potential for REE recycling. This study illustrates significant provincial disparities in the end-of-life recycling potentials of REEs in the Chinese mainland and highlights the significance of provincial-level assessments of urban mining potential in the planning of the REE recycling industry.