Characteristics and mechanism analysis of the clean evolution of China's power generation structure

Abstract

The power industry in China is the foremost emitter of carbon, necessitating a clean transition in its power generation segment for successful decarbonization. Identifying and quantitative analysis the critical factors that shape the transition and their operational mechanisms will help achieve a secure low-carbon transformation of the energy system. Nonetheless, the body of extensive research in this particular field remains notably limited. To bridge this gap, this paper initiates by developing a comprehensive mechanism framework (REEP) for the transition towards cleaner power generation including Resource endowment (abbreviated as R), Electricity market (abbreviated as E), Economic development (abbreviated as E) and Policy implementation (abbreviated as P) four fields. This framework is based on monthly power generation data derived from four categories of power generation sources at the provincial level in China, spanning the years 2014–2019. It dynamically and quantitative elucidates the multifaceted impacts of various influencing factors on the evolution of the power generation structure. Based on the REEP framework, we observe the power generation structure evolution trends. The study's findings underscore the significance of resource endowment as a paramount internal factor influencing the clean evolution of the power generation structure, while economic development emerges as a pivotal external driving force propelling its transformation. Despite wind and solar power generation accounting for a relatively small proportion at the end of the 14th Five Year Plan period, it is imperative for China to continue promoting the extensive development of renewable energy. While we should coordinate national power transmission and distribution on the foundation of incentivizing technological innovation in emission reduction and the development of energy storage technology. This approach is essential to comprehensively advance the low-carbon and stable development of the energy system, ultimately facilitating the realization of the dual-carbon goal.