Purpose: To examine the change of histologic grade of untreated, favorable grade, prostate adenocarcinoma over time on repeat prostate biopsy. Materials and Methods: A prospective single-arm cohort study has been in progress since November 1995, to assess the feasibility of a watchful observation protocol with selective delayed intervention using clinical, histologic, and/or PSA progression as treatment indication in untreated, favorable grade, localized prostate adenocarcinoma. Patients are initially managed with watchful observation alone. When a patient meets the pre-defined criteria of disease progression, appropriate treatment is implemented according to his age, disease extent, co-morbidity, and preference. Eligible subjects must have clinical stage T1b-T2b N0M0, Gleason score (GS) ≤7, and PSA ≤15 ng/ml. Patients are followed every 3 months for the first 2 years and then every 6 months thereafter. At each visit, medical history, physical examination and blood tests including PSA are obtained. Transrectal ultrasound (TRUS) of the prostate and bone scan are performed every 6 and 12 months respectively. TRUS guided prostate biopsy is repeated at 12-18 months after enrolment to evaluate the change in the histologic grade of malignancy. Most initial and subsequent biopsies were centrally reviewed by one pathologist. Possible associations of the change in histologic grade with PSA doubling time (PSAdt), and the baseline clinical parameters of the patients are explored with correlation analysis. PSAdt is estimated from a linear regression of ln(PSA) on time, assuming a simple exponential growth model. Results: As of April 2001, 67(42%) of a total of 161 eligible patients underwent rebiopsy of prostate, and formed the basis of this analysis. None received any treatment prior to rebiopsy. 94 declined or were not subjected to the rebiopsy at the discretion of an attending physician. Median time to rebiopsy was 18 months (range: 9-58). Median age was 70 years (range: 58-81). The distribution of clinical stage, PSA at entry and initial GS was as follows: T1: T2 = 40:27, initial PSA < 5: 5-9.9:10-14.9 = 23:34:10, initial GS 4:5:6:7:GX = 2:13:37:14:1. Median follow-up was 29 months (range: 13-59). GS was unchanged in 21(31%), upgraded in 22(33%) and downgraded in 24(36%) on repeat biopsy (see Table). In 19(28%), there was no malignancy on rebiopsy. The higher initial GS did not predict a higher probability of GS upgrade. There was no statistically significant correlation between the change in histologic grade and PSAdt, or the baseline variables including age, initial PSA, and clinical stage. Conclusion: The histologic grade of malignancy can change over time as the biology of malignancy evolves. In our cohort, 19(28%) did not have malignancy on rebiopsy. This was most likely related to sampling error. Furthermore, there was no consistent upgrade of histologic grade on repeat biopsy at a median of 18 months. This may be due to a short interval between the two biopsies, and/or the favorable clinical and pathological parameters of our cohort which predict very slow biological evolution over time. Also, this observation is subject to the adequacy of biopsy sampling as well as intra- and inter-observer variability of GS. It remains to be seen whether or not upgrade of histologic grade is a useful predictor of disease progression requiring therapeutic intervention in patients managed with watchful observation. Tabled 1Initial GS →GX (n=1)GS 4 (n=2)GS 5 (n=13)GS 6 (n=37)GS 7 (n=14)Histological unchanged002136Histological upgraded116140Histological downgraded01 (no malignancy)5 (no malignancy)10 (no malignancy)8 (3: no malignancy) Open table in a new tab
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