4565 Background: Recent studies have shown a patient's prostate specific antigen (PSA) value can predict risk of future prostate cancer (PCa) development. In the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC), men with PSA ≥1.5 ng/mL had significantly greater risk of developing PCa within 4 years than men with PSA <1.5 ng/mL (9.2% vs 1.5%, respectively; OR=7.466; P<.001). A recent assessment in a Henry Ford population indicated that, across the lower spectrum of PSA values, PSA of 1.5 ng/mL optimally predicted future risk of PCa. The current analysis aimed to assess the PSA threshold value that optimally predicts future risk of PCa in a cohort of veterans. Methods: This is a retrospective analysis of men in the Veterans Health Administration database from 2000-2009. Men ≥40 years with a baseline PSA ≤4.0 ng/mL, not receiving 5-alpha reductase inhibitors, and without a PCa diagnosis prior to first PSA date were included and followed for 4 years. Patients diagnosed with PCa within 6 months of index were excluded. Optimal PSA threshold value for risk of future PCa development was determined by receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves. Results: Of 150,293 patients identified for the analysis, 33,217 were classified as Caucasian, 20,680 as African American, 440 as Other Race (subsequently excluded due to a small sample size), and 95,956 patients had race missing. At baseline, mean age was 59.5 years and mean PSA was 1.11 ng/mL. Overall, 4-year rates of PCa were ∼1.3% for Caucasians and African Americans, and 0.97% for unknown race. Mean time to PCa diagnosis was 2.01 years across all patients. ROC curves indicated a 2.3 PSA threshold (area under the curve [AUC] = 73.5%) optimally predicted future PCa in Caucasians, and a 1.9 threshold (AUC = 84.3%) optimally predicted PCa in African Americans; across all patients, a 1.9 PSA threshold was optimal. Conclusions: A relatively low PSA threshold optimally predicted future cancer risk and may identify candidates for risk reduction strategies. Previous studies suggested a cutoff value for PSA >1.5 ng/mL as predictive of future PCa development; our results suggest a PSA threshold of ∼2.0 was most optimal in predicting PCa within 4 years. Author Disclosure Employment or Leadership Position Consultant or Advisory Role Stock Ownership Honoraria Research Funding Expert Testimony Other Remuneration GlaxoSmithKline GlaxoSmithKline
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