Prospective Population-based Study Research Articles

Comparing PrEP initiation rates by service delivery models among high risk adolescent boys and young men in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: findings from a population-based prospective study

IntroductionPre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is an HIV prevention strategy that can reduce the risk of HIV acquisition by more than 90% if taken consistently. Although South Africa has been implementing PrEP since 2016, initially for selected population groups before expanding access to more people, there is a dearth of research focused on PrEP among adolescent boys and young men (ABYM), despite them experiencing high rates of HIV infection. To address this gap, we compared PrEP initiation rates by service delivery points (SDPs) among ABYM in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.MethodsWe conducted a population-based prospective study in 22 SDPs from July 2021 to July 2022 in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Sexually active ABYM aged 15–35 years who tested HIV negative were recruited at purposively selected PrEP SDPs (i.e., healthcare facilities, secondary schools and Technical Vocational Education and Training (TVET) colleges, and community-based youth zones). We collected baseline quantitative data from each participant using self-administered electronic questionnaires built into REDCap, including demographic information such as age, sex, employment status and level of education, as well as PrEP initiation outcomes. We extracted data from REDCap and exported it to Stata version 17.0 for analysis, and then eliminated discrepancies and removed duplicates. We described baseline characteristics using summary and descriptive statistics (median, interquartile range [IQR] and proportions) and reported PrEP initiation proportions overall and by SDPs.ResultsThe study included 1104 ABYM, with a median age of 24 years (interquartile range (IQR): 21–28)). Almost all participants were black African (n = 1090, 99%), with more than half aged 15–24 years (n = 603, 55%) and 45% (n = 501) aged 25–35 years. The majority (n = 963; 87%) had attained a secondary level of education. Overall PREP initiation rate among adolescent boys and young men was low: among 1078 participants who were eligible for PrEP, 13% (n = 141) were started on PrEP. Among the participants who were initiated on PrEP, over three quarters (78%, n = 58) were initiated from high schools, compared with community-based youth zones (40%, n = 37), TVET colleges (26%, n = 16) and healthcare facilities (4%, n = 30).ConclusionsThis study provided evidence suggesting that expanding PrEP services to non-traditional settings, such as high schools, TVET colleges, and community-based organizations, may have a potential to increase PrEP access among ABYM in South Africa.

Adherence to 2020 ESC recommendations on physical activity in a population with different cardiovascular risk levels: A prospective population-based study from the CoLaus/PsyCoLaus study

IntroductionIn 2020, the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) recommends 150 min of moderate or 75 min of vigorous-intensity PA per week. While general population PA adherence is suboptimal, its status among those with previous ASCVD or high ASCVD risk remains unknown. We aimed to assess objective adherence to ESC PA recommendations using accelerometer-based measurement among these populations. MethodologyWe used data from the Swiss CoLaus|PsyCoLaus cohort study (2014–2016). PA was measured using a 14-day wrist accelerometer. Adherence was defined as > 80 % of recommended PA achievement. Adherence was investigated separately among participants with previous ASCVD and among cardiovascular risk groups (based on the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation SCORE-1 and more recent SCORE2) with simple and multivariable logistic regressions. Participants’ characteristics were also evaluated as independent factors after adjustment. ResultsWe studied 1867 participants (median age: 61.2 years, 51.3 % female). ESC PA Adherence reached 55.5 % overall, and 37 % in those with previous ASCVD. Multivariable analysis showed no significant association between previous ASCVD or high cardiovascular risk and PA adherence (Odds ratio adjusted [ORa] 0.9, 95 % Confidence Interval [CI] 0.6–1.4 and ORa 0.7, 95 % CI 0.4–1.2, respectively). Age (≥60 years old), obesity, smoking, chronic renal disease, hypertension, diabetes and benzodiazepine use were significantly associated with lower likelihood of PA adherence in multivariable logistic regression. ConclusionAdherence to ESC PA guidelines, particularly in participants with higher cardiovascular risk, was poor. Since PA adherence was associated with modifiable risk factors (e.g., obesity, smoking, and benzodiazepine use), maintained efforts to implement the ESC recommendations are advised.

0768 Poor Sleep Quality Increases Mortality Risk. a Population-based Longitudinal Prospective Study in Adults

0768 Poor Sleep Quality Increases Mortality Risk. a Population-based Longitudinal Prospective Study in Adults

The Epidemiology of Newly Recognized Causes of Drug-Induced Liver Injury: An Update.

The incidence and prevalence of drug-induced liver injury appear to be increasing globally, for example, with the introduction of checkpoint inhibitors. Several reviews have been published in the last decade on the epidemiology of DILI, both among hospitalized patients and in the general population, as well as from retrospective and prospective studies on DILI. Most of these reviews have not focused on newly recognized agents that have recently changed the landscape of DILI. Apart from liver injury associated with antibiotics, oncological agents, particularly checkpoint inhibitors, are increasingly being recognized as causing liver injury. The type of liver injury associated with these agents is not idiosyncratic but rather an indirect type of injury. Furthermore, recently, COVID-19 vaccines and green tea extract have been found to lead to liver injury. Checkpoint inhibitors have revolutionized the treatment of many malignancies, such as malignant melanoma, lung cancer, and renal cancer. Via the activation of T cells, they can increase immune activity against malignant cells, but at the same time, they can decrease immune tolerance and therefore lead to immune-related adverse effects in many organs. The most common adverse effect in clinical practice is liver injury. A recent prospective study demonstrated an 8% frequency of DILI due to the use of checkpoint inhibitors among patients with malignant melanoma and renal cancer. This rate is much higher than observed with drugs, leading to idiosyncratic liver injury. Shortly after the implementation of the worldwide vaccination program against COVID-19, several case reports were published on suspected vaccination-induced autoimmune-like hepatitis occurring shortly after the vaccination. At first, these reports were met with skepticism, but currently, around 100 reports have been published, and cases of positive recurrence have been reported. The clinical, biochemical, immunological, and histological features are indistinguishable from classic autoimmune hepatitis (AIH). These reactions are very similar to drug-induced autoimmune-like hepatitis (DI-ALH) due to drugs such as nitrofurantoin, minocycline, and infliximab, which do not relapse after a short course of corticosteroids, which is the general rule in classic autoimmune hepatitis (AIH). Green tea extract has been found to be a well-documented cause of acute hepatocellular liver injury with jaundice. A strong HLA association has been reported, showing a high prevalence of HLA-B*35:01 among patients suffering from green tea-induced liver injury. Overall, 3% of patients recruited in the DILIN study were supplemented with green tea extract as one of the ingredients. In a prospective population-based study from Iceland, green tea was implicated in approximately 8% of patients with DILI.

The prognostic value of serum α-klotho in age-related diseases among the US population: A prospective population-based cohort study

Objectiveα-Klotho is a potential biological marker of aging with satisfactory clinical applicability. However, its prognostic significance in age-related diseases has largely been undermined. Therefore, we aimed to report the prognostic value of serum α-klotho levels in age-related diseases. MethodsParticipants with available serum α-klotho data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2007–2016) were included. Their survival status was collected at 7.62 ± 2.99 years after serum α-klotho data was collected, and the endpoint was all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. A Cox regression model was established to examine the association between serum α-klotho levels and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. ResultsThe present study included 13,746 U.S. adults with a survey-weighted mean age of 56.19 ± 10.42 years old. Of these, 52.2 % were female and 72.9 % were non-Hispanic whites. The optimal cutoff value of serum α-klotho for predicting all-cause mortality risk in the general population was 603.5 pg/ml. Individuals with low serum α-klotho (<603.5 pg/ml) had a significantly higher risk of all-cause (adjusted HR: 1.34(1.18–1.52), P < 0.001) and cardiovascular mortality (adjusted HR: 1.63(1.27–2.10), P < 0.001). Subgroup analysis showed that low serum α-klotho level was an independent risk factor for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in people with hypertension, congestive heart failure, diabetes mellitus, and emphysema, while it was an independent risk factor for all-cause mortality in patients with renal insufficiency. ConclusionA low serum α-klotho concentration (<603.5 pg/ml) could serve as a marker of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in the general population and in people with age-related diseases, including hypertension, congestive heart failure, diabetes mellitus, and emphysema.

Automated radiographic hip morphology measurements: An open-access method

ObjectiveThe aim of this study is to present a newly developed automated method to determine radiographic measurements of hip morphology on dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) images. The secondary aim was to compare the performance of the automated and manual measurements. Design30 DXA scans from 13-year-olds of the prospective population-based cohort study Generation R were randomly selected. The hip shape was outlined automatically using radiographic landmarks from which the acetabular depth-width ratio (ADR), acetabular index (AI), alpha angle (AA), Wiberg and lateral center edge angle (WCEA) (LCEA), extrusion index (EI), neck-shaft angle (NSA), and the triangular index (TI) were determined. Manual assessments were performed twice by two orthopedic surgeons. The agreement within and between observers and methods was visualized using Bland-Altman plots, and the reliability was studied using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) with 95 % confidence intervals (CI). ResultsThe automated method was able to perform all radiographic hip morphology measurements. The intermethod reliability between the automated and manual measurements ranged from 0.57 to 0.96 and was comparable to or better than the manual interobserver reliability, except for the AI. ConclusionThis open-access, automated method allows fast and reproducible calculation of radiographic measurements of hip morphology on right hip DXA images. It is a promising tool for performing automated radiographic measurements of hip morphology in large population studies and clinical practice.

A population-based prospective study on obesity-related non-communicable diseases in northern Iran: rationale, study design, and baseline analysis.

Iran is facing an epidemiological transition with the increasing burden of non-communicable diseases, such as obesity-related disorders and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). We conducted a population-based prospective study to assess the prevalence and incidence rates of CVDs and obesity-related metabolic disorders and to evaluate the predictive ability of various CVD risk assessment tools in an Iranian population. We enrolled 5,799 participants in Amol, a city in northern Iran, in 2009-2010 and carried out the first repeated measurement (RM) after seven years (2016-2017). For all participants, demographic, anthropometric, laboratory, hepatobiliary imaging, and electrocardiography data have been collected in the enrollment and the RM. After enrollment, all participants have been and will be followed up annually for 20 years, both actively and passively. We adopted a multidisciplinary approach to overcome barriers to participation and achieved a 7-year follow-up success rate of 93.0% with an active follow-up of 5,394 participants aged 18-90 years. In the RM, about 64.0% of men and 81.2% of women were obese or overweight. In 2017, about 16.2% and 5.2% of men had moderate or severe non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, while women had a significantly higher prevalence of metabolic syndrome (35.9%), and type 2 diabetes mellitus (20.9%) than men. Of 160 deceased participants, 69 cases (43.1%) died due to CVDs over seven years. The most prevalent obesity-related chronic disease in the study was metabolic syndrome. Across the enrollment and RM phases, women exhibited a higher prevalence of obesity-related metabolic disorders. Focusing on obesity-related metabolic disorders in a population not represented previously and a multidisciplinary approach for enrolling and following up were the strengths of this study. The study outcomes offer an evidence base for future research and inform policies regarding non-communicable diseases in northern Iran.

Association Between Hypertensive Disorders of Pregnancy and Interval Neurocognitive Decline: An Analysis of the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos.

To evaluate whether hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, including gestational hypertension, preeclampsia, and eclampsia, are associated with cognitive decline later in life among U.S. Hispanic/Latina individuals. The HCHS/SOL (Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos) is a prospective population-based study of Hispanic/Latino individuals aged 18-74 years from four U.S. communities. This analysis included parous individuals aged 45 years or older who participated in the HCHS/SOL clinic study visit 1 (2008-2011) neurocognitive assessment and subsequently completed a repeat neurocognitive assessment as part of the Study of Latinos-Investigation of Neurocognitive Aging ancillary study visit 2 (2015-2018). Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy were assessed retrospectively by self-report of any gestational hypertension, preeclampsia, or eclampsia. Cognitive functioning was measured at both study visits with the Brief Spanish-English Verbal Learning Test, Digit Symbol Substitution, and Word Fluency. A regression-based approach was used to define cognitive decline at visit 2 as a function of cognition at visit 1 after adjustment for age, education, and follow-up time. Linear regression models were used to determine whether hypertensive disorders of pregnancy or their component diagnoses were associated with standardized cognitive decline after adjustment for sociodemographic characteristics, clinical and behavioral risk factors, and follow-up time. Among 3,554 individuals included in analysis, the mean age was 56.2 years, and 467 of individuals (13.4%) reported at least one hypertensive disorder of pregnancy. Individuals with hypertensive disorders of pregnancy compared with those without were more likely to have higher mean systolic blood pressure, fasting glucose, and body mass index. After an average of 7 years of follow-up, in fully adjusted models, gestational hypertension was associated with a 0.17-SD relative decline in Digit Symbol Substitution scores (95% CI, -0.31 to -0.04) but not other cognitive domains (Brief Spanish-English Verbal Learning Test or Word Fluency). Neither preeclampsia nor eclampsia was associated with neurocognitive differences. The presence of preeclampsia or eclampsia was not associated with interval neurocognitive decline. In this cohort of U.S. Hispanic/Latina individuals, gestational hypertension alone was associated with decreased processing speed and executive functioning later in life.

Development of a Multivariable Model to Predict the Need for Bone Marrow Sampling in Persons With Monoclonal Gammopathy of Undetermined Significance : A Cohort Study Nested in a Clinical Trial.

Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) and smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM) are asymptomatic precursor conditions to multiple myeloma and related disorders. Smoldering multiple myeloma is distinguished from MGUS by 10% or greater bone marrow plasma cells (BMPC) on sampling, has a higher risk for progression, and requires specialist management. To develop a multivariable prediction model that predicts the probability that a person with presumed MGUS has 10% or greater BMPC (SMM or worse by bone marrow criteria) to inform the decision to obtain a bone marrow sample and compare its performance to the Mayo Clinic risk stratification model. iStopMM (Iceland Screens, Treats or Prevents Multiple Myeloma), a prospective population-based screening study of MGUS. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03327597). Icelandic population of adults aged 40 years or older. 1043 persons with IgG, IgA, light-chain, and biclonal MGUS detected by screening and an interpretable bone marrow sample. Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance isotype; monoclonal protein concentration; free light-chain ratio; and total IgG, IgM, and IgA concentrations were used as predictors. Bone marrow plasma cells were categorized as 0% to 4%, 5% to 9%, 10% to 14%, or 15% or greater. The c-statistic for SMM or worse was 0.85 (95% CI, 0.82 to 0.88), and calibration was excellent (intercept, -0.07; slope, 0.95). At a threshold of 10% predicted risk for SMM or worse, sensitivity was 86%, specificity was 67%, positive predictive value was 32%, and negative predictive value was 96%. Compared with the Mayo Clinic model, the net benefit for the decision to refer for sampling was between 0.13 and 0.30 higher over a range of plausible low-risk thresholds. The prediction model will require external validation. This accurate prediction model for SMM or worse was developed in a population-based cohort of persons with presumed MGUS and may be used to defer bone marrow sampling and referral to hematology. International Myeloma Foundation and the European Research Council.

Impact of high-performance human papillomavirus testing to improve cervical cancer screening in China: a prospective population-based multicentre cohort study

ObjectivesThe aim of the study was to evaluate the clinical performance of HBRT-H14, a real-time PCR-based assay that separates human papillomavirus (HPV) 16 and HPV18 from 12 other high-risk (HR) HPV types, in population according to Chinese guideline. MethodsA total of 9829 eligible women aged 21–64 years from Henan, Shanxi, and Guangdong provinces were performed by HBRT-H14 testing and liquid-based cytology (LBC) screening at baseline and followed up for 3-year. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (absolute risk), and negative predictive value of LBC diagnosis and HPV testing were calculated for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or worse (CIN2+) Lesions. ResultsAt baseline, 80 (0.81%) participants were diagnosed with CIN2+. HR-HPV with reflex LBC had a significantly higher sensitivity (78/80, 97.50% [95% CI, 91.34–99.31%] vs. 62/80, 77.50% [67.21–85.27%], McNemar's test p < 0.001), and a slightly lower specificity (8528/9749, 87.48% [86.80–88.12%] vs. 8900/9749, 91.29% [90.72–91.83%], McNemar's test p < 0.001) than LBC with reflex HR-HPV for CIN2+. 7832 (79.6%) participants completed 3-year follow-up and 172 (2.20%) participants were cumulatively diagnosed with CIN2+. Compared with LBC with reflex HR-HPV, HR-HPV with reflex LBC significantly increased the sensitivity (161/172, 93.60% [88.91–96.39%] vs. 87/172, 50.58% [43.18–57.96%], McNemar's test p < 0.001), but marginally decreased the specificity (6776/7660, 88.46% [87.72–89.16%] vs. 6933/7660, 90.51% [89.83–91.15], McNemar's test p < 0.001). In addition, the absolute 3-year risk of CIN2+ in HPV16/18-positive individuals was as high as 33% (80/238), whereas the risk in the HPV-negative population was only 0.16% (11/6787), much lower than those in the negative for intraepithelial lesion or malignancy population (1.21%, 85/7018). Moreover, similar results were found in women ≥30 years old. DiscussionThe study has indicated that HBRT-14 has a reliable clinical performance for use in cervical screening. The validated HPV test would improve the quality of population screening.

Lifestyle and genetic risk of chronic liver disease in metabolically healthy and unhealthy individuals from the general population

Background & AimsIt is unclear to what extent lifestyle and genetic factors affect incidence of chronic liver disease (CLD) in a general population and if lifestyle affects CLD independently of underlying cardiometabolic perturbations and genetic predisposition. MethodsWe examined 27,991 men and women aged 44-73 years from the Malmö Diet and Cancer Study recruited between 1991-1996 and followed until end of 2020 using registry-linkage (median follow-up time 25.1 years; 382 incident first-time CLD events). Associations between cardiometabolic factors, polygenic risk scores (PRSs), and lifestyle factors in relation to CLD were examined using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models. ResultsIncidence of CLD increased with number of cardiometabolic risk factors (the hazard ratio (HR) per each additional cardiometabolic risk factor was 1.33 (95% CI: 1.21-1.45; p= 5.1 x 10-10). Two novel polygenic risk scores (PRS) for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) and a PRS for liver cirrhosis associated with higher risk of CLD but provided marginal predictive utility on top of other risk factors and compared to the PNPLA3 rs738409 genetic variant. An unhealthy lifestyle (high alcohol intake, current smoking, physical inactivity and unhealthy diet) markedly increased risk of CLD (HR=3.97, 95% CI: 2.59-6.10). Observed associations between examined lifestyle factors and CLD were largely independent of cardiometabolic perturbations and polygenic risk. ConclusionsWe confirmed the importance of cardiometabolic dysfunction in relation to risk of CLD in a general population. Lifestyle risk factors were shown to independently associate with CLD and added predictive information on top of cardiometabolic risk factors. Information on the polygenic risk of liver disease does not currently add to prediction of CLD in a general population. Lay summaryIn this large longitudinal study of a general population, we found that cardiometabolic, genetic and lifestyle risk factors all contribute to the development of chronic liver disease (CLD). Our results suggest that an unhealthy lifestyle, including alcohol consumption, smoking, physical inactivity, and an unhealthy diet, substantially increase risk of CLD independently of underlying genetic risk or cardiometabolic health. This suggest that a large proportion of CLD cases are potentially preventable through adoption of healthy lifestyle changes. Impact and implicationsThis large population-based prospective study suggests largely independent roles of cardiometabolic, lifestyle, and genetic risk factors in the development of chronic liver disease. Findings strengthen the evidence base for a beneficial effect of modification of high-risk lifestyle behaviors in the primary prevention of chronic liver disease in the general population.

A commentary on "Predicting recurrence and survival in patients with non-metastatic renal-cell carcinoma after nephrectomy: a prospective population-based study with multicenter validation".

A commentary on "Predicting recurrence and survival in patients with non-metastatic renal-cell carcinoma after nephrectomy: a prospective population-based study with multicenter validation".

Risk factors for placenta accreta spectrum disorders in women with any prior cesarean and a placenta previa or low lying: a prospective population-based study

This study aimed to identify the risk factors for placenta accreta spectrum (PAS) in women who had at least one previous cesarean delivery and a placenta previa or low-lying. The PACCRETA prospective population-based study took place in 12 regional perinatal networks from 2013 through 2015. All women with one or more prior cesareans and a placenta previa or low lying were included. Placenta accreta spectrum (PAS) was diagnosed at delivery according to standardized clinical and histological criteria. Of the 520,114 deliveries, 396 fulfilled inclusion criteria; 108 were classified with PAS at delivery. Combining the number of prior cesareans and the placental location yielded a rate ranging from 5% for one prior cesarean combined with a posterior low-lying placenta to 63% for three or more prior cesareans combined with placenta previa. The factors independently associated with PAS disorders were BMI ≥ 30, previous uterine surgery, previous postpartum hemorrhage, a higher number of prior cesareans, and a placenta previa. Finally, in this high-risk population, the rate of PAS disorders varies greatly, not only with the number of prior cesareans but also with the exact placental location and some of the women's individual characteristics. Risk stratification is thus possible in this population.

The Study of Adolescent Resilience (SOAR): a research protocol

BackgroundAdolescence is a particularly sensitive period of development for military-connected youth, given the socioemotional and physical changes that occur against the backdrop of the military career of their parent(s). Military-connected adolescents face unique stressors relative to their civilian counterparts, such as military relocations, parental absence due to deployments and trainings, and parental military-related physical and mental injury. These stressors may change family dynamics and disrupt social support networks, which can have lasting implications for adolescent health and well-being. At present, very little is known about how the current generation of military-connected adolescents are faring regarding their psychological and physical health, academic achievement, and educational or career aspirations. As part of the Biden-Harris Administration's commitment to military families, the U.S. Department of Defense pledged to address these major knowledge gaps by supporting the Study of Adolescent Resilience (SOAR). SOAR's longitudinal design provides a powerful tool for evaluating the effects of military family life on adolescent well-being into early adulthood.Methods and designSOAR is embedded within the larger Millennium Cohort Study, the first U.S. population-based prospective study to investigate long-term health effects of military service among active duty service members. Nearly 40,000 Millennium Cohort participants with adolescent children were invited to complete a web-based self-report survey that included items across interpersonal, socioenvironmental, and health domains, among others. Military parents provided referral information for their adolescent child and another primary parental figure, when available, to be invited to SOAR. This approach allowed survey data to be linked between these three family members (service member, spouse, and adolescent) to promote a comprehensive, family systems-based understanding of military-connected adolescent experiences and determinants of health, risk, and resilience.DiscussionResearch findings will shed light on the enduring impact of military life on adolescents and the nature of associations between military-specific experiences and psychosocial health and well-being. Further, this research will assess modifiable risk and protective factors that may elucidate differences in military-connected adolescent psychosocial development and physical health, academic achievement, and educational and military career aspirations over time.ConclusionsFindings gleaned from this research will be used to inform existing policy and programs designed to promote adolescent resilience.

Incidence of Multiple Sclerosis in Uruguay: A Prospective Population-Based Study

Background: The worldwide incidence of multiple sclerosis (MS) is estimated at 0.5–10 cases per 100,000 person-years and is probably increasing. In 2014, a previous study estimated the incidence of multiple sclerosis in Uruguay at 1.2 cases per 100,000 person-years. Objectives: We conducted an observational, prospective, population-based study to determine MS incidence from diagnosis in Uruguay. Methods: The population studied included people older than 18 years of age who were living in Uruguay between July 1, 2019, and June 30, 2021. The diagnosis was based on 2017 McDonald criteria. Multiple data sources were employed including neurologists, magnetic resonance imaging centers, laboratories performing oligoclonal band testing, neurophysiology laboratories, neurorehabilitation centers, the institution Fondo Nacional de Recursos, and the MS Patients’ Association of Uruguay (EMUR). The capture-recapture method was used to estimate incidence. Results: 155 new MS cases were confirmed after review. The median age was 35 (range 18–62). Thirteen patients (8.38%) were diagnosed with late-onset MS. The crude incidence rate was 2.89 cases per 100,000 person-years, 3.95 among females, and 1.72 among male patients. The incidence rate estimated using the capture-recapture method was 3.18 (95% CI: 3.02–3.34). Conclusions: According to the Atlas of MS, Uruguay has a low incidence rate (2.0–3.99), even though it is one of the highest in Latin America. Our country aligns with the global trend of increasing incidence. Age and sex distribution were similar to other studies, with a high incidence of patients with late-onset multiple sclerosis. The capture-recapture method confirms the exhaustivity of our investigation.

Association of depressive symptoms with cardiovascular events and plasma BNP: A prospective cohort study of the elderly Chinese population

ObjectiveTo estimate the prevalence of depressive symptoms and to evaluate the associations of mild and significant depressive symptoms with cardiovascular events and plasma BNP levels (which are surrogate endpoints for cardiovascular events) among older adults in a population-based study. MethodsA population-based prospective study of 1,432 elderly people (aged 70–84 years and without cardiovascular disease) was conducted, and the median duration of follow-up for participants with outcomes was 18 weeks. Depressive symptoms were assessed with the 15-item Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS-15). The hazard ratios (HRs) for the time to events and time to death were calculated using the Cox regression analysis. Multiple linear regression models and Spearman rank correlations were used to examine the association of depressive symptoms with Log BNP values. ResultsThe prevalence of mild (GDS-15 scores ≥ 6) and significant (GDS-15 scores ≥ 10) depressive symptoms were 7.3% and 2.0% at baseline, respectively. Older adults with significant depressive symptoms exhibited increased risks of time to death (HR: 12.56; 95% CI: 3.58–43.99) and composite cardiovascular endpoints (HR: 3.46; 95% CI: 1.19–3.75). Significant depressive symptoms were associated with Log BNP levels (β=0.56, P = 0.02). Depressive symptom scores were also associated with Log BNP levels (rs=0.21, P = 0.04) in the older adults with depressive symptoms. ConclusionsSignificant depressive symptoms were associated with a higher risk of cardiovascular events and higher BNP levels in the elderly.

Male genitourinary schistosomiasis-related symptoms among long-term Western African migrants in Spain: a prospective population-based screening study

BackgroundSchistosomiasis is highly endemic in sub-Saharan Africa and frequently imported to Europe. Male urogenital manifestations are often neglected. We aimed to ascertain the prevalence of genitourinary clinical signs and symptoms among long-term African migrants in a non-endemic European country using a serology test.MethodsWe carried out a prospective, community-based cross-sectional study of adult male migrants from sub-Saharan Africa living in Spain. Schistosoma serology tests and microscopic urine examinations were carried out, and clinical data were obtained from an electronic medical record search and a structured questionnaire.ResultsWe included 388 adult males, mean age 43.5 years [Standard Deviation (SD) = 12.0, range: 18–76]. The median time since migration to the European Union was 17 [Interquartile range (IQR): 11–21] years. The most frequent country of origin was Senegal (N = 179, 46.1%). Of the 338, 147 (37.6%) tested positive for Schistosoma. Parasite eggs were present in the urine of only 1.3%. Nine genitourinary clinical items were significantly associated with positive Schistosoma serology results: pelvic pain (45.2%; OR = 1.57, 95% CI: 1.0–2.4), pain on ejaculation (14.5%; OR = 1.85, 95% CI: 1.0–3.5), dyspareunia (12.4%; OR = 2.45, 95% CI: 1.2–5.2), erectile dysfunction (9.5%; OR = 3.10, 95% CI: 1.3–7.6), self-reported episodes of infertility (32.1%; OR = 1.69, 95% CI: 1.0–2.8), haematuria (55.2%; OR = 2.37, 95% CI: 1.5–3.6), dysuria (52.1%; OR = 2.01, 95% CI: 1.3–3.1), undiagnosed syndromic STIs (5.4%), and orchitis (20.7%; OR = 1.81, 95% CI: 1.0–3.1). Clinical signs tended to cluster.ConclusionsUrogenital clinical signs and symptoms are prevalent among male African long-term migrants with a positive Schistosoma serology results. Genital involvement can be frequent even among those with long periods of non-residence in their sub-Saharan African countries of origin. Further research is needed to develop diagnostic tools and validate therapeutic approaches to chronic schistosomiasis.Graphical

Improving Lung Cancer Screening Selection: The HUNT Lung Cancer Risk Model for Ever-Smokers Versus the NELSON and 2021 United States Preventive Services Task Force Criteria in the Cohort of Norway: A Population-Based Prospective Study

BackgroundImproving the method for selecting participants for lung cancer (LC) screening is an urgent need. Here, we compared the performance of the Helseundersøkelsen i Nord-Trøndelag (HUNT) Lung Cancer Model (HUNT LCM) versus the Dutch-Belgian lung cancer screening trial (Nederlands-Leuvens Longkanker Screenings Onderzoek (NELSON)) and 2021 United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) criteria regarding LC risk prediction and efficiency. MethodsWe used linked data from 10 Norwegian prospective population-based cohorts, Cohort of Norway. The study included 44,831 ever-smokers, of which 686 (1.5%) patients developed LC; the median follow-up time was 11.6 years (0.01–20.8 years). ResultsWithin 6 years, 222 (0.5%) individuals developed LC. The NELSON and 2021 USPSTF criteria predicted 37.4% and 59.5% of the LC cases, respectively. By considering the same number of individuals as the NELSON and 2021 USPSTF criteria selected, the HUNT LCM increased the LC prediction rate by 41.0% and 12.1%, respectively. The HUNT LCM significantly increased sensitivity (p < 0.001 and p = 0.028), and reduced the number needed to predict one LC case (29 versus 40, p < 0.001 and 36 versus 40, p = 0.02), respectively. Applying the HUNT LCM 6-year 0.98% risk score as a cutoff (14.0% of ever-smokers) predicted 70.7% of all LC, increasing LC prediction rate with 89.2% and 18.9% versus the NELSON and 2021 USPSTF, respectively (both p < 0.001). ConclusionsThe HUNT LCM was significantly more efficient than the NELSON and 2021 USPSTF criteria, improving the prediction of LC diagnosis, and may be used as a validated clinical tool for screening selection.

Female genitourinary schistosomiasis-related symptoms in long-term sub-Saharan African migrants in Europe: a prospective population-based study.

The involvement of genital women tract of chronic schistosomiasis among African migrant women in non-endemic countries might be more prevalent than expected. A gold standard diagnostic is most needed to determine the true prevalence of this condition and characterize the clinical presentation of female genital schistosomiasis among this particular population.

Plasma calprotectin and new-onset type 2 diabetes in the general population: a prospective cohort study.

Systemic inflammation plays a pivotal role in the development of type 2 diabetes (T2D). Here we hypothesized that circulating levels of calprotectin, a myeloid cell-derived biomarker of inflammation, is associated with the development of new-onset T2D in the general population. A total of 4,815 initially non-diabetic participants of the Prevention of Renal and Vascular ENd-stage Disease (PREVEND), a prospective population-based cohort study, were assessed for plasma levels of calprotectin at baseline. Circulating levels of calprotectin were investigated for potential associations with the risk of new-onset T2D, defined as a fasting plasma glucose level ≥7.0 mmol/l, a random plasma glucose level ≥11.1 mmol/l, a self-reported physician-based diagnosis of T2D, the use of glucose-lowering drugs, or any combinations thereof. Median plasma calprotectin levels were 0.49 [0.35-0.69] mg/l. Plasma calprotectin levels were significantly associated with the risk of new-onset T2D (hazard ratio [HR] per doubling 1.42 [95% confidence interval: 1.22-1.66], P<0.001). The association remained independent of adjustment for age and sex (HR 1.34 [95%CI: 1.14-1.57], P<0.001), but not after further adjustment for potentially confounding factors (HR 1.11 [95% CI: 0.90-1.37], P=0.326), with adjustment for hyperlipidemia and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein explaining the loss of significance. Stratified analyses showed significant effect modification by hypertension, history of cardiovascular disease and HOMA-IR (Pinteraction≤0.001 for each), with higher HRs in individuals without hypertension, without history of cardiovascular disease and with below-median HOMA-IR. Elevated plasma levels of calprotectin are associated with a higher risk of developing T2D in the general population and may represent a moveable inflammatory biomarker. This association, however, does not represent a direct effect, and seems dependent on hyperlipidemia and systemic inflammation.