Pronounced Seasonality Research Articles

Methane in the Water Column of the Gdansk Deep (Baltic Sea): Seasonal and Vertical Variability

The study of the vertical distribution of methane dissolved in water and related parameters (water temperature and salinity, dissolved oxygen concentration) was carried out in 2021–2023 at the offshore carbon supersite Rosyanka in the Gdansk Deep of the Baltic Sea. Measurements with such frequency (a total of 16 surveys) were carried out in the region for the first time. Methane concentrations varied over a fairly wide range (0.000–1.122 μmol/L), and increased with depth, which is a typical distribution for the Baltic Sea and is associated with the vertical stratification of the water column. Single maximum values were characteristic of the layer extending from the bottom to the upper boundary of the halocline, which indicates the flow of methane from bottom sediments into the water column. In the near-surface layer (5–15 m), a weakly pronounced peak in methane concentrations was observed, which is a manifestation of the “oceanic methane paradox”. No pronounced seasonality was detected in the vertical distribution of dissolved methane; the correlation between temperature, salinity, oxygen, and methane content turned out to be low.

A Global Analysis of Historical and Future Changes in Mediterranean Climate‐Type Regions

ABSTRACTMediterranean climate‐type regions (MCRs) are characterised by warm‐to‐hot dry summers and mild‐wet winters. These regions are typically found on the western or southern edges of continents, for example, in the Mediterranean Basin, the west coast of North and South America, southern Africa and southwest Australia. The MCRs are vulnerable to climate variability and change related to their unique characteristics, such as pronounced rainfall seasonality and prolonged hot and dry summers. Based on historical observations and CMIP6 climate projections, we apply an empirical bio‐climatic assessment of how the geographic distribution of MCRs has changed during the last century and how these zones will be further impacted under continued warming. Results indicate a poleward and eastward expansion of MCRs in the Mediterranean Basin, North America‐California and South America‐Central Chile regions. For parts of Southern Africa and Southern Australia, a retreat of the MCR margins and an expansion of more arid climate zones are projected. These shifts are particularly profound according to high emission and radiative forcing pathways and future scenarios. The warming in MCRs is projected to accelerate (e.g., mean regional warming of up to 5.5°C under a 4°C global warming scenario), and precipitation will decrease by about 5%–10% for every additional degree of global warming. One exception is the California MCR, where rainfall will likely increase. Such changes can challenge water resources, food security and other aspects of human livelihood and ecosystems in these unique geographical zones.

A Climatology of the Comprehensive Climate Index and Input Values for Türkiye, 1985–2014

Spatial and temporal variations and trends in the Comprehensive Climate Index (CCI) and relevant input values are presented and discussed for fifteen locations across Türkiye. Environmental conditions that are stressful to livestock are captured in the CCI model metrics, which are determined using input of temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation data. The period from 1985 to 2014 is used to characterize the climatology of CCI across Türkiye. Given its midlatitude location, pronounced seasonality exists in the individual input values and in CCI index values. Differences across Türkiye in CCI are strongly influenced by elevation and moderated for coastal locations. Warming temperature trends and declining levels of humidity combine to create a pattern where CCI has increased at some locations and declined at other places since 1985.

Temporal consistency and spatial variability in detection: implications for monitoring of macroinvertebrates from shallow groundwater aquifers

Implementing and optimizing biodiversity monitoring is crucial given the current, worldwide biodiversity decline. Compared to other ecosystems, monitoring of biodiversity is lagging behind in groundwater ecosystems, both because of sparse taxonomic knowledge and methodological constraints. We here assessed temporal variation in the occurrence and abundance of macroinvertebrates collected systematically from shallow groundwater aquifers of Switzerland to establish general principles on seasonality and repeatability of assessment outcomes. We found no seasonal abundance pattern for obligate groundwater amphipods and isopods, indicating temporal consistency. In contrast, other macroinvertebrates (predominantly stygophiles and stygoxenes) showed pronounced seasonality in their detection rate. However, we found variability in detection rates across groundwater amphipod species and especially across sampling sites. For groundwater communities, characterized by narrowly-distributed and rare species, our results highlight the need for tailored and extensive sampling strategies. When setting up monitoring programs on groundwater fauna, detection probability, temporal autocorrelation, and standardization of sampling effort should be carefully considered. Applying novel, systematic approaches, can offer promising methodologies for understanding and conserving groundwater ecosystems.

Characteristics and Indicative Significance of Groundwater Stable Isotopes in the Loess Plateau at the Regional Scale

Regional groundwater recharge is a critical scientific issue for sustainable groundwater resource development and management. However, spatial variations in groundwater recharge in the Loess Plateau （LP） remain poorly understood. To fill this knowledge gap, a systematic sampling campaign and stable isotope analysis were carried out for groundwater （shallow aquifer） in 13 major catchments during July 2019. The main objectives of this study were： ① to understandthe spatial distribution and influencing factors of stable isotopes in groundwater and ② to reveal the groundwater recharge sources and pathways and their spatial variations, combined with the precipitation stable isotope datasets. Stable isotopes in groundwater had poor spatial variations at the regional scale； however, they became isotopically depleted with the increase in annual average precipitation on the catchment scale （r = -0.87）. Compared with the stable isotope of precipitation, stable isotopes of groundwater were generally depleted and were similar to the precipitation of the rainy season （July-September）. These together indicated that there was pronounced seasonality of groundwater recharge, and the main recharge period was the rainy season. In particular, the recharge seasonality index （δP/G） was closely related to the catchment's average annual precipitation （r = -0.77） and leaf area index （r = -0.63）. In addition, groundwater lc-excess was generally negative, with the catchment-mean value ranging from -4.3‰ to -0.7‰. Hydrologically, this indicated that groundwater recharge pathways （ratio of matrix flow vs. preferential flow） were different among these catchments, which should be quantitatively determined by combining the saturated zone （groundwater） and the unsaturated zone （soil） in future work. Our findings can improve the understanding of groundwater recharge in LP and provide a scientific basis for sustainable management of groundwater resources at the regional scale.

Facies architecture, pedogenesis and palynology of the Olenekian dryland setting – A sedimentary record of Early Triassic climate oscillations in the SE Germanic Basin

The Early Triassic period was characterised by significant climatic perturbations driven by generally high global temperatures. Several significant shifts in the stable carbon and oxygen isotopes were recognised in the marine settings in the Olenekian age deposits that were linked to short-lasting but relatively high-amplitude climatic events. The record of these events in the continental strata is far less understood due to the stratigraphic incompleteness of such deposits. However, in the Holy Cross Mountains (Poland), the Olenekian continental deposits are well preserved, and sedimentation was relatively continuous, making them an ideal candidate for studying the effects of climate changes and their preservation in continental settings. As such, sedimentological analysis of five wells and one outcrop (over 530 m logged in total), integrated with new and legacy palynological data, allowed the reconstruction and dating of major steps in the palaeoenvironmental evolution of the SE part of the Central European (Germanic Basin), and its comparison with the marine-based climatic models for the Early Triassic. The lower and middle Olenekian stage is represented by fine-grained deposits of dry floodplain interbedded with sandstones deposited within fluvial distributary channels and terminal splays. The palaeosols are mainly represented by aridisols (calcisols), indicating a relatively dry, though not extreme, climate as some water was necessary to support relict plant cover. Towards the mid-Spathian times, the climate became more humid - lacustrine deposits appeared, and palaeosols displayed features of an elevated water table (gleyed vertisols and inceptisols). Frequent storms and floods also affected the lacustrine sedimentation, reflecting volatile climatic conditions. In the late Spathian time, continental sedimentation continued, and the dominance of vertisols and more stacked fluvial channels in the sequence is linked with an increased seasonality, with more pronounced humid seasons. The continental setting lasted until the latest Spathian time, when a marine transgression occurred, marking a new phase in the basin development.

Epidemiological characterization of hand, foot, and mouth disease among hospitalized children from 2014 to 2023 in a hospital in Henan Province: Longitudinal surveillance study.

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is an acute infectious illness primarily caused by enteroviruses. The present study aimed to describe the epidemiological characteristics of hospitalized HFMD patients in a hospital in Henan Province (Zhengzhou, China), and to predict the future epidemiological parameters. In this study, we conducted a retrospective analysis of general demographic and clinical data on hospitalized children who were diagnosed with HFMD from 2014 to 2023. We used wavelet analysis to determine the periodicity of the disease. We also conducted an analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on the detection ratio of severe illness. Additionally, we employed a Seasonal Difference Autoregressive Moving Average (SARIMA) model to forecast characteristics of future newly hospitalized HFMD children. A total of 19 487 HFMD cases were included in the dataset. Among these cases, 1515 (7.8%) were classified as severe. The peak incidence of HFMD typically fell between May and July, exhibiting pronounced seasonality. The emergence of COVID-19 pandemic changed the ratio of severe illness. In addition, the best-fitted seasonal ARIMA model was identified as (2,0,2)(1,0,1)12. The incidence of severe cases decreased significantly following the introduction of the vaccine to the market (χ2 = 109.9, p < 0.05). The number of hospitalized HFMD cases in Henan Province exhibited a seasonal and declining trend from 2014 to 2023. Non-pharmacological interventions implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic have led to a reduction in the incidence of severe illness.

Recent and forecasted increases in coccidioidomycosis incidence in California linked to hydroclimatic swings.

Coccidioidomycosis, or Valley fever, is an infectious disease caused by inhalation of Coccidioides spp., fungi found primarily in soils of the southwestern United States. Prior work showed that coccidioidomycosis cases in California sharply increase by nearly 2-fold following wet winters that occur one- and two-years following drought. Statewide drought between 2020-2022 followed by heavy precipitation during the 2022-2023 winter raised concerns over potential increases in coccidioidomycosis cases in the fall of 2023, prompting California Department of Public Health (CDPH) to issue public health alerts. As anticipated, California saw a near record number of cases in 2023, with 9,054 provisional cases reported. During the 2023-2024 California wet season, precipitation was 115% the long-term average, furthering concerns about continued high coccidioidomycosis risk. We developed an ensemble model to forecast coccidioidomycosis cases in California in 2024-2025. Using this model, we predicted a total of 11,846 cases (90% PI: 10,056-14,094) in California between April 1, 2023, and March 31, 2024, encompassing the preliminary state report of 10,593. Our model forecasted 12,244 cases statewide between April 1, 2024, and March 31, 2025 - a 62% increase over the cases reported during the same period two years prior, and on par with the high incidence seen in 2023. The Southern San Joaquin Valley (5,398 cases, 90% PI: 4,556-6,442), Southern Coast (3,322, 90% PI: 2,694-3,961), and Central Coast (1,207 cases, 90% PI: 867-1,585) regions are expected to see the largest number of infections. Our model forecasts that disease incidence will exhibit pronounced seasonality, particularly in endemic regions, with cases rising in June and peaking in November at 1,411 (90% PI: 815-2,172) cases statewide - 98% higher than the peak two years prior (714) and nearly as high as the peak in 2023 (1,462). Near-term forecasts have the potential to inform public health messaging to enhance provider and patient awareness, encourage risk reduction practices, and improve recognition and management of coccidioidomycosis.

Performance of mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis under variable environmental conditions and anthropogenic pressure: A survey of two distinct farming sites in the Adriatic Sea

Changes in natural conditions and anthropogenic pollutants, alone or in combination, pose a significant challenge to coastal bivalve populations. The susceptibility of economically important bivalves to potential stressors in their farming environment has not been sufficiently investigated, despite the increase in anthropogenic pressure along the coast and the remarkable warming of seawater in recent years. Thus, the aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of mussel (Mytilus galloprovincialis) from two important farming sites in the eastern Adriatic, namely Mali Ston Bay (MSB) and Lim Bay (LB), in relation to variations of seawater parameters, reproductive cycle dynamics and tissue content of potentially harmful pollutants. The complex seasonal and site-specific patterns of chemical pollutants were determined, with tissue levels of metals, As, PAHs and PCBs largely comparable to those previously reported for the Mediterranean region. Concentrations of organochlorinated pesticides were below the level of detection. Significantly higher Cd, As and Hg concentrations were detected in the tissues of the MSB mussels. The reproductive cycle was clearly associated with the bioaccumulation of pollutants. All biochemical response parameters varied to some extent across seasons and/or between farming sites. A very pronounced seasonality was recorded for acetylcholinesterase and glutathione S-transferase activity at both sites. Metallothionein concentration and superoxide dismutase activity were generally steady throughout the study period. The most striking difference between the two sites was recorded for lipid peroxides concentrations which were predominantly significantly higher in the MSB mussels, indicating expressed pro-oxidant conditions at this site. In particular, significant correlations were found between lipid peroxides and the potentially toxic metals (Cd, As, Hg) accumulated in the mussel tissue. Data reported here are valuable as baseline information for further studies related to stress in farmed bivalves caused by oscillations of environmental factors and increasing anthropogenic pressure along the coastline.

Can urban shrinkage contribute to mitigating surface air temperature warming?

In recent years, urban areas are increasingly experiencing intense warming. Although urbanization is an important driver of warming in urban environments, it remains unclear whether depopulation trends in shrinking cities mitigate this warming effect. Here, we explored the relationship between shrinking cities and observed warming in China. Of the 356 Chinese cities, 95 were identified as shrinking between 2000 and 2010. We categorized 2419 observation stations into three groups—rural, shrinking, and non-shrinking—and generated a surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly series for each group from 1961 to 2014. Temperature differences between the shrinking and non-shrinking urban stations were investigated. Using segmented generalized least squares regression, the spatiotemporal temperature patterns across the mean (Tmean), maximum (Tmax), and minimum temperatures (Tmin), diurnal temperature range (DTR) indicators, and across seasons—spring, summer, autumn, and winter—were explored. Results revealed a cooling effect in shrinking cities, with decadal decreases of 0.042 °C (–0.078 to –0.005 °C), 0.083 °C (–0.126 to –0.039 °C), and 0.029 °C (–0.062 to –0.005 °C) in regional Tmean, Tmax, and Tmin anomalies, respectively. Moreover, pronounced seasonality was identified in this phenomenon—the cooling effect was most notable for Tmean in spring and Tmax in autumn, less significant in summer, and negligible in winter. These results suggested that the population decline in shrinking cities could alleviate regional warming, having implications that could influence urban planning and climate mitigation policies.

Astronomically forcing salinity variations in a marginal-marine environment, Bohai Bay Basin, NE China

Exploring the interdependence between watermass conditions and climate change in marginal marine regions is essential for gaining insights into contemporary environmental challenges arising from global warming. Salinity, a key parameter of watermass conditions in coastal areas, plays a crucial role in influencing nutrient availability, stratification, and the spatial-temporal distribution of redox conditions. Here, we focus on the cyclostratigraphic analysis of gamma-ray (GR) data obtained from Eocene strata in the Luo-69 drillcore from the Bohai Bay Basin (NE China). This analysis establishes a high-resolution astronomical time scale (ATS) for the lower third member of the Shahejie Formation (Es3l), spanning 39.04 Ma to 41.46 million years ago (Ma). Various proxies for watermass conditions, such as salinity, sedimentary structures, mineral content, total organic carbon (TOC), organic carbon isotopes and nitrogen isotopes (δ13Corg and δ15N), exhibit a strong correlation with 405-kyr long orbital eccentricity climate forcing. Notably, spectral analysis of salinity data (represented by the Sr/Ba proxy) reveals a clear astronomical control, with 405-kyr eccentricity cycles that align closely with variations in the GR data. Peaks in paleosalinity, as indicated by Sr/Ba (as well as B/Ga and S/TOC), correspond with maxima in 405-kyr long orbital eccentricity cycles in the GR data. As such, we infer that astronomical forcing regulated long-term changes in watermass conditions, likely through mediation of the East Asia monsoon system. Specifically, during eccentricity maxima, the basin would have experienced a warm and humid climate with pronounced seasonality and a robust summer monsoon. During such periods, increased continental runoff would lead to a rise in lake-levels, facilitating better connections with the ocean, and hence increased salinity. By contrast, during eccentricity minima, cooler and more arid conditions with weaker seasonality would result in lower lake levels which together with a global eustatic lowstand would result in as weakened connection with the open ocean restricting the ingress of seawater into the basin lowering salinity. Our dataset spans the Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (MECO, ∼40.60–40.10 Ma), identified by elevated GR values and a conspicuous negative excursion in oxygen isotopes. This interval is characterized by a significant decline in salinity, likely attributed to enhanced freshwater runoff driven by an extremely warm and humid climate. The paleosalinity fluctuation recorded by the proxies B/Ga, Sr/Ba, and S/TOC in Bohai Bay Basin demonstrate the sensitivity of marginal-marine environment to subtle changes in climate driven by astronomical forcing. Our results provide new insights into how elemental salinity proxies can be utilized in paleoenvironmental reconstruction studies.

Streamflow Prediction at the Intersection of Physics and Machine Learning: A Case Study of Two Mediterranean‐Climate Watersheds

AbstractAccurate streamflow predictions are essential for water resources management. Recent studies have examined the use of hybrid models that integrate machine learning models with process‐based (PB) hydrologic models to improve streamflow predictions. Yet, there are many open questions regarding optimal hybrid model construction, especially in Mediterranean‐climate watersheds that experience pronounced wet and dry seasons. In this study, we performed model benchmarking to (a) compare hybrid model performance to PB and machine learning models and (b) examine the sensitivity of hybrid model performance to PB model parameter calibration, structural complexity, and variable selection. Hybrid models were generated by post‐processing process‐based models using Long Short‐Term Memory neural networks. Models were benchmarked within two northern California watersheds that are managed for both municipal water supplies and aquatic habitat. Though model performance varied substantially by watershed and error metric, calibrated hybrid models frequently outperformed both the machine learning model (for 72% of watershed‐model‐metric combinations) and the calibrated process‐based models (for 79% of combinations). Furthermore, hybrid models were relatively insensitive to PB model calibration and structural complexity, but sensitive to PB model variable selection. Our results demonstrate that hybrid models can improve streamflow prediction in Mediterranean‐climate watersheds. Additionally, hybrid model insensitivity to PB model parameter calibration and structural complexity suggests that uncalibrated or less complex PB models could be used in hybrid models without any loss of streamflow prediction accuracy, improving model construction efficiency. Moreover, hybrid model sensitivity to the selection of PB model variables suggests a strategy for diagnosing poorly performing PB model components.

Floodplain carbon dioxide emissions strongly exceed those of the main river stem: A case study of the Ob River, western Siberia

The importance of floodplains in carbon (C) evasion from the lotic systems is especially important in continental plains of low runoff such as the organic-rich Western Siberian Lowland (WSL). To quantify the relative importance of the floodplain compared to main stem CO2 emissions, we monitored a large region of the Ob River’s middle course (permafrost-free zone) over 3 months from spring to summer. We calculated seasonal water coverage using remote sensing, GIS and hydrologically-based approaches and measured CO2 emissions using floating chambers. There was a strongly pronounced seasonality in the water area’s extent of the floodplain with water covering > 40 % of land during the ∼ 30 days of the most intensive spring flood (May – June) and subsequently declining to ≤ 10 % during summer (July-August). Maximal CO2 emissions were recorded in most shallow water bodies of the floodplain, notably in temporary flooded fens and birch forests. The CO2 emissions during the study period ranged from 0.2 ± 0.2 to 0.9 ± 0.2 g Cm−2 d-1 for the floodplain and 0.03 ± 0.34 g C m−2 d-1 for the Ob’s main channel.CO2 emissions from the floodplain were ∼ 163 ± 20 t C per km for the river’s main stem during the 95 day study period. The partial contributions of temporary flooded zones, main stem, and permanent lakes / secondary channels to total emissions (1820 km² area) were 70, 16, and 14 %, respectively. Over spring and summer seasons, contributions from flooded zones ranged from 43 to 99 % of total CO2 emissions from water surfaces of the Ob River’s middle course. Extrapolation of obtained results to the entire territory of the Ob River floodplain indicates that not accounting for the floodplain emissions may sizably—up to an order of magnitude—underestimate the CO2 emissions from riverine systems in Western Siberia during open water period. Future work on the Ob River floodplain in the permafrost-bearing zone should be prioritized and would allow adequate upscaling of C emission from this environmentally important territory.

Compound droughts under climate change in Switzerland

Abstract. The co-occurrence of meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts (multivariate compound droughts) in Switzerland during growing season is problematic due to limitations in water abstractions from rivers during low-flow periods, while at the same time the need for irrigation is high. We analyse compound droughts for 52 catchments in Switzerland during the extended summer season (May–October) using the transient climate and hydrological scenarios for Switzerland (CH2018 and Hydro-CH2018) for both a scenario with mitigation (representative concentration pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6), 8 model chains) and a scenario without mitigation (RCP8.5, 20 model chains). In the RCP8.5 scenario the number of compound drought days is projected to significantly increase by mid-century across all greater regions of Switzerland. The increased frequency is mainly a result of more frequent events (significant) rather than longer event durations (non-significant). Models generally agree on the sign of change. By 2085, compound drought events are projected to occur in median once per catchment per extended summer season north of the Alps and every 1–2 years south of the Alps. Further, the increases in compound drought days mainly occur between May–October, leading to a shift in the main agricultural production season and a more pronounced seasonality with the highest occurrence probabilities between mid-July and the beginning of October. Coupled to the increase in days and events, significantly more catchments are projected to be affected by compound droughts at the same time. In the RCP2.6 (mitigation) scenario, the increase in the number of compound drought days and events is not significant by the end of the 21st century. In comparison with RCP8.5, the number of compound drought days is reduced by 50 %–55 % north of the Alps and by up to 75 % south of the Alps by the end of the century. This emphasizes the need for coordinated adaptation in combination with mitigation measures taken at an early stage.

The optimum fire window: applying the fire–productivity hypothesis to Jurassic climate states

Abstract. Present-day fire frequency is related to a productivity–aridity gradient on regional and global scales. Optimum fire conditions occur at times of intermediate productivity and aridity, whereas fire is limited at the high productivity (moisture) and aridity (no fuel) endmembers. However, the current global fire activity pattern is reinforced by the predominant burning of grasslands. Here we test the intermediate fire–productivity hypothesis for a period on Earth before the evolution of grasses, the Early Jurassic, and explore the fire regime of two contrasting climatic states: the cooling of the Late Pliensbachian Event (LPE) and the warming of the Sinemurian–Pliensbachian Boundary (SPB). Palaeo-fire records are reconstructed from fossil charcoal abundance, and changes in the hydrological cycle are tracked via clay mineralogy, which allows inference of changes in fuel moisture status. Large fluctuations in the fossil charcoal on an eccentricity timescale indicate two modes of fire regime at the time. Wildfires were moisture-limited in a high-productivity ecosystem during eccentricity minima for both the SPB and the LPE. During eccentricity maxima fires increased, and an optimum fire window was reached, in which periodically greater seasonality in rainfall and temperatures led to intermediate states of productivity and aridity. The LPE experienced more extreme climatic endmembers compared to the SPB, with the fire regime edging closer to “moisture limitation” during eccentricity minima, and experienced more pronounced seasonality during eccentricity maxima, explained by the overall cooler climate at the time. This study illustrates that the intermediate-productivity gradient holds up during two contrasting climatic states in the Jurassic.

A Study on Spatiotemporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Chinese National Park Network Attention

Due to advancements in information technology and growing eco-tourism demand, National Park Network Attention (NPNA) has emerged as a novel indicator of tourism appeal and ecological value recognition. Utilizing Baidu search index (accessed in 2023) data from 2013 to 2022, this study employs time series analysis, index analysis, and spatial statistics to measure and differentiate the spatial and temporal aspects of NPNA across 31 provinces, regions, and municipalities in mainland China, while systematically assessing the impact of various factors from both source and destination perspectives. Over the period of 2013 to 2022, NPNA has increased annually, peaking around holidays and during spring and autumn, demonstrating pronounced seasonality and precursor effects, while exhibiting volatility due to external events. Influenced by factors from both source and destination perspectives, the spatial distribution of NPNA displays a trend of being “high in the east and low in the west” and “high in the south and low in the north,” though regional disparities are diminishing. The population size in the source areas remains the dominant factor influencing NPNA, while the concept of national parks is not yet widely recognized. The destination’s tourism resource endowment, media publicity, accessibility, and level of informatization are significant influences. An effective integration of resources and marketing is essential for boosting NPNA. The findings provide valuable insights for optimizing the spatial layout of national parks, enhancing the tourism service system, innovating communication and promotional strategies, and improving national park governance effectiveness.

The structure and diversity of macroinvertebrate assemblages associated with the understudied pseudo-kelp Saccorhiza polyschides in the Western English Channel (UK)

We examined spatiotemporal variability in the structure of faunal assemblages associated with the warm-temperate pseudo-kelp Saccorhiza polyschides towards its range centre (Western English Channel, southwest UK), to better understand its role as a habitat-former in the northeast Atlantic. A total of 180 sporophytes and their associated fauna were sampled across three months, three sites, and two depths. Assemblage abundance and biomass varied markedly between three morpho-functional sporophyte components (i.e., holdfast, stipe, blade). We recorded rich and abundant macroinvertebrate assemblages, comprising nine phyla, 28 coarse taxonomic groups, and 57 species of molluscs, which consistently dominated assemblages. We observed pronounced seasonality in faunal assemblage structure, marked variability between sites and depths, and strong positive relationships between biogenic habitat availability and faunal abundance/biomass. S. polyschides sporophytes are short-lived and offer temporary, less-stable habitat compared with dominant perennial Laminaria species, so shifts in the relative abundances of habitat-formers will likely alter local biodiversity patterns.

Epidemiological and clinical aspects of HFRS in the territory of the Voronezh region

At this time, hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome remains one of the most common infectious diseases in the Russian Federation. An active natural focus of HFRS is the Voronezh region, where the natural reservoir of hantaviruses and the source of infection for people are wild rodents — bank vole, field mouse, and gray vole. The highest incidence rates of HFRS in the Voronezh region were recorded in 2019, significantly exceeding the rates of other years. The article presents data on the features of the epidemiology of HFRS and analyzes in detail the characteristic clinical manifestations of the disease. Important epidemiological aspects of hantavirus infection in the Voronezh region are the summer-autumn seasonality, the predominance in the structure of sick young men of working age living within the city. The pronounced summer-autumn seasonality of HFRS is due to contacts of patients with natural objects in both foci of infection. The clinical picture revealed a cyclical course of the disease, prolonged febrile-intoxication syndrome, enlarged liver and spleen, hemorrhagic syndrome, signs of renal pathology, thrombocytopenia. At the initial stage of the disease, typical manifestations of infection — symptoms of kidney damage, hemorrhagic manifestations, ophthalmological complaints, dry mouth and thirst — are rare or not clearly expressed. The studied features of the epidemiological aspects and clinical manifestations of HFRS in the Voronezh region are of great practical importance for differential diagnosis and early diagnosis at the prehospital stage for the purpose of timely hospitalization of the patient.

Empirical Approach to Modelling and Forecasting Inflation using ARIMA Model: Evidence from Tanzania

This study investigates the dynamics of the inflation rate (INFL) in Tanzania spanning from 1990 to 2021 using advanced time series analysis techniques. The dataset sourced from the World Bank online database serves as the basis for analytical exploration. Initially, the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model is applied to understand underlying patterns in the INFL data. Transitioning to Seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) modeling encounters challenges due to the absence of pronounced seasonality or clear trends. Unit root tests, including the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests, assess the stationarity of the data. Following the identification of non-stationarity, differencing is employed to achieve stationarity. Estimation of ARIMA models (ARIMA (1,1,1) and ARIMA (2,1,1)) is conducted, with diagnostic checks confirming the suitability of the ARIMA (1,1,1) model. The study contributes to the understanding of inflation dynamics and facilitates evidence-based economic policymaking in Tanzania.

The Variation in Atmospheric Turbidity over a Tropical Site in Nigeria and Its Relation to Climate Drivers

Atmospheric turbidity exhibits substantial spatial–temporal variability due to factors such as aerosol emissions, seasonal changes, meteorology, and air mass transport. Investigating atmospheric turbidity is crucial for climatology, meteorology, and atmospheric pollution. This study investigates the variation in atmospheric turbidity over a tropical location in Nigeria, utilizing the Ångström exponent (α), the turbidity coefficient (β), the Linke turbidity factor (TL), the Ångström turbidity coefficient (βEST), the Unsworth–Monteith turbidity coefficient (KAUM), and the Schüepp turbidity coefficient (SCH). These parameters were estimated from a six-month uninterrupted aerosol optical depth dataset (January–June 2016) and a one-year dataset (January–December 2016) of solar radiation and meteorological data. An inverse correlation (R = −0.77) was obtained between α and β, which indicates different turbidity regimes based on particle size. TL and βEST exhibit pronounced seasonality, with higher turbidity during the dry season (TL = 9.62 and βEST = 0.60) compared to the rainy season (TL = 0.48 and βEST = 0.20) from May to October. Backward trajectories and wind patterns reveal that high-turbidity months align with north-easterly air flows from the Sahara Desert, transporting dust aerosols, while low-turbidity months coincide with humid maritime air masses originating from the Gulf of Guinea. Meteorological drivers like relative humidity and water vapor pressure are linked to turbidity levels, with an inverse exponential relationship observed between normalized turbidity coefficients and normalized water vapor pressure. This analysis provides insights into how air mass origin, wind patterns, and local climate factors impact atmospheric haze, particle characteristics, and solar attenuation variability in a tropical location across seasons. The findings can contribute to environmental studies and assist in modelling interactions between climate, weather, and atmospheric optical properties in the region.