Revenue Projections Research Articles

International Tourism Revenue Projections for Guilin in the Context of COVID-19

This paper collects relevant international tourism revenue data for Guilin from 2004 to 2020 for analysis and modelling using three algorithms, namely multiple linear regression model, support vector machine and random forest, to explore the variables affecting international tourism revenue in Guilin and to make model predictions for international tourism revenue from 2019 to 2020. The empirical evidence shows that the multiple linear regression model predicts the best results, especially the accurate prediction of the sharp decline in international tourism revenue when the new crown pneumonia epidemic spreads in 2020 , which can provide some scientific basis tourism development planning of Guilin city in the future.

Macroeconomic Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in Nigeria

<p>The Nigerian economy depends on over 90% oil exports revenue to drive government expenditure aimed at supporting growth-enhancing fiscal investments. Oil price has therefore become the standard benchmark for estimating aggregate annual revenue projections for all fiscal budgets and overall prospects of budgetary success. Over the years, growth in oil exports revenue and associated growth in government expenditure supported by macroeconomic policy reforms have failed to diversify the economy away from its mono-cultural revenue base. This paper investigated the nexus between oil price shocks, government expenditure and economic growth in Nigeria for the period 1986 to 2018, an era marked by bold market reforms. Generalized Methods of Moments (GMM) and Vector Error Correction (VECM) techniques are used for the empirical examination of the relationship between the study variables. The results indicate a direct and significant relationship between oil price and both government expenditure and economic growth. The exchange rate and exports channels are the intermediaries that transmit oil price shocks to the economy. Similarly, findings have confirmed evidence of the Dutch Disease in Nigeria. Given the ongoing decarbonization of global energy, the study provides recommendations for an urgent shift in growth policy focus away from dependence on oil revenue to bold reforms that will fast-track fiscal and exports revenue diversification and sustainability, anchored on private sector initiatives.</p>

On the Revenue Generation of the Internally Generated Funds across Twifo Hemang Lower Denkyira District Assembly

Balancing the budget is one of the most important concerns of financial policy. Improving the quality of revenue and expenditure projections has become essential for policymakers. However, The most crucial component in sustaining success in terms of revenue generation and other grounds is time. Keeping up with the speed of time is difficult. A time series model is one such method for dealing with time-based data. The time series model is an adequate model when there are serially correlated data. Autoregressive Moving Averages (ARMA) is the appropriate approach when the error(s) of the data has the same variance regardless of the value taken by the independent variable(s). For this reason, an internally generated fund data were collected from the Twifo Hemang Lower Denkyira District assembly from 2013 to 2019 which was subjected to descriptives and time series analysis. From the time series analysis, ARMA (1, 1) was selected as the best model using the AIC value and fit the observed monthly internally generated fund pattern. The study revealed among others that January 2020 will record the highest revenue generation of 21465.96 cedis over the two years forecast followed by March 2020, 19023.17 cedis and May 2021 of 18122.05 cedis. The study also recommended among others that the authorities of Twifo Hemang Lower Denkyira District assembly should embark on educating the citizens on the need to pay their taxes for developmental progress of their assembly.

Make financial reports accessible for better board engagement

Nonprofit executive directors and staff are usually well versed in the kinds of financial data—such as account balances, revenue projections, expense estimates, budget outlines and other critical info—that help them make decisions and develop organizational strategy. But experts warn that their boards might not be so comfortable with numbers, and may be failing to fully understand what the information means, leading to uninformed decision‐making that could have a deleterious impact on the organization's mission.

Present financial data in accessible ways to counter possible math anxiety on boards

One of a nonprofit board member's core duties is to ensure the organizations finances are in order. And to that end, the executive director and other staff prepare and present key financial data like account balances, revenue projections, expense estimates, budget outlines and other critical info for boards to assess. However, due to the manner in which all of that data are presented, the bulk of the board may be failing to fully understand what the information means, experts say, leading to uninformed decision‐making that could have a deleterious impact on the organization's mission,

Price and revenue projections under alternative policy shocks due to the coronavirus: Canadian lobster and snow crab

The coronavirus will have serious consequences for the fishing industry. The purpose here is to simulate price and revenue outcomes for Canadian lobster and snow crab markets under alternative policy shocks due to the coronavirus. Predictions are based on three policy scenarios representing upper and lower bounds on the range of possible landings and economic outcomes for the period 2019–2021. Based on past research, demand equations for both the lobster and snow crab markets are used to empirically simulate price projections. The results for snow crab are startling with predicted serious declines in price and generated revenue, particularly for Québec and Newfoundland and Labrador (NL). Compared to 2018, projections suggest a decline in average revenue for 2021 of − 18% Gulf, − 32% Maritimes, − 53% Québec, and − 57% NL. The outcome for lobster is not as bleak, projections showing a 21% decline in revenue for 2020 but with recovery in 2021.

Subway Ridership: Accounting for Regional Variation across Land-Use and Socioeconomic Settings

AbstractAccurate forecasts of public transportation ridership are key components to a transit agency’s management program. These forecasts are used to develop revenue projections that are then impu...

Acceptance Analysis of PDAM Sleman’s Water Tariff Based on Revenue and Wilingness to Pay Projection

The Regional Water Company (PDAM) of Sleman provides clean water to the community and charges a tariff for each cubic meter of water sold to customers. Minister of Home Affairs Regulation No. 71 of 2016 states that PDAM tariffs requiring a review every four years. Most recently tariffs set by PDAM Sleman was in 2016 therefore it requires a recalculation. Besides that, it is necessary to analyze the tariff acceptance from the service provider and service recipient’s point of view. Calculation tariff method utilized a formula based on the Minister of Home Affairs Regulation No. 71 of 2016. Acceptance analysis conducted by calculating the projection of water sales revenue, the profit to earning assets ratio, and the willingness to pay (WTP) projection of customers. Revenue projections were obtained by multiplying tariffs with the water sold volume. The WTP projection is carried out using the inflation method based on the WTP of PDAM Sleman customers from the 2007’s research. PDAM Sleman tariffs based on calculations resulted low tariffs of IDR3727.48, basic tariffs of IDR4659.36, and full rate of IDR9460.17. Based on the WTP analysis, the tariffs are feasible from the the service recipient’s point of view, which are the PDAM customers, because it is still affordable by customers for their average water consumption. Nevertheless, from the point of view of the service provider, which is PDAM Sleman, the tariffs are not feasible because the profit ratio of 0.31% is still much lower than the fairness profit ratio as 10% amount. Therefore, it is necessary to make tariff adjustments to increase profits. The adjustment strategies such as by determined tariffs only based on consumption blocks without breaking down based on customer group categories and adjusting the range of second and third consumption blocks.

Should SPAC Forecasts be Sacked?

In 1995 Congress passed the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act (PSLRA), which grants public companies a safe harbor from liability for forward-looking statements (FLS). Because investors cannot reasonably assess the legitimacy of forward-looking information for initial public offerings (IPOs), these companies are excluded from the act’s provision. However, companies that go public through a special acquisition company (SPAC) are defined as merger targets of an already-public firm, and as such, their FLS are protected under the PSLRA safe harbor. In this paper, we offer the first large-scale study on revenue forecasts disclosed in investor presentations given by SPAC targets. We document a positive association between the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in projected revenue and both market returns and abnormal retail trading during the five-day event window around the investor presentation. We also show that higher revenue growth projections are more likely to be optimistically biased and that firms with higher projections tend to underperform comparable firms during the two-year span following the SPAC merger. Overall, our results attest to the recent concerns expressed by both the SEC and the financial press, that SPAC firms’ aggressive revenue projections compel retail investors, who end up faring worse on their investment.

How Africa's prospective petroleum producers fell victim to the presource curse

This paper reviews resource sector developments in 12 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa that made their first (major) petroleum discoveries during the most recent commodity boom. The analysis, which goes back to 2001, looks at sector forecasts of international organizations, governments, and companies and compares them with the results that emerged. The paper finds all 12 countries experienced disappointment. A third of the countries did not make any commercially viable discoveries. Among those that potentially had commercial finds, the latest timelines from discovery to production are 83 percent longer on average than initially expected. In the six countries for which there are comparable data, revenue collected thus far or the most recent revenue projections for countries yet to reach production are 63 percent lower on average than the initial forecasts. The paper also documents the various policies adopted in response to the discoveries and—with the benefit of hindsight—finds that, in some cases, this over optimism contributed to the ‘presource curse’: suboptimal policymaking that did not align with the new realities.

Financial Feasibility Study for New Investment in New Digital Product of PT Telkom Indonesia (Case Study: SKP Project)

SKP is an integrated stock management system application. With SKP, PT Telkom Indonesia provides solutions to business owners in the form of connectivity and services. Proper planning of business strategy is needed based on a proper feasibility study, so SKP project can generate economic benefits for PT Telkom Indonesia and all the stakeholders. SKP has not calculated the financial projections for it to proceed to the market and meet PT Telkom Indonesia regulation. A financial feasibility study would measure the revenue projection, and cost structure such as cash flow, balance sheet, and income statement projection. At the end of this model, there will be a conclusion of the feasibility of the project using internal rate of return (IRR), net present value (NPV), and payback period (PP) as parameters. If the project is feasible, there will be a sensitivity risk analysis to find out the most sensitive variable. According to feasibility test result, it is concluded that the SKP project can benefit PT Telkom Indonesia. This can be seen from the FCFF calculation which results in a positive NPV with a value of Rp 5.229.648.128, and IRR of 67,26% which is greater than the project WACC of 17,94%. From the payback period requirements set by PT Telkom Indonesia, the project is estimated to have a PP of 2,02 years. The result of SKP's financial projections is also supported by Monte Carlo simulations which show the effect of changes to influential variables, with simulation results show a possible NPV> 0 of 87,53%.

Mobile Lung Screening: Should We All Get on the Bus?

Despite favorable recommendations, national lung screening adoption remains low (2% to 3%). Patients living in rural areas have additional challenges, including access to lung screening programs. We initiated a mobile lung screening program to serve the rural patients at risk. This is what we learned from this 12-month feasibility project. Utilizing a multidisciplinary approach, we began an 8-month design and build schedule. This was the first build of this type. The operational team included a radiology technician, nurse practitioner, driver with a commercial driver's license, and program developer. Specialized software was used for data mining. Downstream revenue projections werebased on previously published Medicare claims data. Generally accepted accounting principles were used. The prototype bus was delivered January 2018. During the 12-month feasibility period, we performed 548 low-dose lung screenings at 104 sites. Mean patient age was 62 years, mean pack-years of smoking was 41; 258 (47%) were male. Five lung cancers were found in addition to a type B thymoma. Financially, we exceeded the break-even analysis by 28%. The 5-year pro forma using 1 year of actual data and 4 additional years of projected data demonstrated a net present value of 1 million, internal rate of return of 34.6%, and profitability index of 2.2-all highly dependent on downstream revenue. Although challenges exist, a commercially viable bus and a financially sound mobile program can be developed. However, without a centralized approach for incidental findings, the downstream revenue may be at risk as well as the financial viability of the project.

Using distributed lag models to predict regional budget revenues

Subject. The article addresses projections of regional budget revenues, using distributed lag models. Objectives. The purpose is to review economic and statistical tools that are suitable for the analysis of relationship between the revenues of the regional budget system and regional macroeconomic predictors. Methods. The study draws on statistical, constructive, economic and mathematical methods of analysis. Results. In models with quantitative variables obtained under the Almon method, the significant predictors in the forecasting of regional budget revenues are determined mainly by the balanced financial result, the consumer price index, which characterizes inflation processes in the region, and the unemployment rate being the key indicator of the labor market. Models with quantitative variables obtained through the Koyck transformation are characterized by a wider range of predictors, the composition of which is determined by the peculiarities of economic situation in regions. The two-year forecast provides the average lag obtained during the evaluation of the models. The exception is the impact of unemployment rate, which is characterized as long-term. Conclusions. To generate forecasts of budget parameters, the results of both the Koyck method and the Almon method should be considered, though the former is more promising.

The external effect of a migrated star player on domestic sports league: an empirical analysis of three Asian leagues – Japan, Korea and Taiwan[1

PurposeThis study aims to examine the “external effect” of a migrated star player on their domestic sport industries. By exploring the new aspect of star power, this study provides important insight and critical implication to many relevant stakeholders in the professional sports league. Particularly, this is critical under the recent circumstance where the globalization of sports products becomes the central strategic issue of the world-class leagues.Design/methodology/approachIn this paper, the external effect of star players migrated from three Asian leagues (Japan, Korea and Taiwan) to Major League Baseball in the USA, the world-class baseball league, on their domestic league attendance demand was empirically investigated. For the analysis, comprehensive historical data from various reliable sources from each league were collected.FindingsThe findings of the paper strongly support the external effect of migrated stars significantly existing in all the three leagues. The effect is consistent across various measurements of migrated star players. More interestingly, the effect was found to be mixed across different leagues; for example, migrated star players increases in domestic league attendance in Japan, while it decreases in Korea and Taiwan. This indicates that the external effect of migrated star players depends on the characteristics of the domestic leagues. In addition, it was found that the external effect was substantial enough to compare to the effect of major demand drivers such as team winning, competitive balance and star power. For managerial implications, this study also provides revenue projections induced by the impact of migrated star players.Originality/valueThis study opens a new chapter related to star power topic and immediately calls for future studies regarding this external effect, particularly, theoretical and behavioral approaches.

DOES ECONOMIC GROWTH HAS AN IMPACT ON EAST JAVA REGIONAL REVENUE?

The implementation of regional autonomy resulted in each region to be able to manage their finances independently. This is one way the central government toremove the dependency of local governments to the central government. Thusrequiring local governments to explore the sources of local revenue in order tofinance regional development. In an effort to increase local revenues derived from the PAD is determined by economic factors or economic potential which has the prospect to be developed for each area. The result indicates the role of the revenue (PAD) in the Regional Budget (APBD) of East Java Province indicates that there is still very small, with an average of 15.47% of the total revenue budget. This means that the level of dependence of local governments on the central government is still high. Although the results of regional revenue projections indicate that component has been great in their contribution of the reception area, which amounted to 69.52%. Using the ordinary least squre method, the result of regression correlation are insignificant. This means that the regional gross domestic product does not have an effect on revenue of East Java Province.

Investigating the inefficiency of the CBO’s budgetary projections

This paper evaluates the efficiency of budgetary projections issued by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) from 1984 to 2016 and investigates the cause of their inefficiency. The efficiency of both its budgetary and macroeconomic projections is rejected in many cases, especially for revenue projections. A comparison of forecast evaluations suggests that the inefficiency of revenue projections is likely due to the inefficiency of the underlying macroeconomic projections. By adjusting budgetary projections by the CBO in real time using macroeconomic forecasts by the Survey of Professional Forecasters, the accuracy of the former projections can be significantly improved in some cases, by up to 26% in terms of the root-mean-square prediction error.

Wealth Tax Design: Lessons from Estate Tax Avoidance

Presidential candidates Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders have both proposed ambitious new annual wealth taxes based on academic work by Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman. They project these proposals to raise trillions of dollars over the next ten years. Some critics challenge the Saez-Zucman approach to measuring the aggregate wealth of those subject to a wealth tax. Other critics including Larry Summers and Natasha Sarin have used data from estate tax returns and the relatively small amount of revenue the estate tax currently raises to question the revenue projections of these proposals. This comparison can be useful only if one thinks carefully about specific estate tax strategies and how these strategies translate to an annual wealth tax. This article engages in that exercise. When one takes a closer look at estate tax avoidance and how it maps onto an annual wealth tax, a much more complex narrative emerges. That narrative has four major themes. First, there are some estate tax planning techniques (like valuation games and charitable contributions) which pose similar challenges to an annual wealth tax. These structures provide some support for critics like Summers and Sarin who argue that the annual wealth tax will struggle to raise the projected revenue. Second, other structures (such as grantor-retained annuity trusts ) work well to minimize estate taxes but are of limited use for structuring around an annual wealth tax. Projecting wealth tax revenue using estate tax revenue without considering the revenue consequences of these strategies will understate wealth tax revenue. Third, other techniques (including the use of lifetime estate/gift exemptions) highlight possible synergies between an estate and wealth tax. In many ways, a robust estate tax will make the wealth tax harder to avoid and vice-versa. The converse is also true: a poorly designed estate/gift tax will undermine an annual wealth tax. Adopting a wealth tax without strengthening the gift and estate makes little sense. Fourth, one of the major lessons of estate tax planning is that it is much easier to minimize estate taxes on future wealth than existing wealth. A myriad of techniques allow taxpayers to “freeze” the value of assets for estate tax purposes. Freezing techniques will also prove helpful in minimizing wealth taxes. It is possible that even a well-designed wealth tax will have a base that shrinks rather than grows over time.

Investigating the Inefficiency of the CBO's Budgetary Projections

In this paper, I evaluate the efficiency of the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO) budgetary projections from 1984 to 2016 and investigate the causes of the projections' inefficiency. The efficiencies of both the CBO's budgetary and macroeconomic projections are rejected in many cases, especially for revenue projections. The comparison of forecast evaluations suggests that the inefficiency of revenue projections is likely due to the inefficiency of the underlying macroeconomic projections. By adjusting the CBO's budgetary projections in real time using the Survey of Professional Forecasters' macroeconomic forecasts, I find that the accuracy of the projections can be significantly improved in some cases, with a magnitude up to 26% in root-mean-square prediction error.

Taxing crude oil: A financing alternative to mitigate climate change?

To date, global cooperation has not provided enough funds to counter climate change, as evidenced by the Green Climate Fund experience. Based on this fact, this document evaluates the revenue potential of an international tax on crude oil to finance programs to mitigate climate change. For this purpose, a dynamic, general equilibrium model for the world economy with two regions is proposed. One region is a net importer of oil, while the other is an exporter. In the model, oil exports are subject to a permanent per-barrel tax. Short- and long-run revenue projections are offered under alternative assumptions. Some exercises suggest that the resources generated from a $5 per-barrel tax on 25% of world oil exports would amount to $18.4 billion dollars in the initial year. To implement such policy at the international level, an “Oil and Climate Club” is proposed, where revenues from oil taxation would be allocated to funding environment-friendly programs. The paper includes a discussion on how to make the club's rules consistent with international trade laws.

Incorporating price elasticity in financial forecasting models: From theory to practice and implementation

The authors use a capital budgeting example to show students how to incorporate price elasticity into financial analysis as an application of what students learn in their microeconomics course. They present simple as well as more advanced price-quantity relationships, and using various “what-if” scenarios; the authors show how risk analysis can be used to improve revenue projections and valuation models. A project analysis example is employed to illustrate results for negative predictive value and IRR based on three models of price elasticities across a range of potential product pricing. Students are then encouraged to replicate and create similar models, helping them improve their vital Excel and financial modeling skills.