Projections Of Future Sea Level Rise Research Articles

Advances in monitoring glaciological processes in Kalallit Nunaat (Greenland) over the past decades

Greenland’s glaciers have been retreating, thinning and accelerating since the mid-1990s, with the mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) now being the largest contributor to global sea level rise. Monitoring changes in glacier dynamics using in-situ or remote sensing methods has been and remains therefore crucial to improve our understanding of glaciological processes and the response of glaciers to changes in climate. Over the past two decades, significant advances in technology have provided improvements in the way we observe glacier behavior and have helped to reduce uncertainties in future projections. This review focuses on advances in in-situ monitoring of glaciological processes, but also discusses novel methods in satellite remote sensing. We further highlight gaps in observing, measuring and monitoring glaciers in Greenland, which should be addressed in order to improve our understanding of glacier dynamics and to reduce in uncertainties in future sea level rise projections. In addition, we review coordination and inclusivity of science conducted in Greenland and provide suggestion that could foster increased collaboration and co-production.

Bleaching threatens positive carbonate budgets on Bahraini reefs

Bleaching events impact coral reef functionality and carbonate budget dynamics, which is reflected in reduced reef framework accretion, hindering reef ability to keep pace with sea-level rise projections. Reefs in the Arabian Gulf exist in harsh environmental conditions with seasonal temperatures ranging between 16 and 36 °C. Despite the high thermal thresholds (~ 35 °C) of corals in this region, extensive bleaching and high coral mortality have been reported regionally in 2017. We quantify reef carbonate budgets at a near shore and an offshore reef site in Bahrain pre-bleaching in May 2017 and post-bleaching in May 2018 to assess the impacts of the 2017 severe bleaching event on the budgetary state. Results indicate an overall decrease in hard coral cover from 14.2 ± 5.5 to 8.5 ± 1.4% and a decline in the net carbonate budget state from 3.6 ± 2.2 to 0.3 ± 0.3 kg CaCO3 m−2 year−1 at the shallow nearshore Fasht Al Adhm reef indicating a shift from a positive budgetary state to net neutral, while the deeper offshore Reef Bul Thamah has increased positively from 3.7 ± 1.2 to 4.2 ± 0.6 kg CaCO3 m−2 year−1. We attribute the decline in the nearshore reef to the bleaching event which took place between July and October 2017, resulting in high coral mortality rates and subsequent reduced framework carbonate production. Predicted warming trends present a threat to the structural integrity of shallow Bahraini reefs, compromising their ability to keep pace with future sea-level rise projections.

The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) v1.0: a platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change

Abstract. Future sea-level rise projections are characterized by both quantifiable uncertainty and unquantifiable structural uncertainty. Thorough scientific assessment of sea-level rise projections requires analysis of both dimensions of uncertainty. Probabilistic sea-level rise projections evaluate the quantifiable dimension of uncertainty; comparison of alternative probabilistic methods provides an indication of structural uncertainty. Here we describe the Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS), a modular platform for characterizing different probability distributions for the drivers of sea-level change and their consequences for global mean, regional, and extreme sea-level change. We demonstrate its application by generating seven alternative probability distributions under multiple emissions scenarios for both future global mean sea-level change and future relative and extreme sea-level change at New York City. These distributions, closely aligned with those presented in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report, emphasize the role of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets as drivers of structural uncertainty in sea-level change projections.

Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty

Abstract. The Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest source of uncertainty in future sea level rise projections, with a contribution to sea level by 2100 ranging from −5 to 43 cm of sea level equivalent under high carbon emission scenarios estimated by the recent Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). ISMIP6 highlighted the different behaviors of the East and West Antarctic ice sheets, as well as the possible role of increased surface mass balance in offsetting the dynamic ice loss in response to changing oceanic conditions in ice shelf cavities. However, the detailed contribution of individual glaciers, as well as the partitioning of uncertainty associated with this ensemble, have not yet been investigated. Here, we analyze the ISMIP6 results for high carbon emission scenarios, focusing on key glaciers around the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we quantify their projected dynamic mass loss, defined here as mass loss through increased ice discharge into the ocean in response to changing oceanic conditions. We highlight glaciers contributing the most to sea level rise, as well as their vulnerability to changes in oceanic conditions. We then investigate the different sources of uncertainty and their relative role in projections, for the entire continent and for key individual glaciers. We show that, in addition to Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers in West Antarctica, Totten and Moscow University glaciers in East Antarctica present comparable future dynamic mass loss and high sensitivity to ice shelf basal melt. The overall uncertainty in additional dynamic mass loss in response to changing oceanic conditions, compared to a scenario with constant oceanic conditions, is dominated by the choice of ice sheet model, accounting for 52 % of the total uncertainty of the Antarctic dynamic mass loss in 2100. Its relative role for the most dynamic glaciers varies between 14 % for MacAyeal and Whillans ice streams and 56 % for Pine Island Glacier at the end of the century. The uncertainty associated with the choice of climate model increases over time and reaches 13 % of the uncertainty by 2100 for the Antarctic Ice Sheet but varies between 4 % for Thwaites Glacier and 53 % for Whillans Ice Stream. The uncertainty associated with the ice–climate interaction, which captures different treatments of oceanic forcings such as the choice of melt parameterization, its calibration, and simulated ice shelf geometries, accounts for 22 % of the uncertainty at the ice sheet scale but reaches 36 % and 39 % for Institute Ice Stream and Thwaites Glacier, respectively, by 2100. Overall, this study helps inform future research by highlighting the sectors of the ice sheet most vulnerable to oceanic warming over the 21st century and by quantifying the main sources of uncertainty.

Future sea level rise exacerbates compound floods induced by rainstorm and storm tide during super typhoon events: A case study from Zhuhai, China

Compound floods are becoming a growing threat in coastal cities against a background of global sea level rise (SLR), and may cause increasing impacts on societal safety and economy. How to quantify the impact of SLR and compound effects among various flood causes on compound flood have become important challenges. We propose a modeling framework which integrates atmospheric, storm tide and urban flood (IASTUF) models to characterize the various physical processes related to compound flood. Future SLR projections under various shared socioeconomic and respective concentration pathway emission scenarios are considered. Hengqin Island (Zhuhai City, China) frequently experiences typhoon conditions combined with rainstorm and storm surge events. Its population has increased more than sixfold during the past decade, stimulating urgent demands for assessments of the potential risks associated with future compound floods in the context of potential SLR. A compound flood event in northern Hengqin Island, caused by the super typhoon Mangkhut in 2018, is selected as a case study to verify the proposed modeling framework. Results show that the IASTUF modeling framework can capture well the combined processes of typhoon, rainstorm, storm tide and inland flooding and demonstrates good performance in quantifying compound flood magnitudes. Compared to the current scenario, the node flooding volume (from the drainage system) and the maximum inundation area (with inundation depths >1 m) in 2050 are projected to increase by 20–26 % and 41–85 %, respectively, and these increases rise to 46–84 % and 23–71 times by 2100. The inundation volumes and water depths due to compound events are larger than the sum of those caused by the corresponding single-cause events, indicating that concurrent rainstorm and storm surge induce positive compound effects on flood magnitude. These findings can provide guidance for the management and mitigation of future compound flood hazards driven by super typhoon events.

GLAcier Feature Tracking testkit (GLAFT): a statistically and physically based framework for evaluating glacier velocity products derived from optical satellite image feature tracking

Abstract. Glacier velocity measurements are essential to understand ice flow mechanics, monitor natural hazards, and make accurate projections of future sea-level rise. Despite these important applications, the method most commonly used to derive glacier velocity maps, feature tracking, relies on empirical parameter choices that rarely account for glacier physics or uncertainty. Here we test two statistics- and physics-based metrics to evaluate velocity maps derived from optical satellite images of Kaskawulsh Glacier, Yukon, Canada, using a range of existing feature-tracking workflows. Based on inter-comparisons with ground truth data, velocity maps with metrics falling within our recommended ranges contain fewer erroneous measurements and more spatially correlated noise than velocity maps with metrics that deviate from those ranges. Thus, these metric ranges are suitable for refining feature-tracking workflows and evaluating the resulting velocity products. We have released an open-source software package for computing and visualizing these metrics, the GLAcier Feature Tracking testkit (GLAFT).

EFFECTS OF ESTUARY’S GEOMETRY AND BATHYMETRY ON EXTREME WATER LEVELS, STUDY CASE: MANUKAU HARBOUR, NEW ZEALAND

The present work aims to understand the potential effects of bathymetry and geometry on the total water level in Manukau Harbor in the present and future projections of sea-level rise. Our study site is in the southwest region of Auckland. The tide is mesotidal amplitude, and the estuary has a prismatic geometry, extensive tidal zone, and depths ranging from 30m (close to the estuary entrance) to 1m in the inner channels. We analyzed the observed total water level in 2 tide gauges. The first one, located outside the Harbor, is the Anawhata tide gauge — managed by the National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) —; the second, located in the inner estuary, is the Onehunga tide gauge, managed by the Auckland Council. Our methods can be divided into two sessions, the data and numerical analysis.

Ice-flow perturbation analysis: a method to estimate ice-sheet bed topography and conditions from surface datasets

Abstract One of the largest contributors to uncertainty in predictions of sea-level rise from ice-sheet models is a lack of knowledge about the bed topography beneath ice sheets. Bed topography maps are normally made by interpolating between linear radar surveys using methods that include kriging, mass conservation and flowline diffusion, all of which may miss influential mesoscale (2–30 km) bedforms. Previous works have explored an Ice-Flow Perturbation Analysis (IFPA) approach for estimating bed topography using the surface expression of these mesoscale bedforms. Using regions of Pine Island Glacier that have been intensively surveyed by ice-penetrating radar as test sites, and a refined IFPA methodology, we find that IFPA detects bedforms capable of influencing ice flow which are not represented in Bedmachine Antarctica and other interpolated bed products. We further explore the ability of IFPA to estimate relative bed slipperiness, finding higher slipperiness in the main trunk and tributaries. Alongside other methods which estimate ice thickness, bed topography maps from IFPA have the potential to constrain projections of future sea-level rise, especially where radar data are sparse.

Sea level rise implications on future inland migration of coastal wetlands

Coastal wetlands provide essential ecosystem functions, including coastal protection, improvement in water quality and carbon sequestration, which are threatened due to sea level rise (SLR) – a well-documented aspect of anthropogenic climate change. While there are numerous articles on SLR impacts on wetlands, data about the interactions between natural or human-made barriers and future SLR projections e.g. coastal squeeze are still sparse. If wetlands are bounded by natural formations or human-made structures, coastal wetlands could be permanently lost in a warming climate. Here we delineate impacts of SLR on wetland inland migration under a changing climate in six locations around the world with a particular focus on the consequences of human-made structures along coastlines in Europe, specifically along the largest continuous coastal wetland system in the world, the Wadden Sea. Various locations around the world (North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Asia and Australia) were chosen to analyze the impacts of regional SLR on wetland dynamics under climate change scenario. Our results show that places like Bangladesh, India and Myanmar have much larger areas at risk with nearly 10% of their coastal wetlands, whereas the wetlands in northern Australia seem to have a low area at risk to be lost with not even 1%. For the North Sea coast, wetlands where we had access to data from human-made infrastructure, we show that due to the built infrastructure, the wetland areas do not have the opportunity to evolve landward and hence, are expected to disappear permanently.

Impact of sea-level rise on cultural resources in the Delaware Bay region, USA

The Delaware Bay coastal zone includes at least 1580 cultural heritage resource sites; 700 of them could be damaged or lost by the year 2100. Future projections of sea-level rise (SLR) and storm surges identified cultural resources at high risk for inundation by the years 2030, 2050, 2080, and 2100. The projections are aimed to be high-end estimates preparing for long-term planning and “worse-case” scenarios. Sites located along the riverbanks are facing the highest threats from SLR. Coastal sites will be more frequently impacted by storms as surge levels increase with SLR. Storm-surge simulations predicted a non-linear increase in surge levels, reaching greater heights along the New Jersey side of the Bay compared to the Delaware side. Coastal sites without a protective dune system, or a dune less than 2 m in elevation, should be considered at immediate risk from coastal flooding. Shoreline erosion, and more frequent storms combined with SLR will increase vulnerability of coastal sites in the future. All endangered sites cannot be protected, therefore the results of the study should be of particular interest to historic preservation planners, cultural resources managers, Indigenous community leaders, and scholars to prioritize resources, develop the most effective preservation strategies, and plans for reconnaissance, survey, or data recovery from threatened sites and landscapes.

Poleward shift of Circumpolar Deep Water threatens the East Antarctic Ice Sheet

Future sea-level rise projections carry large uncertainties, mainly driven by the unknown response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to climate change. During the past four decades, the contribution of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to sea-level rise has increased. However, unlike for West Antarctica, the causes of East Antarctic ice-mass loss are largely unexplored. Here, using oceanographic observations off East Antarctica (80–160° E) we show that mid-depth Circumpolar Deep Water has warmed by 0.8–2.0 °C along the continental slope between 1930–1990 and 2010–2018. Our results indicate that this warming may be implicated in East Antarctic ice-mass loss and coastal water-mass reorganization. Further, it is associated with an interdecadal, summer-focused poleward shift of the westerlies over the Southern Ocean. Since this shift is predicted to persist into the twenty-first century, the oceanic heat supply to East Antarctica may continue to intensify, threatening the ice sheet’s future stability.

Benchmarking the vertically integrated ice-sheet model IMAU-ICE (version 2.0)

Abstract. Ice-dynamical processes constitute a large uncertainty in future projections of sea-level rise caused by anthropogenic climate change. Improving our understanding of these processes requires ice-sheet models that perform well at simulating both past and future ice-sheet evolution. Here, we present version 2.0 of the ice-sheet model IMAU-ICE, which uses the depth-integrated viscosity approximation (DIVA) to solve the stress balance. We evaluate its performance in a range of benchmark experiments, including simple analytical solutions and both schematic and realistic model intercomparison exercises. IMAU-ICE has adopted recent developments in the numerical treatment of englacial stress and sub-shelf melt near the grounding line, which result in good performance in experiments concerning grounding-line migration (MISMIP, MISMIP+) and buttressing (ABUMIP). This makes it a model that is robust, versatile, and user-friendly, which will provide a firm basis for (palaeo-)glaciological research in the coming years.

Future sea-level rise projections for tide gauge locations in South Asia

Local projections of future sea-level change are important for understanding climate change risks and informing coastal management decisions. Reliable and relevant coastal risk information is especially important in South Asia, where large populations live in low-lying areas and are at risk from coastal inundation. We present a new set of local sea-level projections for selected tide gauge locations in South Asia. The projections are used to explore the drivers of spatial variations in sea-level change for South Asia over the 21st century under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Global sea-level rise for 2081–2100 is projected to be 0.39 m (0.26–0.58 m) and 0.65 m (0.47 m–0.93m) for RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 respectively. Local sea-level rise projections for the same period vary spatially over the South Asia region, with local sea-level rise in excess of projected global sea-level rise in the equatorial Indian Ocean but less than projected global sea-level rise for the northern Arabian Sea and northern Bay of Bengal. Local sea-level rise for 2081–2100 is projected to be 0.44 m (0.29–0.67 m) and 0.72 m (0.51–1.06 m) at Gan II (Maldives) under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 respectively, whereas for Diamond Harbour (West Bengal) the corresponding changes are 0.32 m (0.19–0.51 m) and 0.57 m (0.39–0.85m). We find that the sterodynamic contribution is generally the leading driver of change at any single location, with future groundwater extraction over the sub-continent landmass the main driver of spatial variations in sea-level across the region. The new localised projections quantify and enhance understanding of future sea-level rise in South Asia, with the potential to feed into decisions for coastal planning by local communities, government, and industry.

Sea Level Rise Drivers and Projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under the Paris Climate Targets: Global and around the Korea Peninsula

Estimating future sea level rise (SLR) projections is important for assessing coastal risks and planning of climate-resilient infrastructure. Therefore, in this study, we estimated the future projections of SLR from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models for three climate targets (1.5 °C (T15), 2.0 °C (T20), and 3.0 °C (T30)) described by the Paris Agreement. The global SLR projections are 60, 140, and 320 mm for T15, T20, and T30, respectively, relative to the present-day levels. Similarly, around the Korean Peninsula, SLR projections become more intense with continuous global warming (20 mm (T15), 110 mm (T20), and 270 mm (T30)). Ocean variables show a slow response to climate change. Therefore, we developed the Emergence of Climate Change (EoC) index for determining the time when the variable is not following the present climate trend. The EoC of SLR appears after the EoC of sea-ice melting near the time of T15 warming. Moreover, the EoC of thermal expansion appears around the 2040s, which is similar to the time of the maximum of the T15 warming period and the median of the T20 warming period. Overall, our analysis suggests that the T15 warming may act as a trigger and SLR will accelerate after the T15 warming.

Establishing sustainable sediment budgets is critical for climate-resilient mega-deltas

Many of the world’s major river deltas face a sustainability crisis, as they come under threat of increases in salinity and the extent of tidal zones forced by combinations of sea-level rise, changes in river discharge and channel geometry. The relative contribution of these factors to future increases in tidal extent remains unconstrained, with most prior work emphasising the role of climate-driven sea-level rise. Here we use new field data from the Mekong delta to measure variations of river discharge and changes of channel geometry, and project them into the future. We combine these with projections of future sea-level rise into a 2D hydrodynamic numerical model and quantify the influence of the different driving factors on future tidal extension into the delta. We show that within the next two decades, tidal extension into the Mekong delta will increase by up to 56 km due to channel deepening (92%), dominantly driven by anthropogenic sediment starvation. Furthermore, even under strong mitigation scenarios, sediment starvation still drives a long-term commitment to future tidal extension. Specifically, by 2098 eustatically rising sea-levels are predicted to contribute only modestly to the projected extension. These findings demonstrate the urgent need for policy makers to adopt evidence-based measures to reverse negative sediment budgets that drive tidal extension into sediment starved deltas.

The Utrecht Finite Volume Ice-Sheet Model: UFEMISM (version 1.0)

Abstract. Improving our confidence in future projections of sea-level rise requires models that can simulate ice-sheet evolution both in the future and in the geological past. A physically accurate treatment of large changes in ice-sheet geometry requires a proper treatment of processes near the margin, like grounding line dynamics, which in turn requires a high spatial resolution in that specific region, so that small-scale topographical features are resolved. This leads to a demand for computationally efficient models, where such a high resolution can be feasibly applied in simulations of 105–107 years in duration. Here, we present and evaluate a new ice-sheet model that solves the hybrid SIA–SSA approximation of the stress balance, including a heuristic rule for the grounding-line flux. This is done on a dynamic adaptive mesh which is adapted to the modelled ice-sheet geometry during a simulation. Mesh resolution can be configured to be fine only at specified areas, such as the calving front or the grounding line, as well as specified point locations such as ice-core drill sites. This strongly reduces the number of grid points where the equations need to be solved, increasing the computational efficiency. A high resolution allows the model to resolve small geometrical features, such as outlet glaciers and sub-shelf pinning points, which can significantly affect large-scale ice-sheet dynamics. We show that the model reproduces the analytical solutions or model intercomparison benchmarks for a number of schematic ice-sheet configurations, indicating that the numerical approach is valid. Because of the unstructured triangular mesh, the number of vertices increases less rapidly with resolution than in a square-grid model, greatly reducing the required computation time for high resolutions. A simulation of all four continental ice sheets during an entire 120 kyr glacial cycle, with a 4 km resolution near the grounding line, is expected to take 100–200 wall clock hours on a 16-core system (1600–3200 core hours), implying that this model can be feasibly used for high-resolution palaeo-ice-sheet simulations.

The tipping points and early warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica

Abstract. Mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet is the main source of uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise, with important implications for coastal regions worldwide. Central to ongoing and future changes is the marine ice sheet instability: once a critical threshold, or tipping point, is crossed, ice internal dynamics can drive a self-sustaining retreat committing a glacier to irreversible, rapid and substantial ice loss. This process might have already been triggered in the Amundsen Sea region, where Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers dominate the current mass loss from Antarctica, but modelling and observational techniques have not been able to establish this rigorously, leading to divergent views on the future mass loss of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Here, we aim at closing this knowledge gap by conducting a systematic investigation of the stability regime of Pine Island Glacier. To this end we show that early warning indicators in model simulations robustly detect the onset of the marine ice sheet instability. We are thereby able to identify three distinct tipping points in response to increases in ocean-induced melt. The third and final event, triggered by an ocean warming of approximately 1.2 ∘C from the steady-state model configuration, leads to a retreat of the entire glacier that could initiate a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Breaking the Ice: Identifying Hydraulically Forced Crevassing

AbstractHydraulically forced crevassing is thought to reduce the stability of ice shelves and ice sheets, affecting structural integrity and providing pathways for surface meltwater to the bed. It can cause ice shelves to collapse and ice sheets to accelerate into the ocean. However, direct observations of the hydraulically forced crevassing process remain elusive. Here we report a novel method and observations that use icequakes to directly observe crevassing and determine the role of hydrofracture. Crevasse icequake depths from seismic observations are compared to a theoretically derived maximum dry crevasse depth. We observe icequakes below this depth, suggesting hydrofracture. Furthermore, icequake source mechanisms provide insight into the fracture process, with predominantly opening cracks observed, which have opening volumes of hundredths of a cubic meter. Our method and findings provide a framework for studying a critical process that is key for the stability of ice shelves and ice sheets and, therefore, future sea level rise projections.

Coastal Airports and Rising Sea Levels

Griggs, G., 2020. Coastal airports and rising sea levels. Journal of Coastal Research, 36(5), 1079–1092. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208.Most of the world's major cities are located along coastlines, and their large international airports are typically built either very close to sea level or on filled shallow coastal waters. These large facilities handle thousands of flights and millions of passengers annually, and in addition to being critical infrastructure, they are huge economic engines. Being very close to sea level, however, many of these airports are already exposed to extreme flood events (hurricanes, typhoons, large storms, and high tides) and in the future will face increasing risks with global sea-level rise. LaGuardia, John F. Kennedy (JFK), and Newark all suffered some flood damage during Superstorm Sandy in 2012. San Francisco and Oakland airports have already developed plans to build walls to protect them from 2 to 3 ft (0.6 to 0.9 m) of additional sea-level rise. In addition to these airports, the Federal Aviation Administration has designated the airports at Philadelphia, Washington National, Miami, Tampa, Ft. Lauderdale, Louis Armstrong New Orleans, and Honolulu as at-risk from future storm surge and high water from extreme events. A rising ocean is inevitable and will be additive over time with extreme events. The existing elevations of individual airports combined with projections of future sea-level rise can provide important guidance on when these facilities are likely to be exposed to tidal flooding and, therefore, when airport management should begin to plan to respond or adapt to the future threats.

Story mapping and sea level rise

While interactive maps are important tools for risk communication, most maps omit the lived experiences and personal stories of the community members who are most at risk. We describe a project to develop an interactive tool that juxtaposes coastal residents' videorecorded stories about sea level rise and coastal flooding with an interactive map that shows future sea level rise projections. We outline project development including digital platform selection, project design, participant recruitment, and narrative framing, and tie our design decisions to rhetorical and ethical considerations of interest for others developing interactive tools with community participation.