Climate Change Projections Research Articles

Climate variability and worldwide migration: Current evidence and future projections

Abstract The literature linking climatic drivers and migration is growing, but there is still limited evidence and substantial uncertainty regarding future bilateral flows driven by climate stress on a global scale. The aim of this paper is to fill this gap by projecting changes in the flows of international migrants from medium-term population and climate change projections. We employ a bilateral gravity equation for emigration rates controlling for decadal weather averages of temperature, precipitation, droughts, and extreme precipitation in the origin countries. We use the parameter estimates of the gravity equation to estimate global, regional, and country-by-country emigration flows for several combinations of socio-economic development and climate change. Results indicate that global emigration flows are projected to increase to around 110 million in 2060 for SSP1 and RCP 4.5 and SSP5 and RCP 4.5; to 135 million for SSP5 and RCP 8.5; to 163 million for SSP3 and RCP 4.5. We report that changes in emigration flows are largely due to population growth in the origin countries.

Sex ratios of olive ridley sea turtles in the North Pacific high seas: implications for climate change research

Size-class distributions and sex ratio data provide critical information to assess the demography and reproductive potential of animal populations, such as sea turtles. Sea turtle sex is determined by incubation temperature, whereby warmer temperatures during a certain period of embryonic development produce more female hatchlings. Whereas hatchling sex ratios have been well-studied, sex ratios of sea turtle foraging aggregations are less known for most populations. Here we report on sex ratios of immature and mature olive ridley sea turtles Lepidochelys olivacea in the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) and Central North Pacific (CNP) based on blood plasma hormone analysis, refined with Bayesian modeling, or gonad examination. Our findings established that (1) the commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay used in the present study was appropriate to analyze testosterone concentration in olive ridley blood plasma to determine foraging ground sex ratios (via a Bayesian model); (2) size-at-maturity is generally larger in males than females in the ETP; (3) the overall sex ratio among all turtles was 1.2F:1.0M; and (4) the sex ratio of smaller-sized immature turtles from both study regions was female-biased (ETP, 1.6F:1.0M and CNP, 2.1F:1.0M). These are the first sex ratio estimates for olive ridleys foraging in the high seas of the North Pacific Ocean. The data can inform population models for species conservation, particularly those that contribute to the development of conservation plans that consider climate change projections.

Evaluating the continued significance of dam-induced vigorous downstream channel erosion in the context of projected climate change: a case study from Peninsular India

ABSTRACT Although erosion has naturally been driven by rainfall patterns, human activities have increasingly influenced erosion rates in recent times. However, as climate change alters precipitation, future erosion control may once again depend primarily on climate. The primary goal of this investigation was to ascertain whether the issue of escalated erosion, typically linked to downstream dam effects, could diminish in significance due to projected climatic shifts later in this century. An erosion potential index (Ep), formulated as the ratio of the mass of sediment influx from upstream to the frequency of the sediment-carrying flow events, was computed on a tributary of the Godavari River, located downstream of a dam. Using the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), virtual experiments were conducted to distinguish the impacts of the dam from projected climate changes on river geomorphology. Two control scenarios were created using the current climate data and simulated regulated and unregulated states of the basin. Employing climate projections and various mitigation scenarios (SSPs) for the 2060s and 2090s, this study estimated Ep values exclusively under future climatic conditions in an unregulated state of the basin. Results indicate that, in the unregulated state without the existence of the upstream dam, future climate impacts on erosion outweigh the current effects of the dam, underscoring the growing influence of climate on geomorphology. It suggests that existing structural interventions may lose their geomorphic significance in the face of future climate conditions.

A Novel Input Schematization Method for Coastal Flooding Early Warning Systems Incorporating Climate Change Impacts

Coastal flooding poses a significant threat to coastal communities, adversely affecting both safety and economic stability. This threat is exacerbated by factors such as sea level rise, rapid urbanization, and inadequate coastal infrastructure, as noted in recent climate change reports. Early warning systems (EWSs) have proven to be effective tools in coastal planning and management, offering a high cost-to-benefit ratio. Recent advancements have integrated operational numerical models with machine learning techniques to develop near-real-time EWSs, leveraging data obtained from reputable databases that provide reliable hourly sea-state and sea level data. Despite these advancements, a stepwise methodology for selecting representative events, akin to wave input reduction methods used in morphological modeling, remains undeveloped. Moreover, existing methodologies often overlook the significance of compound extreme events and their potential increased occurrence under climate change projections. This research addresses these gaps by introducing a novel input schematization method that combines efficient hydrodynamic modeling with clustering algorithms. The proposed methodοlogy, implemented in the coastal area of Pyrgos, Greece, aims to select an optimal number of representative sea-state and water level combinations to develop accurate EWSs for coastal flooding risk prediction. A key innovation of this methodology is the incorporation of weights in the clustering algorithm to ensure adequate representation of extreme compound events, also taking into account projections for future climate scenarios. This approach aims to enhance the accuracy and reliability of coastal flooding EWSs, ultimately improving the resilience of coastal communities against imminent flooding threats.

Shifts in the habitat suitability for large hammerhead sharks under climate change

One of the chief consequences of climate change is the worldwide redistribution of species in the pursuit of physiologically and ecologically favourable conditions. As part of one of the most threatened groups of vertebrates, assessing how climate change may affect the distribution patterns of key shark species is essential for their long-term conservation and management. The present study aims to assess how climate change projections (based on the representative concentration pathways 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) for the middle and end of the century may affect the global patterns of habitat suitability (HS) for large hammerhead sharks – a unique and particularly threatened group of elasmobranchs. Here, a decline in the global average HS is projected for both Sphyrna lewini and Sphyrna zygaena, with the scale of HS decline generally increasing with time and RCP severity, while a global increase in HS is generally projected for Sphyrna mokarran, albeit reduced over the long-term and overturned under long-term RCP8.5. Meanwhile, poleward shifts are projected for all three species, with considerable tropical declines for both S. lewini and S. zygaena. Additionally, regional shifts in suitability have the potential to affect population connectivity, the access to key habitats, and levels of exposure to other anthropogenic pressures, along with the effectiveness of conservation and management efforts. Taken together, these results showcase the importance of climate change for species’ extinction risk assessments and the urgency of the consideration of climate change within the design and implementation of conservation measures.

Of goats and heat, the differential impact of summer temperature on habitat selection and activity patterns in mountain goats of different ecotypes.

Climate change disproportionately affects northern and alpine environments, with faster rates of warming than the global average. Because alpine and northern species are particularly well adapted to cool temperatures, most species must modify their behavior when temperatures exceed a critical threshold. Evaluating how temperature increases affect species inhabiting northern and alpine environments is therefore essential to understand the effects of projected climate change on these ecosystems. We analyzed the influence of temperature on the activity patterns and habitat selection of four populations of a cold-adapted, mountain specialist, the mountain goat (Oreamnos americanus). We collected GPS location and activity sensor data during 2010-2019 from 223 mountain goats from two distinct ecotypes: coastal and continental. Using a resource selection modeling approach, we determined that mountain goats of both ecotypes decreased selection for alpine meadows when temperatures increased. Reduced selection for open, forage rich habitat was associated with increased selection for habitat dominated by snow/ice patches in coastal areas, and by forests in continental sites. Mountain goats in continental environments selected higher elevation habitats only when temperature increased, whereas goats in coastal environments selected higher elevation habitat at all temperatures. Mountain goats of both ecotypes reduced the proportion of time spent active when temperatures increased during the middle of the day. Our study reveals that mountain goats use diverse tactics to mitigate thermal stress, and that these tactics vary between ecotypes, highlighting the need for considering adaptation to specific environments within a species when assessing climate change impacts on populations.

Projecting Untruncated Climate Change Effects on Species' Climate Suitability: Insights From an Alpine Country.

Climate projections for continental Europe indicate drier summers, increased annual precipitation, and less snowy winters, which are expected to cause shifts in species' distributions. Yet, most regions/countries currently lack comprehensive climate-driven biodiversity projections across taxonomic groups, challenging effective conservation efforts. To address this gap, our study evaluated the potential effects of climate change on the biodiversity of an alpine country of Europe, Switzerland. We used a state-of-the art species distribution modeling approach and species occurrence data that covered the climatic conditions encountered across the full species' ranges to help limiting niche truncation. We quantified the relationship between baseline climate and the spatial distribution of 7291 species from 12 main taxonomic groups and projected future climate suitability for three 30-year periods and two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5). Our results indicated important effects of projected climate changes on species' climate suitability, with responses varying by the taxonomic and conservation status group. The percentage of species facing major changes in climate suitability was higher under RCP8.5 (68%) compared to RCP4.5 (66%). By the end of the century, decreases in climate suitability were projected for 3000 species under RCP8.5 and 1758 species under RCP4.5. The most affected groups under RCP8.5 were molluscs, algae, and amphibians, while it was molluscs, birds, and vascular plants under RCP4.5. Spatially, by 2070-2099, we projected an overall decrease in climate suitability for 39% of the cells in the study area under RCP8.5 and 10% under RCP4.5, while projecting an increase for 50% of the cells under RCP8.5 and 73% under RCP4.5. The most consistent geographical shifts were upward, southward, and eastward. We found that the coverage of high climate suitability cells by protected areas was expected to increase. Our models and maps provide guidance for spatial conservation planning by pointing out future climate-suitable areas for biodiversity.

Bias correction of CORDEX-Africa regional climate model simulations for climate change projections in northeastern Lake Chad: Comparative analysis of three bias correction methods

Bias correction of CORDEX-Africa regional climate model simulations for climate change projections in northeastern Lake Chad: Comparative analysis of three bias correction methods

Increased environmental drying risk for anurans globally under projected climate change

Increased environmental drying risk for anurans globally under projected climate change

Climate change and gastroenteritis projections in Albanian children

Abstract Background Human health can be affected by climate in direct and indirect ways. Increasing temperatures may affect ecosystems, water safety, and exposure to waterborne diseases. This is the first work in Albania aiming to demonstrate the link between gastroenteritis rate and climate in the country. This research was supported by UNICEF Albania through the WASH Global Thematic Fund, but it doesn’t necessarily represent UNICEF’s position. Methods Epidemiological surveillance reports of the period 2006-2022 were used for the yearly incidence of gastroenteritis in children 0-14 years old. Years 2020 and 2021 were not included because of pandemic confounding potential. Historic data for calculating the average summer temperatures were retrieved from timeanddate.com repository. Pearson coefficient is calculated to quantify the associations and linear regression is applied to project the increased rate in the future. Results There was a statistical association between gastroenteritis rate and summer temperatures during the study period (Pearson coefficient=0.78, p = 0.001). There was a tendency that in years with hotter summers higher incidence of gastroenteritis was reported by the health system. For each degree (Celsius) increase in the average summer day temperatures, the risk of gastroenteritis in children is expected to increase by 644/100 000 (CI 95%: 317 - 972). An excess rate of 966/100 000 is expected in the case of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change medium scenario projection of 1.5o C average temperature increase. That implies more than 4830 additional new cases every year in children 0-14 years old, attributed to climate change in the future in Albania. Conclusions The analysis demonstrated excess gastroenteritis risk may be related to higher summer temperatures observed in Albania. The expected gastroenteritis risk increase in a warmer future should be addressed by improvements in sanitation, education of parents and epidemiological intelligence. Key messages • A warmer climate is expected to affect the health by increasing the risk for diarrheic diseases. • Children will be the most at-risk population category.

Accounting for adaptation when projecting climate change impacts on health: a review of methods

Abstract Exposure to high and low temperatures can cause harm to health. Temperature related health effects are likely to increase in the future, due to global warming, unless populations can adapt to a warming environment. Adaptation occurs through multiple mechanisms, however, the amount that populations may adapt to rising temperatures is unclear. There are currently a variety of methods used to include adaptation in projections, but it is unclear how underlying assumptions are made and whether they are based on evidence. With increasing interest from decisionmakers around implementation of adaptation strategies, an important step in responding to climate change will be to understand how adaptation can statistically be incorporated when estimating future health burdens. A systematic scoping review was conducted to identify all quantitative methods to include adaptation in studies projecting future temperature-related health impacts under climate change. Approaches employed in studies were coded into methodological categories. Advantages and disadvantages of each method were also explored, along with the empirical basis for model assumptions. Eight methodological categories were identified from the included fifty-nine studies. More recent methods of including adaptation in projections use a combination of approaches or modelling adaptation based on specific adaptation strategies or socioeconomic conditions. The most used approaches in the literature to model adaptation are heat threshold shifts and reductions in the exposure-response slope. Just under 20% of studies were categorised as using an empirical basis for statistical assumptions. Including adaptation in projections considerably reduced the projected temperature-mortality burden in the future. Researchers should ensure that all future impact assessments include adaptation uncertainty in projections and assumptions are based on empirical evidence where possible. Key messages • Including adaptation in future projections considerably affects temperature-related mortality numbers. • All future impact assessments should include adaptation uncertainty and assumptions should be based on evidence where possible.

Water quality–fisheries tradeoffs in a changing climate underscore the need for adaptive ecosystem–based management

Changes driven by both unanticipated human activities and management actions are creating wicked management landscapes in freshwater and marine ecosystems that require new approaches to support decision-making. By linking a predictive model of nutrient- and temperature-driven bottom hypoxia with observed commercial fishery harvest data from Lake Erie (United States-Canada) over the past century (1928-2022) and climate projections (2030-2099), we show how simple, yet robust models and routine monitoring data can be used to identify tradeoffs associated with nutrient management and guide decision-making in even the largest of aquatic ecosystems now and in the future. Our approach enabled us to assess planned nutrient load reduction targets designed to mitigate nutrient-driven hypoxia and show why they appear overly restrictive based on current fishery needs, indicating tradeoffs between water quality and fisheries management goals. At the same time, our temperature results show that projected climate change impacts on hypoxic extent will require more stringent nutrient regulations in the future. Beyond providing a rare example of bottom hypoxia driving changes in fishery harvests at an ecosystem scale, our study illustrates the need for adaptive ecosystem-based management, which can be informed by simple predictive models that can be readily applied over long time periods, account for tradeoffs across multiple management sectors (e.g., water quality, fisheries), and address ecosystem nonstationarity (e.g., climate change impacts on management targets). Such approaches will be critical for maintaining valued ecosystem services in the many aquatic systems worldwide that are vulnerable to multiple drivers of environmental change.

Saltwater intrusion simulations in coastal karstic aquifers related to climate change scenarios

Coastal zones are crucial ecosystems supporting significant biodiversity and pertinent socio-economic activities. However, anthropogenic development contributes to socio-environmental complexities, particularly public water supply threats caused by climate change. This research presents a case study on the north-western coast of Yucatan, Mexico, which models potential saltwater intrusion in groundwater for multiple projections of sea level rise and recharge change due to climate change and its implications for the public water supply of the regional population and ecosystem. For this purpose, a previously calibrated and validated numerical model is employed, adapting its boundary conditions, keeping its calibrated hydrogeologic parameters, and considering the 2040 and 2100 climate change projections. Simulation results show that under these projections, significant saltwater intrusion may occur, reducing freshwater thickness due to increased salinity in groundwater and a loss of freshwater sources resulting from brackish-saline wedge intrusion. These scenarios are of particular concern as freshwater in this coastal region is the main source for public water supply and for freshwater input in coastal ecosystems. Moreover, this study underscores the susceptibility of karstic aquifers to salinization, especially in the face of rising sea levels, given their unique hydrogeological characteristics and substantial responsiveness to marine forcings. In spite of the uncertainties in global climate change predictions, this study enhances our understanding of the dynamics of these unique aquifers, and presents future saltwater intrusion projections that offer valuable technical insights to design and implement pertinent and resilient coastal aquifer management strategies.

Integrating remote sensing modeling for drought assessment and vegetation monitoring in El Tarf, Algeria: a 40-year analysis

The escalating frequency and intensity of drought events, exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change, present critical challenges to hydrological resources, ecosystem resilience, and agricultural productivity. In North Africa, and specifically Algeria, comprehending the spatiotemporal patterns of drought is essential for sustainable water resource management and ecological conservation. This investigation focuses on the El Tarf region, located in northeastern Algeria, recognized for its ecological diversity and agricultural relevance. Employing a synergistic methodology, this study integrates the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for long-term drought severity evaluation with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to monitor vegetation phenology and health over time. Utilizing the computational power of Google Earth Engine, we process extensive temporal datasets of SPEI spanning from 1980 to 2023, complemented by high-resolution satellite imagery for NDVI computation. This comprehensive approach facilitates an in-depth analysis of drought dynamics, their severity, and impacts on vegetative cover in El Tarf over the past four decades. Our findings indicate significant long-term drought trends, with notable dry spells occurring between 1994 and 2003. Severe drought events were particularly pronounced in December 2022 (SPI = -2.50) and May 2002 (SPI = -2.2), correlating with substantial precipitation deficits. Although areas experiencing extreme drought have diminished, there has been an increase in moderate drought occurrences, suggesting an uptick in drought frequency, which poses risks to hydrological resources and ecosystem health. These observed patterns align with regional climate change projections, highlighting an urgent necessity for adaptive management strategies in agriculture and water resources.

Climate Change and Cities of Lithuania: Threats, Problems and Prerequisites for Solution

The emerging threats of climate change and their impacts on cities and residents are increasingly highlighting the need to assess whether countries are adequately prepared for the potential consequences of this process. While many international agreements on climate change, sustainable development and environmental protection have been adopted, countries often face various local obstacles that hinder their implementation. To address these issues, this paper reviews the climate change projections, emerging threats and hazards in Lithuania and their potential impacts on the country’s cities and highlights the main challenges in preparing for these growing threats. This article presents an evaluation of the climate change forecasts and past climate events in three selected Lithuanian cities—Vilnius, Kaunas and Klaipėda. The study includes a diagnostic assessment of the climate changes since 1961 and climate change forecasts up to 2100, based on the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, using regional and global climate models. It identifies the impacts of potential climate change consequences on cities, forming the basis for the evaluation of the urban situation in the country. The urban situation is assessed in terms of legislation, urban development, environmental requirements and the development of safety infrastructure. Based on the evaluation of urban development, preliminary proposals are provided for the creation of a resilient living environment. One of the key proposals in shaping the living environment—which could be particularly significant in adapting to emerging threats—is the complex formation of new, sustainable urban structures that take into account the social, ecological and economic factors of climate change and other rising threats.

Implications of a Pervasive Climate Model Bias for Low‐Cloud Feedback

AbstractHow low clouds respond to warming constitutes a key uncertainty for climate projections. Here we observationally constrain low‐cloud feedback through a controlling factor analysis based on ridge regression. We find a moderately positive global low‐cloud feedback (0.45 W , 90% range 0.18–0.72 W ), about twice the mean value (0.22 W ) of 16 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. We link this discrepancy to a pervasive model mean‐state bias: models underestimate the low‐cloud response to warming because (a) they systematically underestimate present‐day tropical marine low‐cloud amount, and (b) the low‐cloud sensitivity to warming is proportional to this present‐day low‐cloud amount. Our results hence highlight the importance of reducing model biases in both the mean state of clouds and their sensitivity to environmental factors for accurate climate change projections.

Understanding the implications of climate change for Australia’s surface water resources: Challenges and future directions

Climate change is altering Australia’s streamflow and water resources due to a complex interplay of shifts in temperature, rainfall, evaporation, vegetation dynamics, soil moisture, and rainfall-runoff partitioning. Meanwhile increases in human activity and urbanisation continue to alter the landscape, further affecting streamflow and flood volumes. Understanding the nature of these recent changes is critical for evaluating future risks and ensuring planning decisions are sustainable. Positively, our knowledge of changes to Australia’s hydrologic regimes has greatly advanced in the last decade. Here we review our current understanding of historical hydrologic changes, focusing first on the drivers of change and then observed changes in streamflow and flooding, before turning our attention to the role that historical observations can play in anticipating future climate change impacts. We conclude with recommendations to help better understand and plan for an unknown future.Increases in extreme rainfalls have increased the risk of large flood events. However, declines in mean rainfall across large parts of the continent, increases in diversions, and increasing evaporate demand have led to an overall drying. Significant advances in our understanding have been made through analysing trends in the observational record and investigating the associated drivers. While these learnings may not reliably inform the potential effects of future change, they can still inform process understanding ultimately helping accurately model and project future impacts. Projecting climate change impacts on water resources in Australia remains challenging, and progress will require improved instrumentation to observe and understand catchment responses together with methods and management techniques that incorporate this additional uncertainty. We argue it is through process-informed models together with multi-scale observational data that this gap can be breached.

Global change drives potential niche contraction and range shift of globally threatened African vulture

Human-induced global change poses an increasingly severe threat to biodiversity, with species having limited population sizes being particularly vulnerable. Mapping and modeling the distribution ranges of such species, along with detecting potential range shifts and contractions at both local and regional scales, are essential for developing effective conservation plans. Ruppell's vulture Gyps rueppelli, an ecologically important bird species native to Africa, is experiencing a rapid decline in its range. The purpose of this study is to map and model potential regional spatio-temporal distribution of Ruppell's vulture in Africa, alongside detecting the possibility of the species' range shifts and contractions. A total of 804 rarefied localities were identified where the Ruppell's vulture was the dominant bird species. This study employed the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm to perform species distribution modeling for the Ruppell's vulture. The modeling considered current climate conditions (1970s-2000s) as a baseline, along with two future climate change scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: SSPs 245 and 585) for two future time periods (2050s and 2070s). The model's performance was evaluated by optimizing settings and examining the Area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC-ROC). Among the 13 bioclimatic and anthropogenic variables included in the model, four (isothermality, cropland expansion, anthropogenic biomes, and urban expansion (in order of importance)) emerged as the most influential drivers of Ruppell's vulture regional distribution. All considered Species distribution models (SDMs) achieved high predictive performance, with AUC-ROC values exceeding 0.9.The model predicted a total of approximately 19,453 ha of suitable habitat for Ruppell's vultures in Africa, with East Africa identified as the most prominent region under the current climate scenario. Isothermality (38.8%) was the primary factor influencing Ruppell's vulture distribution, followed by agricultural expansion (29.9%) and anthropogenic biomes (7.2%) in the face of global change. The results reveal considerable future habitat loss (up to 61%) for Ruppell's vultures in the study area, alongside an eastward range shift (longitudinal axis) by the 2050s under projected climate change scenarios. These imply that Ruppell's vultures face imminent population decline and range shift due to significant habitat loss and climate change. Hence, prioritizing the development and implementation of a coordinated conservation program that incorporates captive breeding and assisted migration is critical to save this vulture species in its native African range.

Effects of changes in temperature and precipitation as climate factors that influence the spread of climate-related diseases: a systematic review

ABSTRACT Climate change is an environmental problem that leads to extreme flood and drought events in various geographical regions. The review seeks to establish pertinent issues around changes in temperature and precipitation as climate factors which have been under-researched. It will be established whether the spread of disease and other human risks have been reported under various temperature and precipitation levels; whether sound adaptation measures are in place; communities are provided with awareness toward adaptation methods; and educated on how to deal with mental problems and anxiety caused by climate change. The review has established that little research has modeled variation in human characteristics like age group differences and health fluctuations with climate change, under a wide spectrum of temperature and precipitation. Southern African countries’ research also lacks projection of climate change impacts and risk distribution maps for vector borne diseases under RCP2.6, RCP4.4, RCP6.0 and RCP8.0. In addition, there has been bias in previous studies regarding a combination of temperature and precipitation, as well as non-climatic factors that may be favorable for spread and transmission of specified VBDs. Recommendations from this review could be adopted by countries in order to protect communities’ health.

Resolution dependence of southern Atlantic Ocean stratocumulus decks

AbstractOceanic stratocumulus decks of clouds are among the largest contributors to the Earth's radiation budget, covering around a fifth of the planet's surface and reflecting a large part of the incoming solar radiation. Unfortunately, these clouds are not well represented in modern climate models, resulting in one of the leading causes of uncertainty in climate change projections. This contribution analyses this issue from a novel perspective and sheds light on the mechanisms behind the misrepresentation and resolution dependence of these large clouds. The analysis is based on realistic week‐long simulations performed over a km oceanic domain. Four horizontal resolutions, between 4.4 and 0.55 km, are employed, resulting in a timely investigation, especially in light of the high resolutions employed by present and near‐future climate projections. Results show that the liquid cloud water, the main contributor to the simulated grid‐scale clouds, decreases with a power‐law decay as the resolution increases, whereas the water vapour, responsible for subgrid‐scale clouds, is much less affected by the grid spacing. The leading cause is identified as an imbalance between the rates of change of the advection and turbulence parametrisation terms. In order to verify this observation and provide a possible mitigation to the issue, a second set of simulations is performed where the turbulence parametrisation is tuned. The strategy proves to be successful, confirming the hypotheses and resulting not only in a resolution‐independent radiation budget but also cloud coverage.