Evaluating the continued significance of dam-induced vigorous downstream channel erosion in the context of projected climate change: a case study from Peninsular India

Abstract

ABSTRACT Although erosion has naturally been driven by rainfall patterns, human activities have increasingly influenced erosion rates in recent times. However, as climate change alters precipitation, future erosion control may once again depend primarily on climate. The primary goal of this investigation was to ascertain whether the issue of escalated erosion, typically linked to downstream dam effects, could diminish in significance due to projected climatic shifts later in this century. An erosion potential index (Ep), formulated as the ratio of the mass of sediment influx from upstream to the frequency of the sediment-carrying flow events, was computed on a tributary of the Godavari River, located downstream of a dam. Using the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), virtual experiments were conducted to distinguish the impacts of the dam from projected climate changes on river geomorphology. Two control scenarios were created using the current climate data and simulated regulated and unregulated states of the basin. Employing climate projections and various mitigation scenarios (SSPs) for the 2060s and 2090s, this study estimated Ep values exclusively under future climatic conditions in an unregulated state of the basin. Results indicate that, in the unregulated state without the existence of the upstream dam, future climate impacts on erosion outweigh the current effects of the dam, underscoring the growing influence of climate on geomorphology. It suggests that existing structural interventions may lose their geomorphic significance in the face of future climate conditions.