Objective Of Project Research Articles

Legal and Financial Risk Management in Large-Scale Construction Projects

Construction projects involve many parties and experts such as builders, contractors, designers, and consultants, which causes project arrangements to be complicated with many risks and uncertainties, including legal and financial risks. Legal risks include aspects of contracts, permits, certificates, claims, lawsuits, and sanctions. Conflicts or disputes can arise due to legal risks, which can lead to cost overruns and delays in project schedules. The project manager must be able to mitigate these risks in order to achieve the project objectives. This study uses descriptive qualitative and descriptive analytical methods to provide a detailed description of the research problem. The results showed that the risks adversely affect the legal aspects of construction, time, cost, and quality of the project. Legal risks in construction projects can arise due to several reasons, namely problems with documents and contract articles, lawsuits from third parties, and problems in acquiring project land. Good risk management is required to improve project efficiency, and project performance is improved when the organization can create a high fit between risk exposure and risk management profile.

(Invited) The U.S. Department of Energy’s Hydrogen Consortium for Advanced Water Splitting Materials

The goals of the Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Office (HFTO) support those of the Biden Administration to build a clean and equitable energy economy and address the climate crisis through development and deployment of hydrogen technologies to the benefit of all Americans. HFTO is dedicated to meeting the goals of DOE’s Hydrogen Shot,1 which targets affordable clean hydrogen production at $1/kg within the decade, and the H2@Scale Initiative,2 which aims to advance affordable hydrogen to enable decarbonization and revenue opportunities across multiple sectors.HFTO’s HydroGEN consortium (https://www.h2awsm.org) for advanced water splitting (AWS) materials, part of the DOE’s Energy Materials Network (EMN), focuses on multiple clean hydrogen production pathways, including several relevant to renewable fuels via artificial photosynthesis. Since the consortium’s establishment in 2016, HydroGEN researchers have made significant progress in the areas of low and high temperature electrolysis, as well as solar thermochemical (STCH), and most relevant here, photoelectrochemical (PEC) hydrogen production pathways. The HydroGEN consortium facilitates collaborations between national laboratories, academia, and industry, bringing together world-class technical expertise with state-of-the-art facilities made available to project partners. HydroGEN offers an extensive collection of materials research capabilities for addressing R&D challenges. Project participants can choose from over 40 unique capability nodes. Each capability node is comprised of a combination of a tool, technique, and expertise that is unique to the national laboratory system.HydroGEN has supported over 30 competitively selected R&D projects with industry and academic partners by providing streamlined access to national lab resources and expertise. The consortium is also involved in fostering cross-cutting activities to advance material performance and durability through community engagement and protocol development and initiating critical laboratory-led efforts to address specific R&D gaps in the AWS portfolio.A new cohort of solar fuels focused projects were recently selected through the Funding Opportunity Announcement (FOA) Number: DE-FOA-0002792 with additional funding in this area expected in the future. A total of 11 new projects were selected, six in PEC and five in STCH, to work with the HydroGEN consortium towards advancing solar fuels production technology. Projects from both technology pathways must define materials metrics and targets for meeting the interim hydrogen cost target of $2/kg-H2 with extrapolation to additional requirements for meeting $1/kg-H2.Selected PEC projects focused on the development of materials or material systems for efficient and durable PEC water-splitting with a focus on innovations in bandgap and bandgap alignment, functional interfaces, stable surface catalysis, and protective coatings. A successful PEC photoelectrode project will need to achieve 15% STH efficiency for the entirety of operation exceeding 1,000 hours, with proposed pathways for achieving efficiencies up to 25% and durability up to 10,000 hours. Further, PEC systems will be required to demonstrate hydrogen production at a rate of 0.1 g/h for diurnal operation over two weeks.Selected STCH projects focused on accelerating discovery, development, and demonstration of alternative redox materials for a two-step STCH process and addressing projected costs and materials challenges associated with the required operating temperatures. Successful STCH projects will need to include a demonstration of the STCH process using sunlight or simulated sunlight. STCH systems must demonstrate hydrogen production at a rate of 1 g/h for diurnal operation over two weeks.For the first time, in line with the Justice40 Initiative,3 applicants were required to submit DEIA (diversity equity, inclusion, and accessibility) plans. Objectives from these plans were incorporated into the project objectives with specific goals identified for each year.Despite the progress, there is still significant ground to be covered through water splitting materials R&D. With the support of HydroGEN, these selected projects will help to address remaining challenges and enable low-cost and large-scale hydrogen production. An overview of consortium and project goals and objectives will be discussed. Hydrogen Shot | Department of EnergyH2@Scale | Department of Energy,The Justice40 initiative, created by Executive Order 14008, establishes a goal that 40% of the overall benefits of certain federal investments flow to disadvantaged communities. Figure 1

(Invited) Electrolysis of Liquid Dairy Cow Manure into Clean Reusable Water

Livestock wastewater management is a critical concern in the United States, with an annual production of 1.2 to 1.37 billion tons of waste, surpassing human waste by three to twenty times. This mismanagement poses significant threats to freshwater sources, ecosystems, and public health. Agriwater’s project proposes an innovative solution using electrocoagulation (EC) treatment. The EC technique is a process involving the intentional corrosion of aluminum or iron electrodes to introduce trivalent ions, facilitating the co-precipitation and coagulation of contaminants, making their removal as sludge easier. The project's primary objective is to use electrolysis to convert liquid animal waste into clean water for irrigation, drinking, and farm maintenance. This solution is vital for various farms, including those facing drought, zero-discharge, and EPA-permitted farms discharging manure into rivers. Preliminary research shows EC's potential to significantly reduce turbidity and phosphate levels in livestock wastewater, forming the basis for scalable on-site treatment. The project team, with expertise in electrolysis, wastewater treatment, and agricultural engineering, ensures the development of an industrial-grade water treatment system. This project is in collaboration with Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the University of Tennessee's Dairy Farm and addresses immediate environmental challenges that contribute to a more sustainable and responsible agricultural industry.

Southern Ocean heat buffer constrained by present-day ENSO teleconnection

The heat storage capacity of Southern Ocean (SO) buffers future atmospheric warming but differs vastly across climate models. Reducing its projection uncertainty is vital for understanding and evaluating future global sustainability. Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, we show that the present-day SO high-latitude easterly wind anomalies induced by El Niño is an effective constraint for the projected increase in SO heat content. Models simulating weaker El Niño-induced easterlies generate more equatorward atmospheric teleconnection in the present day. Under global warming, these models have greater capacity in the poleward shift of atmospheric circulation, thus generate stronger future increase in El Niño-induced high-latitude easterlies, slowing the SO heat storage by weakening the northward Ekman transport that underpins the dynamical process for SO heat storage. However, most models overestimate the present-day El Niño-induced easterlies, implying that alleviating this bias would reduce future SO heat storage, thus exacerbating atmospheric warming.

Controlling factors of wildfires in Australia and their changes under global warming

Abstract This study investigates a fire weather index (FWI) and its associated components in Australia using the downscaled projects for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) dataset, aiming to understand how they respond to global warming, particularly associated with different phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the historical simulation, multimodel mean composite results show positive anomalies of FWI during El Niño and negative anomalies during La Niña over most of Australia relative to the neutral year. At the end of the 21st century under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP585 scenario), FWI anomalies increased across Australia; however, ENSO wildfire teleconnections weakened (-4.4%) during El Niño but strengthened (+6.0%) during La Niña, especially in northern Australia. Further examination of the contribution from individual environmental variables that enter the FWI shows that increased temperature and drought conditions with warming in La Niña strengthen positive FWI anomalies, thus making fire more favorable in north and central Australia. The impacts of relative humidity and wind speed anomaly changes also favor fire activity toward the north. These results suggest a more robust modulation of FWI in northern Australia by ENSO in a warmer climate; future efforts to predict wildfire will depend on the model’s ability to predict local climate conditions.

Uncovering the hidden socioeconomic impact of juvenile idiopathic arthritis and paving the way for other rare childhood diseases: an international, cross-disciplinary, patient-centered approach (PAVE Consortium).

Juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) refers to a heterogeneous group of rheumatic conditions in children. Novel drugs have greatly improved disease outcomes; however, outcomes are impacted by limited awareness of the importance of early diagnosis and adequate treatment, and by differences in access across health systems. As a result, patients with JIA continue to be at risk for short- and long-term morbidity, as well as impacts on virtually all aspects of life of the child and family. Literature on the socioeconomic burden of JIA is largely focused on healthcare costs, and the impact of JIA on patients, families, and communities is not well understood. High quality evidence on the impact of JIA is needed to ensure that patients are receiving necessary support, timely diagnostics, and adequate treatment, and to inform decision making and resource allocation. This commentary introduces the European Joint Programme on Rare Diseases: Producing an Arthritis Value Framework with Economic Evidence: Paving the Way for Rare Childhood Diseases (PAVE) project, which will co-develop a patient-informed value framework to measure the impact of JIA on individuals and on society. With a patient-centered approach, fundamental to PAVE is the involvement of three patient advocacy organizations from Canada, Israel, and Europe, as active research partners co-designing all project phases and ensuring robust patient and family engagement. The framework will build on the findings of projects from six countries: Canada, Germany, Switzerland, Spain, Israel, and Belgium, exploring costs, outcomes (health, well-being), and unmet needs (uveitis, mental health, equity). This unique international collaboration will combine evidence on costs (from family to societal), outcomes (clinical, patient and family outcomes), and unmet needs, to co-design and build a framework with patients and families to capture the full impact of JIA. The framework will support the development of high-quality evidence, encompassing economic and clinical considerations, unmet needs, and patient perspectives, to inform equitable resource allocation, health system planning, and quality of care better aligned with the needs of children with JIA, their families, and communities. Knowledge gained from this novel approach may pave the way forward to be applied more broadly to other rare childhood diseases.

Push‐out tests of demountable shear connectors for sustainable composite structures

AbstractThe demountable shear connector is the most important component of sustainable composite structures, as it allows the elements to be reused. The ongoing research and development project – in the cooperation of the Budapest University of Technology and Economics and KÉSZ Group, bim.GROUP Ltd., Hungary – aims to design a new demountable steel‐concrete composite structural system. In the current research, bolted shear connectors with embedded bolts and threaded rods, which can fit the applied technology of the industrial partner, are being developed and studied. One of the main aspects of this connection is to consider the bolt hole clearance – to decrease initial slip and stiffness reduction – and also to provide the proper strength and ductility features. A push‐out experimental programme was designed and completed to study the behaviour of the developed shear connections. It is observed that the examined shear connectors have proper structural behaviour with adequate resistance and ductility, which is applicable according to the Eurocode 4 standard and fits the objectives of the current research project. This paper presents the developed structural details, the observations and the evaluation of the push‐out experimental results with the conclusions and statements.

The Archean-Paleoproterozoic structural evolution of the Caraíba Cu-Deposit, northern São Francisco Craton, Brazil: A historical review of its understanding coevally with the development of a high-risk mining project

The Archean-Paleoproterozoic structural evolution of the Caraíba Cu-Deposit, northern São Francisco Craton, Brazil: A historical review of its understanding coevally with the development of a high-risk mining project

A NOVEL BIM-ENABLED SOFTWARE-BASED SOLUTION FOR MITIGATING CONSTRUCTION RISK MANAGEMENT

This paper presents a novel Software-based solution to mitigate the most prevalent construction risks with systematic implementation of Building Information Modeling Software at the lifecycle stages of the project and provides practical recommendations for industry practitioners. The construction industry has a complex and uncertain process presenting different opportunities and challenges at various project phases. Incorporating traditional risk management methods with BIM helps identify and manage risks effectively. This research paper presents a systematic approach to implementing BIM throughout the lifecycle of an eight-story building project, from feasibility to construction, to manage major risks in each phase. The paper addresses a gap in the literature by identifying and mitigating prominent risks in the construction industry of Pakistan through BIM modeling, based on a review of 180 common risks and detailed interviews. The research methodology involved surveys and data analysis to identify and prioritize the most significant risks and suitable BIM mitigation measures. The study suggests that BIM’s collaboration software resolves communication issues while Clash Detection mitigates Design-related risks before the start of construction. Simulation of Planned vs. Actual Progress and accurate Quantity Estimates achieved by BIM’s estimation software contribute to the successful completion of the project. BIM and its tools have the potential to revolutionize the construction process if used as a structured risk management tool throughout the project lifecycle. The paper advises designing out most project risks in the Planning and Design phase while reserving monitoring and control for later stages as early identification and management of risks is critical for success.

Assessing the Tropospheric Temperature and Humidity Simulations in CMIP3/5/6 Models Using the AIRS Obs4MIPs V2.1 Data

AbstractIn this study, the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Observations for Model Intercomparison Projects (Obs4MIPs) V2.1 tropospheric air temperature, specific humidity, and relative humidity data are utilized to evaluate the global tropospheric temperature and humidity simulations in the fully coupled global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 3, 5, and 6 (CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6), and possible simulation improvement in CMIP6 models in comparison to CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Our analyses indicate that all three phases of CMIP models share similar tropospheric air temperature, specific humidity, and relative humidity biases in their multi‐model ensemble means relative to AIRS. Cold biases up to 4 K and positive relative humidity biases up to 20% are found in the free troposphere almost globally with maxima over the mid‐latitude storm tracks. Warm biases up to 2 K are seen over the Southern Ocean in the lower troposphere. Positive specific and relative humidity biases exist over the off‐equatorial oceans while negative specific and relative humidity biases are seen near the equator in the tropical free troposphere, which are related to the double‐intertropical convergence zone bias in the models. Both the air temperature and specific humidity biases are important to the relative humidity biases except in the tropical free troposphere where the specific humidity biases dominate. The tropospheric air temperature, specific humidity, and relative humidity biases are reduced from CMIP3 to CMIP5 and to CMIP6 at almost all pressure levels except at 300 hPa for specific humidity and in the boundary layer for relative humidity.

Social sustainability in action: An explorative study of practices in construction project management

The significance of recognizing social sustainability practices for the successful management of projects is increasingly acknowledged. However, to what extent these practices are actually implemented within project management has not been sufficiently addressed in the literature. To address this gap, an empirical study was conducted to investigate the usage of social sustainability practices and explore any disparities in their implementation between domestic and international construction firms in the United Arab Emirates. This study employed a mixed-methods approach, combining interviews and a structured questionnaire. Through the interviews, 32 social sustainability practices were identified. Subsequently, a questionnaire was used to collect data from project managers representing 259 firms. The analysis revealed several key findings: 1) social sustainability practices are adopted at varying rates; 2) twelve practices, primarily concerning fundamental human rights and labor ethics, are uniformly employed by both domestic and international firms; and 3) international firms are more likely than their domestic counterparts to regularly implement the other 20 social sustainability practices. These findings develop new knowledge on the implementation of social sustainability practices and advance the understanding of how firm origin influences the adoption of these practices. Additionally, the findings and their implications provide valuable guidance for policymakers and project leaders looking to incorporate social sustainability practices into their operational strategies.

Projected Climate Change Impacts on the Number of Dry and Very Heavy Precipitation Days by Century’s End: A Case Study of Iran’s Metropolises

This study explores the impacts of climate change on the number of dry days and very heavy precipitation days within Iran’s metropolises. Focusing on Tehran, Mashhad, Isfahan, Karaj, Shiraz, and Tabriz, the research utilizes the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) Global Circulation Models (GCMs) to predict future precipitation conditions under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) from 2025 to 2100. The study aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of how climate change will affect precipitation patterns in these major cities. Findings indicate that the SSP126 scenario typically results in the highest number of dry days, suggesting that under lower emission scenarios, precipitation events will become less frequent but more intense. Conversely, SSP585 generally leads to the lowest number of dry days. Higher emission scenarios (SSP370, SSP585) consistently show an increase in the number of very heavy precipitation days across all cities, indicating a trend towards more extreme weather events as emissions rise. These insights are crucial for urban planners, policymakers, and stakeholders in developing effective adaptation and mitigation strategies to address anticipated climatic changes.

Critical climate-stress moments for semi-arid farming systems in India

In the face of the increasing frequency of climate stresses, climate change projections can help in adaptation planning and resilience-building. However, typical climate change projections, such as annual average rainfall and temperature increases, are not helpful for farmers in understanding specific climate risks, like crop loss, and making adaptation decisions. Our study aims to identify and characterise context- and time-specific climate stresses in terms of climate conditions of concern to improve the understanding of future climate risks and enhance the climate resilience of semi-arid farming systems in India. Utilising the concept of critical climate-stress moments, we employ an innovative bottom-up methodology integrating insights from focus group discussions with farmers, key informant interviews, and an ensemble of downscaled and bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP-6) models. Our case studies include (i) a mixed crop-livestock farming system, (ii) a horticulture-based farming system, (iii) a cash crop–dominant farming system, and (iv) a cereal-dominant farming system. The specific climate conditions of concern identified were (i) increasing volume of late-monsoon rainfall, (ii) rising winter temperatures, (iii) increase in the number of days with temperatures exceeding 40 °C, (iv) increase in days with heavy rainfall (> 25 mm), and (v) increasing rainfall during the dry season. Identifying these critical moments improves understanding of both the temporal and spatial variations in climate risks, providing valuable inputs for targeted and implementable climate resilience–building actions. We recommend revising national and state action plans on climate change by utilising such region-specific assessments of critical climate-stress moments.

Embedding Building Information Modelling in the Construction Area: A Case within an Undergraduate Civil Engineering Program

Undergraduate programs face the challenge of staying up-to-date by responding to globalization, internationalization, and regionalization processes. Civil engineering programs should meet the requirements of the Architecture, Engineering, Construction, and Operation (AECO) industry. Building Information Modelling (BIM) is a methodology that involves shared digital representations of built assets to facilitate design, construction, and operation processes within the construction knowledge field. The present research describes a methodology with six mechanisms to develop and consolidate BIM-related competencies within the construction area from an undergraduate civil engineering program. It also explores students’ perceptions about the subjects within this area and their relationship with the training and reinforcement of the competencies. The study follows a descriptive scope with an action research design. The principal result is the methodology, which has six mechanisms: (1) BIM implementation into topics and syllabi; (2) use of collaborative platforms; (3) professor training programs; (4) establishment of student organizations; (5) development of a BIM application project; and (6) area and subject meetings. The validation process, which included professors, enrollment, employability and research rates, and the curricular proposal and students’ perceptions, revealed that the mechanisms could effectively support the development and reinforcement of BIM-related competencies.

Synthesis of results for Brine Availability Test in Salt (BATS) DECOVALEX-2023 Task E

In the 2023 phase of the international collaborative DECOVALEX modeling project, Task E focused on understanding thermal, hydrological, and mechanical (THM) processes related to predicting brine migration in the excavation damaged zone around a heated excavation in salt. Salt is attractive as a disposal medium for radioactive waste because it is self-healing and is essentially impermeable and non-porous in the far field. Investigation of the short-term, near-field behavior is important for radioactive waste disposal because this early period strongly controls the amount of inflowing brine. Brine leads to corrosion of waste forms and waste packages, and possible dissolution of radionuclides with brine transport being a potential transport vector to the accessible environment.The Task was divided into steps. Step 0 included matching unheated brine inflow data from boreholes at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) and matching temperature observations during a Brine Availability Test in Salt (BATS) heater test. Step 1 included validation of models against a thermo-poroelastic analytical solution, and two-phase flow around an excavation. Finally, Step 2 required all the individual components covered in steps 0 and 1 to come together to match observed brine inflow behavior during the same BATS heater test.There were a range of approaches from the teams, from mechanistic to prescriptive. Given the uncertainties in the problem, some teams used one- or two-dimensional models of the processes, while other teams included more geometrical complexity in three-dimensional models. Task E was a learning experience for the teams involved, and feedback from the modeling teams has led to changes in follow-on BATS experiments at WIPP. The primary Task E lessons learned were the impact of hydrologic initialization methods (wetting up vs. drying down), the difference between confined and unconfined thermal expansion, and the large changes in permeability associated with heating and cooling.

Evaluation of Future Changes in Climate Extremes over Southeast Asia Using Downscaled CMIP6 GCM Projections

This study presented an assessment of climate extremes in the Southeast Asia (SEA) region, utilizing downscaled climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Global Climate Models (GCMs). The study outputs uncovered statistically significant trends indicating a rise in extreme precipitation and temperature events throughout SEA for both the near-term (2021–2060) and long-term (2061–2100) future under both SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, in comparison to the historical period (1950–2014). Moreover, we investigated the seasonal fluctuations in rainfall and temperature distributions, accentuating the occurrence of drier dry seasons and wetter rainy seasons in particular geographic areas. The focused examination of seven prominent cities in SEA underscored the escalating frequency of extreme rainfall events and rising temperatures, heightening the urban vulnerability to urban flooding and heatwaves. This study’s findings enhance our comprehension of potential climate extremes in SEA, providing valuable insights to inform climate adaptation, mitigation strategies, and natural disaster preparedness efforts within the region.

Evaluating the Application of Construction Projects Management Methodologies during Construction Projects Execution in Charities Organization

Over the past four decades, particularly in the Arabian Gulf region, there has been a significant increase of non-governmental charitable institutions leading to a wide spread of their humanitarian assistance, social services and diverse construction projects in impoverished and developing countries. Successful implementation of charitable construction projects requires proficient leadership, administrative accumen, and scientific expertise to achieve project objectives in terms of scope, time, cost and quality. This study delves into existing research on extrapolation, utilizating both quantitative and qualitative approaches using digital statistical analysis. By examining all the resolution points and axes, a set of essential criteria has been identified. The criteria can be considered as successful benchmarks for charitable organizations aiming to enhance the implementation of their construction projects.

Dynamics of corporate social responsibility (CSR) during mineral exploration: Evidence from Eastern Region, Ghana

How are decisions around Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) arrived at in the mining sector, particularly in Ghana? To date, the literature on mining and development in the region has mostly analysed individual interventions made in the name of CSR and critiqued the case for embracing it. These assessments, however, very crucially overlook exploration, an essential phase of the mine lifecycle, during which inaugural dialogues are initiated with local communities that ultimately have a bearing on CSR strategy over the long term. This paper examines the dynamics of CSR at the exploration phase of mining projects, surveys local communities’ perspectives on the subject, and assesses the actions of international mineral exploration companies. It does so using semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions with policymakers, exploration company officials, and inhabitants of and leaders in mining communities in the Eastern Region of Ghana. The findings suggest that while mineral exploration companies use CSR as platform to showcase their commitments to social and environmental standards, they have made little efforts to understand the socio-cultural, economic and political dynamics of their host communities. It was also revealed that host communities are not afforded the opportunity to provide inputs into decisions on how CSR should be operationalised. The paper calls for a revision of policies and regulations governing mining in Ghana by making CSR a key requirement for mineral exploration companies seeking to undertake exploration or prospecting activities in the country.

A global attribution analysis of increasing risk of successive runoff-heat extreme events driven by anthropogenic forcing

The successive runoff-heat extreme (SRHE) events, defined as the occurrence of an extreme runoff event followed by a heatwave event, have become more frequent under recent global warming. However, the impact of anthropogenic climate change (ACC) on global changes in SRHE characteristics during the past decades remains unclear. Here, we evaluate the impact of ACC on SRHE frequency and characteristics during 1950–2014, based on the daily maximum and minimum temperature and total runoff data simulated by five global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under the “anthropogenic and natural both (ALL)” and “natural only (NAT)” experiments. Attribution of SRHE changes with different durations and intervals between extreme runoff and heatwave (IRHs) is achieved by using the fraction attributable risk (FAR) method. Results indicate that ACC exacerbates SRHE occurrence for most global regions, especially in the Southern Hemisphere (> 60 % increase in probability), but the spatial variability of this impact decreases over time. The globally-average probability of SRHE occurrence due to ACC has increased significantly by 40 % during 1971–2014 (∼10 %/decade), and the probability of SRHE with the short IRHs and long duration tends to be larger than other types of SRHE. ACC also prolongs the duration of SRHE in most global regions, with an increase of 1–4.5 folds in northern South America, central Africa, and southeastern Asia during 1950–2014. Partial correlation analysis indicates that the intensification of heatwave due to ACC contributes more than that of extreme runoff to SRHE occurrence in nearly all global regions, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere.

Recent and projected changes in global climate may increase nicotine absorption and the risk of green tobacco sickness

BackgroundDermal transfer of nicotine during tobacco harvest can cause green tobacco sickness (GTS), characterized by nausea, vomiting, headache and dizziness. Rainfall and high temperatures are etiological factors known to increase the prevalence of GTS. We analyzed recent and projected trends in these factors for major tobacco-growing regions to assess potential exacerbation in GTS occurrence.MethodsWe analyzed climate parameters, including recent trends (since the 1970s) in temperature and precipitation metrics during the tobacco harvest period for Southern Brazil; Yunnan Province, China; Andhra State, India; and North Carolina, USA. We applied Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) based scenarios for Tier 1 Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), (SSPs of 1–2.6, 3–7.0 and 5–8.5 from 2020 to 2100). Established protocol for nicotine dermal patches and temperature were used as a proxy to estimate potential nicotine absorption.ResultsFor three locations, cumulative maximum temperatures during harvest and temperature extremes rose significantly since the 1970s as did cumulative rainfall during harvest. Projected maximum temperatures at SSP 3–7.0 and 5–8.5 projections through 2100 did increase for all locations. Estimates of nicotine skin absorption with rising temperature show significant increases for both recent changes in three locations, and for all locations for SSP projections of 3–7.0 and 5–8.5 from 2020 to 2100.ConclusionsThis study across multiple continents, highlights a potential link between recent and projected anthropogenic change and potential increases in GTS risk. Under SSP 5–8.5, nicotine absorption could increase by ~50% by the end of the century, which may have widespread impacts on the incidence of GTS, especially among younger tobacco workers.