Professor Of Economics Research Articles

Inflation Expectations and Inflation: Nowcasting and Forecasting

Improving the mechanisms for forecasting inflation is an important part of economic science. National central banks, which monitor and manage the dynamics of the price level in the economy, use and develop these mechanisms in practice. Scientists and bank analysts have developed an impressive variety of ways to obtain estimates of inflation expectations of professional economists and ordinary citizens, as well as models for predicting future inflation values. In the last ten years, big data obtained from the Internet has been increasingly used for nowcasting inflation expectations and forecasting price dynamics. In this article, using the methods of correlation and regression analysis, it is demonstrated the validity of measuring the inflation expectations based on queries in Google Trends. In addition, these data turned out to be a fairly good predictor of the CPI level with a one-month lag. And combining the traditional CPI with a one-month lag and query statistics gave the lowest forecast error of all the model specifications considered. The resulting model is more flexible than the classical methods of forecasting inflation, including by taking into account the psychological aspects of economic behavior.

The unity of science and the disunity of economics

AbstractIn the article, we propose a general theoretical framework to distinguish a set of possible options for integration between social sciences. Adopting the so-called ‘nation’ metaphor in order to investigate relationships between disciplines, the framework uses an analogy with Dani Rodrik’s ‘world political trilemma’ (whereby democracy—here self-determination of science—national sovereignty—here disciplines—and global economic integration—here disciplinary integration—are mutually incompatible) to distinguish three different roads to the realisation of the unity of social science (‘reductionism’, ‘integration’ and ‘complexity’). The framework is then applied to recent proposals for unifying the social sciences that have originated within the economics profession at a time of pervasive specialisation and increasing fragmentation. While discussing the origins, the feasibility and the desirability of disciplinary integration projects, we concentrate on the issue of pluralism in both social sciences and within economics and on the ‘structural’ conditions that would permit economics to participate in the development of a transdisciplinary behavioural science.

The Lost Generation?

Jesse Rothsteini⇑ iJesse Rothstein is Chancellor’s Professor of Public Policy and Economics at the University of California, Berkeley. E-mail: rothstein{at}berkeley.edu.

A Keynesian Revolution or Austerity? The IMF and the COVID-19 Crisis

This commentary for the “Political Economy Section COVID-19 Collection’’ discusses ideational continuity and change at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. It argues that, despite an initial advice to increase the government spending, the Fund has later reverted back to the market orthodoxy recommending fiscal discipline and balanced government budget in the longer-term. The piece argues that, although a global crisis and increased government spending by influential member states such as the United States might have prompted an ideational shift at the Fund, a lack of clear theorization of longer-term Keynesian policies in academic circles and in the economics profession, prevented a paradigmatic change at the Fund.

Negotiating distance to buzz as an important factor shaping urban residential strategies of artists

ABSTRACT The text aims to provide a more nuanced understanding of mechanisms behind artists’ spatial, in particular residential, choices. Moving beyond the usual focus on bohemians who cluster in artistic quarters, practice a particular lifestyle or represent a specific artistic discipline, we propose that artists’ residential strategies involve a complex process of balancing between the desired extent of exposure to buzz that may be termed a negotiated reasonable distance. By developing this notion, testing it in particular urban contexts of two Polish cities and taking into consideration interactions between buzz and other factors which impact on artists’ spatial preferences and decisions, we would like to fill an important gap in research on artists as significant, recently acknowledged stakeholders of urban development. By doing so we also hope to contribute to the broader, current discussion on the importance of buzz to cities, different economic sectors and professions within them.

Women in Academic Economics: Have We Made Progress?

This study uses data from Academic Analytics to examine gender differences in promotion to associate professor in economics. We found that women in economics were 15 percent less likely to be promoted to associate professor after controlling for cumulative publications, citations, grants, and grant dollars. In contrast, we found no significant gender differences in promotion in other fields including biomedical science, physical science, political science, mathematics and statistics, and engineering. We separated the sample by the research intensity of institutions and found suggestive evidence that these results were being driven by less research-intensive institutions.

Committee on the Status of Women in the Economics Profession (CSWEP)

Committee on the Status of Women in the Economics Profession (CSWEP)

Committee on the Status of LGBTQ+ Individuals in the Economics Profession (CSQIEP)

Committee on the Status of LGBTQ+ Individuals in the Economics Profession (CSQIEP)

Committee on the Status of Minority Groups in the Economics Profession (CSMGEP)

Committee on the Status of Minority Groups in the Economics Profession (CSMGEP)

Contributors

Contributors

In Memoriam Eugenia Correa

Eugenia Correa (1954–2021) passed away on March 13. She was a Professor of Economics at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), in Mexico City.Eugenia was a brilliant heterodox economi...

The 2021 Veblen-Commons Award Recipient: Deborah M. Figart

Deborah M. Figart, Distinguished Professor of Economics, has been a valued colleague my entire professional career. I mean this in a very serious way. Whenever I begin new research or rework a cour...

Heterogeneous entrepreneurship and the Sunday Times Rich List

It may appear surprising that economists devote such little attention to the heterogeneity nature of entrepreneurship, however there are several possible explanations. The concept represents a well-known tension between typical economic theory and the concept of entrepreneurship itself. When Baumol (1968) and Kirz-ner (1973) wrote their seminal works they were attempting to respond to a perceived neglect of the entrepreneur within neo classical economics. The explosion of entrepreneurship re search since then has not been comfortably reconciled with for mal mo - dels, and indeed empirical studies have a tendency to lapse into psychological profiling. It might be argued that such profiling (be it in terms of gender, race, age, experience, education, IQ, marital status, employment history, etc) does make entrepreneurs hetero - geneous, however this differs from the way in which we use the term. «Heterogeneity» does not merely mean «differentiated» but ties into a deeper methodological debate about the nature of scientific analysis. In short, heterogeneity is an aspect of the broa - der concept of subjectivism. At a basic level subjectivism implies that individuals can interpret events in different ways, and as a consequence of this we expect a diversity of action that is glossed over when people are modelled as homogenous agents. Having said this, it’s important to recognise the diversity of approaches and methodologies within the economics profession. For example, although the neoclassical system is liable to eschew premises that aren’t tractable, Austrian-school economists do tend to emphasise subjectivism and heterogeneity. But whilst this is strikingly evident in capital theory (see Lachmann 1956) it is cu-rious to note that a similar attitude towards entrepreneurs them - selves is underplayed. In short, since Austrians emphasise the functional qualities of entrepreneurship they treat entrepreneurs as homogenous blobs. This paper intends to strike a middle ground between homogeneity and psychological particularism by de-constructing the entrepreneur (Evans and Baxendale 2008).

Paradigms and policies: the state of economics in the German-speaking countries

This paper studies research interests, paradigmatic orientation and political involvement among roughly 700 full professors of economics at universities located in German-speaking countries. We collect biographical and institutional information on these professorships to derive indicators for research orientation, paradigmatic stance and political involvement. The main contribution of this paper is empirical; it documents the fairly homogeneous paradigmatic stance of German-speaking academic economics, analyzes the interplay between paradigmatic orientation and the policy process and contributes to a better understanding of the role of economic experts in German economic policymaking. Regarding the latter, we found that a highly asymmetric involvement of (under-represented) pluralist/heterodox perspectives relative to (over-represented) ordoliberal views in policy contexts is characteristic of economic policymaking in Germany.

Associate professor of economics, Ibb University, Yemen

Abstract This study investigates the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis in Yemen and the causal relationships between Carbon dioxide emissions, per capita income, energy consumption, trade openness, and industrial share to GDP. ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration, Error Correction Model, and Toda-Yamamoto procedure to Granger causality techniques were employed on annual data covering the period from 1990 to 2010. long run relationship between CO2 emissions and its determinants with significant effects for per capita GDP and trade openness, whereas, energy consumption and trade openness appear to be important determinants of CO2 emissions in the short run. Besides, based on Narayan and Narayan (2010) approach, it is found that the EKC hypothesis does not hold in Yemen and therefore the effect of per capita income on CO2 emissions is monotonically increasing. Toda-Yamamoto causality test proved the existence of bidirectional causal relationships between economic growth and CO2 emissions, between energy consumption and economic growth, and between trade openness and energy consumption

Socialized Healthcare and Women’s Fertility Decisions

Resul Cesur⇑, Pinar Mine Gunes⇑, Erdal Tekin⇑ and Aydogan Ulker⇑ Resul Cesur is an associate professor of healthcare economics in the Department of Finance at University of Connecticut, a research fellow at the Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), and a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Pinar Mine Gunes is an assistant professor in the department of economics at University of Alberta. Erdal Tekin is a professor of public policy in the School of Public Affairs at American University, a research fellow at the IZA, and a research associate at the NBER. Aydogan Ulker is an associate professor of economics in the department of economics in Deakin Business School. cesur{at}uconn.edu gunes{at}ualberta.ca tekin{at}american.edu ulker{at}deakin.edu.au

Natural Disasters and Early Human Development: Hurricane Catarina and Infant Health in Brazil

Victor Hugo de Oliveira, Ines Lee and Climent Quintana-Domeque⇑ Victor Hugo de Oliveira is a public policy analyst at the Instituto de Pesquisa e Estratégia Econômica do Ceará; Ines Lee is a junior research fellow in economics at the University of Cambridge; Climent Quintana-Domeque is a professor of economics at the Department of Economics, Business School, University of Exeter, and research fellow at HCEO, GLO, and IZA (corresponding author: c.quintana-domeque{at}exeter.ac.uk).

Alphabetic norm and research output

In what order should coauthors be listed on journal articles? The norm in the economics profession is to order them alphabetically. Our examination of 42 leading economics journals for the last 21 years finds that articles not following this norm are shorter (by 3.2 percent), published in less prestigious journals (by 5.0 percent), and receiving fewer citations (by 9.1 percent). This association survives various identification checks. Our findings shed light on how teamwork incentives interplay with social norms — in this case, a deviance from the alphabetic norm punishes alphabetically early members more than it rewards alphabetically late members.

Gary North: a critique

In this paper I take Gary North to task for several errors in his recent writings. In section II I address North (2012a). Section III is devoted to a critique of North (2012b). The purpose of section IV is to explore the propriety of criticizing a fellow Austrian-libertarian, with whom I am in agreement in probably 99% of all issues in political economy. I conclude in section V.
 North (2012a) is a very, very good essay on behalf of using gold as money. Entitled «Economists vs. the Gold Coin Standard,» it is an utter intellectual annihilation of the mainstream economics profession on this vitally important question.
 However, in the course of his essay, he makes several relatively minor mistakes.
 But, before I get to them, let me say that I regard them as only minor errors in an otherwise excellent, no, make that magnificent piece. This author explains in great detail why most mainstream economists think a full gold (coin) standard will lead to economic disarray. He also unearths in great detail the evils of the fed in suborning most mainstream money-macro economists.

Alan Bollard, Economists at War. How a Handful of Economists Helped Win and Lose the World Wars

Are economists and their insights of any use in a war? Is their knowledge worthless when the tanks and soldiers start crossing borders, or are they crucial actors in achieving military success? This book recounts the role that seven economists played in six countries, during the period 1935-1955. Alan Bollard is currently a professor of economics at Victoria University in Wellington, and has been executive director of APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation), Governor of New Zealand’s Reserve...