Process Of Population Aging Research Articles

Study on the Influence of Population Aging on China's Economic Development Based on Individual Fixed Effect Model

In recent years, the aging process of China's population has been accelerating, which has a series of impacts on China's economic development. This paper first analyzes the positive and negative effects of population aging on China from the perspective of theory. Then based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 1998 to 2017, this paper establishes individual fixed effect model through unit root test, cointegration test, F-test and Hausman test. The result of the model estimation is that the aging of population can promote the economic development of China and the elasticity of GDP per capita to the ratio of the elderly population is 0.05. According to this analysis, this paper provides some policy suggestions for China's future economic development.

Trends and Challenges for Population and Health During Population Aging — China, 2015–2050

What is already known about this topic? As the largest country in the world, China experienced a demographic transition at a historic scale during the past 50 years with extraordinarily associated changes in the age structure of the population, declining fertility rates, accelerating process of population aging, and growing population scale. What is added by this report? This study presented future trends of five important population indicators in China. From 2015–2050, China experienced outstanding demographic changes — increases in life expectancy and declines in fertility rate — that have led to population aging. In addition, disability prevalence is growing, and life expectancy with disability is also increasing. What are the implications for public health practice? This study provided evidence of healthy life expectancy improvement and disease burden declining, healthy aging, and active aging. Due to the uncertainties of future trends of population structure changes, dynamic evaluations, timely adjustments, and innovations in population health strategy design and management should be strengthened to ensure quality of life under the background of population aging.

Population Aging in Russia and China: Features and Socioeconomic Risks

The article is devoted to one of the main demographic challenges for Russia and China - population aging. In the first part of the work, the main trends in the transformation of the age structure are considered, and the conclusion is drawn about the heterogeneity of the demographic aging process in the studied countries. It was revealed that Russia, which entered the phase of population aging earlier than China, practically does not progress in terms of growth in survival rates and healthy life expectancy of the population, which is reflected in a noticeably lower rate of deepening of old age in the age structure. The aging process of the Chinese population is noticeably more balanced due to the absence of serious gender differences in mortality rates, as well as due to the significantly lower internal differentiation of regions. The second part of the article analyzes the existing and probable socio-economic risks caused by the aging of the age structure of the population of Russia and China. It has been determined that for both countries, the problem of intensive aging of the population is becoming one of the key ones. Even now, the BRICS countries (all of which, with the exception of Russia, have seen a significant increase in the share and size of the older generation) are showing a decline in economic growth. After the completion of the stage of implementation of the demographic dividend, these indicators may fall to extremely low values, which, under a certain scenario, may become a catalyst for the emergence of a new planetary economic crisis, given the contribution of the BRICS countries to the world economy (especially China). Overcoming the negative consequences of the phenomenon of population aging is possible only with the development of a systematic policy for maintaining sustainable socio-economic development in new demographic conditions

The politics of ageing and retirement: Evidence from Swiss referenda

Ageing threatens the financial sustainability of pay-as-you-go pension systems, since it increases the share of retirees to workers. An often-advocated policy response is to increase retirement age. Ironically, however, the political support for this policy may actually be hindered by population ageing. Using Swiss administrative voting data at municipal level from pension reform referenda (and individual survey data), we show in fact that individuals close to retirement tend to oppose policies that postpone retirement, whereas younger and older individuals are more favourable. The current process of population ageing and the associated increase in the size of the cohort of individuals close to retirement may partially explain why a pension reform that increased retirement age for women was approved in two referenda in 1995 and 1998, while a reform that proposed a similar increase in women’s retirement age was defeated in a 2017 referendum.

Aging Liver: Can Exercise be a Better Way to Delay the Process than Nutritional and Pharmacological Intervention? Focus on Lipid Metabolism.

Nowadays, the world is facing a common problem that the population aging process is accelerating. How to delay metabolic disorders in middle-aged and elderly people, has become a hot scientific and social issue worthy of attention. The liver plays an important role in lipid metabolism, and abnormal lipid metabolism may lead to liver diseases. Exercise is an easily controlled and implemented intervention, which has attracted extensive attention in improving the health of liver lipid metabolism in the elderly. This article reviewed the body aging process, changes of lipid metabolism in the aging liver, and the mechanism and effects of different interventions on lipid metabolism in the aging liver, especially focusing on exercise intervention. A literature search was performed using PubMed-NCBI, EBSCO Host and Web of Science, and also a report from WHO. In total, 143 studies were included from 1986 to 15 February 2020. Nutritional and pharmacological interventions can improve liver disorders, and nutritional interventions are less risky relatively. Exercise intervention can prevent and improve age-related liver disease, especially the best high-intensity interval training intensity and duration is expected to be one of the research directions in the future.

Relationships in late life from a personal communities approach: perspectives of older people in Chile

AbstractAlthough the literature on social capital, social support and social networks uses the concept of emotional support, studies rarely recognise nuances of the emotional relationships in late life. Using a personal communities framework, we examine the subjective meaning of family and friendship ties that form the network of emotionally close relationships of a cohort of Chilean people between 60 and 74 years of age. Chile is an interesting case to investigate personal communities, as the country is facing both a rapid process of population ageing and the consequences of abrupt socio-cultural changes triggered by a military government. We conducted qualitative semi-structured interviews using personal communities diagrams that enabled study participants to reflect on what and how different types of personal ties were important to them. Data analysis included thematic analysis of interview transcripts and classification of identified personal communities using Pahl and Spencer's typology. The personal communities framework proved useful in capturing the composition of older people's networks of close relationships and in reflecting the diverse ways different ties are relevant in late life. We further developed a complementary typology based on the distinction between ‘clustered’ and ‘hierarchical’ personal communities. This complementary typology adds a cultural dimension to understand better emotional closeness in late life in a context of rapid socio-cultural changes affecting levels of social trust.

Cohort profile: the mature adults cohort of the Malawi longitudinal study of families and health (MLSFH-MAC)

PurposeThe Mature Adults Cohort of the Malawi Longitudinal Study of Families and Health (MLSFH-MAC) contributes to global ageing studies by providing a rare opportunity to study the processes of individual...

Population aging caused by a rise in the sex ratio at birth

Background: In the last several decades, notwithstanding its historical and biological stability, the sex ratio at birth (SRB) has risen in various parts of the world. The resultant demographic consequences are well documented and typically include ‘missing girls/women’ and the ‘marriage squeeze.’ However, the underlying mechanism and impact of the SRB on demographic dynamics have not been explored in depth. Objective: In this study, we investigate the impact of a rise in the SRB on the size, structure, and growth of a population, with a focus on population aging. Methods: We develop a simple methodological framework derived from classical stable population models to analyze how a rise in the SRB reduces population size and ages a population. Results: Cohorts born with a higher SRB are smaller than those born with a lower SRB. The smaller size of these cohorts leads to a reduction in the total population size, thereby increasing the proportion of cohorts of older persons born during periods with a lower SRB that are the same size as earlier cohorts. As cohorts continue to be born during the period with the higher SRB, their proportion in the population increases and the process of population aging accelerates. Contribution: This study shows that, in addition to fertility and mortality, the SRB can be a driving factor in population dynamics, especially when it rises well above normal biological levels.

Repair of the middle and posterior compartments of the pelvic floor via perineal and vaginal routes without the use of mesh - technique description and case series

IntroductionCurrently, problems such as constipation due to outlet obstruction, rectal/vaginal prolapse and fecal and urinary incontinence have become increasingly more frequent because of the population aging process, with great impact on the quality of life. ObjectiveTo describe a technique for surgical repair of middle/posterior pelvic floor compartments and extra-mucosal rectal wall treatment by transperineal and vaginal approach, using native tissues and present the results in twenty patients submitted to this surgical technique. MethodPatients with symptoms secondary to middle/posterior pelvic floor descent and anatomical changes confirmed by proctological exam and pelvic MRI defecography. Results were evaluated through the Agachan constipation score, using pre- and post-operative questionnaires. ResultsImmediate repair of rectocele and musculature, with prompt improvement of constipation, sustained by 42 months. There were no severe complications in the postoperative period. ConclusionThis is an effective technique, with adequate anatomic repair, improvement of constipation scores and with low risk.

The challenges of aging in China: is healthy ageing a key for medium-long term sustainability of care?

Abstract Unlike developed countries, which are 'being rich while being old' and 'being rich before getting old', China was in a state of 'being rich before getting old' when it first entered an aging society. With the arrival of an aging society in 2026, even with the current economic development trends, it is difficult for China to reach the level of 'richness', that is, the population aging process is ahead of the economic development process, which makes the risks and challenges facing China more severe. It is estimated that by 2050, the proportion of GDP spent on pensions, medical care, care, welfare and facilities in China's GDP will increase from 7.33% to 26.24%, an increase of 18.91 percentage points. Faced with such a severe aging challenge, China urgently needs to develop a path to actively respond to aging with Chinese characteristics, and provide experience for countries that have also stepped into the ranks of “before getting rich”. The 'Healthy China Strategy' is one of the important national strategies emphasized in the report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, which aims to provide the people with a full range of full-cycle health services. This marks a major shift in China's top decision-makers' understanding of the issue of aging: without 'healthy aging,' there can be no truly 'healthy China.' However, in the face of basic national conditions such as a large population, a weak foundation, few resources, and inadequate development, healthy aging in China still needs to break through a series of bottlenecks and obstacles. The welfare state is not the only reference for China, let alone a model that should be copied. In this regard, the article will put forward a number of targeted policy recommendations.

Statistical analysis and prediction based on recursive calculation under short and long term models

One of the most critical factors for economic growth is population issue, which is also a key factor restricting the development of a country. Currently, the population aging process has accelerated, the number of birth sex ratios has continued to rise, and the rural population has been urbanized. Based on the recursive calculation method, the relevant population short-term growth prediction model and long-term growth prediction model are established in this paper. According to the census data, the future possible number is predicted. Practice has proved that our prediction results are basically in line with China’s development.

Impact of Metabolic Syndrome Components in High-Risk Cardiovascular Disease Development in Older Adults.

ObjectiveAnalyze the influence between the components of metabolic syndrome and the independent risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the elderly.MethodsA descriptive cross-sectional study was carried out with 205 older adults from a primary healthcare unit of the Federal District, Brazil. The cardiovascular risk was determined by the Framingham Risk Score (FRS). The National Cholesterol Evaluation Program for Adult Treatment Panel III 2001 (NCEP-ATP III) criteria were considered to analyze metabolic syndrome (MS) diagnoses.ResultsThere was a strong association between MS and high cardiovascular risk (OR = 8.86). The univariate analysis main findings revealed that male gender, diabetes, smoking habit, systolic blood pressure, HDL level, high blood glucose, glycated hemoglobin, and LDL level were associated with high cardiovascular risk. FRS increases significantly with the presence of four or more MS components (by 30%, if 4 components are present, and by 40%, if 5 components) when compared with the presence of three or fewer components (P <0.001). A logistic regression analysis of high-risk predictors was described to reduce the effects of confounding and bias factors.ConclusionThe identification of MS associated with high FRS values represents a cascading of adverse effects on the population’s aging process.

BPC para o idoso

O Brasil tem experimentado um acelerado processo de envelhecimento populacional nas últimas décadas, o que coloca importantes desafios para o sistema de proteção social. Em 1988, a Constituição Federal instituiu um benefício monetário, não contributivo, no valor de um salário mínimo dirigido a idosos e pessoas com deficiências que se encontram abaixo da linha de pobreza, o BPC (Benefício de Prestação Continuada). Este artigo buscou conhecer a percepção de beneficiários idosos sobre tal benefício. Para tanto, contou com uma pesquisa exploratória, embasada no método histórico-dialético e realizada em um município da região metropolitana do Rio de Janeiro, por meio de entrevistas com idosos acompanhados, em um Centro de Referência em Assistência Social (Cras). Os resultados apontaram aspectos relacionados ao perfil dos idosos entrevistados e suas percepções sobre os procedimentos por eles adotados para acessar o benefício, a utilização do recurso monetário e a noção de direito social desses cidadãos.

Mental Health of the Participants of the Third Age University Program: A Cross-Sectional Study

IntroductionPopulation aging is a progressive demographic phenomenon observed in all countries worldwide. The progressive global process of population aging poses many threats, especially in the context of the mental health of the elderly. Third Age Universities are an essential preventive measure shown to improve the quality of life and psychological wellbeing of the elderly.ObjectivesThe aim of this study was to analyze the mental status of older persons attending Third Age Universities in Poland, with particular emphasis on sociodemographic sources of variance in psychological indices.MethodsThe study included a group of the Third Age University program participants from Poland. A total of 247 persons were enrolled, among them 215 women and 32 men. The study was carried out as a diagnostic survey, using the following validated psychometric scales: The Mood Disorder Questionnaire (MDQ), Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS), General Health Questionnaire-28 (GHQ-28), The Athens Insomnia Scale (AIS), Courtauld Emotional Control Scale (CECS), State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI) and SMAST-G—Short Michigan Alcoholism Screening Test—Geriatric Version.ResultsThe vast majority of the respondents did not screen positively for possible bipolar disorder. However, more than 90% of the participants presented with the symptoms of mild depression, and more than one-third had manifestations of non-psychotic mental morbidity. Nearly half of the respondents had complaints associated with insomnia, and in more than one-fourth, SMAST-G score raised suspicion of problem alcohol drinking. Retired participants were shown to present with significantly higher levels of anger control than the occupationally active respondents. Respondents with poor economic status had significantly higher levels of symptoms for non-psychotic mental disorders. Men significantly more often than women showed symptoms raising suspicion of alcohol-related problems.DiscussionIn conclusion, the study group was characterized primarily by the mild depressive and anxiety symptoms. The mental health of the Polish participants of the Third Age University program was significantly modulated by their socio-occupational and marital status, and financial condition. The study showed that persons with likely problem alcohol drinking differed from other respondents in terms of the occurrence of possible bipolar disorder, depression, and non-psychotic symptoms of mental disorders, state and trait anxiety levels and anger control. There is a need for further research in the field of mental health status in the Third Age Universities seniors to determine the prevalence of these phenomena on a national scale.

Urban Ageing in Europe—Spatiotemporal Analysis of Determinants

The aim of this study was to identify determinants of the population ageing process in 270 European cities. We analyzed the proportion of older people: men and women separately (aged 65 or above) in city populations in the years 1990–2018. To understand territorially-varied relationships and to increase the explained variability of phenomena, an explanatory spatial data analysis (ESDA) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) were applied. We used ArcGIS and GeoDa software in this study. In our research, we also took into account the spatial interactions as well as the structure of cities by size and level of economic development. Results of the analysis helped to explain why some urban areas are ageing faster than others. An initial data analysis indicated that the proportion of the elderly in the population was spatially diversified and dependent on gender, as well as the size and economic development of a unit. In general, elderly individuals were more willing to live in larger and highly developed cities; however, women tended to live in large areas and men in medium-sized to large urban areas. Then, we conducted the urban ageing modelling for men and women separately. The application of GWR models enabled not only the specification of the city population ageing determinants, but also the analysis of the variability in the strength and direction of dependencies occurring between the examined variables in individual cities. Significant differences were noted in the analysis results for specific cities, which were often grouped due to similar parameter values, forming clusters that divided Europe into the eastern and western parts. Moreover, substantial differences in results were obtained for women and men.

Aging Society and the Selected Aspects of Environmental Threats: Evidence from Poland

The article addresses problems of population aging in Poland and the selected environmental hazards exerting a negative impact on seniors’ health. The introduction presents the reasons underlying the above-mentioned aging process and provides the characteristics of the primary environmental threats. The next part covers the most important trends and indicators related to the demographic situation in the country. The core of the study is focused on presenting and interpreting the results of empirical research on the periodization of the population aging process in Poland, in the years 2004–2019, using the multidimensional statistical analysis method including, in particular, the data classification method. The key demographic factors differentiating the development phases of the population aging process include, in order of their significance: longer life expectancy of the population, narrowed gross reproduction rate, declining birth rate, and total migration balance. In addition, the article provides the analysis of the selected environmental threats’ impact on population aging in Poland, among which the following were indicated: high temperatures, solar conditions, heavy rainfall, strong winds, droughts, and fires. Moreover, the process of longer life expectancy in fine health is essentially related to two issues: the level of medical care, with particular attention paid to check-ups and preventive measures, and the promotion of a healthy lifestyle. In summary, it should be highlighted that the elimination of all pollutants or the reasons of environmental hazards is not possible; however, the actions primarily focused on reducing the emission of harmful gases into the atmosphere and other forms of environmental pollution should definitely be taken.

The Impact of Population Aging on Local Government Debt

International evidence of Japan and European countries indicates that government debt burden could be aggravated by population aging in the long run. During recent years, population aging in China has been accelerating, with the debt burden of local government increasing simultaneously. Therefore, it is high time that the impact of population aging on local government debt should be taken seriously. However, until now there is still rare research upon whether China’s local government debt burden has been intensified by population aging.In view of this, firstly, this paper estimates the debt burden of each province from the perspective of interest-bearing debt of local government financing platforms. It covers both the explicit debt and the implicit debt, so the results are more accurate. Secondly, this paper analyzes the impact of population aging on local government debt using panel data of 30 regions in China（excluding Tibet）from 2010 to 2017. The empirical results show that the population aging has already worsen the debt burden of local governments to a considerable extent. What’s more, the panel intermediary effect analysis reveals that population aging could exert pressure on local government debt mainly from two aspects. On the one hand, fiscal expenditure on pensions would be more and fiscal revenue would be less, which will expand the numerator of debt-to-GDP ratio and push up the local government debt burden. On the other hand, economic growth slows down as population aging goes severer, which will whittle down the denominator of debt-to-GDP ratio and push up the local government debt burden.According to the prediction of the World Population Prospects（2019 Version）, the population aging rate of China will reach 16.9% by 2030, and reach 26.1% by 2050. Given that the risk posed by population aging to local government debt has been too serious to be ignored, this paper puts forward the following policies based on the mechanism analysis. Firstly, improve the pension system and reduce the burden of fiscal pension expenditures by increasing the size of personal pensions and increasing the return on investment of pension funds. Secondly, as local governments’ fiscal revenue will decline during the population aging process, it is difficult for them to accomplish the affairs arranged by the central government. It is necessary to further strengthen the central government’s authority and expenditure responsibility, so as to reduce the fiscal pressure of local governments. Thirdly, it is necessary to accelerate the innovation progress taking high-tech industries such as artificial intelligence as a starting point, so as to build up GDP and to dilute the debt burden, which can also achieve the purpose of reducing the risk of local government debt.

Prevalence of Diabetic Retinopathy in Type 1 and Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Patients in North-East Poland.

Background and Objectives: The global epidemic of diabetes, especially type 2 (DM2), is related to lifestyle changes, obesity, and the process of population aging. Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is the most serious complication of the eye caused by diabetes. The aim of this research was to assess the prevalence of diabetic retinopathy in type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus patients in north-east Poland. Materials and Methods: The eye fundus was assessed on the basis of two-field 50 degrees color fundus photographs that showed the optic nerve and macula in the center after the pupil was dilated with 1% tropicamide. Results: The experimental group included 315 (26%) patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus (DM1) and 894 (74%) patients with DM2. DM1 patients were diagnosed with DR in 32.58% of cases, with non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy (NPDR) in 24.44% of cases, proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR) in 1.59% of cases, diabetic macular edema (DME) in 5.40% of cases, and PDR with DME in 0.95% of cases. DR was found in DM2 patients in 23.04% of cases, NPDR in 17.11% of cases, PDR in 1.01% of cases, DME in 4.81% of cases, and PDR with DME in 0.11% of cases. Conclusions: The presented study is the first Polish study on the prevalence of diabetic retinopathy presenting a large group of patients, and its results could be extrapolated to the whole country. Diabetic retinopathy was found in 25.48% of patients in the whole experimental group. The above results place Poland within the European average, indicating the quality of diabetic care offered in Poland, based on the number of observed complications.

Age-Related and Gender-Related Increases in Colorectal Cancer Mortality Rates in Brazil Between 1979 and 2015: Projections for Continuing Rises in Disease

PurposeBrazil is the largest country in South America. Although a developing nation, birth rates have been decreasing in the last few decades, while its overall population is undergoing lifestyle changes and ageing significantly. Moreover, Brazil has had increasingly high mortality rates related to colorectal cancer (CRC). Herein, we investigated whether the Brazilian population is exhibiting increasing mortality rates related to colon cancer (CC) or rectal cancer (RC) in recent years.MethodsWe examined data from the Brazilian Federal Government from 1979 to 2015 to determine whether CRC mortality and the population ageing process may be associated.ResultsOur mathematical modelling suggests that mortality rates related to CC and RC events in the Brazilian population may increase by 79% and 66% in the next 24 years, respectively. This finding led us to explore the mortality rates for both diseases in the country, and we observed that the highest levels were in the south and southeast regions from the year 2000 onwards. CC events appear to decrease life expectancy among people during their second decade of life in recent years, whereas RC events induced decreases in life expectancy in those aged >30 years. Additionally, both CC and RC events seem to promote significant mortality rates in the male population aged > 60 years and living in the southern states.ConclusionOur dataset suggests that both CC and RC events may lead to a significantly increasing number of deaths in the Brazilian male population in coming years.

Economic and Legal Instruments of Local Senior Policy in the Level of Municipalities

Purpose: The purpose of the article is to diagnose and evaluate the local senior policy undertaken by Polish municipalities in the face of the progressing process of population aging. Both legal and economic instruments currently used in public social policy for older people were analyzed. Design/Methodology/Approach: The study uses a group of methods typical of social sciences, such as empirical cognition methods, and in particular observation. Descriptive analysis and deductive and inductive reasoning were used. Moreover, in the area of legal regulations analysis, the legal-dogmatic method was applied. Findings: The analysis of the instruments used by municipalities in Poland in the framework of senior policy allows us to conclude that they are not always adequate and able to keep up with the growing needs of the rapidly growing number of seniors. Senior policy in Poland is a relatively new phenomenon. Therefore, there is a lack of experience which would allow to develop long-term legal and economic solutions. This would provide a basis for municipalities to develop stable plans and to take measures for the benefit of the elderly. Municipalities should be provided with sources of funding for the growing needs of seniors. Practical Implications: The results of the conducted analysis may serve as a basis for the verification of legal regulations and economic instruments used by municipalities, relating to social policy towards the elderly, and may also become an inspiration for further scientific research in this area. In the final part of the study, guidelines/suggestions were formulated in this respect. Originality/Value: So far, the literature has dealt mainly with the topic of the silver economy in the context of factors influencing economic processes and the use of the potential of older people, taking into account their needs. This article is an attempt at instrumental approach to senior policy (legal and economic instruments) used by municipalities in Poland. The study indicates that the pool of instruments used is extremely poor and incoherent, and it is difficult to speak of a coordinated, comprehensive senior policy implemented by municipalities, in the absence of appropriate legal solutions at the central level.