Age-Related and Gender-Related Increases in Colorectal Cancer Mortality Rates in Brazil Between 1979 and 2015: Projections for Continuing Rises in Disease

Francis L. Martin,Vinicius Kannen,Camilo L. M. Morais,Sergio Akira Uyemura,Juliana Yumi Sakita

doi:10.1007/s12029-020-00399-8

Abstract

PurposeBrazil is the largest country in South America. Although a developing nation, birth rates have been decreasing in the last few decades, while its overall population is undergoing lifestyle changes and ageing significantly. Moreover, Brazil has had increasingly high mortality rates related to colorectal cancer (CRC). Herein, we investigated whether the Brazilian population is exhibiting increasing mortality rates related to colon cancer (CC) or rectal cancer (RC) in recent years.MethodsWe examined data from the Brazilian Federal Government from 1979 to 2015 to determine whether CRC mortality and the population ageing process may be associated.ResultsOur mathematical modelling suggests that mortality rates related to CC and RC events in the Brazilian population may increase by 79% and 66% in the next 24 years, respectively. This finding led us to explore the mortality rates for both diseases in the country, and we observed that the highest levels were in the south and southeast regions from the year 2000 onwards. CC events appear to decrease life expectancy among people during their second decade of life in recent years, whereas RC events induced decreases in life expectancy in those aged >30 years. Additionally, both CC and RC events seem to promote significant mortality rates in the male population aged > 60 years and living in the southern states.ConclusionOur dataset suggests that both CC and RC events may lead to a significantly increasing number of deaths in the Brazilian male population in coming years.

Highlights

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is currently reported as one of the leading causes of cancer-related deaths worldwide, in males and females [1]
Considering that most CRC cases are sporadic in aetiology, changes in lifestyle across the globe could be directly linked to the increasing incidence of this disease [1, 4, 6,7,8]
We analysed the mortality rates related to CC and RC events in Brazil

Summary

Introduction

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is currently reported as one of the leading causes of cancer-related deaths worldwide, in males and females [1]. An uncountable number of factors may augment CRC rates in a given human cohort, ageing of the worldwide population may play the most pivotal role in this disease aetiology and can be considered one of the primary mechanisms driving the CRC development [5]. Most CRC incidence and mortality occurs in elderly populations living in developed countries [6]. In keeping with this idea, Kuipers et al observed that the average lifetime risk for CRC might be up to 5% in a general population set without a family history for the disease. Another study suggests that about 60% of CRC cases will be found in developing countries by the year 2030 [8]

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Results

Conclusion