Probable Date Research Articles

Ascent of the conus medullaris in human foetuses: a systematic review and meta-analysis

The aim of the present systematic review and meta-analysis was to identify when the ascent of the conus medullaris occurs in human foetuses considering differences in evaluation methods and sample characteristics. Five databases were searched for relevant articles using different combinations of keywords. Article selection and data extraction were performed independently by two reviewers. Disagreements were resolved by a third reviewer. The variables were distributed into four groups according to the gestational age of the specimens: I (13–18 weeks); II (19–25 weeks); III (26–32 weeks); IV (33 weeks to the probable date of birth). Eighteen articles were included. The majority used imaging exams as the evaluation method. Cadaveric dissections were reported in the remaining articles. Only morphological studies were included in the meta-analysis. Significant ascent occurs between groups I and III as well as groups II and IV. Despite the considerable heterogeneity among the studies included in the present review, the findings enabled the determination that the conus medullaris reaches its normal birth level by the 26th week. Further analyses should be performed based on nationality and ethnicity to diminish the heterogeneity of the data.

The Triumphs of Pelops and Bellerophon: Unique Mosaic Evidence ofRomanitasin Late Roman Britain

AbstractA Roman villa building at Mud Hole, Boxford, West Berkshire, was examined by excavation in 2017 and 2019, and found to be of probable fourth-century date. One room of this otherwise seemingly modest villa contained a remarkable late fourth-century figured mosaic, which features a number of rare mythological subjects not previously encountered in Britain. Inscriptions suggest the name of the villa owner (Caepio) and his wife (Fortunata), with a possible Spanish connection. The mosaic's central panel is ornamented with the triumphs of Pelops and Bellerophon, the former known only from two other mosaics, in Syria and Spain. The borders also contain depictions of stories unknown on other mosaics, but all concerned with aspects of triumph. The central panel is upheld by walkingtelamones(giants), otherwise only known on a mosaic from Tusculum, and the mosaicists have attempted to use foreshortening to give the floor atrompe l'oeileffect. The rare subjects depicted on the floor all relate to either Poseidon, Pelops, Bellerophon or Atlas, and suggest high standards of mythological knowledge and longevity of classical culture amongst the villa-owning inhabitants of late fourth-century Berkshire. The mosaic shows a connection to earlier depictions of the Pelops story, but is highly original in its interpretation of them and follows a contemporary trend, not previously encountered in Britain, of its subjects breaking out from their ornamental borders. The mosaic is an altogether exceptional discovery and can be considered an important example of late Roman art so far found in Britain.

TWO LETTERS OF THE USURPER MAGNUS MAXIMUS (COLLECTIO AVELLANA39 AND 40)

AbstractThis article presents, for the first time in English, a translation of the two letters of the usurping emperor Magnus Maximus that are to be found within theCollectio Avellana(letters 39 and 40). The letters—from Maximus to the Emperor Valentinian II and from Maximus to Siricius, bishop of Rome—are each introduced with an extensive discussion of their subject matter, the circumstances of their composition, and their probable date. The article then considers possible reasons for these letters’ unusual survival; as letters of a usurping emperor, one would have expected them to be destroyed, and the article explores how we may understand their inclusion in theCollectio Avellana. Finally, the translations are given, with extensive commentary in their notes.

Architecture, Sculpture, and Apostolate at the Dominican Church of Negroponte

Abstract The present article endeavors to examine a decidedly understudied ensemble of early-fourteenth-century architectural sculpture gracing the interior of the church of the Dominican friary in the town of Negroponte, i.e. modern Chalkis on the island of Euboea. This building, now dedicated to Agia Paraskevi, has preserved a remarkable series of delicately carved corbels in the lateral chapels at its eastern end, together with an extremely elaborate set of sculpted archivolts assembled to form the triumphal arch of the cappella maggiore. After a brief discussion of the sculptures’ probable date and place within the cultural context of Lombard and Venetian Negroponte, the essay turns to the iconography of the diminutive figures emerging from the foliage on the triumphal arch archivolts. Representing not only the order’s venerable saintly patrons but also members of diverse social classes and even outcasts, such as the Jews, these sculptures appear to articulate a message of universal validity concerning the apostolic mission of the Friars Preacher that transcended the cultural landscape of medieval Greece, enriching scholarly discourse on the art of both the Dominicans and the Latin East.

Presumed Normal Hemodynamic Values of the Arteries in the Final Third Period of Gestation in Bitches

Background: Doppler ultrasonography enables the investigation of vascular blood flow indexes in gestational assessment, being able to detect vascular resistances that can affect fetal and maternal circulation, such as cases of placental insufficiency, associated with fetal cerebral oxygenation deficit and fetal distress. The study aims to assume hemodynamically normal values in the final third of gestation in bitches, of the umbilical, uteroplacental, middle cerebral and internal carotid arteries, correlating the obtained Doppler velocimetric indexes, for the assessment of the feto-placental circulation, and prediction of fetal viability indexes, fetal centralization and probable date of delivery.Materials, Methods & Results: Thirty healthy bitches were examined in the final third of gestation (40-60 days). These were evaluated by Doppler ultrasonography at 2 times (T): T1: between 40-50 days; T2: between 51-60 of gestation. At each time point, the peak systolic velocities (PSV) and end-diastolic velocities (EDV) used to obtain the pulsatility (IP) and resistivity (IR) indexes of the umbilical, uteroplacental, middle cerebral and internal carotid arteries of fetuses were evaluated. Also, the systole/diastole (S/D) ratio of these vessels was evaluated. The data obtained were subjected to analysis of variance and Tukey test, using a P value equal to 5%. A significant difference was observed between velocities and Doppler velocimetric indexes between the 2 phases of the gestational final third in all studied vessels. There was an increase in the values of PSV and EDV and a decrease in the indexes, as the probable date of delivery approached. The analysis of the umbilical cord IR showed an increase from P1 to P2 (P < 0.05), while the IP decreased at the same time. For all studied variables there was a statistically significant difference (P < 0.05). In the uteroplacental artery, similarly to the umbilical artery, the PSV and EDV values showed an increase between P1 and P2, while the S/D ratio decreased up to 60 days of gestation (P2). The IR and IP of these vessels decreased during the study interval in pregnant bitches. The studied variables showed a statistically significant difference when analyzed comparatively between P1 and P2 (P < 0.05). As for the middle cerebral artery and internal carotid artery, the PSV and EDV values increased until the end of pregnancy. Likewise, the Doppler velocimetric values and the S/D ratio decreased until the end of pregnancy (P2).Discussion: The hemodynamic values obtained for the umbilical artery and uterine artery were significantly different between 40 and 50 days of gestation (P1) and 50 and 60 days of gestation (P2), with a decrease in vascular resistance and an increase in velocities. It can be related to a greater association of maternal-fetal blood perfusion, due to the increased demand for the development of the fetus. The Middle Cerebral Artery (MCA) also showed changes between P1 and P2, with an increase in PSV and EDV in the final third of pregnancy, and the S/D ratio was reduced, differing significantly between P1 and P2. The systolic (PSV) and diastolic (EDV) flow velocities of the internal carotid artery increased progressively, while the IR, IP and the S/D ratio decreased, between the evaluated periods (P1 and P2), providing greater flow in canine fetuses, maintaining normal heart rate, indicating positive fetal viability. Keywords: Doppler, gestational ultrasound, bitches, fetal circulation, umbilical artery, internal carotid, fetal middle cerebral artery.

QIZQAPAN: A ROCK-CUT TOMB FROM THE MEDIAN, ACHAEMENID, SELEUCID OR PARTHIAN PERIOD?

More than eight decades have passed since Edmonds's introduction to the rock-cut Tomb of Qizqapan, yet there are still ambiguities and questions regarding a number of aspects, specifically its dating. Different dates from the Median, Achaemenid, Seleucid, and Parthian periods have been proposed for this monument. However, out of all the proposed eras, none has been fully accepted by the majority of archaeologists, and disagreements regarding the date still continue. This article reviews and analyses previous proposals and discusses and evaluates other elements which affect the dating of this monument. The results show that by taking into account several factors, the most probable date for this tomb is the fourth century B.C., contemporaneous with the late Achaemenid and the early Seleucid period. The conclusion is that Qizqapan does have a Median identity but not a Median period date.

Vasculitis

Vasculitis is a group of clinicopathological entities involving inflammation of the blood vessel walls. The different forms of vasculitis may vary in terms of aetiology, pathogenesis, type, and calibre of vessel involved, type of inflammation, preferential organ distribution, clinical manifestations, genetic predisposition, and demographic characteristics. The classification most widely used currently is based on the nominal definitions proposed by the International Chapel Hill Consensus Conference (CHCC) in its 2012 revision. The aetiology of vasculitis is still not fully understood, despite recent advances in the study of genetics and pathogenesis. Due to the variability of vasculitis, there is no single, uniform diagnostic method. Diagnosis of vasculitis is challenging in most cases. However, a detailed clinical history, careful physical examination and appropriate laboratory tests from the information obtained from them are necessary in all types of vasculitis to establish a correct diagnosis, its probable date and manner of onset, the organs or systems affected and the extent of disease.

A Framework for a Statistical Characterization of Epidemic Cycles: COVID-19 Case Study.

BackgroundSince the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers and health authorities have sought to identify the different parameters that drive its local transmission cycles to make better decisions regarding prevention and control measures. Different modeling approaches have been proposed in an attempt to predict the behavior of these local cycles.ObjectiveThis paper presents a framework to characterize the different variables that drive the local, or epidemic, cycles of the COVID-19 pandemic, in order to provide a set of relatively simple, yet efficient, statistical tools to be used by local health authorities to support decision making.MethodsVirtually closed cycles were compared to cycles in progress from different locations that present similar patterns in the figures that describe them. With the aim to compare populations of different sizes at different periods of time and locations, the cycles were normalized, allowing an analysis based on the core behavior of the numerical series. A model for the reproduction number was derived from the experimental data, and its performance was presented, including the effect of subnotification (ie, underreporting). A variation of the logistic model was used together with an innovative inventory model to calculate the actual number of infected persons, analyze the incubation period, and determine the actual onset of local epidemic cycles.ResultsThe similarities among cycles were demonstrated. A pattern between the cycles studied, which took on a triangular shape, was identified and used to make predictions about the duration of future cycles. Analyses on effective reproduction number (Rt) and subnotification effects for Germany, Italy, and Sweden were presented to show the performance of the framework introduced here. After comparing data from the three countries, it was possible to determine the probable dates of the actual onset of the epidemic cycles for each country, the typical duration of the incubation period for the disease, and the total number of infected persons during each cycle. In general terms, a probable average incubation time of 5 days was found, and the method used here was able to estimate the end of the cycles up to 34 days in advance, while demonstrating that the impact of the subnotification level (ie, error) on the effective reproduction number was <5%.ConclusionsIt was demonstrated that, with relatively simple mathematical tools, it is possible to obtain a reliable understanding of the behavior of COVID-19 local epidemic cycles, by introducing an integrated framework for identifying cycle patterns and calculating the variables that drive it, namely: the Rt, the subnotification effects on estimations, the most probable actual cycles start dates, the total number of infected, and the most likely incubation period for SARS-CoV-2.

Documentary Evidence about the Year of Birth of Vasil Levski

Bulgarian historiography did not find to date a documentary source based evidence that firmly establishes 6 July 1837 as the birth date of Vasil Levski. Therefore, other hypotheses placing the birth of Levski in 1846 or 1843 have lately been put forward. The present article examines data from the population registers of Karlovo, kept in the Ottoman archives in Istanbul, and argues that 1840 is Vasil Levski’s most probable birth date.

Mass Burial Genomics Reveals Outbreak of Enteric Paratyphoid Fever in the Late Medieval Trade City Lübeck

In the Middle Ages, European settlements of all sizes were repeatedly affected by outbreaks of infectious diseases. Some of the outbreaks reached epidemic proportions, the second plague pandemic being the most notorious of all. A Late Medieval mass-burial site next to the Heiligen-Geist-Hospital (HGH) in Lubeck, a city of the Hanseatic League, contained the skeletal remains of more than 800 individuals assumed to have died of an infectious disease, most probably of the plague. However, Lubeck was ravaged by at least six pestilences in the 14 th century alone. We investigated ancient DNA extracts of 92 individuals from the HGH site to determine whether viral or bacterial pathogenic DNA was present that would help identify the cause of death. Metagenomic screening revealed evidence of an infection with Mi>Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica serovar Paratyphi C, suggesting an epidemic outbreak of enteric paratyphoid fever. A full reconstruction was possible for three S. Paratyphi C genomes that showed a close similarity to another strain from 1200 CE Norway. Based on radiocarbon dates, we determined the enteric paratyphoid fever outbreak in Lubeck to have occurred between 1360 and 1400 CE, historical records indicating the year 1367 CE as the most probable date. Our results also showed that the disease victims were people of northern and eastern European descent, confirming that Hanseatic Lubeck was an important trading centre for the Baltic region.

St Lawrence, Alton, Hampshire: the Romanesque crossing and the origins of the Anglo-Saxon minster

The earliest architectural details of the church of St Lawrence, Alton are the Romanesque crossing arches which date from c.1095-1110. A survey of the crossing, however, suggests the arches were inserted into an earlier structure: a minster church indirectly implied in the grant of William I of the church at Alton to New Minster. The 1984 excavations at Amery House immediately south of the church revealed two ditches, one of probable 7th-century date, which may relate to a minster enclosure. This possibly succeeded an early Anglo-Saxon cemetery, though there is no evidence for direct continuity. Alton’s dependent chapel at Holybourne was axially aligned on springs which the place-name suggests were of ritual significance, but this was also a hundredal meeting place, the focus purveying both religious and political power.

Sabaton Excavated at the Palace of the Ancient Town of Mangup

This research addresses a sabaton, or an armour element protecting the foot, excavated in the western area of the prince’s palace of Mangup. The artifact is composed by seven cross-curved iron plates. The sabaton was attached to the shoe with strings, as evidenced by the through-holes in its central and lateral parts. The only archaeological analogy to the sabaton from Mangup is the two sets of plates for foot-protection from the collective burial of the participants of the battle of Visby (Sweden) in 1361. A significant number of analogies appeared among the manuscript miniatures and tombstones of Mediaeval Europe and Renaissance paintings and sculptures. According to the analysis of the analogies, the artifact in question is a knightly sabaton of the European pattern typical for the fourteenth and fifteenth centuries. The archaeological context allowed the one to date the find within the period of the functioning of the Mangup palace in 1425–1475. The most probable date for the sabaton to get into the cultural layer is 1475, when the Ottomans besieged and assaulted Mangup. This statement may be confirmed by the finds of other weapons and layers of fire, recorded in the western part of the palace. The paper presents assumptions about the personality of the owner of the sabaton. This person was one of the defenders of the town and, apparently, was wealthy enough to purchase or order expensive armour. The owner of the sabaton possibly was a local noble, a soldier of the 300 “Wallachians” known from written sources, or one of the Genoese nobles who fled to Mangup after the fall of Kaffa.

ОБ ОДНОМ ОШИБОЧНО ДАТИРОВАННОМ ЗАСЕДАНИИ ПОЛИТБЮРО ЦК КПЮ

The article deals with the problem of correct dating of the session of the Politburo of the Central committee of the Communist party of Yugoslavia, which was listed in the Archive of Yugoslavia under the date January 15, 1949. Starting from the content of the source, the author suggests that it was created several years later. Using the method of comparing with other party sources, the author concludes that the most probable date of the session is January 15, 1952. The method of external criticism of the source indicates that the error in dating occurred earlier than January 1983 and has not been corrected until now.

The Vestal Virgins’ Socio-political Role and the Narrative of Roma Aeterna

Roman women – priestesses, patrician women, mysterious guardians of the sacred flame of goddess Vesta, admired and respected, sometimes blamed for misfortune of the Eternal City. Vestals identified with the eternity of Rome, the priestesses having a specific, unavailable to other women power. That power gained at the moment of a ritual capture (captio) and responsibilities and privileges resulted from it are the subject matter of this paper. The special attention is paid to the importance of Vestals for Rome and Romans in various historic moments, and to the purifying rituals performed by Vestals on behalf of the Roman state’s fortune. The study presents probable dating and possible causes of the end of the College of the Vestals in Rome.

La Translatio reliquiarum Ouetum (Díaz 1011): edición y estudio, con noticia de un nuevo manuscrito (Paris, BnF, lat. 18123)

La Translatio reliquiarum Ouetum (Díaz 1011) es un relato compuesto hacia el tercer cuarto del s. xii. En él se narra la historia del viaje del Arca Santa desde Jerusalén a la catedral de San Salvador de Oviedo y de la curación en esa misma iglesia de una joven endemoniada, llamada Oria. Este artículo ofrece un nuevo estudio de esta obra: autoría, datación, fuentes y tradición manuscrita (donde se da noticia por primera vez de un nuevo códice que transmite el exorcismo de Oria); y la primera edición verdaderamente crítica.

The Idiot as Artist:The Fantasy Boats of James Henry Pullen

The Idiot as Artist:The Fantasy Boats of James Henry Pullen

Reverend George H. Judd’s Thylacines

ABSTRACT A rare photograph by the Reverend George H. Judd of two Thylacines (Thylacinus cynocephalus) within their enclosure at the old Beaumaris Zoo in Hobart is published for the first time, and the probable date the photograph was taken and the identity of the Thylacines portrayed is discussed.

Forecasting of COVID-19 pandemic: From integer derivatives to fractional derivatives.

In this work, a new compartmental mathematical model of COVID-19 pandemic has been proposed incorporating imperfect quarantine and disrespectful behavior of citizens towards lockdown policies, which are evident in most of the developing countries. An integer derivative model has been proposed initially and then the formula for calculating basic reproductive number, of the model has been presented. Cameroon has been considered as a representative for the developing countries and the epidemic threshold, has been estimated to be ~3.41 as of July 9, 2020. Using real data compiled by the Cameroonian government, model calibration has been performed through an optimization algorithm based on renowned trust-region-reflective (TRR) algorithm. Based on our projection results, the probable peak date is estimated to be on August 1, 2020 with approximately 1073 daily confirmed cases. The tally of cumulative infected cases could reach ~20, 100 cases by the end of August 2020. Later, global sensitivity analysis has been applied to quantify the most dominating model mechanisms that significantly affect the progression dynamics of COVID-19. Importantly, Caputo derivative concept has been performed to formulate a fractional model to gain a deeper insight into the probable peak dates and sizes in Cameroon. By showing the existence and uniqueness of solutions, a numerical scheme has been constructed using the Adams-Bashforth-Moulton method. Numerical simulations have enlightened the fact that if the fractional order α is close to unity, then the solutions will converge to the integer model solutions, and the decrease of the fractional-order parameter (0 < α < 1) leads to the delaying of the epidemic peaks.

Determination of delivery in bitches through ultrasound measurement of fetal and extrafetal structures

The aim of this study was to evaluate the use of ultrasound as a method of gestational diagnosis in female dogs, and its use in monitoring fetal development and viability, in determining gestational age and probable date of delivery in female dogs. The canine gestation time is relatively short, resulting in the development of the main fetal organs in their final period, and birth of immature fetuses. Determining gestational age allows the time of birth to be estimated, so that breeders and veterinarians can help reduce peripartum loss. Ultrasound measurement of extra-fetal and fetal structures is a common and accurate method for predicting the date of delivery during canine pregnancy, in which they will be chosen depending on the gestational period of the female. The inner chorionic cavity diameter (ICC) is considered the most accurate indicator of gestational age between the 20th and 37th days, whereas biparietal diameter (BPD) is a reliable parameter in the final third of pregnancy, between the 38th and 60th days. Breed variations in dogs may interfere in gestational age calculations based on fetal measurements, and it is necessary to establish measurement standards and calculations for animals of the same size or breed characteristics.

Planowanie utrzymania ruchu w elektrowniach wodnych w oparciu o model sztucznej sieci neuronowej wsparty wielokryterialnymi metodami podejmowania decyzji

Power plants are the large-scale production facilities with the main purpose of realizing uninterrupted, reliable, efficient, economic and environmentally friendly energy generation. Maintenance is one of the critical factors in achieving these comprehensive goals, which are called as sustainable energy supply. The maintenance processes carried out in order to ensure sustainable energy supply in the power plants should be managed due to the costs arising from time requirement, the use of material and labor, and the loss of generation. In this respect, it is critical that the fault dates are forecasted, and maintenance is performed without failure in power plants consisting of thousands of equipment. In this context in this study, the maintenance planning problem for equipment with high criticality level is handled in one of the large-scale hydroelectric power plants that meet the quintile of Turkey’s energy demand as of the end of 2018. In the first stage, the evaluation criteria determined by the power plant experts are weighted by the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), which is an accepted method in the literature, in order to determine the criticality levels of the equipment in terms of power plant at the next stage. In order to obtain the final priority ranking of the equipment in terms of power plant within the scope of these weights, Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) is used because of its advantages compared to other outranking algorithms. As a result of this solution, for the 14 main equipment groups with the highest criticality level determined on the basis of the power plant, periods between two breakdowns are estimated, and maintenance planning is performed based on these periods. In the estimation phase, an artificial neural network (ANN) model has been established by using 11-years fault data for selected equipment groups and the probable fault dates are estimated by considering a production facility as a system without considering the sector for the first time in the literature. With the plan including the maintenance activities that will be carried out before the determined breakdown dates, increasing the generation efficiency, extending the economic life of the power plant, minimizing the generation costs, maximizing the plant availability rate and maximizing profit are aimed. The maintenance plan is implemented for 2 years in the power plant and the unit shutdowns resulting from the selected equipment groups are not met and the mentioned goals are reached.