Probability Profiles Research Articles

Pair consensus decoding improves accuracy of neural network basecallers for nanopore sequencing

We develop a general computational approach for improving the accuracy of basecalling with Oxford Nanopore’s 1D2 and related sequencing protocols. Our software PoreOver (https://github.com/jordisr/poreover) finds the consensus of two neural networks by aligning their probability profiles, and is compatible with multiple nanopore basecallers. When applied to the recently-released Bonito basecaller, our method reduces the median sequencing error by more than half.

Разработка вероятного психологического портрета пользователя социальной сети

We present an overview of the current state of the issue of developing a psychological profile of a social network user, including methodological and applied aspects. The deviant behavior issue among students on the Internet and its prevention in the educational environment is relevant. The author's psychological technology to build a probable psychological profile of a social network user is presented. According to the method of analyzing the content of the user's Internet page, the method of profiling corresponds to the method of analyzing documents, which is used, in particular, in the complex forensic psychological and linguistic examination of documents with extremist content. It is recommended to take into account the main theme and title of the text; the concepts used in the text; the modality of the emotional evaluation of the object to which the narrative is dedicated; the formation of a certain attitude of the audience towards this object. The development and construction of a probable psychological profile of a social network user are based on systemic, activity-based, subjective approaches, the main provisions of general, social, pedagogical, age and legal psychology, imagology, the basics of forensic psychological examination and methods: analysis of documents with elements of content analysis, psychological reconstruction and drawing up a psychological profile. Using this technology to prevent social deviations, criminal behavior, to develop methodological recommendations for teachers and psychologists on psychological and pedagogical support for children and adolescents with identified social deviations is possible.

Отношение к риску, предпринимательство и самозанятость

The choice of entrepreneurial activity and self-employment is associated with higher level of risk and requires a degree of love for it. The literature on risk preferences and entrepreneurship is extensive, but there is a limited amount of empirical research are on the crossroads of these topics. The papers focused on the Russian labor market taking into account not only the number of entrepreneurs, but also their quality and motivation of their choose, do not exist. Ba­sed on the data of the RLMS of the Higher School of Economics for 2016-2018, we build multi nomial logit models for choosing entrepreneurial activity and analyze the effect of risk preferen­ces on this choice. The main conclusion of the work is that risk preferences are positively and not linearly correlated with the choice of entrepreneurial activity. The robustness of this result was tested by using different samples and different definitions of risk attitude and entrepreneurship. The conclusion is stable only for groups of voluntary entrepreneurs, however for in­voluntary ones the decision to be an entrepreneur does not correlate significantly with subjective attitude towards risk. Profiles of probability of entrepreneurship are more stable and ascending for men, but not for women, but this may be due to limited amount of observations of both groups .

Seismically Induced Soil Liquefaction and Geological Conditions in the City of Jama due to the M7.8 Pedernales Earthquake in 2016, NW Ecuador

Seismically induced soil liquefaction has been documented after the M7.8, 2016 Pedernales earthquake. In the city of Jama, the acceleration recorded by soil amplification yielded 1.05 g with an intensity of VIII to IXESI-07. The current study combines geological, geophysical, and geotechnical data in order to establish a geological characterization of the subsoil of the city of Jama in the Manabi province of Ecuador. Then, the liquefaction potential index (LPI) has been evaluated considering the PGA-rock values calculated from deterministic methods applied to nearby geological faults, as well as the soil acceleration records for the city of Jama since the Pedernales megathrust earthquake. The importance of conducting geotechnical evaluations of particular colluvial, alluvial, and floodplain deposits, for which the liquefaction probability profiles have been additionally obtained, may serve as a useful tool for edifices foundations or earthquake resistant designs. Finally, the site response analysis is presented using a linear equivalent analysis, where previously seismic records compatible with the target spectrum have been selected. Hereby, the results of ground surface effects have been compared with the spectra of the Ecuadorian Regulation of Construction (NEC) in the context of local seismic amplification.

Assessment of the capabilities of orthopedic departments of medical organizations to implement modern technologies

The study showed the presence of negative dynamics in the provision of the population with orthopedic dentists and dental technicians, as well as a decrease in the staffing of medical organizations with these specialists. The fact of exceeding the basic rate of loss of dental technicians over the same indicator for dentists-orthopedists by 2 times was established. Since the coefficient of concurrency among dentists-orthopedists and dental technicians is less than the average for the specialty, the possibility of increasing the availability of personnel by combining positions is revealed. The trends of decreasing interest of specialists in obtaining qualification categories are noted. According to the survey of 305 specialists, a model of the most probable structural profile of a dentist-orthopedist was created and the characteristic features of the learning processes and practical use of knowledge on the main new technologies in orthopedic dentistry were determined. There are limited opportunities to improve the availability and quality of dental orthopedic care and the introduction of new prosthetics technologies as indicated by the data obtained in the course of the study.

An ice jam flood hazard assessment of a lowland river and its terminus inland delta

Flooding is one of the most frequent and most costly natural disasters that occur throughout Canada, and although there is ongoing work to update and improve flood hazard assessments and mapping of high flood risk rivers throughout the country, most studies only delve into open water flooding. However, many rivers in Canada experience higher peak water levels due to ice jamming, resulting in severe flooding of surrounding areas. Hence, there is an urgency to expand current flood hazard assessments to include ice jam flooding for better flood management practices. One area that is often plagued with ice jam flooding is the lowest reach of Manitoba’s Red River. The Lower Red River is a low-lying river with a terminus inland delta where water levels are governed by Lake Winnipeg. Ice jam floods often divert water into the lower Red River’s floodplain that is continually being encroached by development. RIVICE, Environment Canada’s one-dimensional ice hydraulic model, was set up within a Monte Carlo framework to simulate an envelope of backwater level profiles that result from ice jams within the study site. Non-exceedance probability profiles were created from the envelope of backwater level profiles to assess ice jam flood hazard.

Local micro-mechanical stress conditions leading to pore nucleation during dynamic loading

Accurately representing the process of porosity-based ductile damage in polycrystalline metallic materials via computational simulations remains a significant challenge. The heterogeneity of deformation in this class of materials due to the anisotropy of deformation of individual single crystals creates the conditions for the formation of a damage field. In this work, a technique of soft-coupled linkage between a macro-scale damage model and micro-mechanical calculations of a suite of polycrystal realizations of a representative BCC tantalum is presented. The macro-scale model, which accounts for rate-dependence and micro-inertial effects in the material, was used to represent two plate impact experiments and predict the point in time in the loading profile when porosity is initiated. The three-dimensional loading history from the macro-scale calculation was then used to define the probable loading history profile experienced within the samples. A micro-mechanical model based on an accurate representation of single crystal plasticity is then presented. Specifically, this model is employed in performing of polycrystal calculations of statistically representative microstructures of the tantalum material subjected to the extreme loading conditions informed from the macro-scale calculations. This enables to provide local-scale stress conditions for porosity initiation within the polycrystalline network. Furthermore, the micro-mechanical model captures the non-Schmid effects that accounts anomalous motion of the dominant screw dislocations within each of the single crystals. The results of the micro-mechanical simulations suggests that the non-Schmid effects significantly influence the local stress conditions across grain boundaries and triple junctions within the polycrystalline network. The computational results also suggest that the von Mises stress conditions and triaxiality at the grain boundaries and the grain boundary triple lines are highly variable but the variability is reduced with distance to the grain center. Furthermore, we found that the stress conditions at the grain boundaries are strongly dependent on the orientation of each boundary with respect to the shock direction.

Intralesional injection of biosimilar rituximab in recalcitrant mucocutaneous lesions of patients with pemphigus vulgaris: A pilot study.

The efficacy of intravenous rituximab (RTX) in patients with pemphigus have been shown in the previous studies. The study aimed to investigate the effectiveness of intralesional injection of RTX in the healing of pemphigus lesions, with lower doses and probable better safety profile than intravenous RTX. Eleven Pemphigus patients with recalcitrant lesions received two intralesional injections of biosimilar RTX, 5 mg/cm2 . During 6 months follow-up, Pemphigus Disease Area Index, the patients' satisfaction, quality of life, the disease activity, the number and size of lesions, the anti-desmoglein (Dsg) 1 and 3 antibodies and the count of CD4+ and CD19+ cells were assessed. All patients were in partial remission on therapy. The absolute count of CD19+ B cells showed a statistically significant decline (P = .006). The percentage of CD4 + T lymphocytes increased 2 weeks after injection and decreased 2 weeks later (P = .01). The average number and size of lesions decreased. The concentration of anti-Dsg 3 antibody decreased insignificantly during the study. The severe pain during the injection was considered as the main complication. At the end of the study, two patients were in complete remission on therapy, and the other nine remained in partial remission on therapy. Few side effects resulting from intralesional injection of RTX and enhanced quality of life of the patients were considered as the valuable achievements of this study. The results showed that although a low dose of RTX leads to a significant decrease of CD19+ B lymphocytes, it did not show parallel clinical effectiveness.

GeTallele: A Method for Analysis of DNA and RNA Allele Frequency Distributions.

Variant allele frequencies (VAF) are an important measure of genetic variation that can be estimated at single-nucleotide variant (SNV) sites. RNA and DNA VAFs are used as indicators of a wide-range of biological traits, including tumor purity and ploidy changes, allele-specific expression and gene-dosage transcriptional response. Here we present a novel methodology to assess gene and chromosomal allele asymmetries and to aid in identifying genomic alterations in RNA and DNA datasets. Our approach is based on analysis of the VAF distributions in chromosomal segments (continuous multi-SNV genomic regions). In each segment we estimate variant probability, a parameter of a random process that can generate synthetic VAF samples that closely resemble the observed data. We show that variant probability is a biologically interpretable quantitative descriptor of the VAF distribution in chromosomal segments which is consistent with other approaches. To this end, we apply the proposed methodology on data from 72 samples obtained from patients with breast invasive carcinoma (BRCA) from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). We compare DNA and RNA VAF distributions from matched RNA and whole exome sequencing (WES) datasets and find that both genomic signals give very similar segmentation and estimated variant probability profiles. We also find a correlation between variant probability with copy number alterations (CNA). Finally, to demonstrate a practical application of variant probabilities, we use them to estimate tumor purity. Tumor purity estimates based on variant probabilities demonstrate good concordance with other approaches (Pearson's correlation between 0.44 and 0.76). Our evaluation suggests that variant probabilities can serve as a dependable descriptor of VAF distribution, further enabling the statistical comparison of matched DNA and RNA datasets. Finally, they provide conceptual and mechanistic insights into relations between structure of VAF distributions and genetic events. The methodology is implemented in a Matlab toolbox that provides a suite of functions for analysis, statistical assessment and visualization of Genome and Transcriptome allele frequencies distributions. GeTallele is available at: https://github.com/SlowinskiPiotr/GeTallele.

Development of footprint framework of performance measurement system for SMMOs

PurposeThe performance measurement system (PMS), recognized as an important tool for rapid improvement, has found wide applications in the larger organizations and has received a lot of research attention in recent past. PMS adoption in SMEs is low even though SMEs have realized its importance and benefits and are now ready to embrace PMS as a tool for improvement. This paper proposes a novel framework, called the footprint framework, for design and implementation of PMS for SMEs. The proposed framework overcomes some of the major barriers to adoption by simplifying the process of design and implementation of PMS.Design/methodology/approachThe theoretical framework was conceptualized and its basis was tested for feasibility using an industry survey. The survey was analyzed using the statistical tools available in the SPSS 24.0 statistical analysis software, and the insights obtained from this analysis were used to shape the proposed framework. The framework was populated for small and medium manufacturing organizations (SMMOs) as a case study. Analytic hierarchy process was used to synthesize the data provided by the survey to build up the proposed framework and its components.FindingsThe footprint framework is a unique framework in the respect that it consists of a set of PMS suited to different company profiles that can be accessed quickly. Any SMMO that desires to determine its future PM requirements has simply to define its probable profile of the future in terms of size, business model and order winner and check the PMS appropriate to that profile from the footprint framework. Thus the SMMO can even prepare for its futuristic PM needs.Research limitations/implicationsThe proposed framework overcomes some of the major barriers to adoption by simplifying the process of design and implementation of PMS. The main advantages of the footprint framework are its simplicity, ease of use, immediate implementation and a built-in knowledge bank.Practical implicationsThis research has proposed a new PMS framework, an out of the box tool that makes it possible for the Indian SMMO to adopt PMS on an instant basis. The footprint framework combines the experience of several researchers and several practitioners to offer a ready-made starter kit that needs no other aid to implement a most appropriate PMS and leverage the industry PM best practices to build the performance measurement knowledge and expertise of the SMMO without going through a protracted learning or training process.Social implicationsThis research has made a novel proposal for a PMS framework by proposing the footprint framework – a PMS framework that is not only an instant, out of the box solution for the SMMOs but also incorporates the know-how to implement the performance measurement complete with information on what to measure, how to interpret and what should be done to improve.Originality/valueThe proposed framework is simple to understand and removes a key barrier of PMS adoption for SMMOs. The user SMMO needs to state its size, business model and order winner from the available options, build up its PMS code, select the matching PMS from the framework and the SMMO is ready to implement the PMS.

Implementation of image-guided brachytherapy as part of non-surgical treatment in inoperable endometrial cancer patients

ObjectiveThis study assessed outcomes of inoperable endometrial cancer (IEC) patients treated with definitive external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) followed by a 3D image-guided brachytherapy boost. MethodsAll consecutive patients treated with EBRT followed by 3D image-guided brachytherapy for IEC were retrospectively included. EBRT delivered a dose of 45Gy. Then, patients had an uterovaginal brachytherapy guided by 3D imaging. Clinical target volume (CTVBT) included the whole uterus and the initial disease extent. Gross tumour volume (GTVres) included the residual disease at time of brachytherapy. ResultsTwenty-seven patients were identified. Causes of inoperability were comorbidities (37%) or tumour loco regional extent (63%). Including EBRT and brachytherapy, the median D90 (minimal dose delivered to 90% of the volume) was 60.7 GyEQD2 (IQR = 56.4–64.2) for the CTVBT, and was 73.6 GyEQD2 (IQR = 64.1–83.7) for the GTVres. The median overall treatment time was 50 days (IQR = 46–54). The mean follow-up was 36.5 months (SD = 30.2). The cumulative incidence of local, pelvic and distant failures was 19% (n = 5), 7% (n = 2) and 26% (n = 7), respectively. Five-year overall survival was 63% (95% CI = 43–91). Late urinary and gastro intestinal toxicities ≥ grade 2 were reported in four (15%) and two patients (7%) respectively. No vaginal toxicity ≥ grade 2 was reported. ConclusionsEBRT followed by intracavitary brachytherapy seems to be an effective option for IEC. The implementation of 3D concepts at time of brachytherapy may contribute to high local control probability and low toxicity profile. Large scale retrospective or prospective data are needed to confirm these early data.

Stochastic Channel Access in Underwater Networks With Statistical Interference Modeling

Designing efficient medium access control protocols for underwater acoustic sensor networks (UW-ASNs) is a major challenge because of the spatial and temporal interference uncertainty caused by asynchronous transmissions and by the low propagation speed of sound. To address these challenges, in this article we propose a new approach for distributed underwater medium access based on lightweight and asynchronous distributed algorithms that optimize the access probability profile over a series of time slots based on a new statistical physical interference model. The latter is based on measuring the level of interference at multiple instants of time in each time slot in order to capture the effects of temporal uncertainty and of unaligned interference. At each measurement instant, the statistical properties of time-varying interference are represented by a Gamma probability distribution. The model is validated through extensive channel measurement experiments conducted with an underwater acoustic testbed in Lake LaSalle. Based on this model, we formulate the problem of queue-aware stochastic channel access. The objective is to maximize the sum throughput of a set of concurrent and mutually interfering source-destination pairs by letting the transmitters adjust their own transmission probability profiles, without collaborating with each other, over a series of time slots based on a statistical characterization of interference obtained through past observations. We propose an iterative distributed solution algorithm for this problem based on a best-response strategy. At each iteration, each node individually solves a non-convex optimization problem of logarithmic complexity. The performance of the proposed distributed algorithm is evaluated by comparing it with two alternative distributed schemes and with the global optimum obtained through a newly-developed centralized globally optimal solution algorithm. Results indicate that by jointly taking the queueing and multi-slot optimization into consideration considerable improvement in terms of sum-throughput can be achieved by the proposed distributed algorithm.

α-Glucosidase inhibitors from Duranta repens modulate p53 signaling pathway in diabetes mellitus

Hydroalcoholic extract/fraction(s) and scutellarein, a previously reported phytoconstituent from Duranta repens were evaluated for their α-glucosidase inhibitory activity using in vitro method. The reported phytoconstituents were also screened as α-glucosidase inhibitor, probable cytotoxicity, ADMET profile, and side effects via in silico models. Further, probable gene expression profile and pathways involved in diabetes/diabetes complications were also screened. Similarly, network was constructed among α-glucosidase inhibitors, modulated proteins and respective pathways and docking study was performed using autodock4.0. Fraction rich in flavonoids was found to possess the highest α-glucosidase inhibitory activity and the mode of inhibition was uncompetitive. The predicted α-glucosidase inhibitors were less cytotoxic to normal cells with lower side effects compared to acarbose. Similarly, gene-set enrichment analysis identified p53 signaling pathway to be primarily modulated by majority of phytoconstituents. Further, docking study revealed scutellarein to have highest binding affinity with α-glucosidase enzyme. In conclusion, present study identified the fraction rich in flavonoids to possess highest α-glucosidase inhibitory activity and could modulate p53 signaling pathway in diabetic pathogenesis.

Li-ion transport at the interface between a graphite anode and Li2CO3solid electrolyte interphase:ab initiomolecular dynamics study

Understanding and the control of Li-ion (Li+) transport across the interface between the anode and solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) film or electrolyte is a key issue in battery electrochemistry and interface science. In this study, we investigated the structural, electronic and free energy properties of Li+ migration between a Li-intercalated graphite anode LiCx and Li2CO3 SEI film, by using ab initio molecular dynamics and free energy calculations. We compared three types of graphite edges: H-, OH- and mixed (H, OH, COOH)-terminations, and three cases of transferred Li-ions: Li+ constructing the SEI, excess Li+ and excess Li0 (excess Li+ + e- in anode). After validation of our calculations with Li2CO3 and LiCx bulk systems, we sampled the interfacial structures under thermodynamic equilibrium and demonstrated that the OH- and mixed-terminations had larger binding energies. The calculated free energy profiles of Li+ intercalation from the Li2CO3 SEI to LiC24 showed barriers larger than 1.2 eV irrespective of the terminations and Li+ cases. We also clarified that the charges of Li ions did not change much upon the intercalation. Based on these results and the calculated Li chemical potential, we constructed the probable free energy profile of Li+ between the anode and cathode under charging and discharging. This profile model suggest a possible electric field approximation for the charging stage, and the resultant free energy profiles with such fields gave a ca. 0.5 eV barrier under charging, which was consistent with the experimental values. The present picture will give a crucial insight into Li-ion transport at the battery interfaces.

A global climatological model of extreme geomagnetic field fluctuations

This paper presents a multi-parameter global statistical model of extreme horizontal geomagnetic field fluctuations (dBH/dt), which are a useful input to models assessing the risk of geomagnetically induced currents in ground infrastructure. Generalised Pareto (GP) distributions were fitted to 1-min measurements of |dBH/dt| from 125 magnetometers (with an average of 28 years of data per site) and return levels (RL) predicted for return periods (RP) between 5 and 500 years. Analytical functions characterise the profiles of maximum-likelihood GP model parameters and the derived RLs as a function of corrected geomagnetic latitude,λ. A sharp peak in both the GP shape parameter and the RLs is observed at |λ| = 53° in both hemispheres, indicating a sharp equatorward limit of the auroral electrojet region. RLs also increase strongly in the dayside region poleward of the polar cusp (|λ| > 75°) for RPs > 100 years. We describe how the GP model may be further refined by modelling the probability of occurrences of |dBH/dt| exceeding the 99.97th percentile as a function of month, magnetic local time, and the direction of the field fluctuation,dBH, and demonstrate that these patterns of occurrence align closely to known patterns of auroral substorm onsets, ULF Pc5 wave activity, and (storm) sudden commencement impacts. Changes in the occurrence probability profiles with the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) orientation reveal further details of the nature of the ionospheric currents driving extreme |dBH/dt| fluctuations, such as the changing location of the polar cusp and seasonal variations explained by the Russell-McPherron effect.

Dayside nitrogen and carbon escape on Titan: the role of exothermic chemistry

Context. Atmospheric escape has an appreciable impact on the long-term climate evolution on terrestrial planets. Exothermic chemistry serves as an important mechanism driving atmospheric escape and the role of such a mechanism is of great interest for Titan due to its extremely complicated atmospheric and ionospheric composition. Aims. This study is devoted to a detailed investigation of neutral N and C escape on the dayside of Titan, which is driven by exothermic neutral–neutral, ion–neutral, and dissociative recombination (DR) reactions. It was carried out based on the extensive measurements of Titan’s upper atmospheric structure by a number of instruments on board Cassini, along with an improved understanding of the chemical network involved. Methods. A total number of 14 C- and N-containing species are investigated based on 146 exothermic chemical reactions that release hot neutrals with nascent energies above their respective local escape energies. For each species and each chemical channel, the hot neutral production rate profile is calculated, which provides an estimate of the corresponding escape rate when combined with the appropriate escape probability profile obtained from a test particle Monte Carlo model. Results. Our calculations suggest a total N escape rate of 9.0 × 1023 s−1 and a total C escape rate of 4.2 × 1023 s−1, driven by exothermic chemistry and appropriate for the dayside of Titan. The former is primarily contributed by neutral-neutral reactions, whereas the latter is dominated by ion–neutral reactions; however, contributions from neutral–neutral and DR reactions to the latter cannot be ignored either. Our calculations further reveal that the bulk of N escape is driven by hot N(4S) production from the collisional quenching of N(2D) by ambient N2, while C escape is mainly driven by hot CH3 and CH4 production via a number of important ion–neutral and neutral–neutral reactions. Conclusions. Considered in the context of prior investigations of other known escape mechanisms, we suggest that exothermic chemistry is likely to contribute appreciably to non-thermal C escape on the dayside of Titan, although it plays an insignificant role in N escape.

Contradicciones constitucionales: el Tribunal Constitucional Plurinacional boliviano y la reelección de morales. ¿Una práctica de abusivismo

Despite of the negative consensus to the constitutional referendum, the Bolivian Plurinational Constitutional Court (or “Tribunal Plurinacional Constitucional”) admitted the possibility of re-election for President Morales over the second presidential term and beyond the constitutional and legislative limit of ineligibility. According to the Court, any limit against the right to vote would violate the principles and the values of any constitutional democracy and of the conventional system of protection to human rights. The right to vote is considered as an important part of the so-called “constitutional bloc” (or “bloque constitucional”), not to be broken by the current electoral law and in order to protect fundamental rights and freedoms. The question is if there is a probable profile of abusive constitutionalism, with the risk of a fracture in the political insurance of the State.

Investigation of Rear-Emitter GaAs0.75P0.25 Top Cells for Application to III–V/Si Tandem Photovoltaics

A rear-emitter (rear-junction) n -on- p + device design was investigated for use in metamorphic monolithic III–V/Si tandem solar cells as an alternative to the traditional front-emitter (front-junction) n +-on- p design for potentially greater resistance to threading dislocation-induced performance degradation. A comparison of MOCVD-grown rear- versus front-emitter 1.7-eV bandgap GaAs0.75P0.25 top cell isotypes demonstrated as 30-mV advantage in W OC for the rear-emitter design. This reduction in W OC was determined to be nearly equally caused by a reduction in junction recombination current as well as reduced reverse saturation current from improved quasi-neutral region transport. These results suggest that the rear-emitter design may indeed be a promising pathway for application to metamorphic cells, including III–V/Si tandems, where achieving maximum voltage output is often hindered by elevated dislocation densities. However, further optimization of short-circuit current collection is needed to overcome suboptimal collection probability profiles that could limit the efficacy of such structures.

PCV110 COST-EFFECTIVENESS OF SUTURELESS AORTIC VALVE REPLACEMENT VERSUS CONVENTIONAL AORTIC VALVE REPLACEMENT AND TRANSCATHETER AORTIC VALVE IMPLANTATION IN BRAZIL

Sutureless aortic valve replacement (SAVR) is indicated for patients with aortic stenosis. The aim of this study is to explore the cost-effectiveness (CEA)of SAVR versus relevant comparators in the Brazilian private health care setting. Three treatment modalities for aortic stenosis: SAVR, conventional aortic valve replacement (CAVR) and transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) were compared in the CEA.. In line with the Valve Academic Research Consortium-2 Guidelines the time horizon chosen was 30 days. The probabilities (30-day mortality, paravalvular regurgitation, arrhythmia, acute kidney injury and other relevant outcomes) were identified via a systematic review and network meta-analysis on randomized trials and propensity score matched cohort studies. Predicted 30-day mortality outcome was reported as odds ratio and 95% confidence intervals. The costs (ex.: cost of device, dialysis, bleeding and complications related costs) were retrieved from standardized tables such as CBHPM, CMED and SIMPRO. Probabilities and costs were modelled as beta and gamma distributions in a decision tree model. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed to assess uncertainty. TAVI overall costs were higher than SAVR and CAVR at R$ 78451.07. SAVR costs (R$ 50743.95) were comparable to CAVR (R$ 50136.89). The network meta-analysis results showed that, SAVR was associated with a lower probabilistic rate of death (2.3%) compared to CAVR (4.5%) and TAVI (4.4%), suggesting that SAVR is associated with better survival. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) between SAVR and CAVR was R$ 27593.42 death avoided and, in comparison to TAVI, SAVR was dominant. In the Brazilian private health care setting, SAVR was associated with the best 30-day survival probability profile between the three alternatives, whereas TAVI was the most expensive therapy. The proposed economic model suggests that SAVR is dominant over TAVI and is likely to be a highly cost-effective treatment alternative when compared to CAVR.

A synchrotron X-ray diffraction study of strain and microstrain distributions in α-Zr caused by hydride precipitation

A thin zirconium hydride layer was deposited electrolytically on a hot-rolled and annealed Zr-2.5 wt.% Nb material. Changes in the α-Zr phase associated with the hydride precipitation were studied by synchrotron X-ray diffraction. Strain variations and the dislocation density in the α-Zr matrix were estimated from changes in diffraction peak positions and using X-ray Line Profile Analysis, respectively. It was shown that the dislocation density increased measurably in the α-Zr matrix due to the precipitation of the hydrides which corroborates previous transmission electron microscopy (TEM) observations indicating that the α-Zr accommodates some of the volume misfit by plastic deformation. The probable strain profile in the Zr-H system as a function of tested layer thickness is discussed.