Probability Of Presence Research Articles

Risks, resources, and refugia: Spatial overlap between yellow-eyed penguin foraging distribution and prey, commercial fisheries, and marine protected areas

Conservation of the endangered yellow-eyed penguin (Megadyptes antipodes) in New Zealand has principally sought to manage terrestrial threats, while relatively little has been done to understand or address marine threats, such as reduced prey availability, commercial fisheries interactions, and habitat destruction. We assessed spatial similarities between mainland yellow-eyed penguin marine distribution and resources (prey), risks (fisheries interactions), and areas of refugia (marine protected areas, MPAs). We determined if suitable penguin foraging habitat, based on environmental predictors using a Maxent species distribution model (SDM), also supports a high diversity of key prey species identified using a stacked SDM. We also created a novel index to predict areas of potential commercial fisheries interactions and mapped the overlap of penguin distribution and MPAs. Areas along the middle of the continental shelf had the highest prey diversity and probability of penguin presence, which overlapped with gillnet fisheries in these regions. Suitable penguin habitat also overlaps with trawl fisheries inshore along much of the South Island coast. <1 % of the penguin range overlaps with current MPAs, and the proposed South-East Marine Protected Areas network would protect only 3.6 % of the current penguin foraging distribution. This study takes an ecosystem approach to assess complex interactions between commercial fisheries, marine ecosystems, and MPAs, which is urgently required for marine spatial planning and adaptive ecosystem management of not only this endangered seabird but for southeast New Zealand coastal habitat and biota also.

Human density impacts Nubian Flapshell turtle survival in Sub-Saharan Africa: Future conservation strategies

The Nubian Flapshell Turtle, Cyclanorbis elegans, is classified as one of the most threatened chelonian species globally (Critically Endangered according to the IUCN Red List). The species is presumed extinct in most of its historical distribution range, but still survives along the White Nile between South Sudan and northern Uganda. In this paper, we utilised the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to evaluate the habitat suitability of the species to explore its distribution decline by comparing historical and current presence data, as well as correlate the predicted past and present distribution with human population density. Our assumption is that overexploitation of the turtle occurs (and has occurred in the past) in sites with high human density. We show that: (1) a large number of historical sites where the turtle was present had high human population densities, whereas (2) the current distribution model showed low overlap between areas with high probability of turtle presence and high human population density. We suggest that Nubian flapshells are likely to have become extinct because of high human density (and therefore high overexploitation) and remnant populations have only survived along waterbodies with low numbers of people. However, the presence sites of this species in northern Uganda are under pressure by rapidly growing refugees'settlements. We also hypothesize that the range of the Nubian Flapshell may be shifting to the south (where the general environment is wetter and cooler) due to climate change affecting the distribution of this freshwater species. The conservation implications of these evidence are also presented.

Cxbladder Monitor testing to reduce cystoscopy frequency in patients with bladder cancer.

Bladder cancer surveillance is associated with high costs and patient burden. CxMonitor (CxM), a home urine test, allows patients to skip their scheduled surveillance cystoscopy if CxM-negative indicating a low probability of cancer presence. We present outcomes from a prospective multi-institutional study of CxM to reduce surveillance frequency during the coronavirus pandemic. Eligible patients due for cystoscopy from March-June 2020 were offered CxM and skipped their scheduled cystoscopy if CxM-negative. CxM-positive patients came for immediate cystoscopy. The primary outcome was safety of CxM-based management, assessed by frequency of skipped cystoscopies and detection of cancer at immediate or next cystoscopy. Patients were surveyed on satisfaction and costs. During the study period, 92 patients received CxM and did not differ in demographics nor history of smoking/radiation between sites. 9 of 24 (37.5%) CxM-positive patients had 1 T0, 2 Ta, 2 Tis, 2 T2, and 1 Upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) on immediate cystoscopy and subsequent evaluation. 66 CxM-negative patients skipped cystoscopy, and none had findings on follow-up cystoscopy requiring biopsy. Six of these patients did not attend follow-up, 4 elected to undergo additional CxM instead of cystoscopy, 2 stopped surveillance, and 2 died of unrelated causes. CxM-negative and positive patients did not differ in demographics, cancer history, initial tumor grade/stage, AUA risk group, or number of prior recurrences. Median satisfaction (5/5, IQR 4-5) and costs (26/33, 78.8% no out-of-pocket costs) were favorable. CxM safely reduces frequency of surveillance cystoscopy in real-world settings and appears acceptable to patients as an at-home test.

Local and Regional Dynamics of Native Maize Seed Lot Use by Small-Scale Producers and Their Impact on Transgene Presence in Three Mexican States.

Mexico harbors over 50% of maize's genetic diversity in the Americas. Native maize varieties are actively managed by small-scale producers within a diverse array of cultivation systems. Seed lot use, exchange and admixture has consequences for the in situ conservation of such varieties. Here we analyze native maize seed management dynamics from 906 small-scale producers surveyed in three Mexican states: Mexico City, Oaxaca and Chiapas. Furthermore, we analyze how their management practices can relate to transgene presence, which was experimentally documented for maize samples associated with the applied surveys. Through a data mining approach, we investigated which practices might be related with a higher probability of transgene presence. The variables found to have a strong spatial association with transgene presence were: for Mexico City, maize producers with larger parcels; for Oaxaca, producer's age (43-46 years) and the sale of seed; for Chiapas, the use of agricultural machinery and younger producers (37-43 years). Additionally, transgene presence and frequency within the socioeconomic regions of Oaxaca and Chiapas was analyzed. In Oaxaca, higher transgene frequencies occurred in regions where transgene presence had been previously reported. In Chiapas, the border regions with Guatemala as well as a region where reproduction of improved seed takes place, the highest proportion of positive samples were found. A detailed mapping of regional seed markets and seed exchange sites together with deployment of national and local biosecurity measures, could help prevent the further spread of transgenes into native maize varieties, as well as improve conservation efforts.

Sustainability of tunas and swordfish exploitation in the equatorial tropical Atlantic Ocean

Fishing is important as it generates employment, income, high-quality food and livelihoods for native communities in many parts of the world. However, when poorly managed, it can cause irreversible overfishing impacts on the ecology of communities. The present study aimed to construct models to estimate the presence probability of young specimens of Thunnus albacares, Thunnus obesus and Xiphias gladius in the Western Equatorial Tropical Atlantic Ocean (WETA) using oceanographic, temporal, and spatial variables. The data used were generated by monitoring the fishing operations of vessels of the pelagic longline fleet in the extreme northeast of Brazil. The Generalized Additive Model was used to estimate the effect of different factors and covariates (oceanographic, temporal, and spatial variables) on the juvenile probability of the presence of the species T. albacares, T. obesus and X. gladius. The capture of juveniles becomes graver in the results obtained annually, for T. albacares ranged between 12.4% and 50.5%, T. obesus ranging from 27.5% to 36.4% and X. gladius from 0% to 13.8% immatures. Models established indicated that water temperature, year, longitude, chlorophyll-a and the interactions between moon phases and latitude, as well as the interactions between quarters and latitude, are statistically significant, influencing the distribution of juveniles of these resources. More efforts and attention should be directed to investigating the distribution of juvenile presence in the WETA, mainly in the southern hemisphere. We want to initiate here a broad discussion and campaign for establishing studies aiming at the constant monitoring of juvenile levels captured.

Use of data-driven models to analyse the habitat preferences of the leaping grey mullet (Chelon saliens, Risso, 1810) in the Caspian Sea

Identifying the most important independent environmental variables affecting the habitat preferences of marine fish species is very important for a proper and effective fisheries management in marine ecosystems. Classification tree (CT) and support vector machine (SVM) were implemented to examine the habitat preferences of the leaping grey mullet (Chelon saliens) in various sampling locations situated in the southern part of the Caspian Sea. The CT model (with the highest level of pruning) confirmed that the deepest part of the sea may not provide a favourite place to the fish population, while the probability of fish presence may increase with high photosynthetically active radiation (PAR). Based on the model’s decision, increasing the sand percentage (SP) may lead to the decrease of the presence of suitable conditions for the mullet population. The outcomes of SVM model (in terms of the attribute weight) also demonstrated that the deepest part of sea and high SP may restrict the potential area of the fish population. On the contrary, an increase in the amount of PAR, sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level anomaly (SLA) may lead to an increase in the presence of fish. The attribute weight of SVM model also showed that total organic matter (TOM), sediment type, sea surface chlorophyll-a (chla) and benthic biomass had a low contribution to the mullet’s prediction. Both models, thus, identified the most important variables influencing the habitat preferences of the mullet. Determining the key variables influencing the habitat preferences of the fish allows to identify the mullet’s feeding behaviour in the sea. The identified variables can be valuable for evaluating the habitat preferences of the mullet species in other coastal tropical and temperate ecosystems worldwide with similar and comparable ecological patterns as the Caspian Sea.

Extrinsic controls on turbidity fan lobes spatial distribution and potential reservoir presence prediction in half-graben lacustrine basin during early syn-rift: Insights from stratigraphic forward modelling

Turbidite strata are common along faulted margins of half-graben lacustrine basins, but complex lobe evolution may cause significant variability and uncertainty in the spatial distribution of turbidite sand bodies. This study integrates core samples, seismic and well log data from the Dongying Depression lacustrine basin in East China, and uses these data as inputs to a reduced-complexity stratigraphic forward model of turbidite fan lobe evolution. Data-unconstrained sensitivity analysis is used to investigate sensitivity of fan-lobe spatial distribution to fault-related subsidence rate, basin-margin slope, sediment input volume, and sediment input volume oscillation period. A data-constrained multiple-scenario approach then varied parameters within defined uncertainty ranges to generate a series of best-fit models to predict optimal reservoir presence locations. Results indicate that syn-rift segmentation of the Shengbei fault leads to spatial and temporal variation of fault-related subsidence in the hanging wall basin. External controls exert systematic impact on the spatial distribution of both smaller-scale flow beds and larger-scale fans on basin floor. Higher rates of fault-related subsidence and smaller sediment input volume produce more laterally confined fan lobe distribution. Higher basin-margin slope gradient produces more laterally clustered turbidites, but does not change fan lobe location, indicating break of slope is a more significant control on fan location. Multiple scenario reservoir presence probability maps suggest that bypass-dominated middle and inner fan areas, and smaller lengths of retrogradation-dominated feeder channels are most promising reservoir locations.

#5147 PREDICTING NON-DIABETIC KIDNEY DISEASE IN PATIENTS WITH TYPE 2 DIABETES MELLITUS: EXTERNAL VALIDATION OF FOUR PREDICTIVE MODELS

Abstract Background and Aims Several prediction models have been published for estimating the probability of non-diabetic kidney disease in kidney biopsies performed in patients with diabetes mellitus. External validation and comparison of these models is essential prior to their clinical application. The aim of this study was to validate and compare the predictive capacity of four previously described clinical models as a tool to predict non-diabetic kidney disease (NDKD) in diabetic patients. Method We retrospectively reviewed kidney biopsies performed in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus between January 1999 and December 2022 in our centre. The probability of presence of NDKD was calculated by using the clinical and laboratory parameters at the time of the decision to perform a biopsy, according to 4 models; Surinrat's model, Liu's model, Li's model and Garcia-Martin's model (see Table 1). Overall model fit was assessed, calibration curves were plotted and discrimination for each model was assessed by using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve in line with the transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis (TRIPOD) guidelines. Results The study included 280 patients, 68.9% were males and the mean age was 65.4 ± 11.9 years. 172 patients (61.4%) had a diagnosis of non-diabetic kidney disease. On calculating the risk of NDKD, Surinrat's, Li's and Garcia-Martin's models predicted 33.6%, 64.8% and 53.4% of NDKD when using the “probable NDKD” threshold, and 60.7%, 81% and 90.7% respectively when including the “grey zones”. Fleiss’ Kappa test showed a fair agreement between the four models when using the “probable NDKD” threshold (k = 0.23, 95% CI 0.13-0.33, p&amp;lt;0.001) and when including the “grey zones” (k = 0.39, 95% CI 0.29-0.49, p&amp;lt;0.001). On using the “probable NDKD” threshold, the overall accuracy for Surinrat's, Liu's, Li's and Garcia-Martin's models was 50.7%, 62.7%, 63.6% and 65.3% respectively, while on including the “grey zones” the accuracy slightly increased in the first to models to 54.3% and 66.4% respectively while decreasing in Garcia-Martin's model to 64.2%. Area under the ROC curve (AUC) was higher in Garcia-Martin's model (AUC 0.66, 95% CI 0.58-0.74, p&amp;lt;0.001) compared to Lin's model (AUC 0.59, 95% CI 0.50-0.67, p = 0.044), while Surinrat's and Liu's models did not discriminate (AUC 0.55, 95% CI 0.47-0.64, p = 0.214 and AUC 0.58, 95% CI 0.49-0.63, p = 0.084). Conclusion There is a fair agreement between the four models for predicting non-diabetic kidney disease in type 2 diabetic patients. Of the models studied, Garcia-Martin's model most accurately predicted non-diabetic kidney disease in type 2 diabetes patients, although discrimination remained poor. These models may not be suitable for guiding clinicians on indicating a kidney biopsy in diabetic patients in our population.

Yard Age, Cultivar Susceptibility, and Spring Pruning Practices as Risk Factors for Overwintering of Podosphaera macularis on Hop

Hop powdery mildew, caused by Podosphaera macularis, may be initiated by sexual or asexual spores of the pathogen, but only asexual reproduction has been reported in the Pacific Northwest United States. In this region, overwintering is via bud perennation, leading to "flag shoots" the following season. We expanded on previous research and analyzed 766 location-years of flag shoot data from Oregon hop yards collected from 2014 to 2020, examining potential risk factors of yard age, cultivar susceptibility to powdery mildew, pruning method (mechanical means or not), and pruning thoroughness. Bayesian logistic regression models were fitted to estimate the probability of flag shoot presence or absence. We found little evidence to support yard age as a significant risk factor for flag shoot presence, as the 95% credible interval for the parameter associated with yard age was consistently centered around 0 in each of our models. However, cultivar susceptibility to powdery mildew, spring pruning method, and spring pruning thoroughness were associated with increases in the probability of observing a flag shoot. Although yard age was not an important risk factor, there was an interrelationship between yard age, pruning method, and pruning thoroughness that suggests second-year yards may indirectly be at an elevated risk for flag shoot development because these yards are less often pruned using mechanical methods. Our research further identifies yards that are most at risk for overwintering of P. macularis and reinforces the importance of thorough pruning in yards with an elevated risk for possessing a flag shoot. [Formula: see text] The author(s) have dedicated the work to the public domain under the Creative Commons CC0 “No Rights Reserved” license by waiving all of his or her rights to the work worldwide under copyright law, including all related and neighboring rights, to the extent allowed by law, 2023.

HIV, asymptomatic STI, and the rectal mucosal immune environment among young men who have sex with men.

Young men who have sex with men (YMSM) are disproportionately affected by HIV and bacterial sexually transmitted infections (STI) including gonorrhea, chlamydia, and syphilis; yet research into the immunologic effects of these infections is typically pursued in siloes. Here, we employed a syndemic approach to understand potential interactions of these infections on the rectal mucosal immune environment among YMSM. We enrolled YMSM aged 18-29 years with and without HIV and/or asymptomatic bacterial STI and collected blood, rectal secretions, and rectal tissue biopsies. YMSM with HIV were on suppressive antiretroviral therapy (ART) with preserved blood CD4 cell counts. We defined 7 innate and 19 adaptive immune cell subsets by flow cytometry, the rectal mucosal transcriptome by RNAseq, and the rectal mucosal microbiome by 16S rRNA sequencing and examined the effects of HIV and STI and their interactions. We measured tissue HIV RNA viral loads among YMSM with HIV and HIV replication in rectal explant challenge experiments among YMSM without HIV. HIV, but not asymptomatic STI, was associated with profound alterations in the cellular composition of the rectal mucosa. We did not detect a difference in the microbiome composition associated with HIV, but asymptomatic bacterial STI was associated with a higher probability of presence of potentially pathogenic taxa. When examining the rectal mucosal transcriptome, there was evidence of statistical interaction; asymptomatic bacterial STI was associated with upregulation of numerous inflammatory genes and enrichment for immune response pathways among YMSM with HIV, but not YMSM without HIV. Asymptomatic bacterial STI was not associated with differences in tissue HIV RNA viral loads or in HIV replication in explant challenge experiments. Our results suggest that asymptomatic bacterial STI may contribute to inflammation particularly among YMSM with HIV, and that future research should examine potential harms and interventions to reduce the health impact of these syndemic infections.

Brokers in beneficial ownership: A network approach

We investigate beneficial ownership networks from 1999 to 2018 and find the presence of the small-world phenomenon, which fosters the participation of shareholders and public firms in beneficial ownership events. The small-world phenomenon is also associated with the presence of brokers, which are nodes that bridge shareholders with other shareholders and targets. Moreover, the beneficial ownership network is shaped by star nodes, that is, nodes that have many adjacent nodes, most of which are not connected to each other. Although star nodes affect the presence of the small-world phenomenon, there is weak evidence in support of the association of star nodes with the participation of shareholders and public firms in beneficial ownership events or with the probability of brokers' presence. Furthermore, we find that cash-on-hand and firm size seem to have the most significant impact on the probability of brokers' presence in the beneficial ownership network.

A preventive–reactive approach for nurse scheduling considering absenteeism and nurses’ preferences

The nurse scheduling problem (NSP) has become significant in recent years due to its direct impact on patient healthcare. This problem involves assigning nurses’ shifts while fulfilling a set of hard constraints associated with labor regulations and soft constraints related to personal preferences, workload balance, among others. Most studies have focused on providing solutions for deterministic scenarios without considering unexpected disruptions, such as an unscheduled nurse absence. This study integrates two of the most common approaches to address absenteeism: preventive and reactive. First, we propose a multiobjective linear model for staff scheduling that preventively assigns backup nurses for each day. The NSP is known to be an NP-hard problem. Therefore, we used a genetic algorithm to obtain solutions in a reasonable amount of time. To mitigate the effect of unscheduled nurse absences, we propose two reactive rescheduling policies, one that seeks to maintain the baseline schedule and another that prioritizes the exclusive use of backup nurses. We used Montecarlo simulation under different problem settings to compare the proposed policies with a policy that does not use the preventive approach. The probability that a nurse will accept an additional shift to cover an absence was also considered. Simulation results suggest that both of our preventive–reactive policies outperform the non-preventive policy, especially in the presence of a small probability that a nurse will accept an additional shift. Finally, we used the proposed policies to create the monthly nursing schedule in a reference hospital in Bogotá-Colombia.

The evolution of lexical semantics dynamics, directionality, and drift

IntroductionThe directionality of semantic change is problematic in traditional comparative models of language reconstruction. Compared to, e.g., phonological and morphological change, the directions of meaning change over time are potentially endless and difficult to reconstruct. The current paper attempts to reconstruct the mechanisms of lexical meaning change by a quantitative model. We use a data set of 104 core concepts in 160 Eurasian languages from several families, which are coded for colexification as well as cognacy, including semantic change of lexemes in etymologies. In addition, the various meanings are coded for semantic relation to the core concept, including relations such as metaphor, metonymy, generalization, specialization, holonymy, and meronymy. Further, concepts are coded into classes and semantic properties, including factors such as animacy, count/mass, concrete/abstract, or cultural connotations, such as taboo/non-taboo.MethodologyWe use a phylogenetic comparative model to reconstruct the probability of presence at hidden nodes of different colexifying meanings inside etymological trees. We find that these reconstructions come close to meaning reconstructions based on the comparative method. By means of the phylogenetic reconstructions, we measure the evolutionary dynamics of meaning loss of co-lexifying meanings as well as concepts.Results and discussionThese change rates are highly varying, from almost complete stability to complete unstability. Change rates vary between different semantic classes, where for instance wild animals have low change rates and domestic animals and implements have high change rates. We find a negative correlation between taboo animals and change rate, i.e., taboo animals have lower change rates than non-taboo words. Further, we find a negative correlation between animacy and change rate, indicating that animate nouns have lower change rate than inanimate nouns. A further result is a negative correlation between change rate and degree of borrowing (borrowability) of concepts, indicating that lexemes that are more likely to be borrowed are less likely to change semantically. Among semantic relations, we find that metonomy is more frequent than any other change, including metaphor, and that a change from general to more specific is in all cases more frequent than the other way round.

Perch selection of three species of kingfishers at the Pantanal of Brazil

Selecting a suitable perch can offer many benefits for fish–eating birds such as kingfishers. However, factors affecting perch selection in these species remain poorly studied. We studied perch selection in three species of kingfishers inhabiting the Pantanal of Brazil during the dry season: Megaceryle torquata, Chloroceryle amazon, and Chloroceryle americana. First,we determined the habitat use of the three species. We then assessed the perches these kingfishers used based on four ecologically relevant traits: (1) artificial or natural, (2) perch height, (3) distance to the water, and (4) plant cover. We hypothesized that artificial perches could be more likely selected as they may offer better visibility to fish. We used a resource selection function (RSF), in a case/control design, solving it by model selection of six conditional logistic regression competing models. The probability of presence was independent of the artificial origin of a perch for the three species. It was also independent of the other studied variables, except for individuals of C. amazona, which selected higher perches. We conclude that artificial perches do not influence perch selection of the studied kingfishers, which may indicate that these artificial structures are not altering their behavioral choices.

Evaluating the robustness of nature-based solutions: future resilience of sedum-based soft capping as a conservation approach for heritage sites in Britain and Ireland

ABSTRACT Nature-based solutions are seen to benefit both society and biodiversity. However, research into their future resilience is required. Soft capping is a nature-based conservation strategy that mimics the natural colonisation of plants on top of ruined walls and reduces rates of material deterioration. To remain effective, soft capping species must be tolerant of future climatic conditions. We use the Maxent species distribution model to assess the resilience of soft capping species to low and high emission scenarios across Britain and Ireland. We assess the mid- and end-century presence probability of four native and archaeophyte species used in soft capping (Sedum album, S. acre, S. anglicum and Saxifraga granulata). Future presence probabilities were calculated using the climate models HadGEM3-GC31-LL, IPSL-CM6A-LR and MIROC6. Results suggest that current sedum-based soft caps will remain viable until mid-century with additional maintenance (e.g. watering) during droughts, although soft caps predominantly formed of Sedum album may be prone to failure in south-eastern England. In the future, species more resilient to arid conditions may need to be preferentially selected for soft capping to ensure resilience under a warming climate. Species distribution modelling provides a useful way of predicting the future resilience of nature-based solutions.

Influence of Parameters in SDM Application on Citrus Presence in Mediterranean Area

Within the context of Agriculture 4.0, the importance of predicting species distribution is increasing due to climatic change. The use of predictive species distribution models represents an essential tool for land planning and resource conservation. However, studies in the literature on Suitability Distribution Models (SDMs) under specific conditions are required to optimize the model accuracy in a specific context through map inspection and sensitivity analyses. The aim of this study was to optimize the simulation of the citrus distribution probability in a Mediterranean area based on presence data and a random background sample, in relation to several predictors. It was hypothesized that different parameter settings affected the SDM. The objectives were to compare different parameter settings and assess the effect of the number of input points related to species presence. Simulation of citrus occurrence was based on five algorithms: Boosted Regression Tree (BRT), Generalized Linear Model (GLM), Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt), and Random Forest (RF). The predictors were categorized based on 19 bioclimatic variables, terrain elevation (represented by a Digital Terrain Model), soil physical properties, and irrigation. Sensitivity analysis was carried out by (a) modifying the values of the main models’ parameters; and (b) reducing the input presence points. Fine-tuning the parameters for each model according to the literature in the field produced variations in the selection of predictors. Consequently, probability changed in the maps and values of the accuracy measures modified. Results obtained by using refined parameters showed a reduced overfitting for BRT, yet associated with a decrease in the AUC value from 0.91 to 0.81; minor variations in AUC for GLM (equal to about 0.85) and MARS (about 0.83); a slight AUC reduction for MaxEnt (from 0.86 to 0.85); a slight AUC increase for RF (from 0.88 to 0.89). The reduction in presence points produced a decrease in the surface area for citrus probability of presence in all the models. Therefore, for the case study analyzed, it is suggested to keep input presence points above 250. In these simulations, we also analyzed which covariates and related ranges contributed most to the predicted value of citrus presence, for this case study, for different amounts of input presence points. In RF simulations, for 250 points, isothermality was one of the major predictors of citrus probability of presence (up to 0.8), while at increasing of the input points the contribution of the covariates was more uniform (0.4–0.6) in their range of variation.

Enhancing the reactivity, electronic, linear and non-linear optical properties of C45H15-like carbon nanocone doped with titanium dioxide, boron, and nitrogen: DFT and TD-DFT study

The density functional theory (DFT) levels B3LYP, B3PW91 and CAM-B3LYP/6–31+G(d) were used to systematically evaluate the reactivity, electronic, linear and non-linear optical (NLO) properties of the titanium dioxide, boron and nitrogen-doping C45H15-like carbon nanocone. Due to this doping, the |HOMO-LUMO| energy gap of the initial carbon nanocone (CO) has narrowed considerably and some values of the |HOMO-LUMO| gap energy of the derivatives formed are lower than 1 eV. This result shows that some of the derivatives may be used as suitable semiconductor materials and others as highly demanded-superconducting materials in the electronics industry. In addition, all these studied derivatives showed a red-shifted absorption maximum, however only the obtained derivative by substituting both five carbon atoms with five nitrogen atoms and ten carbon atoms with ten boron atoms (N5B10) exhibits the highest absorption capacity in the visible range, implying that the latter could be a promising candidate in photovoltaic devices. Finally, the first-order hyperpolarizability values of all the formed derivatives are largely superior to that of the pure carbon nanocone (CO) and also to that of the reference compound para-nitroaniline (p-NA), which leads us to say that these formed derivatives may be suitable candidates for NLO applications. Also, according to our investigations, the boron and nitrogen atom arrangements established within our studied carbon nanocone predict exothermic reactions in contrast to the data collected in the literature that predict endothermic reactions. Furthermore, with respect to dopant enhancements to our studied carbon nanocone, it should be noted that the simultaneous manipulation of the boron and nitrogen heteroatoms with a higher probability of boron presence than nitrogen offers new opportunities to improve the overall C5n 2H5n carbon nanocone properties with n ≥ 3.

Aquatic species shows asymmetric distribution range shifts in native and non-native areas

IntroductionClimate change is reshaping the geographical distribution of species across the globe. In marine ecosystems, climate change creates novel challenges to an environment impacted by numerous anthropogenic stressors. Forecasting shifts in species distribution, including the expansion of non-indigenous species under climate change scenarios, is a management challenge for today’s world.MethodsWe applied Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART) models to investigate the environmental factors modulating the occurrence and habitat preferences of the Atlantic blue crab Callinectes sapidus Rathbun, 1896 in native and non-native areas. With BART models, we also aimed to predict its current and future distributions under two climate change scenarios (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). BART models were performed using global occurrences of the Atlantic blue crab – recorded from 1830 to 2022 – and several environmental covariates (i.e., water temperature, salinity, current velocity, and rugosity). Model accuracy was assessed with the Area Under the Curve (AUC) and True Skill Statistics (TSS) criteria. Cross-validation experiments were made to balance accuracy prediction and uncertainty model prediction intervals.Results and discussionAUC and TSS values indicated that data validation was successful for the BART model. Water temperature was the most critical variable affecting the presence probability of the Atlantic blue crab. The BART model predicts asymmetric distribution range shifts on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean. The non-native populations will experience broader shifts in their distribution range than in the native range, and the RCP 8.5 scenario model outputs predict a wider distribution range by the end of the century. Overall, we anticipate significant ecological changes in native and non-native areas. The range expansion in native areas is often equivalent to the ecological shifts induced by invasive species, so lessons learned by ecologists and managers in non-native areas will provide actionable insights to managers in native areas.

A Probabilistic Propagation Graph Modeling Method for Channel Characterization in Dense Urban Environments

With the rapid development of mobile broadband communications such as the “fifth generation (5G)” systems, accurate and efficient simulation-based channel modeling becomes more essential for propagation channel characterization in the complicated environments. In the previous works, the so-called “propagation-graph-based channel modeling” method has been introduced and effectively applied to the simulation of channel characteristics. Compared with the conventional ray-tracing-based approaches, the graph-based modeling may significantly reduce the computational complexity. In this contribution, without increasing computational complexity, the graph-based channel modeling method is proposed for channel characterization in the dense urban environments with the following improvements, i.e. realistic geometry-assisted scattering point placement, scattering coefficient definition, and line-of-sight (LoS) path presence probability settings. By comparing the simulated channel characteristics with those obtained in the real measurements in two urban scenarios, the proposed improvements are demonstrated in predicting channel characteristics more accurately.

Diagnostic accuracy of state-of-the-art rectal MRI sequences for the diagnosis of extramural vascular invasion in locally advanced rectal cancer after preoperative chemoradiotherapy: dos or maybes?

The aim of this study was to determine the accuracy of three state-of-the-art MRI sequences for the detection of extramural venous invasion (EMVI) in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) patients after preoperative chemoradiotherapy (pCRT). This retrospective study included 103 patients (median age 66years old [43-84]) surgically treated with pCRT for LARC and submitted to preoperative contrast-enhanced pelvic MRI after pCRT. T2-weighted, DWI, and contrast-enhanced sequences were evaluated by two radiologists with expertise in abdominal imaging, blinded to clinical and histopathological data. Patients were scored according to the probability of EMVI presence on each sequence using a grading score ranging from 0 (no evidence of EMVI) to 4 (strong evidence of EMVI). Results from 0 to 2 were ranked as EMVI negative and from 3 to 4 as EMVI positive. ROC curves were drawn for each technique, using histopathological results as reference standard. T2-weighted, DWI, and contrast-enhanced sequences demonstrated an area under the ROC curve (AUC) respectively of 0.610 (95% CI: 0.509-0.704), 0.729 (95% CI: 0.633-0.812), and 0.624 (95% CI: 0.523-0.718). The AUC of DWI sequence was significantly higher than that of T2-weighted (p = 0.0494) and contrast-enhanced (p = 0.0315) sequences. DWI is more accurate than T2-weighted and contrast-enhanced sequences for the identification of EMVI following pCRT in LARC patients. MRI protocol for restaging locally advanced rectal cancer after preoperative chemoradiotherapy should routinely include DWI due to its higher accuracy for the diagnosis of extramural venous invasion compared to high-resolution T2-weighted and contrast-enhanced T1-weighted sequences. • MRI has a moderately high accuracy for the diagnosis of extramural venous invasion in locally advanced rectal cancer after preoperative chemoradiotherapy. • DWI is more accurate than T2-weighted and contrast-enhanced T1-weighted sequences in the detection of extramural venous invasion after preoperative chemoradiotherapy of locally advanced rectal cancer. • DWI should be routinely included in the MRI protocol for restaging locally advanced rectal cancer after preoperative chemoradiotherapy.