Extrinsic controls on turbidity fan lobes spatial distribution and potential reservoir presence prediction in half-graben lacustrine basin during early syn-rift: Insights from stratigraphic forward modelling

Abstract

Turbidite strata are common along faulted margins of half-graben lacustrine basins, but complex lobe evolution may cause significant variability and uncertainty in the spatial distribution of turbidite sand bodies. This study integrates core samples, seismic and well log data from the Dongying Depression lacustrine basin in East China, and uses these data as inputs to a reduced-complexity stratigraphic forward model of turbidite fan lobe evolution. Data-unconstrained sensitivity analysis is used to investigate sensitivity of fan-lobe spatial distribution to fault-related subsidence rate, basin-margin slope, sediment input volume, and sediment input volume oscillation period. A data-constrained multiple-scenario approach then varied parameters within defined uncertainty ranges to generate a series of best-fit models to predict optimal reservoir presence locations. Results indicate that syn-rift segmentation of the Shengbei fault leads to spatial and temporal variation of fault-related subsidence in the hanging wall basin. External controls exert systematic impact on the spatial distribution of both smaller-scale flow beds and larger-scale fans on basin floor. Higher rates of fault-related subsidence and smaller sediment input volume produce more laterally confined fan lobe distribution. Higher basin-margin slope gradient produces more laterally clustered turbidites, but does not change fan lobe location, indicating break of slope is a more significant control on fan location. Multiple scenario reservoir presence probability maps suggest that bypass-dominated middle and inner fan areas, and smaller lengths of retrogradation-dominated feeder channels are most promising reservoir locations.