Probability Of Outcome Research Articles

Health State Utilities and Cost-Effectiveness Economic Evaluation for Treatment of a Symptomatic Accessory Navicular.

Treatment strategies for a symptomatic accessory navicular include both operative and nonoperative approaches. The primary aim of this study is to define health utility values for 7 health states experienced by those with a symptomatic accessory navicular who undergo operative and/or nonoperative treatment. Secondarily, the study incorporates the health utility values with treatment costs, probabilities of various outcomes, and duration of health states into a cost-effectiveness model comparing the nonoperative treatment protocol at our institution vs surgical excision. Institutional review board approval was obtained to call parents of patients 10-20 years old at the time of interview who were evaluated for a symptomatic accessory navicular from February 1, 2016, to March 2, 2023, at a single institution by one of 4 pediatric orthopaedic surgeons. Participants were asked to rate 7 health states from 0 to 100, with 0 representing death (if 18 years or older) or the worst health imaginable (if under 18 years) and 100 representing perfect health. Using published values for the probabilities of various treatment outcomes, time spent in various health states, and Medicare costs from the perspective of the payor and society, a decision analysis was constructed. Health utility values for 7 health states were obtained. Operative treatment was preferred to nonoperative treatment in the base case model. Surgery was more expensive ($16 825) than nonoperative treatment ($7486). Using a willingness-to-pay threshold of <$50 000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY), surgery was cost-effective compared to nonoperative treatment with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $20 303/QALY. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the only variable that indicated a preference for nonoperative treatment is a 71% likelihood of nonoperative treatment resolving the condition. Unless a physician suspects at least a 71% chance of a symptomatic accessory navicular resolving without operative treatment, surgical excision is recommended from a cost-effectiveness perspective.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis treatment outcomes in 49 high burden countries

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic disrupted tuberculosis (TB) health services, including treatment support and access to drugs, as patients were not able to access health facilities. While the effect of this disruption on treatment outcomes has been studied in isolated treatment centres, cities and provinces, the impact of the pandemic on TB treatment outcomes at a country and regional level has not been evaluated.MethodsWe used treatment outcomes for new and relapse TB cases reported to the World Health Organization (WHO) from 49 high TB, TB/HIV and drug-resistant TB burden countries from 2012 to 2019. We developed multinomial logistic regression models for trends in TB treatment success, failure, death and loss to follow up. We predicted TB treatment outcomes for 2020 and 2021, comparing these to observations, by computing ratios between observed and predicted probabilities. We aggregated these risk ratios (RR) for six WHO-defined regions using random-effects meta-analysis.ResultsAcross 49 countries and four TB treatment outcomes, 17 (out of 196) country-outcome pairs in 2020 and 21 in 2021 had evidence of systematic differences between observed and predicted TB treatment outcome probabilities. Regionally, only four (out of 24) region-outcome pairs had evidence of systematic differences in 2020 and four in 2021, where the European region accounted for four of these in total. Globally, there was evidence of systematic differences in treatment failure in both 2020 (RR: 1.14, 95%CI: 1.01–1.28, p = 0.0381) and 2021 (RR: 1.36, 95%CI: 1.03–1.78, p = 0.0277), deaths in 2020 (RR: 1.08, 95%CI: 1.03–1.13, p = 0.0010) and losses to follow up in 2020 (RR: 0.91, 95%CI: 0.86–0.97, p = 0.0059).ConclusionsWhile for some countries and regions there were significant differences between observed and predicted treatment outcomes probabilities, there was insufficient evidence globally to identify systematic differences between observed and expected TB treatment outcome probabilities because of COVID-19-associated disruptions in general. However, larger numbers of treatment failures and deaths on treatment than expected were observed globally, suggesting a need for further investigation.

A Simple Scoring System for Identifying Favorable Neurologic Outcomes Among Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest Patients With Asystole

Study objectiveAsystole is the most common initial rhythm in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA), but indicates a low likelihood of neurological recovery. This study aimed to develop a novel scoring system to be easily applied at the time of emergency department arrival for identifying favorable neurological outcomes in OHCA survivors with an asystole rhythm. MethodsThis study is a secondary analysis based on a previously collected nationwide database, targeting non-traumatic adult OHCA patients aged ≥ 18 years with an asystole rhythm who achieved Return of Spontaneous Circulation (ROSC) between January 2016 and December 2020. The primary outcome was a favorable neurological outcome defined as Cerebral Performance Categories scores of 1 or 2 at hospital discharge. A prediction model was developed through multivariable logistic regression analysis in a derivation cohort in the form of a scoring system (WBC-ASystole). The performance and calibration of the model were tested using an internal validation cohort. ResultsAmong 19,803 OHCA patients with survival to hospital admission, 6,322 had asystole, and 285 (4.5%) achieved good neurological outcomes. Factors associated with favorable outcomes included age, witness arrest, bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation, time from call to hospital arrival, and prehospital ROSC achievement. The WBC-ASystole score, totaling 11 points, exhibited a predictive performance with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.80 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.76–0.83) and 0.79 (95% CI: 0.74–0.83) in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. After categorizing patients into three groups based on probability for good neurological outcomes, the sensitivity and specificity were as follows: 0.98 (95% CI: 0.97–0.99) and 0.09 (95% CI: 0.09–0.10) for the very low (WBC-ASystole: ≤2), 0.85 (95% CI: 0.82–0.89) and 0.54 (95% CI: 0.53–0.55) for the low (WBC-ASystole: 3–4), and 0.36 (95% CI: 0.34–0.39) and 0.93 (95% CI: 0.92–0.93) for fair predicted probability group (WBC-ASystole: ≥5). ConclusionsAlthough external validation studies must be performed, among OHCA with asystole, the WBC-ASystole scoring system may identify those patients who are likely to have a favorable neurological outcome.

Validation of a model for outcome prediction after endovascular treatment for ischemic stroke.

The recently developed MR-PREDICTS@24 h model showed excellent performance in the MR-CLEAN Registry cohort in patients presenting within 12 h from onset. However, its applicability to an U.S. population and to patients presenting beyond 12 h from last known normal are still undetermined. We aim to externally validate the MR-PREDICTS@24 h model in a new geographic setting and in the late window. In this retrospective analysis of a prospectively collected database from a comprehensive stroke center in the United States, we included patients with intracranial carotid artery or middle cerebral artery M1 or M2 segment occlusions who underwent endovascular therapy and applied the MR-PREDICTS@24 h formula to estimate the probabilities of functional outcome at day 90. The primary endpoint was the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) at 90 days. We included 1246 patients, 879 in the early (<12 h) and 367 in the late (≥12 h) cohort. For both cohorts, calibration and discrimination of the model were accurate throughout mRS levels, with absolute differences between estimated and predicted proportions ranging from 1% to 5%. Calibration metrics and curve inspections showed good performance for estimating the probabilities of mRS ≤ 1 to mRS ≤ 5 for the early cohort. For the late cohort, predictions were reliable for the probabilities of mRS ≤ 1 to mRS ≤ 4. The MR-PREDICTS@24 h was transferrable to a real-world U.S.-based cohort in the early window and showed consistently accurate predictions for patients presenting in the late window without need for updating.

A novel combined nomogram for predicting severe acute lower respiratory tract infection in children hospitalized for RSV infection during the post-COVID-19 period.

Off-season upsurge of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection with changed characteristics and heightened clinical severity during the post-COVID-19 era are raising serious concerns. This study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram for predicting the risk of severe acute lower respiratory tract infection (SALRTI) in children hospitalized for RSV infection during the post-COVID-19 era using machine learning techniques. A multicenter retrospective study was performed in nine tertiary hospitals in Yunnan, China, enrolling children hospitalized for RSV infection at seven of the nine participating hospitals during January-December 2023 into the development dataset. Thirty-nine variables covering demographic, clinical, and laboratory characteristics were collected. Primary screening and dimension reduction of data were performed using Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression, followed by identification of independent risk factors for RSV-associated SALRTI using Logistic regression, thus finally establishing a predictive nomogram model. Performance of the nomogram was internally evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) based on the development dataset. External validation of our model was conducted using same methods based on two independent RSV cohorts comprising pediatric RSV inpatients from another two participating hospitals between January-March 2024. The development dataset included 1102 patients, 239 (21.7%) of whom developed SALRTI; while the external validation dataset included 249 patients (142 in Lincang subset and 107 in Dali subset), 58 (23.3%) of whom were diagnosed as SALRTI. Nine variables, including age, preterm birth, underlying condition, seizures, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), interleukin-6 (IL-6), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), D-dimer, and co-infection, were eventually confirmed as the independent risk factors of RSV-associated SALRTI. A predictive nomogram was established via integrating these nine predictors. In both internal and external validations, ROC curves indicated that the nomogram had satisfactory discrimination ability, calibration curves demonstrated good agreement between the nomogram-predicted and observed probabilities of outcome, and DCA showed that the nomogram possessed favorable clinical application potential. A novel nomogram combining several common clinical and inflammatory indicators was successfully developed to predict RSV-associated SALRTI. Good performance and clinical effectiveness of this model were confirmed by internal and external validations.

A new, simplified endoscopic scoring system for predicting clinical outcome in gastric low-grade intraepithelial neoplasia: the “e-cout system”

Background and ObjectivesThe clinical outcomes of gastric low-grade intraepithelial neoplasia (LGIN) exhibit significant diversity, and the current reliance on endoscopic biopsy for diagnosis poses limitations in devising appropriate treatment strategies for this disease. This study aims to establish a prognostic prediction scoring system (e-Cout system) for gastric LGIN, offering a theoretical foundation for solving this clinical challenge. MethodsRetrospectively selecting 1013 cases meeting the inclusion and exclusion criteria from over 300,000 cases of upper gastrointestinal endoscopy performed at the Digestive Endoscopy Center of our hospital between 2000 and 2022, the cohort included 484 cases as development cohort and 529 cases for validation. Employing relevant statistical analysis, we used development cohort data to establish the e-Cout system for gastric LGIN, and further used validation cohort data to for internal validation. ResultsIn the developmental stage, based on accordant regression coefficients, we assigned point values to six risk factors for poor prognosis: 4 points for microvessel (MV) distortion, 3 points for MV thickening, 2 points for ulcer, and 1 point each for lesion size > 2cm, disease duration > 1 year, and hyperemia and redness on the lesion surface. Patients were then categorized into four risk levels: low risk (0-1 point), medium risk (2-3), high risk (4-6), and very high risk (≥7). During the validation stage, significant differences in the three different outcomes of gastric LGIN were observed across all risk levels. The probability of reversal and progression showed a significant decrease and increase, respectively, with escalating of risk levels, and these differences were statistically significant (P< 0.001). ConclusionsThe proposed e-Cout system holds promise in aiding clinicians to predict the probability and risk levels of different clinical outcomes in patients with gastric LGIN. This system is expected to provide an improved foundation and guidance for the selection of clinical strategies for this disease.

Entropy-Based Strategies for Multi-Bracket Pools.

Much work in the parimutuel betting literature has discussed estimating event outcome probabilities or developing optimal wagering strategies, particularly for horse race betting. Some betting pools, however, involve betting not just on a single event, but on a tuple of events. For example, pick six betting in horse racing, March Madness bracket challenges, and predicting a randomly drawn bitstring each involve making a series of individual forecasts. Although traditional optimal wagering strategies work well when the size of the tuple is very small (e.g., betting on the winner of a horse race), they are intractable for more general betting pools in higher dimensions (e.g., March Madness bracket challenges). Hence we pose the multi-brackets problem: supposing we wish to predict a tuple of events and that we know the true probabilities of each potential outcome of each event, what is the best way to tractably generate a set of n predicted tuples? The most general version of this problem is extremely difficult, so we begin with a simpler setting. In particular, we generate n independent predicted tuples according to a distribution having optimal entropy. This entropy-based approach is tractable, scalable, and performs well.

An Innovative Approach in Emergency Medicine: Monitoring Brain Oxygenation with Cerebral Oximetry

The monitoring of cerebral oxygenation is a method that is not commonly integrated into the majority of existing emergency departments(ED), but it has attracted increasing attention, particularly in recent years. As the severity of ischemia escalates during cardiopulmonary resuscitation(CPR), the probability of both survival and favorable neurological outcomes diminishes. Therefore, the imperative development of methods to quantify the magnitude of ischemia, particularly cerebral ischemia, during resuscitation is critical for enhancing overall outcomes. Cerebral oximetry, using near-infrared spectroscopy, represents a noninvasive method for measuring brain oxygenation. The objective of this manuscript is to present an overview of the application of cerebral oximetry in the ED.

CLEAR Thrombectomy Score: An Index to Estimate the Probability of Good Functional Outcome With or Without Endovascular Treatment in the Late Window for Anterior Circulation Occlusion.

With the expanding eligibility for endovascular therapy (EVT) of patients presenting in the late window (6-24 hours after last known well), we aimed to derive a score to predict favorable outcomes associated with EVT versus best medical management. A multinational observational cohort of patients from the CLEAR (Computed Tomography for Late Endovascular Reperfusion) study with proximal intracranial occlusion (2014-2022) was queried (n=58 sites). Logistic regression analyses were used to derive a 9-point score for predicting good functional outcome (modified Rankin Scale score 0-2 or return to premorbid modified Rankin Scale score) at 90 days, with sensitivity analyses for prespecified subgroups conducted using bootstrapped random forest regressions. Secondary outcomes included 90-day functional independence (modified Rankin Scale score 0-2), poor outcome (modified Rankin Scale score 5-6), and 90-day survival. The score was externally validated with a single-center cohort (2014-2023). Of the 3231 included patients (n=2499 EVT), a 9-point score included age, early computed tomography ischemic changes, and stroke severity, with higher points indicating a higher probability of a good functional outcome. The areas under the curve for the primary outcome among EVT and best medical management subgroups were 0.72 (95% CI, 0.70-0.74) and 0.87 (95% CI, 0.84-0.90), respectively, with similar performance in the external validation cohort (area under the curve, 0.71 [95% CI, 0.66-0.76]). There was a significant interaction between the score and EVT for good functional outcome, functional independence, and poor outcome (all Pinteraction<0.001), with greater benefit favoring patients with lower and midrange scores. This score is a pragmatic tool that can estimate the probability of a good outcome with EVT in the late window. URL: https://www.Clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT04096248.

The effect of the US Child Tax Credit advance payments in 2021 on adolescent mental health: Changes in depression symptoms and suicidality

ObjectiveChild poverty is associated with poor adolescent mental health. Changes to the Child Tax Credit (CTC) in 2021 in the U.S. were historic and introduced a new model of distributing the credit in advance of tax filing, providing families with stable, supplemental monthly income. This policy shift offers a unique opportunity to examine the mental health effects for adolescents. MethodsWe use electronic health record data from a large pediatric primary care network in Columbus, Ohio, which collected adolescent depression screening scores in real time as the CTC advance payments were introduced. We utilized differences in age of eligibility for the CTC to examine the changes in the probability of depression screening outcomes (positive depression screen, any depression symptom, any suicidal ideation), for adolescents eligible for the credit (turned 18 first quarter of 2022), relative to those not eligible (turned 18 last quarter of 2021) (n = 1,423). ResultsWe did not observe a significant association between the policy change and study outcomes in the overall sample. However, the percentage of adolescents with a positive depression screen significantly declined for Non-Hispanic Black (13.4 percentage point reduction, p = 0.01) and publicly insured (9.7 percentage point reduction, p = 0.04) adolescents. ConclusionsOur findings suggest reductions in depression symptoms for subgroups of adolescents who were age-eligible for the CTC compared to their counterparts who were not eligible. The CTC advance payments were a brief experiment in universal basic income and may offer a policy solution for addressing both poverty and a growing adolescent mental health crisis.

Assessing the impact of three biosphere reserves on the conservation of coastal ecosystems

Biosphere Reserves (BR) manage large territories with diverse natural covers and land uses to preserve biodiversity, promote local development and preserve ecosystems. This study evaluated how their zoning (buffer and core) and policy timeframes (decree period, management plan period, and land planning period) influence four landscape management outcomes: deforestation, natural cover recovery, and anthropic and natural permanence. For three Mexican BR case studies, land use and cover transitions were calculated and compared to contrafactual sites. Observed rates of land cover change were marginal within all three BR zoning and across their policy timeframe (<0.02 % change rate), suggesting that BR effectively promote the permanence of both natural and anthropic covers. Nevertheless, the predicted probability of uncommon deforestation and recovery outcomes at local levels showed that the effect of a BR over its regulated landscape is not spatiotemporally static, contrasting the effect of individual allocation vs a group or network. Poverty, land tenure, agriculture aptitude and distance to markets adds to this dynamic and is modelled and discussed. This study shows that BR zoning schemes and its regulatory sequence influence the rates of land cover change and the predicted probability of landscape management outcomes across space and time.

Predictors of the effectiveness of initial therapy with antimuscarinic agents in children with neurogenic urination disorders

BACKGROUND: Almost a third of patients with neurogenic urinary disorders have a refractory nature to therapy with antimuscarinic agents. The aim of the current trial was to identify predictors of the effectiveness of initial therapy with antimuscarinic agents in children with neurogenic urination disorders. For this, a comprehensive analysis of clinical parameters and video urodynamic findings in children was made. AIM: The purpose of this study was to identify predictors of the successful initial therapy with M-anticholinergic preparations in children with neurogenic urinary disorders. For this, results of a comprehensive analysis of initial clinical and video urodynamic parameters were used.. METHODS: A prospective longitudinal cohort study involved 62 patients, aged 1.8–18 years, with neurogenic urination. In addition to the standard examination, all patients underwent a video urodynamic examination at Laborite Delphis UDS-600 device with parallel cystography at Siemens X-ray C-arc (Siemens, Germany). By the obtained results, 52 out of 62 patients were prescribed antimuscarinic agents as the first line therapy. Therapy effectiveness was assessed in 3 months. Analysed parameters were age, presence/absence of self-catheterization, as well as presence/absence of vesicoureteral reflux (VUR) revealed at conventional retrograde urethrocystography and/or video urodynamic examination. RESULTS: The multivariate regression analysis demonstrated that the risk of ineffective antimuscarinic therapy increases by 75,6% in patients with VUR revealed at retrograde uretrocystography, regardless of patient's age and self-catheterization (OR=0.244; 95% CI=0.063-0.937; p=0.040) and by 89.8% (OR=0.102; 95% CI=0.019-0.554; p=0.008) when VUR is detected at video urodynamic examination. Unlike patients with a positive effect (n=24; 50%), 24 patients (50%) who had no response to antimuscarinic therapy were younger (median age 8 years); they also were self-catheterized and had VUR revealed at video urodynamic examination. Outcomes of the prescribed therapy were not associated with other video urodynamic parameters. The identified significant predictors (age, self-catheterization and VUR at video urodynamic examination) have allowed to develop a model for predicting antimuscarinic therapy effectiveness before its administration. This model can promote a rational selection of patients for antimuscarinic therapy, as the first line therapy, with a high probability of positive outcome in 84.9% of patients. CONCLUSION: When prescribing antimuscarinic agents, patient's age, self-catheterization, VUR revealed at retrograde urethrocystography and video urodynamic examination should be taken into account. Predictors of effective antimuscarinic therapy in children with neurogenic urinary disorders, which increase the likelihood of successful outcomes, are patient's age (over 12 years), no self-catheterization and no VUR at video urodynamic examination. Patients younger than 12 years, with self-catheterization and VUR are less likely to respond to antimuscarinic therapy.

Wind speed multi-step prediction based on the comparison of wind characteristics and error correction: Focusing on periodic thermally-developed winds

To leverage the abundant wind energy resources available in mountainous regions, an increasing number of wind power facilities and associated transportation infrastructure are being constructed in these areas. There are different types of intense winds in mountainous areas and the non-linear characteristics of the different intense winds vary significantly. The periodic thermally-developed winds are the commonly occurring type of intense wind. Based on the comparison of wind characteristics, this research proposes a prediction model for the periodic thermally-developed winds. The research utilizes the Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory model(Bi-LSTM), which has been optimized by the Bayesian optimization(BO), to predict wind speed. Based on the relationship between wind field characteristics in periodic thermally-developed winds, a regression correction module is proposed using a joint probability model. Additionally, to address the volatility and uncertainty of wind speed, a Gaussian mixture model is employed for probability prediction. The experimental results demonstrate several findings: 1. The BO-Bi-LSTM model accurately and reliably predicts multi-step results for periodic thermally-developed winds in mountainous areas. 2. The proposed correction module, when combined with other models, yields improved wind speed accuracy compared to the uncorrected values. 3. The Gaussian mixture model produces probabilistic prediction results that consider both interval coverage and interval bandwidth simultaneously. 4. The proposed model can successfully predict periodic thermally-developed winds in mountainous areas for practical engineering purposes, resulting in reliable probabilistic prediction outcomes. It is of great significance for the utilization of wind energy resources and the driving safety of vehicles on ancillary structures.

Promoting Adolescent Safer Gambling Through Self-Referent Counterfactual Thinking and Knowledge of Probabilistic Outcome.

Research have continued to advocate for various safer gambling strategies (SGs) to curb initiation and sustenance of problem gambling through the conceptualization and development of SG tools. The present study aims to extend this advocacy by examining cognitive processes that promote adolescent responsible gambling (RG) in Nigeria. Young adolescents (N = 962, Mage =16.06, SD = 4.12) recruited from a high school population responded to measures of self-referent counterfactual thinking (S-RCFT), knowledge of probabilistic outcomes (KPO), and RG. Hayes PROCESS macro analysis result showed that S-RCFTs and KPO were positively associated with RG. More importantly, it was revealed that KPO amplified the S-RCFT-RG link and provided a plausible pathway to understanding the effect of S-RCFT on RG. This calls for SG advocacies to encourage adolescent gamblers to hold themselves responsible for responsible gambling, and to understand that gambling wins randomly occur. The limitations of the study and recommendations are highlighted.

Does correlation matter in probability matching? A laboratory investigation

Probability Matching, a classical violation of expected utility maximization, refers to people's tendency to randomize, or even match their choice frequency to the outcome probability, when choosing over binary lotteries that differ only in their probabilities. Why? I present an experiment designed to distinguish between several broad classes of explanations: (1) models of Correlation-Invariant Stochastic Choice — randomizing due to factors orthogonal to the correlation between lotteries, such as non-standard preferences or errors, and (2) models of Correlation-Sensitive Stochastic Choice — deliberately randomizing due to misperceived hedging opportunities, especially when lotteries are negatively correlated. My experimental design differentiates between their testable predictions by varying the correlation between lottery outcomes. The findings indicate that the first class, despite being home to most existing theories, has limited explanatory power. Using additional treatment, I rule out Similarity Heuristics as a competing explanation with the second class. The results indicate that a vast majority of individuals deliberately randomize due to misperceived hedging opportunities.

Primary hyperparathyroidism in pregnancy after in vitro fertilization

Primary hyperparathyroidism (PHPT) in pregnant women is a rare condition, often remaining undiagnosed due to non-specific clinical symptoms. However, it can lead to life-threatening complications for both the mother and fetus. In vitro fertilization (IVF) is also associated with an increased probability of adverse outcomes compared to the general population. Timely diagnostics and personalized treatment, taking into account the extremely high risk of complications if PHPT and pregnancy result from IVF, require attention of healthcare professionals and formation of a multidisciplinary team.

Factors affecting the course and prognosis of implant-associated infection caused by &lt;i&gt;Klebsiella&lt;/i&gt; spp.

Background. The outcome of complex treatment of implant-associated infection (IAI) depends on various factors, but one of the most important is the etiology of the inflammatory process. Treatment of orthopedic infection caused by Gram-negative microorganisms in general and representatives of the family Enterobacteriaceae in particular causes many difficulties, one of which is the rapid growth of antibiotic resistance. Aim of the study — to evaluate the factors affecting the course and prognosis of implant-associated infection caused by Klebsiella spp. Methods. We performed a retrospective analysis of case histories of 85 patients who underwent treatment of IAI caused by Klebsiella spp. in the clinical departments of the center from January 1, 2017 to December 31, 2021. According to the results of the telephone survey, the patients were divided into 2 main groups depending on the outcome of the 2-year follow-up period determined in accordance with the Delphi criteria. Results. It was found that the prognosis was significantly worsened by the number of sanitizing surgical interventions in the anamnesis (p = 0.022), the need for sanitizing intervention in the early postoperative period (p0.001) and the presence of Klebsiella spp. growth in postoperative culture tests (p = 0.002), hypoalbuminemia on 7-14 days after the surgery (p = 0.008). The administration of trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole for the outpatient treament stage significantly improved the outcome (p = 0.038), which is most likely due to a high proportion of polymicrobial associations — 69.5%. Conclusions. There is a statistically significant direct relationship between the probability of an unfavorable treatment outcome of patients with IAI caused by Klebsiella spp. and the number of sanitizing surgical interventions in the anamnesis, low serum albumin (g/l) on 7-14 days after the operation, revision intervention in the early postoperative period, positive growth of Klebsiella spp. in postoperative culture tests. The probability of a favorable outcome was increased by the prescription of trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole for oral administration at the outpatient stage.

The first step of two-stage hip revision: what affects the result?

Background. The most common method of treatment of chronic periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) is considered to be a two-stage revision arthroplasty. The efficacy of this technique is largely determined by the results of infection management after the first (debridement) stage, which may depend on many factors. At the same time, the widespread tendency to reduce the duration of patients’ hospital stay brings to the forefront the problem of long wait for the results of preoperative microbiological examination. Aims of the study: 1) to retrospectively evaluate the efficacy of the debridement stage of chronic periprosthetic hip joint infection in 2021 depending on the availability of preoperative microbiological examination results; 2) to determine the factors influencing the treatment outcome. Methods. Patients (n = 86) with chronic PJI of the hip were allocated into two groups depending on the presence or absence of results of the microbiological examination of preoperative biomaterials (aspirate and/or tissue biopsy) at the time of performing the first stage of the two-stage revision arthroplasty. Results. The availability of final results of the microbiological examination (MBE) of joint aspirate at the time of surgery had no significant effect on the efficacy of infection management (p = 0.536; OR = 1.53, 95% CI 0.43-5.45). There was a significant reduction of the risk when the results of preoperative and intraoperative MBE coincided (p = 0.024; OR = 0.121, 95% CI 0.015-0.990). An increased risk of adverse outcome of the debridement stage of treatment was observed in the case of types 2C (p = 0.042; OR = 6.66; 95% CI 1.26-35.2) and 3B (p = 0.078; OR = 8.1, 95% CI 1.015-64.8) acetabular defects, type 3A femoral defects (p = 0.021; OR = 6.57, 95% CI 1.49-29.01), and connective tissue diseases (p = 0.062; OR = 5.25, 95% CI 1.05-26.2). The presence of microbial associations (p=0.02; OR = 6.75, 95% CI 1.36-33.44) and the presence of Gram-negative bacteria in them (p = 0.058; OR = 4.2, 95% CI 1.02-17.20) significantly worsened the treatment prognosis. As the number of patient’s risk factors increased, the probability of an unfavorable outcome increased significantly (p0.001). Conclusion. Polymicrobial infection, presence of Gram-negative bacteria in microbial associations, connective tissue diseases, types 2C and 3B acetabular defects, type 3A femoral bone defects, and total number of risk factors in one patient had a significant negative impact on the outcome of debridement surgery. Apparently, the results of the microbiological examination of preoperatively sampled biomaterials are much more important as a diagnostic criterion for suspected periprosthetic infection than as a criterion for the drug choice for etiotropic antibacterial therapy. However, this assumption should be studied on a larger sample of patients.

Preferences reveal dissociable encoding across prefrontal-limbic circuits.

Individual preferences for the flavor of different foods and fluids exert a strong influence on behavior. Most current theories posit that preferences are integrated with other state variables in the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC), which is thought to derive the relative subjective value of available options to guide choice behavior. Here, we report that instead of a single integrated valuation system in the OFC, another complementary one is centered in the ventrolateral prefrontal cortex (vlPFC) in macaques. Specifically, we found that the OFC and vlPFC preferentially represent outcome flavor and outcome probability, respectively, and that preferences are separately integrated into value representations in these areas. In addition, the vlPFC, but not the OFC, represented the probability of receiving the available outcome flavors separately, with the difference between these representations reflecting the degree of preference for each flavor. Thus, both the vlPFC and OFC exhibit dissociable but complementary representations of subjective value, both of which are necessary for decision-making.

Computational Modeling Differentiates Learning Rate From Reward Sensitivity Deficits Produced by Early-Life Adversity in a Rodent Touchscreen Probabilistic Reward Task

BackgroundExposure to adversity, including unpredictable environments, during early life is associated with neuropsychiatric illness in adulthood. One common factor in this sequela is anhedonia, the loss of responsivity to previously reinforcing stimuli. To accelerate the development of new treatment strategies for anhedonic disorders induced by early-life adversity, animal models have been developed to capture critical features of early-life stress and the behavioral deficits that such stressors induce. We have previously shown that rats exposed to the limited bedding and nesting protocol exhibited blunted reward responsivity in the probabilistic reward task, a touchscreen-based task reverse translated from human studies. MethodsTo test the quantitative limits of this translational platform, we examined the ability of Bayesian computational modeling and probability analyses identical to those optimized in previous human studies to quantify the putative mechanisms that underlie these deficits with precision. Specifically, 2 parameters that have been shown to independently contribute to probabilistic reward task outcomes in patient populations, reward sensitivity and learning rate, were extracted, as were trial-by-trial probability analyses of choices as a function of the preceding trial. ResultsSignificant deficits in reward sensitivity, but not learning rate, contributed to the anhedonic phenotypes in rats exposed to early-life adversity. ConclusionsThe current findings confirm and extend the translational value of these rodent models by verifying the effectiveness of computational modeling in distinguishing independent features of reward sensitivity and learning rate that complement the probabilistic reward task’s signal detection end points. Together, these metrics serve to objectively quantify reinforcement learning deficits associated with anhedonic phenotypes.