Growth Probability Research Articles

How employees are affected by working in R&D-investing firms

ABSTRACT Investments in research and development (R&D) are essential for firm success, but how does the experience of working for R&D-investing firms affect individual performance in the labour market? Combining a biennial survey series on R&D investments with a longitudinal matched employer-employee dataset from Statistics Sweden, this study examines the labour market performance of workers in R&D-investing versus non-investing firms. Results show that, on average, highly skilled employees from R&D-investing firms perform better than those from non-investing firms when they switch jobs. This includes higher wage growth and higher probability of career progression. Among this group of employees, no particular interest in entrepreneurial ventures was found. Results of this study strengthen current knowledge of the effects of R&D and provide important implications for policies.

Optimized spacing of active sites in Ni-Mo catalysts enhances ethanol production in syngas conversion

The direct conversion of syngas to ethanol is highly attractive but remains challenging due to low CO conversion and poor EtOH/ROH. We investigated the conversion of syngas over a KNiMo2C catalyst modified with carbon dots (CDs) derived from Ligustrum lucidum leaves. On the Ni0.54Mo-A catalyst, a CO conversion of 43.4 % was achieved, with oxygenates selectivity and EtOH/ROH，reaching 48.2 % and 63.7 %, the space-time yield of ethanol was 132.5 mg/gcat/h. Comprehensive characterization revealed that CDs regulate the distance between Ni-Mo active sites, preventing excessive proximity and maintaining an optimal separation. This adjustment significantly enhances EtOH/ROH by modulating the probability of carbon chain growth. A potential new reaction pathway for directly converting syngas to ethanol is proposed, The C-C coupling of CHx* with *COOH or *CO2 is identified as a key step in carbon chain growth. This work provides a new catalytic pathway for the syngas to ethanol industry.

Impact of intraspecific genetic variation on interspecific competition: a theoretical case study of forage binary mixtures

IntroductionIncreasing intraspecific genetic variation (IV) has been identified as a potential factor to improve productivity and stabilise botanical composition in plant communities. In grasslands systems, this could offer a lever to manage uncertainties of production and variability in the harvested species balance. However, little is known about the conditions to favour IV impact and the mechanisms at play.MethodsThe dependency of IV impact on traits holding it and environmental stressors were analysed using a spatially-explicit individual-based model (IBM) of grassland communities. Sixty-three binary mixtures were defined to reflect a gradient of functional divergence between species regarding light and nitrogen (N) acquisition. The growth and dynamics of these communities were simulated for one year with three possible IV levels under two environments contrasting in terms of soil N fertility.Results and discussionThe model predicted a positive impact of moderate and high IV levels on maintaining the species balance over time, but no marked effects on mixture productivity. This stabilising effect increased at higher IV levels and under low soil N fertility. It also tended to be more pronounced in communities with intermediate functional divergence offering a significant overlap between light and N acquisition parameter values of both species. The major traits involved in the plant response to neighbours differed depending on the most contested resource, as indicated by the within-population selection of individuals with favourable N-related parameters under low N and light-related parameters under high N environments. The hypothesis that IV favours a complementarity of resource use between species was not supported. Rather, a greater spatial heterogeneity in competitive interactions was demonstrated, leading to a higher probability of growth and survival for individuals within the subordinate species. These results highlight the potential usefulness of IV to design forage mixtures with improved stability and resilience.

Cumulative and interannual effects of reproduction in eastern grey kangaroos.

Reproduction can reduce energy allocation to other life-history traits such as survival and growth. Resource constraints give rise to (co)variation in life-history traits and to heterogeneity in energy acquisition and allocation. At each reproductive opportunity, females face a choice between allocation to current reproduction or to maintenance. Many studies compare reproductive trade-offs between two consecutive years, but few account for the cumulative effects of reproduction over multiple years, a crucial factor in understanding life-history evolution in long-lived iteroparous species. We compared short- (interannual) and long-term (cumulative) reproductive trade-offs with a 14-year capture-mark-recapture study of eastern grey kangaroos, where females can have substantial skeletal growth for several years after maturation. We used a multivariate approach to compare how interannual and multi-annual cumulative reproduction affected growth (n = 378 measurements), mass change (n = 376 measurements) and subsequent reproduction (n = 388 measurements), and to quantify (co)variation between these traits among individuals (n = 107) and years (n = 14). Interannually, young females that reproduced experienced decreased skeletal growth compared to young females that did not reproduce. Reproductive females of all ages experienced reduced mass gain and weaning probability in the following year. The cumulative effects of multiple reproductions included decreased skeletal growth, mass gain and weaning probability in the following year. These effects increased with age and reproductive rate. We found positive trait correlations between mass change, leg growth and subsequent reproduction among individuals and years, though weaker at the cumulative than interannual level. Females experience dynamic interannual and cumulative trade-offs. Our analyses of cumulative costs of reproduction revealed long-term trade-offs as well as cumulative costs that were not apparent when estimating interannual costs. Trait correlations suggested heterogeneity in growth and reproduction among females. Years of increased growth were followed by years of increased reproduction, and years of poor growth were followed by years of poor reproduction. Our exploration of both interannual and cumulative costs of reproduction underscores the need to account for long-term reproductive histories to better understand reproductive trade-offs in long-lived iteroparous species.

Appendage damage effects on Southern Rock Lobster growth and mortality

Handling of crustaceans can result in injuries such as limb damage, reducing post-release survival and subsequent growth. Quantifying the impact of handling damage can provide insight into the effects of increased handling, which can occur when undersized animals are released by fishers or during translocations of animals between areas. We investigated the impact of handling on the Southern Rock Lobster (Jasus edwardsii) using three decades of scientific tag-recapture data from a no-fishing reserve. We used a Bayesian modeling approach with a modified Von Bertalanffy growth model which is robust to measurement error and Cormack-Jolly-Seber capture-recapture model to estimate growth and survival probability parameters. We found that even low levels of damage (1–4 appendages) can decrease growth by ∼ 10 % in the subsequent moult. Male lobsters suffered greater effects of handling-induced damage than did females, potentially due to the additional energy reserves available to brooding females.

GVP-RRT: a grid based variable probability Rapidly-exploring Random Tree algorithm for AGV path planning

In response to the issues of low solution efficiency, poor path planning quality, and limited search completeness in narrow passage environments associated with Rapidly-exploring Random Tree (RRT), this paper proposes a Grid-based Variable Probability Rapidly-exploring Random Tree algorithm (GVP-RRT) for narrow passages. The algorithm introduced in this paper preprocesses the map through gridization to extract features of different path regions. Subsequently, it employs random growth with variable probability density based on the features of path regions using various strategies based on grid, probability, and guidance to enhance the probability of growth in narrow passages, thereby improving the completeness of the algorithm. Finally, the planned route is subjected to path re-optimization based on the triangle inequality principle. The simulation results demonstrate that the planning success rate of GVP-RRT in complex narrow channels is increased by 11.5–69.5% compared with other comparative algorithms, the average planning time is reduced by more than 50%, and the GVP-RRT has a shorter average planning path length.

Structural integrity assessment of CANDU pressure tubes using Sobol indices for global sensitivity analysis

CANDU11CANDU is a registered trademark of Atomic Energy of Canada Limited. reactors are a channel-type design where up to 480 zirconium alloy pressure tubes (PTs) act as the reactor pressure boundary. Fitness-for-service standards such as CSA N285.8 (CSA Group, 2015) have been established to prescribe the requirements of pressure tube evaluations to maintain their integrity throughout their lifetime. Probabilistic leak-before-break (LBB) assessments can be used in evaluations to demonstrate that the likelihood of a flaw growing past the stability point while undetected (or before a safe shutdown can be achieved) is below regulatory limits. The assessments typically require a ranking of model parameters based on their influence. The ranking process traditionally uses expert judgment and local sensitivity analysis methods. There has been recent interest in implementing global methods for LBB assessments as they can manage large numbers of variables and extensive sampling spaces. However, their adoption is hindered by the computational cost of the models involved.The current study proposes a method for performing global sensitivity parameter rankings during probabilistic LBB assessments. The study is the continuation of the CANDU nuclear power plant (NPP) pressure tube (PT) case study in El Bouzidi et al., (2024) where a probabilistic approach was implemented in RAVEN (Rabiti and Alfonsi, 2019) to estimate whether the probability of unstable crack growth in PTs is within acceptable limits. This follow-up work proposes surrogate modeling using a high-dimensional model representation to derive Sobol indices and establish a parameter influence ranking. The methodology is demonstrated in a Monte Carlo simulation campaign of a pressure tube inlet rolled joint. The implemented approach successfully identified and quantified critical parameters of the model while efficiently ranking and quantifying the interactions between input variables.

The effective thermal conductivity of random isotropic porous media analysis and prediction

Effective thermal conductivity of porous media is a crucial parameter for heat transfer within them. Many studies have characterized various porous media by adjusting the control parameters generated through the Quartet Structure Generation Set method. The porous media effective thermal conductivity is then determined through Computational Fluid Dynamics calculations, which, however, necessitate significant computational resources and time. Thus, following an exploration of the influence of control parameters (i.e., porosity, core growth probability, and their coupling) on the effective thermal conductivity of isotropic porous media generated by the Quartet Structure Generation Set method, this study developed a multi-layer perceptron prediction model. The aim was to establish a prediction model from the porous media control parameters to effective thermal conductivity, thereby reducing the time spent on iterative calculations. The findings indicate that the effective thermal conductivity does not uniformly increase with the growth of core probability, and instead fluctuates after a certain threshold. Notably, the trained model exhibits a high prediction accuracy, with average deviations of 0.0887 and 0.0748 for the training and testing datasets, respectively.

Comparative analysis of dual immune checkpoint inhibitor combination therapy versus immune checkpoint inhibitor plus tyrosine kinase inhibitor combination therapy for renal cell carcinoma with inferior vena cava tumor thrombosis.

Whether immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) plus ICI combination therapy or ICI plus tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) combination therapy is useful for renal cell carcinoma (RCC) with inferior vena cava tumor thrombosis (IVCTT) remains unclear. We retrospectively evaluated the therapeutic effects and incidence of treatment-related adverse events (TRAEs) associated with ICI-based combination therapy in 36 patients with advanced RCC with IVCTT. The median age at initiation of treatment was 71years; the IVCTT stages were cT3b in 22 patients and cT3c in 14. The ICI-ICI and ICI-TKI groups comprised 15 and 21 patients, respectively. Median tumor shrinkage at the best response showed that the primary tumor diameter decreased by 1.8cm (22%), and the IVCTT height decreased by 1.5cm (26%). A higher proportion of patients in the ICI-TKI group experienced tumor shrinkage than those in the ICI-ICI group (primary tumor, p = 0.0325; IVCTT, p = 0.0112). Approximately 27% of patients experienced an increase in the IVCTT height with ICI-ICI combination therapy. No significant difference was observed in the relative tumor shrinkage of IVCTT, primary or level-down staging of IVCTT, other treatment effects, incidence of TRAEs, surgical outcomes, or prognosis between the groups. ICI-based combination therapy is effective against IVCTT and primary RCC. Although ICI-ICI is associated with a higher probability of tumor growth compared with ICI-TKI in the frequency of tumor regression, both therapies may be almost equally effective against primary RCC with IVCTT.

Long Term Follow-Up Observation in Small Choroidal Melanocytic Tumors.

The purpose of this study is to analyze the long-term evolution of patients with small choroidal melanocytic tumors (SCMTs) undergoing observation, and to assess their rate of transformation into melanomas and survival. A retrospective single-cohort study of patients with SCMTs (1-3 mm in height and 5-10 mm in base) diagnosed from January 1992 to February 2023 was carried out, with observation as the initial treatment. The main criterion for a transformation into melanoma is considered to be an increase in size of more than 1 mm in height and/or more than 1 mm in base measured on an ultrasound/retinography, recorded in two consecutive visits separated by one to three months. 243 patients were included with a mean age of 65.3 years and a mean follow-up of 7.9 years (6 months-27.9 years); 27 patients showed tumor growth. The probabilities of growth at 5, 10, and 15 years are 10%, 14%, and 17%, respectively. Regarding survival, 22 patients died and only 3 deaths were due to melanoma metastasis. Survival rates at 5 and 10 years are 99% and 97%. Observation is a viable therapeutic option for SCMTs, avoiding the side effects of treatment, considering the majority of these tumors do not progress to melanoma. With close monitoring, patients can be treated promptly upon detecting a transformation. Additionally, the findings confirm that small melanocytic tumors can lead to metastatic disease, albeit at a low rate.

Synergistic Biophysics and Machine Learning Modeling to Rapidly Predict Cardiac Growth Probability.

Computational models that can predict growth and remodeling of the heart could have important clinical applications. However, the time it takes to calibrate and run current models while considering data uncertainty and variability makes them impractical for routine clinical use. This study aims to address this need by creating a computational framework to efficiently predict cardiac growth probability. We utilized a biophysics model to rapidly simulate cardiac growth following mitral valve regurgitation (MVR). Here we developed a two-tiered Bayesian History Matching approach augmented with Gaussian process emulators for efficient calibration of model parameters to align with growth outcomes within a 95% confidence interval. We first generated a synthetic data set to assess the accuracy of our framework, and the effect of changes in data uncertainty on growth predictions. We then calibrated our model to match baseline and chronic canine MVR data and used an independent data set to successfully validate the ability of our calibrated model to accurately predict cardiac growth probability. The combined biophysics and machine learning modeling framework we proposed in this study can be easily translated to predict patient-specific cardiac growth.

Photoluminescence probing of light absorption centers at silica laser damage.

We use photoluminescence (PL) imaging to study damage growth precursors within laser damage sites on the surface of silica. Damage site evolution is induced by multiple shots of UV nanosecond pulsed laser at various energy densities and monitored throughout the early stages of growth. Wide-field PL imaging rapidly locates microscopic light absorption centers within the silica damage site. Our quantitative analysis shows that damage sites with strong local PL intensity show a higher probability of growth upon subsequent laser pulses. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) paired with a study of PL spectrum shows that the strong PL intensity appears from the subsurface fractures with high defect density, which provides a local light absorption center leading to significant damage growth. We believe that this result offers an efficient optical damage mitigation strategy by providing a rapid and non-destructive optical inspection approach.

Fischer-Tropsch Synthesis for the Production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel: Formation of Tertiary Amines from Ammonia Contaminants.

Fischer-Tropsch synthesis combined with product workup is a promising route toward synthetic aviation fuel from renewable hydrogen and carbon sources like biomass, CO2, and waste. Cost savings can be achieved by reducing the number of gas treatment steps in new plants, but the consequence of contaminants in the feed needs investigation. While feeding 2.6 ppmV ammonia to a Fischer-Tropsch reactor, it was shown that ammonia was predominantly chemically converted into organic amines, with most nitrogen found in the water phase (89%), followed by heavy wax (7%) and light wax (1%). The concentration difference between water and light wax was shown to be due to the post-condensation separation of amines on polarity. Amines up to a chain length of 120 were detected in the heavy wax with MALDI-FT-ICR-MS, which, in combination with the high nitrogen content, suggests that amines have a similar chain growth probability compared to the main hydrocarbon products. Detailed product analysis with three independent analytical techniques showed that tertiary N,N-dimethylalkylamines were by far the most abundant amine class. This suggests that ammonia is decomposed on the cobalt surface and, potentially as a dimethylamine fragment, incorporated in the growing chain. Further evidence was obtained from the abundance of trimethylamine and from the reconciled nitrogen product analysis up to C100, which showed that the amine product distribution followed from naphtha onward the same ASF kinetics as alkanes and oxygenates while being distinctively different from the alkene distribution. The presented findings provide further avenues for studies of the Fischer-Tropsch reaction mechanism and indicate the opportunity of cost saving on gas treatment, while further validation is required to assess the impact on hydrocracking and product quality.

Growth and no-growth boundary of Clostridium perfringens in cooked cured meats – A logistic analysis and development of critical control surfaces using a solid growth medium

This study was conducted to evaluate the effect of sodium nitrite (NaNO2, 100–200 ppm), sodium erythorbate (SE, 0–547 ppm), sodium tripolyphosphate (STPP, 0–0.5 %), and sodium chloride (NaCl, 2–3 %) on growth of C. perfringens using a solid growth medium and to develop a growth/no-growth boundary (critical control surface, or CCS) to prevent its growth in cooked cured meat under the optimal temperature condition. Melted Shahidi Ferguson Perfringens (SFP) agar, inoculated with a 3-strain spore cocktail and mixed with NaNO2, SE, STPP, and NaCl according to a Box-Behnken response surface experimental design, was dispersed in 96-well microplates and incubated anaerobically in an incubator programmed to remain at 4 °C for 24 h, heat to 80 °C in 1.75 h, quickly (0.5 h) cool to 46 °C (optimum temperature), and then maintain at 46 °C overnight. The plates were examined optically and visually for colony formation. Any well free of growth was designated as no-growth. Logistic regression was used to analyze the growth probability (P) as affected by NaNO2, SE, STPP, and NaCl and define a CSS as meeting the criterion of P < 1/96. The results showed that STPP and the interactions of SE with NaNO2 and NaCl could reduce the growth probability of C. perfringens in SFP agar. The validation of CCS with ground beef showed an accuracy of 96.3 % for no growth of C. perfringens in the inoculated samples. The results of this study proved that cured meat can be formulated with proper combinations of NaNO2, SE, STPP, and NaCl to prevent the growth of C. perfringens even under the optimum temperature condition, thus preventing food poisoning caused by the growth of this microorganism.

Natural history and surgical outcomes of Rathke's cleft cysts: a Spanish multicenter study.

National multicentric study of patients diagnosed of Rathke's cleft cyst (RCC- Spain) from 2000 onwards and followed in 15 tertiary centers of Spain. A total of 177 patients diagnosed of RCC followed for 67.3 months (6-215) and 88 patients who underwent surgery, (81 patients underwent immediate surgery after diagnosis and 7 later for subsequent growth) followed for 68.8 months (3-235). The cyst size remained stable or decreased in 73.5% (133) of the patients. Only 44 patients (24.3%) experienced a cyst increase and 9 of them (5.1%) experienced an increase greater than 3 mm. In most of the patients who underwent surgery headaches and visual alterations improved, recurrence was observed in 8 (9.1%) after a median time of 96 months, and no predictors of recurrence were discovered. Rathke's cleft cysts without initial compressive symptoms have a low probability of growth, so conservative management is recommended. Patients who undergo transsphenoidal surgery experience rapid clinical improvement, and recurrences are infrequent. However, they can occur after a long period of time, although no predictors of recurrence have been identified.

The effects of solar radiation on daily and seasonal stem increment of canopy trees in European temperate old-growth forests.

It is well established that solar irradiance greatly influences tree metabolism and growth through photosynthesis, but its effects acting through individual climate metrics have not yet been well quantified. Understanding these effects is crucial for assessing the impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems. To describe the effects of solar irradiance on tree growth, we installed 110 automatic dendrometers in two old-growth mountain forest reserves in Central Europe, performed detailed terrestrial and aerial laser scanning to obtain precise tree profiles, and used these to simulate the sum of solar irradiance received by each tree on a daily basis. Generalized linear mixed-effect models were applied to simulate the probability of growth and the growth intensity over seven growing seasons. Our results demonstrated various contrasting effects of solar irradiance on the growth of canopy trees. On the one hand, the highest daily growth rates corresponded with the highest solar irradiance potentials (i.e. the longest photoperiod). Intense solar irradiance significantly decreased tree growth, through an increase in the vapor pressure deficit. These effects were consistent for all species but had different magnitude. Tree growth is the most effective on long rainy/cloudy days with low solar irradiance.

Antifungal activity of alginate coatings with essential oil of Mexican oregano incorporated in the stem of tomatoes

SummaryAdding natural antimicrobials such as essential oils (EOs) to alginate coatings on fruits provides an antifungal effect and a semipermeable water vapour barrier. This work aims to evaluate the antifungal effect of Lippia berlandieri S. (Mexican oregano) EO incorporated into alginate to coat tomato stems inoculated with Penicillium commune, Fusarium spp., or Cladosporium herbarum. Alginate films and coatings with EO concentrations (0%, 0.25%, 0.75%, 1%, 2%, or 4% v/v) were prepared to evaluate their properties (physical, mechanical, and water vapour transmission rates) as well as their effect on mould growth on tomato stems for 28 days during refrigerated storage. Mould growth was described with probabilistic and time‐to‐growth predictive models. Two treatment types were assessed (tomato inoculated and coated, TIC, and tomato coated and inoculated, TCI) to provide information about the moment of mould contamination (before or after coating). EO concentration influenced the alginate films' physical, mechanical, and barrier properties. Testing the coatings against moulds revealed varying inhibitory effects. Fusarium spp. exhibited the highest resistance, while C. herbarum was the most susceptible. The predictive models appropriately described the probability of growth or the time‐to‐growth of the studied moulds, identifying critical concentrations of oregano EO needed to inhibit mould growth effectively. The findings suggest that alginate coatings with oregano EO can serve as a natural and effective antifungal treatment for tomatoes, offering insights into optimal concentrations and application methods for extended shelf life.

Enteral nutrition compared with corticosteroids in children with Crohn's disease: A long-term nationwide study from the epi-IIRN.

Both corticosteroids and exclusive enteral nutrition (EEN) have been used as induction therapy in children with Crohn's disease (CD). To compare in a nationwide studythe long-term outcomes of children with CD receiving either EEN or corticosteroids as induction therapy. We retrieved data of all children diagnosed with CD (2005-2020) from the epi-IIRN cohort covering 98% of the Israeli population. The primary outcome was time to complicated disease course (i.e., surgery, steroid-dependency, or at least 2 biologic class). Patients were matched individually utilising propensity score adjustments. We included 410 children treated with EEN and 375 with corticosteroids without other treatments (median follow-up, 4.73 [IQR: 2.2-7.2] years [1433 patient-years]). For 274 matched children, the probability of a complicated course was higher with corticosteroids than EEN at 0.5, 3 and 5 years (14% vs. 4%, 42% vs. 27% and 54% vs. 41%, respectively, p = 0.0066), despite similar use of biologics. Steroid-dependency (10% vs. 2%, 15% vs. 3%, and 20% vs. 5%, respectively, p = 0.00018), and hospitalisations (20% vs. 11%, 37% vs. 26%, and 55% vs. 38%, respectively, p = 0.002) were higher with corticosteroids. During follow-up, children receiving corticosteroids as induction treatment were more often further exposed to corticosteroids, and those on EEN were more often further exposed to nutritional treatment (p < 0.001). Induction with EEN had no advantage over corticosteroids regarding survival probability of surgeries, biologic use and growth. EEN in paediatric CD is associated with lower long-term risks of corticosteroid dependency and hospitalisation than corticosteroids. These results may lend support to favouring nutritional therapy in paediatric CD.

Fast-QSGS: A GPU accelerated program for structure generation of granular disordered media

We present Fast-QSGS, a GPU-accelerated program for granular disordered media generation. Based on vectorization, Fast-QSGS is accelerated by modern GPU thanks to the NumPy-compatible API provided by CuPy. We also introduce a variable growth probability function and seed spacing control to improve the speed and accuracy of the original QSGS method. Computational performance benchmarks are conducted on both consumer-grade and professional-grade GPUs. Generation of disordered media of size 4003 can be completed in 30 s on A100 and 110 s on RTX4060, achieving a speedup of over 400 compared with the serial version. Physical benchmarks on the reconstruction of Fontainebleau sandstone and hydrated cement are conducted. Our results demonstrate that the permeability of the reconstructed Fontainebleau sandstone falls within the range of experimental values. Additionally, the average relative error of the volume fraction of the unhydrated cement and capillary porosity of hydrated cement is 1.9 % and 3.4 % compared with Powers’ law, respectively. Program SummaryProgram Title: Fast-QSGSCPC Library link to program files:https://doi.org/10.17632/gswbd7tf3g.1Licensing provisions: MIT licenseProgramming language: PythonNature of Problem: Fast generation/reconstruction of disordered granular media.Solution method: The QSGS method is vectorized and implemented in Python. Via CuPy, the current implementation of QSGS can be easily accelerated by modern GPUs.

Does Unconditional Accounting Conservatism Imply Upside or Downside Risk? Evidence from the Options Market

SYNOPSIS Conservatism captures an asymmetric reporting practice in response to uncertainty in business operations (earnings). Such uncertainty in business operations implies that investors are exposed to tail risk such that there is a probability of large earnings growth, offset by the probability of a large earnings decline. Existing literature has shown that accounting conservatism relates positively to stock returns. However, the literature is silent on whether this pricing is driven by positive earnings expectation or by the potential negative earnings growth. Using option-implied assets, we find that conservatism is priced by investors’ risk aversion (downside risk) rather than the potential upside. Several robustness tests confirm the findings. We also provide evidence that the returns are not driven by mispricing but as compensation for the risk implied by conservative reporting. We further decompose an alternate conservatism measure and find that our results are driven by the uncertainty in expenses rather than revenues.