Probability Of Arrest Research Articles

Direct and Indirect Effects of Cumulative Trauma, PTSD, and Substance Use Disorder on Probability of Arrest Among Lower Income African American and Latina Women

We conducted a secondary analysis of cross-sectional data to examine the association of cumulative trauma, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and substance use disorder (SUD) with the probability of arrest in a sample of socioeconomically disadvantaged African American and Latino mothers ( N = 158). Results revealed that 34% of the sample had a history of arrest. Logistic regression revealed that cumulative trauma was significantly and positively associated with the likelihood of arrest. Exposure to increasing numbers of traumas contributed to greater odds of arrest, as much as 62% for each additional trauma exposure. Moreover, binary mediation analyses revealed that PTSD and SUD exerted an intervening influence on the pathway between cumulative trauma and the probability of arrest. Women with a lifetime history of PTSD or SUD were 5–6 times more likely to be arrested than women without either disorder. Lifetime PTSD and lifetime SUD were partial mediators of the association between cumulative trauma exposure and arrest, accounting for 63% of the variance. These findings have important implications for intervention efforts geared toward helping young racial/ethnic minority mothers, especially those with PTSD and SUD, manage the distress and impairment that may contribute to criminal justice involvement.

Who gets arrested for marijuana use? The perils of being poor and black

ABSTRACTWe explore the relationship between income, race and the probability of being arrested. Our data set is comprised of individuals who have all violated federal marijuana laws, some of whom have been arrested. We reason that the cost of arresting a poor individual with diminished social status is lower. Our empiricism reveals that the probability of arrest is higher when the law breaker is poor and African American.

Criminally Involved Parents Who Misuse Substances and Children's Odds of Being Arrested as a Young Adult: Do Drug Treatment Courts Mitigate the Risk?

This paper examined (1) the association between parents who are convicted of a substance-related offense and their children's probability of being arrested as a young adult and (2) whether or not parental participation in an adult drug treatment court program mitigated this risk. The analysis relied on state administrative data from North Carolina courts (2005-2013) and from birth records (1988-2003). The dependent variable was the probability that a child was arrested as a young adult (16-21). Logistic regression was used to compare groups and models accounted for the clustering of multiple children with the same mother. Findings revealed that children whose parents were convicted on either a substance-related charge on a non-substance-related charge had twice the odds of being arrested as young adult, relative to children whose parents had not been observed having a conviction. While a quarter of children whose parents participated in a drug treatment court program were arrested as young adults, parental completion this program did not reduce this risk. In conclusion, children whose parents were convicted had an increased risk of being arrested as young adults, irrespective of whether or not the conviction was on a substance-related charge. However, drug treatment courts did not reduce this risk. Reducing intergenerational links in the probability of arrest remains a societal challenge.

Stereotactic probability and variability of speech arrest and anomia sites during stimulation mapping of the language dominant hemisphere.

OBJECTIVE Functional mapping using direct cortical stimulation is the gold standard for the prevention of postoperative morbidity during resective surgery in dominant-hemisphere perisylvian regions. Its role is necessitated by the significant interindividual variability that has been observed for essential language sites. The aim in this study was to determine the statistical probability distribution of eliciting aphasic errors for any given stereotactically based cortical position in a patient cohort and to quantify the variability at each cortical site. METHODS Patients undergoing awake craniotomy for dominant-hemisphere primary brain tumor resection between 1999 and 2014 at the authors' institution were included in this study, which included counting and picture-naming tasks during dense speech mapping via cortical stimulation. Positive and negative stimulation sites were collected using an intraoperative frameless stereotactic neuronavigation system and were converted to Montreal Neurological Institute coordinates. Data were iteratively resampled to create mean and standard deviation probability maps for speech arrest and anomia. Patients were divided into groups with a "classic" or an "atypical" location of speech function, based on the resultant probability maps. Patient and clinical factors were then assessed for their association with an atypical location of speech sites by univariate and multivariate analysis. RESULTS Across 102 patients undergoing speech mapping, the overall probabilities of speech arrest and anomia were 0.51 and 0.33, respectively. Speech arrest was most likely to occur with stimulation of the posterior inferior frontal gyrus (maximum probability from individual bin = 0.025), and variance was highest in the dorsal premotor cortex and the posterior superior temporal gyrus. In contrast, stimulation within the posterior perisylvian cortex resulted in the maximum mean probability of anomia (maximum probability = 0.012), with large variance in the regions surrounding the posterior superior temporal gyrus, including the posterior middle temporal, angular, and supramarginal gyri. Patients with atypical speech localization were far more likely to have tumors in canonical Broca's or Wernicke's areas (OR 7.21, 95% CI 1.67-31.09, p < 0.01) or to have multilobar tumors (OR 12.58, 95% CI 2.22-71.42, p < 0.01), than were patients with classic speech localization. CONCLUSIONS This study provides statistical probability distribution maps for aphasic errors during cortical stimulation mapping in a patient cohort. Thus, the authors provide an expected probability of inducing speech arrest and anomia from specific 10-mm2 cortical bins in an individual patient. In addition, they highlight key regions of interindividual mapping variability that should be considered preoperatively. They believe these results will aid surgeons in their preoperative planning of eloquent cortex resection.

Key Risk Factors for Relapse and Rearrest Among Substance Use Treatment Patients Involved in the Criminal Justice System

Substance use treatment programs for criminal justice populations have great potential for crime reduction, if they can effectively manage patients’ risk for relapse and rearrest. The current study used data drawn from the Comprehensive Assessment and Treatment Outcome Research (CATOR) system, a national registry of substance use treatment programs, which collected patient outcome data at 6- and 12-month intervals following discharge from treatment. The primary objective was to examine sets of factors that may compromise relapse and rearrest outcomes among patients who were court mandated to participate in treatment. Findings demonstrated that patients’ clinical severity of substance use was associated with relapse, which also significantly increased the probability of post-treatment arrest. Adolescent risk behaviors represented another set of risk factors, particularly among patients who experienced the most severe pattern of relapse and arrest outcomes. Additionally, demographic risk factors, including age, marital status (i.e., single or unmarried relative to married), employment (i.e., being unemployed compared to employed), and lower educational attainment were consistently linked to higher probabilities of relapse and rearrest. Treatment programs for criminal justice populations should consider incorporating appropriate clinical risk assessment measures, behavioral risk assessments, and appropriate employment interventions into standard treatment programming in an effort to improve outcomes.

Gender, Risk Assessment, and Sanctioning: The Cost of Treating Women Like Men

Increasingly, jurisdictions across the U.S. are using risk assessment instruments to scaffold efforts to unwind mass incarceration without compromising public safety. Despite promising results, critics oppose the use of these instruments to inform sentencing and correctional decisions. One argument is that the use of instruments that include gender as a risk factor will discriminate against men in sanctioning. Based on a sample of 14,310 federal offenders, we empirically test the predictive fairness of an instrument that omits gender, the Post Conviction Risk Assessment (PCRA). We found that the PCRA strongly predicts arrests for both genders — but overestimates women’s likelihood of recidivism. For a given PCRA score, the predicted probability of arrest — which is based on combining both genders — is too high for women. Although gender neutrality is an obviously appealing concept, it may translate into instrument bias and overly harsh sanctions for women. With respect to the moral question of disparate impact, we found that women obtain slightly lower mean scores on the PCRA than men (d=.32); this difference is wholly attributable to men’s greater criminal history, a factor already embedded in sentencing guidelines.

Gender, risk assessment, and sanctioning: The cost of treating women like men.

Increasingly, jurisdictions across the United States are using risk assessment instruments to scaffold efforts to unwind mass incarceration without compromising public safety. Despite promising results, critics oppose the use of these instruments to inform sentencing and correctional decisions. One argument is that the use of instruments that include gender as a risk factor will discriminate against men in sanctioning. On the basis of a sample of 14,310 federal offenders, we empirically test the predictive fairness of an instrument that omits gender, the Post Conviction Risk Assessment (PCRA). We found that the PCRA strongly predicts arrests for both genders, but overestimates women's likelihood of recidivism. For a given PCRA score, the predicted probability of arrest, which is based on combining both genders, is too high for women. Although gender neutrality is an obviously appealing concept, it may translate into instrument bias and overly harsh sanctions for women. With respect to the moral question of disparate impact, we found that women obtain slightly lower mean scores on the PCRA than men (d = .32, 99% CI = .29-.35, or 87% overlap in scores); this difference is wholly attributable to men's greater criminal history, a factor already embedded in sentencing guidelines. (PsycINFO Database Record

Does Juvenile Delinquency Reduce Educational Attainment?

This article investigates the effect of delinquency in youth on subsequent educational attainment. To do so, we focus on delinquent acts committed by age 16 and examine their impact on two measures of educational attainment: high school graduation and college graduation. Using information on males from the extremely rich National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997, we find plausible evidence that delinquency by age 16 reduces the likelihood of graduating from high school and college. This effect is driven by early initiators, those who offend intensely, and by those whose delinquent activities involve income‐generating acts. Importantly, the impact of delinquency on education is not confined to those who have interaction with the criminal justice system, or gang members. Further analysis suggests that a channel through which delinquency impacts education is expected returns to crime, as reflected by subjective beliefs about the probability of arrest for a property crime.

What determines crime rates? An empirical test of integrated economic and sociological theories of criminal behavior

Research on crime has by no means reached a definitive conclusion on which factors are related to crime rates. We contribute to the crime literature by providing an integrated empirical model of economic and sociological theories of criminal behavior and by using a very comprehensive set of economic, social as well as demographic explanatory variables. We use panel data techniques to estimate this integrated crime model for property and violent crime using the entire population of all 100 counties in North Carolina for the years 2001–2005. Both fields contribute to the explanatory power of the integrated model. Our results support the economic explanation of crime with respect to the deterrent effect of the probabilities of arrest and imprisonment concerns, as well as the time allocation model of criminal activities. In contrast, the integrated model seems to reject the impact of the severity of punishment on crime levels. With respect to the sociological theories of crime, we find most support for the social disorganization theory and for the routine activity theory. Finally, we find differences between property and violent crimes, mostly explained by the sociological models.

Abstract 3777: In silico rendering of cell cycle progression of erlotinib and gemcitabine treatment in pancreatic cancer cells

Abstract The association of erlotinib (ERL) with gemcitabine (GEM) is a promising combined therapy for advanced pancreatic cancer, but current protocols have only a modest impact on the overall survival of patients respect to GEM alone. Sequential treatment can improve the efficacy of this drug combination. Towards optimization of the drug combination, we simulated cell cycle progression during/after treatment, based on the dynamics of checkpoint activation, with the probabilities of cell arrest or death in each cell cycle phase, applying a previously established experimental/computational approach (Lupi et al. Cancer Res. 64: 2825; Ubezio et al Cancer Res. 69: 5234; Falcetta et al. PLoS Comput Biol. e1003293). The simulation gives the temporal evolution of cell flow through G1, S and G2M over subsequent division cycles, from which the time courses of cell cycle percentages and the number of cells in each cell generation were derived enabling a joint validation of the model with independent flow cytometric and time-lapse live-imaging experimental data, collected in time course experiments up to 96h with different concentrations of GEM (6h treatment) and ERL (48h treatment) with two pancreatic cell lines (BxPC-3 and capan-1). Analysis of the response to ERL treatment reveals that at cytostatic concentrations a partial G1 arrest mainly occurs after the first division following the start of treatment (gen 1 cells) while a stronger delay of the progression in S phase is active also before division (gen 0). The activity of G1 and S phase checkpoints were dose dependent and at higher cytotoxic concentrations we observed a near complete arrest in both G1 and S phases while most cell deaths were in phase S in gen 0. After treatment discontinuation, while G1 blocked cells re-enter in cycle, S phase progression in gen 0 and gen 1 remained slow but without additional death events. The model of GEM demonstrated the activation of a strong delay in phase S shortly after the start of treatment, both in gen 0 and gen 1, already at non-cytotoxic concentrations, lasting several hours after treatment discontinuation, and thereafter progressively reduced, resulting in a wave of broadly semisynchronised cells traversing S and G2M phases in gen 0. At cytotoxic concentrations, part of the cells remained arrested in S phase and eventually died. A temporary delay in G1 was also demonstrated already at fairly low concentrations, acting only during exposure to the drug. Based on these models of GEM and ERL treatment, studies are ongoing to simulate the expected outcomes of sequential treatments. Preliminary analysis suggests that the GEM = &amp;gt; ERL sequence is particularly favourable in both cell lines when a cytostatic ERL concentration was given after a fairly cytototoxic GEM concentration when S phase progression resumed, by strengthening the long term cytostatic effects in S phase. Citation Format: Monica Lupi, Francesca Falcetta, Maurizio D'Incalci, Paolo Ubezio. In silico rendering of cell cycle progression of erlotinib and gemcitabine treatment in pancreatic cancer cells. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 106th Annual Meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research; 2015 Apr 18-22; Philadelphia, PA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2015;75(15 Suppl):Abstract nr 3777. doi:10.1158/1538-7445.AM2015-3777

The Moderating Role of BIS/BAS Personality Tendencies in the Relationship between General Strain and Crime

This article extends general strain theory by examining the role of the behavioral approach systems (BAS) and behavioral inhibition systems (BIS) in moderating the relationship between exposure to social strain and criminal behaviors. Analyses revealed that BIS and BAS operate differently in the prediction of crime. Those low in chronic strains experienced increases in arrests at higher BAS scores. For those exposed to medium and high levels of stress, a higher level of BAS-drive was associated with a decreased probability of arrest. In contrast, there is a positive association between lifetime traumas and arrest, and the magnitude of this relationship increases at each succeeding level of BAS scores.

School suspension and the school-to-prison pipeline

Schools have many available strategies to address problem behavior among students. One option increasingly used by schools is to suspend problem youth and remove them for defined periods. The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether this type of disciplinary policy has unintended consequences by giving problem youth greater opportunity to commit crimes outside of school. Previous studies have looked at the “incapacitation” effect of school holidays and teacher strike days, but these studies do not directly address the relevant school policy decisions. The current study relies on administrative data from a school district and a juvenile justice system. The results indicate that out-of-school suspension may increase criminal offending behavior by problem youth, more than doubling the probability of arrest. The effect is particularly large among African American youth, relative to Whites.

A probabilistic map of the human ventral sensorimotor cortex using electrical stimulation.

The human ventral sensorimotor cortex (vSMC) is involved in facial expression, mastication, and swallowing, as well as the dynamic and highly coordinated movements of human speech production. However, vSMC organization remains poorly understood, and previously published population-driven maps of its somatotopy do not accurately reflect the variability across individuals in a quantitative, probabilistic fashion. The goal of this study was to describe the responses to electrical stimulation of the vSMC, generate probabilistic maps of function in the vSMC, and quantify the variability across individuals. Photographic, video, and stereotactic MRI data of intraoperative electrical stimulation of the vSMC were collected for 33 patients undergoing awake craniotomy. Stimulation sites were converted to a 2D coordinate system based on anatomical landmarks. Motor, sensory, and speech stimulation responses were reviewed and classified. Probabilistic maps of stimulation responses were generated, and spatial variance was quantified. In 33 patients, the authors identified 194 motor, 212 sensory, 61 speech-arrest, and 27 mixed responses. Responses were complex, stereotyped, and mostly nonphysiological movements, involving hand, orofacial, and laryngeal musculature. Within individuals, the presence of oral movement representations varied; however, the dorsal-ventral order was always preserved. The most robust motor responses were jaw (probability 0.85), tongue (0.64), lips (0.58), and throat (0.52). Vocalizations were seen in 6 patients (0.18), more dorsally near lip and dorsal throat areas. Sensory responses were spatially dispersed; however, patients' subjective reports were highly precise in localization within the mouth. The most robust responses included tongue (0.82) and lips (0.42). The probability of speech arrest was 0.85, highest 15-20 mm anterior to the central sulcus and just dorsal to the sylvian fissure, in the anterior precentral gyrus or pars opercularis. The authors report probabilistic maps of function in the human vSMC based on intraoperative cortical electrical stimulation. These results define the expected range of mapping outcomes in the vSMC of a single individual and shed light on the functional organization of the vSMC supporting speech motor control and nonspeech functions.

Uncovering the Gender Participation Gap in the Crime Market

There is little research on the gender variation in the crime market. We document a gender gap in criminal activities, based on property crimes, using data from the U.S. National Incident Based Reporting System from 1995 to 2015. We show that there is a gender participation gap, with only 30 percent of the crimes being committed by females. We try to explain the gender participation gap by focusing on incentives to commit crime, such as criminal earnings and probability of arrest. We show that on average females earn 13 percent less than males while they face a 9 percent lower likelihood of arrest. We find that males respond more to changes in illegal earnings, with an elasticity of 0.36, while females are less responsive with an elasticity of 0.23. Both genders respond equally to changes in the probability of arrest, with an elasticity around -0.14. Using a Blinder- Oaxaca type decomposition technique, we find that differences in incentives explain about 8 percent of the gender participation gap, while differences in responsiveness to changes in incentives, especially illegal earnings, explain about 56 percent of the gap. The fact that females behave differently than males has implications for the heterogeneity in response to crime control policies.

Modelling Crime Rate Using a Mixed Effects Regression Model

In this paper we propose a type of Mixed effects Regression Model, that is Hierarchical Linear Model to study crime rate. We derive the estimators of the proposed model and discuss the asymptotic properties of the model. In order to test for the practicability of the proposed model, we estimate a crime equation using a panel dataset of the provinces in Kenya for the period 1992 to 2012 employing the REML estimator. Our empirical results suggest that Poverty Rate, Unemployment rate, Probability of arrest, population Density and police rate are correlated to all typologies of crime rate considered. The results further suggest that crime rate is better explained at provincial level as compared to country level.

Economic impact of psychiatric relapse and recidivism among adults with schizophrenia recently released from incarceration: a Markov model analysis

Objectives:To develop an economic model that estimates the cost burden of psychiatric relapse and recidivism among patients with schizophrenia recently released from incarceration from a US state government perspective.Methods:A Markov state-transition model was developed to estimate the numbers of schizophrenia patients recently-released from incarceration who would experience psychiatric relapse and/or arrest and re-incarceration over a period of 3 years, along with corresponding costs. The model includes three health states: (1) in community, on therapy, (2) in community, off therapy, and (3) incarcerated. It is assumed that a patient’s probability of psychiatric hospitalization increases with treatment discontinuation, and the probability of arrest increases with the occurrence of a prior psychiatric hospitalization. Data from the US Census and Bureau of Justice Statistics were used to estimate the model population. Published literature was used to estimate the risks of psychiatric relapse, arrest, and all cost inputs. State-specific incarceration rates and sentence length data (from the state of Florida) were applied. The impact on outcomes and costs was evaluated by varying the rates of anti-psychotic treatment following release from incarceration and the annual risk of medication discontinuation.Results:Among 34,500 persons released from incarceration in the state of Florida annually, 5307 were estimated to have schizophrenia. The cumulative 3-year costs to the state government were $21,146,000 and $25,616,000 for criminal justice and psychiatric hospitalization costs, respectively ($3984 per patient criminal justice; $4827 per patient hospitalization costs). A relative 20% increase in the proportion of patients receiving antipsychotic treatment following release from incarceration decreased total cumulative costs over 3 years by $1,871,100 ($353 per patient).Conclusions:The economic impact of psychiatric relapse and recidivism among patients with schizophrenia is substantial from the state government perspective. This general model can be made state-specific by utilizing local criminal justice data sources.

Does Juvenile Delinquency Reduce Educational Attainment?

This paper investigates the effect of delinquency in youth on subsequent educational attainment. To do so, we focus on delinquent acts committed by age 16 and examine their impact on two measures of educational attainment: high school graduation and college graduation. Using information on males from the extremely rich National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997, we find plausible evidence that delinquency by age 16 reduces the likelihood of graduating from high school and college. This effect is driven by early initiators, those who offend intensely, and by those whose delinquent activities involve income generating acts. Importantly, the impact of delinquency on education is not confined to those who have interaction with the criminal justice system, or gang members. Further analysis suggests that a mechanism through which delinquency impacts on education is expected returns to crime, as reflected by subjective beliefs about the probability of arrest for a property crime. This effect is stronger for those of higher ability and is robust to accounting for attitude to risk.

The Difference “Hate” Makes in Clearing Crime

Studying hate crime clearance rates provides an opportunity to uncover the factors that influence police effectiveness for a relatively new legal category—one that was designed ostensibly to protect minorities, and that may pose unique challenges for police reporting, defining, and investigation. Using multiple years (2005-2010) of data from the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS), we estimate event history models to compare the incident-level predictors and relative probability of arrest for hate and nonbias crimes. As an aggregate category, we find hate crimes are less likely to clear than nonbias crimes. However, the most prototypical hate crimes—White-on-non-White incidents motivated by racial and ethnic bias—are as likely to clear as the most successfully cleared nonbias crimes. Our results suggest that only hate crimes that fit popular constructions of “normal victims and offenders” receive investigative outcomes comparable with otherwise similar nonbias offenses.

Deterrent, Instigator, or Irrelevant? The International Criminal Court and Atrocities in the Democratic Republic of Congo: A Case Study of the RCD-Goma (Nkunda Faction)/CNDP/M23 Rebel Group

Do International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutions initiated during ongoing conflict prevent, exacerbate, or have no effect on atrocities? I address this question in the context of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) by developing a case study of the impact of ICC action vis-a-vis the RCD-Goma (Nkunda faction)/CNDP/M23, a major rebel group active in DRC from 2004 through 2013. Specifically, I analyze the effects of ICC actions, including the unsealing of an ICC arrest warrant for Bosco Ntaganda, at the time a senior commander in the CDNP, in April 2008, the ICC’s first conviction in March 2013, and Ntaganda’s surrender to the ICC in March 2013, on atrocities committed by this group. I employ both quantitative and qualitative analysis. The quantitative component involves interrupted time series analysis of data from the GED and ACLED conflict events databases on attacks against civilians (which I use to proxy atrocities) attributable to the RCD-Goma (Nkunda faction)/CNDP/M23. The qualitative component employs process tracing to test my quantitative findings for spuriousness and identify causal mechanisms linking ICC actions to observed outcomes; the primary data source for this analysis is interviews conducted with former members of the RCD-Goma (Nkunda faction)/CNDP/M23, current and former members of other belligerent groups, civil society activists, and local and international media. My analysis yields three main findings. First, the publication of the arrest warrant for Bosco Ntaganda had no significant effect on violence against civilians, mostly because Ntaganda and other CNDP leaders perceived a low probability of arrest and other future legal sanctions resulting from the warrant. Second, the ICC’s first conviction, for Thomas Lubanga on charges of conscripting child soldiers, was associated with higher levels of violence against civilians, as renewed calls for Ntaganda’s arrest after the Lubganga verdict contributed to the outbreak of the M23 rebellion and increased violence against civilians. Finally, Ntaganda’s voluntary surrender to the ICC was associated with lower levels of violence against civilians, mostly because it significantly weakened the M23. Based on these findings, I suggest a reframing of the debate over the impact of prosecutions to focus on identifying and explaining variation in their impact across stages of the legal process and other relevant categories, rather than whether or if prosecutions generate effects.

Racial/Ethnic Disparities in Boys’ Probability of Arrest and Court Actions in 1980 and 2000

This study was designed to examine whether the shift in juvenile justice policy toward punitive sanctioning disproportionately impacted racial and ethnic minority boys. Using a nationally representative sample derived from the National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth 1979 and 1997 (NLSY79, NLSY97), this study examines 1980–2000 differences in contact with the justice system, controlling for self-reported delinquency. Results confirmed that boys in 2000 were significantly more likely than those in 1980 to report being charged with a crime. Once charged, they were less likely to be diverted and more likely to be convicted and placed in a correctional institution. Consideration of interaction effects revealed these effects were magnified for Black and Hispanic males. These findings provide evidence of a general trend toward more punitive treatment of boys in the juvenile justice system, especially racial and ethnic minority boys.