Probability Method Research Articles

Investigation of the Relationship between Help-Seeking Behaviour and Juvenile Delinquency among Secondary School Students in Kisii County, Kenya

This study is about committing anti-social activities like: theft, illicit sexual relations, use and trafficking of drugs, fighting, destruction of property and cheating (juvenile Delinquency) by high school students ages 14-18 in Kisii Central Sub-County, Getembe Zone, Kenya. The purpose of the study was to explain the extent to which suicidal ideation, help-seeking behaviour, and use of media influence JD among secondary school students in Kisii Central Sub-County, Getembe Zone. It was also about the extent of differences in JD according to family type and perceived social class. The objective dealt with in this paper was to investigate the relationship between help-seeking behaviour and Juvinile Delinquency among secondary school adolescents in Kisii county, Kenya. Kisii Central Sub-County was selected because no similar study has been done there and because acts of student violence are apparent there. Probability and non-probability sampling methods were used. Questionnaires were used to collect data from students and teachers, interview schedules for principals, and focus group discussion questions were used on parents. The results indicated that respondents who scored highly in help-seeking behaviour were more delinquent than those that had a low score. The conclusion was that young people who think that they do seek help probably seek it from irresponsible people. It was therefore recommended that youths should be sensitized to seek help from caring persons in order to reduce cases of juvenile delinquency.

Epidemiological characteristics of human respiratory syncytial virus infection in febrile respiratory syndrome cases in China from 2010 to 2020

Objective: To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) in cases of febrile respiratory syndrome in China from 2010 to 2020. Methods: Based on the sub-project of the National Science and Technology Major Project for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control "Infectious Disease Monitoring Technology Platform", active monitoring of febrile respiratory syndrome cases was conducted in sentinel hospitals in 31 provinces across China (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Chinese Taiwan) from January 2010 to December 2020, resulting in the inclusion of 191 441 cases. Clinical specimens of monitored cases were screened for HRSV nucleic acid, and the differences in HRSV detection rates among different age groups, regions, and time periods were analyzed using the χ2 test/Fisher exact probability method. Results: Among the 191 441 cases of febrile respiratory syndrome in China from 2010 to 2020, the age group M (Q1, Q3) was 9 (2, 40) years old, with 83 773 cases (43.8%) in the <5 years old group. There were 113 660 males, with a male-to-female ratio of 1.5∶1.0. There were as many as 105 508 cases (55.2%) of scattered children and preschool children. About 70 565 cases (36.9%) lived in the northern region. There were 13 858 HRSV positive cases, with a total positive rate of 7.2%. The positive rate of HRSV detection in the northern population was 5.7% (4 004/70 565), which was lower than that in the southern population (8.2%, 9 854/120 876), and the difference was statistically significant (χ2=407.4, P<0.001). HRSV was detected in all age groups, with the highest positive rate of 23.9% in the <6 months age group. The month with the highest positive rate was December, and autumn and winter were the main epidemic seasons. Both northern and southern HRSV subtypes were mainly infected with type A, with a low proportion of mixed infections of type A and type B. Conclusion: HRSV is a common pathogen causing respiratory infections in children from 2010 to 2020. It can be detected throughout the year and shows the main peak of prevalence in autumn and winter. The HRSV strain is mainly classified as a type A infection.

Association between 99mTc-PSMA SPECT/CT imaging and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) levels post-endocrine therapy in patients with prostate cancer and bone metastases

AimTo investigate the association between positive lesions detected by 99mTc-PSMA SPECT/CT and blood levels of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) in patients with prostate cancer (PCa) and bone metastasis undergoing endocrine therapy. MethodsA retrospective analysis was performed on 43 patients diagnosed with PCa bone metastasis who underwent endocrine therapy. PSA, ALP, whole body bone imaging and 99mTc-PSMA SPECT/CT imaging were collected from all patients (Among them, 17 cases were re-examined 99mTc-PSMA SPECT/CT imaging). According to the results of the first 99mTc-PSMA SPECT/CT imaging for detecting bone metastasis, all cases were divided into two groups: positive group and negative group. The relationship between 99mTc-PSMA imaging and PSA and ALP was analyzed by ROC curve. Fisher exact probability method was used to examine the changes in imaging radioactivity uptake, PSA, and ALP levels in 17 patients after treatment, and P < 0.05 was statistically significant. ResultsAll 43 patients had different degrees of radioactive concentrations on whole-body bone imaging. The first 99mTc-PSMA SPECT/CT imaging showed positive bone metastases in 31 cases and negative bone metastases in 12 cases. ROC curve analysis of PSA and ALP, AUC were 0.778 and 0.770, respectively. When PSA > 1.13 ng/mL, 99mTc-PSMA SPECT/CT imaging diagnostic sensitivity was 93.55%, and specificity was 66.67%. When ALP was >86U/L, the diagnostic sensitivity of 99mTc-PSMA SPECT/CT imaging was 64.52%, and the specificity was 83.33%. In 17 cases, the PSA level decreased in 7 and increased in 10. There were 10 cases of increased ALP and 7 cases of decreased ALP levels. In the second 99mTc-PSMA imaging lesion, there were 9 cases with decreased or no uptake, and 8 cases with increased uptake or number of lesions. The changes in 99mTc-PSMA uptake by Fisher’s exact probability method were statistically significant (P < 0.05, P = 0.006, and P = 0.006, respectively), and ALP level was not statistically significant (P = 0.563). Conclusion99mTc-PSMA SPECT/CT imaging can detect PCa bone metastases, which are related to PSA levels. When PSA > 1.13 ng/mL, the sensitivity of diagnosis and detection of positive bone metastases is higher, and when ALP is >86U/L, 99mTc-PSMA imaging has higher specificity.

Zoledronic acid-treated rats show altered jaw histology and gene expression in non-exposed MRONJ

BackgroundDiagnosis and management of medication-related osteonecrosis of the jaws (MRONJ) prior to clinical exposure induced by trauma may lead to improved patient management. Currently, few studies have examined early histologic and molecular MRONJ-related changes in the jaws. PurposeThis study aimed to identify histological and gene expression changes in the maxilla and mandible of Sprague-Dawley (SD) rats after zoledronic acid (ZA) treatment. Study Design, Setting, and SampleThis was an in-vivo animal study. The experiments were conducted in the laboratory at the Stomatology Hospital of Tianjin Medical University. A total of 12 SD rats were included. Predictor variableThe predictor variable was ZA exposure. Twelve SD rats were divided into two groups: experimental (n = 6) and control (n = 6), and they were intraperitoneally injected with ZA and saline, respectively. Main outcome variableThe outcome variables were histological and molecular changes. The maxilla, mandible, and ilium bone tissue samples were examined using Masson's trichrome and hematoxylin-eosin staining. Gene expression changes were identified using transcriptome sequencing, Kyoto encyclopedia of genes and genomes (KEGG), and gene interactome network analysis. The key changes were validated using the quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction and immunohistochemistry. CovariatesNone. AnalysesThe t-test, Chi-square test, and Fisher's exact probability method were used for statistical analyses using the Statistical package for the social sciences software (version 26.0). ResultsAll animals remained healthy during the experiments. Histological staining revealed that the percentage of empty bone lacunae in the maxilla and mandible was significantly higher than that in the ilium (P < 0.01). In total, 552 genes were screened using transcriptome sequencing. The sonic hedgehog (Shh) signaling pathway was highly enriched. The key gene for the Shh interaction was distal-less homeobox 5 (Dlx-5). The Shh, Dlx-5, and bone morphogenetic protein 2 genes and protein expression levels in the maxilla and mandible were higher in the experimental group than in the control group (P < 0.05). Conclusions and RelevanceMRONJ-induced osteonecrosis and gene expression changes precede trauma-induced clinical changes in the SD rat model. These findings may provide additional support for timely and clinically early diagnosis and intervention.

Research on the configuration of electromechanical suspension based on inertial force attenuation structure

To address the critical challenges impeding the progress and utilization of electromechanical suspensions, this paper examines the negative consequences of inertial mass on the acceleration of the sprung mass and structural reliability issues. It then introduces and optimizes two novel suspension configurations featuring a series buffering and damping structure (SBDS). Subsequently, a two-degree-of-freedom electromechanical suspension model with SBDS is proposed and formulated. Utilizing the probability method, the paper also derives the vibration transmission characteristic formulas for the SBDS-integrated suspension. Theoretical analysis suggests that the integration of SBDS is advantageous in reducing the inertial force generated by the inertial mass in electromechanical suspensions. Additionally, the impact of parameter variations in SBDS on suspension characteristics is examined, providing theoretical guidance for the design of this structure. Building upon the proposed suspension theory incorporating the novel SBDS configuration, a butterfly spring buffer is employed to replace the connecting rod in the traditional electromechanical suspension design. Bench tests validate that the new electromechanical suspension configuration with SBDS addresses the issue of performance degradation in the high-frequency range due to inertial mass, thereby enhancing the overall performance of electromechanical suspensions and facilitating their further development and application.

Comparing Two Methods for Testing the Efficiency of Sports Betting Markets

Sports betting markets can be considered strongly efficient if expected returns on all possible bets on an event are equal. If this form of efficiency holds, then there is a direct mapping from betting odds into probabilities of outcomes of sporting events. We compare two regression-based methods for testing this form of efficiency that have been used in previous research: One that uses normalized probabilities as the explanatory variable for event outcomes and one that uses the inverse of the decimal odds. We show that the normalized probability method produces good tests of the null hypothesis of strong market efficiency but that the inverse odds method does not, with results biased against finding favorite-longshot bias. We illustrate this finding using large datasets of bets and outcomes for tennis and soccer and also with realistic simulations.

Analgesic Characteristics of Ultrasound-guided Great Auricular Nerve Block in Middle Ear Surgery: A Prospective Randomized Controlled Preliminary Trial

PurposeTo explore the analgesic characteristics of ultrasound-guided great auricular nerve (GAN) block to further improve pain management. DesignSingle-center, prospective, randomized, controlled, and double-blind preliminary clinical trial. MethodsThirty-seven patients who underwent middle ear surgery were included in this study: 15 in the GAN block group (the large ear nerve block [NB] group) and 22 in the traditional anesthesia group (control [CON] group). After induction of anesthesia, the NB group was given an ultrasound-guided GAN block (0.25 % Ropivacaine 2 mL), while the CON group was exempt from the GAN block. The patient’s basic information, perioperative information, the region, and numeric rating scale of postoperative pain (at 1 hour, 6 hours, 12 hours, and 24 hours), and adverse reactions were recorded. Repeated measurement analysis, t test, and Fisher exact probability method were used for statistical analysis. FindingsCompared with the CON group, the numeric rating scale in the NB group was lower after surgery (1 hour: 1.18 ± 0.35 vs 0.27 ± 0.20, P = .023; 6 hours: 1.82 ± 0.37 vs 1.13 ± 0.39, P = .203; 12 hours: 1.05 ± 0.19 vs 0.20 ± 0.10, P < .001; 24 hours: 0.55 ± 0.17 vs 0.13 ± 0.09, P = .029). In the NB group, the region of pain was merely concentrated in the ear canal. In the CON group, the pain extended to areas outside the ear canal, such as tragus and mastoid (at 12 hours, P = .006). There was no significant difference in the risk of postoperative adverse reactions between the two groups. ConclusionsUltrasound-guided GAN block can relieve patients’ pain after middle ear surgery, especially in the area outside the ear canal.

Evaluation of effective kinetic parameters and adjoint flux distribution using iterated fission probability in the iMC Monte Carlo code

The iterated fission probability (IFP) method enables assessment of adjoint flux-weighted kinetic parameters, i.e., effective kinetic parameters, in Monte Carlo (MC) simulation, an essential capability in modern MC codes. This method can be extended to calculate adjoint flux-weighted quantities within a prescribed phase-space, enabling the estimation of adjoint flux distributions. The iMC Monte Carlo code, developed at the Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST), is proficient in both calculating effective kinetic parameters and adjoint flux distributions. This paper presents benchmark results verifying the code’s capabilities. Critical device configurations are considered for evaluating kinetic parameters, compared with the Serpent2 code results. Both multi-group and continuous-energy benchmarks are solved to assess IFP-based spatial- and energy-wise adjoint flux distributions, and comparison is made against deterministic transport calculations. Results show that effective kinetic parameters can be accurately estimated, and acceptable adjoint flux distributions can be obtained using the iMC code.

External validation and comparison of four prediction scores for severe maternal morbidity

BackgroundSevere maternal morbidity (SMM) is increasing in the United States. Several tools and scores exist to stratify an individual's risk of SMM. ObjectiveWe sought to examine and compare the validity of four scoring systems for predicting SMM. Study DesignThis was a retrospective cohort study of all individuals in the Consortium on Safe Labor dataset, which was conducted from 2002 to 2008. Individuals were excluded if they had missing information on risk factors. SMM was defined based on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention excluding blood transfusion. Blood transfusion was excluded due to concerns regarding the specificity of International Classification of Diseases codes for this indicator and its variable clinical significance. Risk scores were calculated for each participant using the Assessment of Perinatal Excellence (APEX), California Maternal Quality Care Collaborative (CMQCC), Obstetric Comorbidity Index (OB-CMI), and modified OB-CMI. We calculated the probability of SMM according to the risk scores. The discriminative performance of the prediction score was examined by the areas under receiver operating characteristic curves and their 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). The area under the curve for each score was compared using the bootstrap resampling. Calibration plots were developed for each score to examine the goodness-of-fit. The concordance probability method was used to define an optimal cutoff point for the best-performing score. ResultsOf 153, 463 individuals, 1115 (0.7%) had SMM. The CMQCC scoring system had a significantly higher area under the curve (95% CI) (0.78 [0.77–0.80]) compared to the APEX scoring system, OB-CMI, and modified OB-CMI scoring systems (0.75 [0.73–0.76], 0.67 [0.65–0.68], 0.66 [0.70–0.73]; P<.001). Calibration plots showed excellent concordance between the predicted and actual SMM for the APEX scoring system and OB-CMI (both Hosmer–Lemeshow test P values=1.00, suggesting goodness-of-fit). ConclusionThis study validated four risk-scoring systems to predict SMM. Both CMQCC and APEX scoring systems had good discrimination to predict SMM. The APEX score and the OB-CMI had goodness-of-fit. At ideal calculated cut-off points, the APEX score had the highest sensitivity of the four scores at 71%, indicating that better scoring systems are still needed for predicting SMM.

Simulations of IDCR and SOWER Antarctic minke whale abundance surveys

The International Whaling Commission (IWC) conducted abundance line‐transect surveys of Antarctic minke whales (Balaenoptera bonaerensis) during the International Decade of Cetacean Research (IDCR) between 1978/79 and 2003/04. These surveys continued throughout 2004/05–2009/10 under the Southern Ocean Whale and Ecosystem Research (SOWER) programme. Several methods used to analyse these data resulted in very different abundance estimates. In order to evaluate the accuracy of these methods, the IWC Scientific Committee recommended using simulated line‐transect data. The software package TRANSIM was therefore modified to generate simulated line‐transect data that emulated an IDRC/SOWER survey in a study area populated with whales that followed the distribution, density and behaviour of Antarctic minke whales. Simulations incorporated factors that could potentially bias resulting abundance estimates, and in order to investigate the effects of these factors on the resulting abundance estimates, simulated datasets were generated for different scenarios, each of which incorporated combinations of factors that were chosen using the mirror‐image fold‐over partial factorial method that is designed to identify factors related to biased estimates. This paper describes the programme used to generate these datasets and reports on the robustness of the statistical methods applied to analyse them. In addition, a brief discussion is included on how this information was used when the actual line‐transect data were analysed. The statistical methods investigated were the hazard probability method (OK), integrated hazard probability method (IM), spatial point independence method (SPL) and standard method. After developers analysed the simulated data, they used this information to improve their analytical methods. The results reported here focus on the performance of the most advanced versions of the OK and SPL methods compared with the standard method as of 2009. In general, SPL estimates of group density were negatively biased, OK estimates were positively biased, standard estimates were the most negatively biased and IM estimates were the least biased. Density estimates from SPL were less biased than estimates from OK in the complex scenarios that contained spatial gradients and correlations between density, location and weather conditions. The OK method was less robust when: (1) closing‐mode data collection procedures were simulated; (2) whale groups were diving in a non‐synchronous fashion; and (3) there were complex spatial patterns. In almost every case, the density estimates from the OK method were greater than the SPL methods, on average by 10–15%. These observations assisted the development of more robust analysis methods and highlighted which factors should be addressed when analysing the actual data.

The application of cut-umbilical cord milking in term cesarean deliveries for preventing anemia and iron deficiency of newborns

Objective: To anlysis the efficacy and safety of cut-umbilical cord milking (C-UCM) compared with immediate cord clamping in preventing anemia and iron deficiency among term cesarean-delivered newborns. Methods: A total of 485 pregnant women planning to deliver by cesarean section were recruited in this randomized controlled trial in Hunan Maternal and Child Health Hospital and Liuyang Maternal and Child Health Care Hospital from July 2016 to April 2019. A block randomization was conducted to evenly allocate them to the controlled group and the C-UCM group. In the controlled group, the cord was clamped within 30 seconds as routine. In the C-UCM group, the cord was first clamped at 25 cm from the newborn's navel, and then the blood in the cord was gently squeezed into the newborn's body until the cord became white and shriveled. The cord was clamped twice at 2-3 cm from the newborn's navel subsequently. Neonatal jaundice, hyperbilirubinemia and polycythemia were monitored before discharge. After the newborns discharged, their hemoglobin, red blood cell count, hematocrit (at the age of 1, 6 and 12 months) and serum ferritin (at the age of 6 and 12 months) were followed up; body length and weight were measured; and information about their feeding and iron supplementation were collected (at the age of 1, 6, 12 and 18 months). The two groups were compared by t test, Mann-Whitney U test, χ² test, or Fisher exact probability method. The hospital was set as a random item, and the mixed effects regression model was used to evaluate the effect of C-UCM on relevant indicators of cesarean-delivered newborns. Results: There were 244 women in the C-UCM group with an average age of (31.9±4.4) years, and 241 in the control group with an average age of (31.8±4.2) years (P>0.05). There was no statistically significant difference between the C-UCM group and the control group at 1, 6 and 12 months of age in hemoglobin [(123.6±14.5) vs (122.2±14.5) g/L, (115.3±9.4) vs (114.1±8.5) g/L, (115.6±9.6) vs (116.1±12.6) g/L] or anemia incidence rate [15.2% (17/112) vs 18.4% (19/103), 22.7% (34/150) vs 26.8% (44/164), 22.3% (25/112) vs 19.5% (22/113)] (all P>0.05). There was no statistically significant difference between the two groups at 6 and 12 months of age in serum ferritin [M (Q1, Q3), 39.9 (24.9, 61.8) vs 43.6 (25.2, 100.9) μg/L, 40.3 (25.4, 259.2) vs 40.3 (26.4, 167.6) μg/L)] or iron deficiency incidence rate [6.1% (5/82) vs 4.2% (3/72), 6.7% (5/75) vs 3.8% (3/80)] (all P>0.05). There were also no significant difference between the two groups in other indicators, such as the Z-score of weight-for-length, the incidence of neonatal jaundice, and the incidence of neonatal hyperbilirubinemia (all P>0.05). After adjusting for the relevant covariates, there were still no significant effects of C-UCM on these outcomes above. Conclusions: Compared to immediate cord clamping, the intervention of gently squeezing 25 cm of the cord does not significantly reduce the risk of anemia or iron deficiency in term cesarean-delivered newborns, nor does it have a significant impact on infant growth and development. Yet this intervention does not increase the risk of jaundice or hyperbilirubinemia in newborns as well.

Analysis of genetic etiology of 234 deaths in the pediatric intensive care unit with suspected genetic diseases

Objective: To explore the genetic etiology of pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) mortality cases and summarize their clinical characteristics. Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study. The study population consisted of 234 children who died within 7 d after admitted to the PICU of Children's Hospital of Fudan University from January 2017 to December 2021. The clinical diagnoses, laboratory test results, and genetic testing results were collected. These patients were divided into the pathogenic gene variation positive (PGVP) group and the pathogenic gene variation negative (PGVN) group according to the results of genetic testing. The Mann-Whitney U test and Pearson's chi-square test or Fisher's exact probability method were used to compare the clinical characteristics between the groups. Results: A total of 234 cases were enrolled, including 139 (59.4%) males and 95 (40.6%) females. The age at death was 1.0 (0.4, 3.7) years old and the length of PICU stay was 16 (6, 33) days. There were 62 cases (26.5%) PGVP, and the mutated pathogenic genes included immune genes (23 cases (37.1%)), metabolic genes (11 cases (17.7%)), neuromuscular genes (11 cases (17.7%)), cardiovascular genes (4 cases (6.5%)), and genes of other systems (13 cases (21.0%)). The age at death in PGVP cases was significantly lower than in PGVN cases (0.6 (0.3, 1.4) vs. 1.3(0.5, 4.3) years old, Z=3.85, P<0.001). Compared with the PGVN group, the PGVP group had a higher incidence of family history and chronic complex conditions (CCC) than the PGVN group (6.5% (4/62) vs. 0.6% (1/172) and 93.5% (58/62) vs. 76.2% (131/172), χ2=8.87, P=0.018 and 0.003, respectively). Children in the PGVP group were admitted with higher incidence of severe infection, decreased consciousness or coma, moderate-to-severe anemia, thrombocytopenia, protracted diarrhea, and abnormalities in muscle strength or tone than those in the PGVN group (74.2%(46/62) vs. 45.9%(79/172), 50.0%(31/62) vs. 35.5%(61/172), 32.3%(20/62) vs. 18.0%(31/172), 21.0%(13/62) vs. 10.5%(18/172), 25.8%(16/62) vs. 4.1%(7/172), 16.1%(10/62) vs. 5.2%(9/172), χ2=14.63, 4.04, 5.41, 4.37, 24.30, 7.25, all P<0.05). Pathogenic genes that occurred more than twice included IL2RG (5 cases), SMN1 (4 cases), and SH2D1A (3 cases, including 2 single gene varients and 1 copy number varient). Conclusions: Among the deceased cases in the PICU, the main genetic causes are immune-related, metabolic, and neuromuscular genetic disorders. Critically ill children with a family history, CCC, and early features such as severe infections, decreased consciousness or coma, moderate to severe anemia, thrombocytopenia, protracted diarrhea, or abnormalities in muscle strength or tone should be closely monitored and undergo early genetic testing.

Analysis of Vina Film Sentiment on Social Media X Using The Naïve Bayes Method

The increasingly rapid development of technology and information, one of which is the internet. Where users can share opinions and discuss various topics or problems around them, namely social media One of the news items that frequently appears as a trending topic on X is the Vina film controversy. However, with the large amount of review data available, it will be difficult to process manually. Therefore, sentiment analysis is needed to see whether people's tendencies toward the Vina film case are positive or negative. The stages carried out were data collection taken via web scrapping with an initial amount of data of 833 and processed through the preprocessing stage, including cleaning, case folding, normalization, stopword removal, tokenization, and stemming, the data became 830. The application of the Naïve Bayes algorithm in this research uses the probability method to classify and predict 664 training data and 166 test data, with the help of the Python library. The accuracy calculation results show quite good performance with TF-IDF weighting producing an accuracy of 78%, precision of 80%, and recall of 90%, f1-score of 84%. Analysis from this research shows that the dominance of negative sentiment is 517 while positive sentiment is 313. The amount and quality of training data play an important role in system quality, where high data quality provides better accuracy in predicting sentiment classes.

Optimization-based stacked machine-learning method for seismic probability and risk assessment of reinforced concrete shear walls

Efficient seismic risk assessment aids decision-makers in formulating citywide risk mitigation plans, providing insights into building performance and retrofitting costs. The complexity of modeling, analysis, and post-processing of the results makes it hard to fast-track the seismic probabilities, and there is a need to optimize the computational time. This research addresses seismic probability and risk assessment of reinforced concrete shear walls (RCSWs) by introducing stacked machine learning (Stacked ML) models based on Bayesian optimization (BO), genetic algorithm (GA), particle swarm optimization (PSO), and gradient-based optimization (GBO) algorithms. The study investigates 4-, to 15-Story RCSWs assuming different bay lengths and soil types to build a comprehensive database based on the incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) subjected to 56 near-field pulse-like and no-pulse records. Having 227,200 and 63,384 data points for a median of IDA curve (MIDA) and seismic probability curve, respectively, the proposed Stacked ML models have shown good performance on curve fitting ability by accuracy of 99.1% and 99.4% for MIDA and seismic fragility curves, respectively. In addition, the proposed models can estimate the mean annual frequency, λ, which is a key parameter in seismic risk assessment of buildings. To provide the results of the study for general buildings, a user-friendly GUI is proposed that facilitates result utilization, offering insights into seismic performance levels, providing the estimated MIDA and seismic failure probability curves, and mean annual frequency calculations for specific performance levels and seismic hazard curves.

COMPARISON OF RELIABILITY AND ACCURACY OF RESEARCH RESULTS USING RANDOM AND QUOTA SAMPLING

The author analyses the reliability and accuracy of the results of sociological research conducted using quota sampling. The author discusses the advantages and disadvantages of using quota samples compared to random samples. The main focus is on the representativeness of the obtained data and the possibility of extrapolating them to the general population.In the problem statement, the author noted that a mechanical method of forming a random sample is most often used to study public opinion in Ukraine. The main feature of this method is to ensure an equal probability of selection of each element of the general population. The author emphasizes that although this method allows for easy calculation of possible errors and analysis of collected information, it has a disadvantage in representing specific groups of the population.To address this problem, the author proposes using an equal probability method of forming quota samples, which allows selecting respondents according to their quotas in the general population, thus providing a more representative model of the studied population. However, in the scientific community, there is no consensus on the use of indicators in forming quota samples, and all existing works remain at the level of theoretical assumptions.The author attempts to empirically substantiate the effectiveness of quota samples through experimentation. The hypothesis of the experiment assumes that the results of studies conducted according to quotas can be extrapolated to the general population with high accuracy and reliability using mathematical and statistical methods. During the experiment, both quota and random samples were used to compare the results.The general population consisted of 489 musical compositions represented in different proportions to eliminate the subjective component from the experiment and provide the opportunity to clearly assess and record the parameters of the initial general population for further comparison with the results of different types of samples. The musical compositions had two parameters: the name of the performer for identification and the duration of the track for digital and statistical evaluation. The analysis was carried out using a specially developed program for statistical data analysis. The collected data allowed for the assessment of the average track duration, median, skewness, standard deviation, and other statistical indicators.The results of the experiment showed that the quota sample provides more accurate results when the quotas are followed during the selection of elements of the general population. The sample obtained by random selection without adhering to quotas showed greater variability in indicators such as mean, median, skewness, and standard deviation relative to the general population. Thus, it was concluded that quota samples have advantages in sociological research, especially when specific groups of the population need to be considered.The author emphasizes the need for further research and improvement of quota sampling methods to enhance the accuracy and reliability of sociological studies, which are important for examining particular social issues.

Creating a community advisory board for pediatric bladder health.

Pediatric lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) are highly prevalent in neurologically healthy school-aged children. However, no evidence-based programs exist to prevent or treat LUTS in the community setting. To address this, we established the first community advisory board (CAB) that aims to identify individual and societal structures impacting pediatric bladder health in Northern California's Bay Area and co-design culturally relevant bladder health interventions. Probability and non-probability sampling methods were used to recruit community stakeholders to the CAB. Our final CAB comprised of two parents, two community health workers, one educator, one pediatric urology registered nurse, and one pediatrician. The CAB met quarterly during the 1-year study period. Bi-directional feedback identified community-level barriers to bladder health, particularly in the school environment, and the need for tailored resources to teach children and families about healthy bladder behaviors. The CAB co-designed school-based bladder health interventions, including bladder health posters, and provided feedback on three school-based research study proposals. The CAB will continue to guide and inform future community-engaged research efforts.

The Storage Tank Explosion Damage and the Effectiveness of Control Measures in the Chemical Industrial Parks of Smart Cities

Safety is one of the goals of a smart city. To study storage tank explosion damage in a city’s chemical industrial parks, determine the position of control measures according to the situation, and realize the analysis of the measured utility, we proposed the area damage probability importance distribution. In this way, the prediction and prevention of risk in chemical industrial parks can be achieved intelligently. The concept of area damage probability importance distribution was given, and the utility analysis method of the control measures for storage tank explosion accidents was put forward. It is concluded that the area damage probability importance distribution represents the change degree of damage probability: that is, the damage degree of storage tank explosion in a chemical industrial park. The control measures for a storage tank explosion can be set up in varying positions, as the explosion damage is mainly caused by shock waves; the blast walls are selected as the measure set, and the calculation method for the area damage probability is modified. By comparing the calculated area damage probability distribution before and after, evaluation of the control measures’ effectiveness can be achieved. Finally, the flow chart of the algorithm is given. The example analysis shows that the calculation process and analysis results meet the design requirements of the algorithm. The effectiveness of the method, the distribution characteristics, and the significance and function of the importance distribution of damage probability are discussed. This provides an effective method for smart cities to predict and prevent the impact of an explosion at chemical industrial parks.

Technology Intensification and Farmers’ Welfare: A Case Study from Karnataka, a Semi-arid State of India

Technology adoption has been advocated to be an important way to improve agricultural productivity and welfare of the farmers in the semi-arid regions across the globe. Government of Karnataka implemented Bhoosamrudhi programme in four districts of the state (Bidar, Chikballapur, Dharwad and Udupi) as a pilot project to increase the crop yield and income of smallholder farmers. This programme was launched on the theme of technology adoption, along with convergence among different departments of agriculture. Farmers have been classified into five categories based on their levels of technology intensification to assess the impact of different levels of technology intensification on their income level. The research is built on a primary survey conducted in pilot districts of the state in 2018 over a sample of 1,465 farmer households. The results are generated using econometric methods of propensity score matching (PSM) and inverse probability weighted with regression adjustment (IPWRA), which highlight that higher the intensification, higher the net returns to the farmers. The results state that non-adopters would benefit additional ₹3,200 per month if they adopt at least one level of technology intensification. Hence, this programme turned out to be a successful model for smallholder farmers in semi-arid region of India. Steps should be taken to maintain and expand the momentum of the adoption to ensure food and livelihood security in the economy. JEL Codes: Q16, Q54, Q55, C13

Unveiling the untreated: development of a database algorithm to identify potential Fabry disease patients in Germany

BackgroundFabry disease (FD), an X-linked lysosomal storage disorder, is caused by mutations in the gene encoding α-galactosidase A, resulting in lysosomal accumulation of globotriaosylceramide and other glycosphingolipids. Early detection of FD is challenging, accounting for delayed diagnosis and treatment initiation. This study aimed to develop an algorithm using a logistic regression model to facilitate early identification of patients based on ICD-10-GM coding using a German Sickness Fund Database.MethodsThe logistic regression model was fitted on a binary outcome variable based on either a treated FD cohort or a control cohort (without FD). Comorbidities specific to the involved organs were used as covariates to identify potential FD patients with ICD-10-GM E75.2 diagnosis but without any FD-specific medication. Specificity and sensitivity of the model were optimized to determine a likely threshold. The cut-point with the largest values for the Youden index and concordance probability method and the lowest value for closest to (0,1) was identified as 0.08 for each respective value. The sensitivity and specificity for this cut-point were 80.4% and 79.8%, respectively. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis of the potential FD patients with at least two codes of E75.2 diagnoses was performed.ResultsA total of 284 patients were identified in the potential FD cohort using the logistic regression model. Most potential FD patients were < 30 years old and female. The identification and incidence rates of FD in the potential FD cohort were markedly higher than those of the treated FD cohort.ConclusionsThis model serves as a tool to identify potential FD patients using German insurance claims data.

Analysis of the relationship between intestinal segmented filamentous bacteria and rotavirus infection in children

Objective: To investigate the association between intestinal colonization of segmented filamentous bacteria (SFB) and the risk of rotavirus infection, and the possible mechanisms by which SFB resist rotavirus infection. Methods: This case-control study enrolled 50 children aged 0 to 5 years who present to the outpatient Department of Children's Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine with diarrhea and positive stool tests for rotavirus. The children were divided into rotavirus enteritis group and control group consisting of 55 children with non-gastrointestinal and non-infectious surgical diseases.The age and sex composition of the two groups was matched. The DNA of the fecal flora was extracted and SFB was detected by real-time fluorescence quantitative PCR analysis. The children in the rotavirus enteritis group and the control group were subgrouped by age and sex to analyze the differences in SFB positivity rates between different groups, and further compare and analyze the differences in SFB positivity rates between these two groups of children in the ≤2 years old subgroup and the >2-5 years old subgroup. Neutralization test was performed with p3340 protein and rotavirus to determine the relationship between rotavirus infection rate and p3340 concentration in Vero cells. χ2 test or Fisher's exact probability method was used for comparison between the two groups. Results: There were 50 children in the rotavirus enteritis group with an age of (1.7±0.9) years, and 55 children in the control group with an age of (1.8±1.1) years. The positive rate of SFB in children with rotavirus enteritis showed a declining trend across ages groups, with the highest rate of 10/14 in the ≤1 year old group, followed by 67% (14/21) in the >1-2 years old group, 9/15 in the >2-5 years old group, and there was no statistically significant difference (P=0.867). The positive rate of SFB in the control group was 12/15 in the ≤1 year old group, 95% (19/20) in the >1-2 years old group, 50% (10/20) in the >2-5 years old group, with statistical significance (P=0.004). The positive rate of SFB in children with rotavirus enteritis was 74% (20/27) in males and 56% (13/23) in females (χ2=1.71, P=0.192). In the control group, it was 79% (22/28) in males and 70% (19/27) in females (χ2=0.49, P=0.485). The positive rate of SFB was 66% (33/50) in the rotavirus enteritis group and 75% (41/55) in the control group, with no statistically significant (χ2=0.56, P=0.454). In the children ≤2 years old, the SFB positivity rate was 69% (24/35) in the rotavirus enteritis group and 89% (31/35) in the control group, with a statistically significant difference (χ2=4.16, P=0.041). However, in the children >2-5 years old, no statistically significant difference was observed, with the positive rate of SFB being 9/15 in the rotavirus enteritis group and 50% (10/20) in the control group (P=0.734). Pearson correlation analysis revealed a negative correlation between rotavirus infection and SFB positivity (r=-0.87,P<0.001). As the concentration of the p3340 specific protein increased, the luminescence intensity of the luciferase in the Vero cells, which were suitable for cultivating rotavirus, exhibited a decreasing trend (F=4.17, P=0.001). Conclusions: SFB colonization in infants less than 2 years old is associated with a reduced risk of rotavirus infection. Cloning of specific SFB functional protein p3340 neutralizes rotavirus infection of Vero cells, and this mechanism of targeting rotavirus infection differs from the common antiviral mechanism.