An analytical model for predicting flexural strains on a toughened glass panel generated by the impact of ice is presented in this paper. The time-history of the generated surface tensile strains can be used to predict the fracture probability of glass in a projected hailstorm scenario. As demonstrated in this article, the strain intensity is insensitive to changes in the panel size, positions of impact, and boundary conditions. The development of flexural strain at the point of contact is controlled purely by the initial generation of waves. This wave-controlled phenomenon can be explained by the early occurrence of the maximum flexural strain at the point of impact in advance of the arrival of reflected waves from the plate boundary. Thus, only the size of the ice sphere, impact velocity, temperature, and panel thickness are relevant to the prediction. The model for predicting flexural strain utilises considerably less computation time than numerical models. The derivation of expressions for predicting maximum strains involved investigations into the change in contact force and radius of the contact area with time. Integrating these relationships gave predictions of the maximum curvature and surface strains on the glass panel. The model has been validated by comparison of the simulated and measured quantities.