Probability Of Colonization Research Articles

Prevalence of stochastic processes in the fire-mediated reassemblage of the soil arthropod community of a pine forest

Wildfires are significant disruptors of established communities, but natural fire regimens are essential to sustaining biodiversity in fire-prone ecosystems. Besides plants, soil arthropods are highly affected by wildfires, but their communities are also highly resilient to such catastrophic events. It is known that both stochastic (local extinction, dispersion, and colonization probabilities) and deterministic (environmental and biotic filters) processes take part in the reassembly of biotic communities after wildfires. However, the contribution of stochastic and deterministic processes in reassembling soil arthropod communities after wildfires remains unclear, and it is largely unknown how this is affected by fire severity. This study reports on the trophic guilds, taxa composition, and alpha and beta diversity partitioning of a soil arthropod community over one year, considering unburnt forest and two levels of fire severity in a pine forest in the eastern mountainous region of Mexico. The wildfire had a positive effect on the abundance of saprophagous species, especially in moderate-fire severity sites. Overall, the diversity of the community of soil arthropods has increased over time since the fire. Taxa turnover contributed beyond random expectations to the observed beta diversity, suggesting that stochastic processes predominated in the reassemblage of the soil arthropod community. We conclude that the changes in the alpha and beta diversity of the postfire soil arthropod community were affected by the severity of the wildfire and by the time that had passed since the fire event, showing a capacity for recovery to this type of disturbance.

Multiyear monitoring of threatened iconic arboreal mammals in a mid-elevation conservation reserve in eastern Australia.

Multiyear investigations of population dynamics are fundamental to threatened species conservation. We used multiseason occupancy based on spotlight surveys to investigate dynamic occupancy of the koala and the greater glider over an 8‐year period that encompassed a severe drought in year 6. We combined our occupancy estimates with literature estimates of density to estimate the population sizes of these species within the focal conservation reserve. Both species showed substantial yearly variation in the probability of detection (koala: 0.13–0.24; greater glider: 0.12–0.36). Detection of the koala did not follow any obvious pattern. Low detection of the greater glider coincided with the drought and two subsequent years. We suggest the low detection reflected a decline in abundance. The probability of occupancy of the koala was estimated to be 0.88 (95% CI: 0.75–1.0) in year 8. Autonomous recording units were also used in year 8, enabling an independent occupancy estimate of 0.80 (0.64–0.90). We found no evidence of a drought‐induced decline in the koala. Habitat variables had a weak influence on koala occupancy probabilities. The probability of occupancy of the greater glider changed little over time, from 0.52 (95% CI: 0.24–0.81) to 0.63 (0.42–0.85) in year 8. Modeling suggested that the probability of colonization was positively influenced by the percentage cover of rainforest. Increased cover of these nonbrowse trees may reflect thermal buffering, site productivity, or soil moisture. We estimate that our study reserve is likely to contain >900 adult koalas and >2400 adult greater gliders. These are among some of the first reserve‐wide estimates for these species. Our study reserve can play an important role in the conservation of both species.

Secretive marsh bird habitat relationships at mid‐continent spring migration stopover sites

AbstractDespite several secretive marsh bird (SMB) species being listed as critically imperiled throughout the mid‐continent of North America, limited information on SMB distribution and habitat use within primary migratory corridors results in uncertainty on contributions of wetlands in mid‐latitude states toward their annual cycle needs. Our objectives were to quantify temporal patterns of SMB wetland occupancy during spring migration at a mid‐latitude state and evaluate the relationships between SMB colonization probability and water‐level management practices, and the resulting habitat conditions during spring migration. We conducted a 2‐year, dynamic occupancy study (2013–2014) that included 6 rounds of repeated call‐back surveys to detect the presence of 5 SMB species (i.e., Virginia rail [Rallus limicola], sora [Porzana carolina], king rail [R. elegans], least bittern [Ixobrychus exilis], and American bittern [Botaurus lentiginosus]) during spring (Apr–Jun) on 107 wetlands across 8 conservation areas and 4 national wildlife refuges throughout Missouri, USA. We detected sora most frequently, followed by least bittern, American bittern, Virginia rail, and king rail. Coefficient estimates indicated colonization probability for all species was positively associated with emergent vegetation cover and negatively associated with amount of open water. Open water was the only variable in the best supported model explaining American bittern site colonization, to which they were negatively associated. Virginia rail colonization had a strong positive association with vegetation height, whereas least bittern and sora site colonization were influenced positively by water depth and agriculture, respectively. Based on the habitat associations within and among SMB species identified in this study, wetland managers can tailor management strategies to optimize spring migration habitat for single‐ or multi‐species objectives.

Transient persistence of bobcat (Lynx rufus) occurrence throughout a human‐dominated landscape

AbstractHuman developments have detrimental effects on wildlife populations globally with carnivores being particularly sensitive. The bobcat (Lynx rufus) is often considered an adaptable mesocarnivore that occurs throughout varied landcover types within its wide distribution and may be less susceptible to the negative effects of development. Our objectives were to investigate the landscape occupancy dynamics of bobcats in a highly developed and densely populated region of the northeastern United States to evaluate the sensitivity of bobcat occurrence to natural and anthropogenic landscape features. We established a large‐scale camera trapping survey throughout Rhode Island, USA, sampling from 2018 to 2020. Using dynamic occupancy models, we found initial site occupancy was positively influenced by the amount of forested wetland habitat, while increasing road density and shrub cover negatively influenced the probability of site colonization. Surprisingly, we found no hypothesized variables to influence site‐level extirpation probability, or any seasonal effects on dynamic parameters. Lastly, we found that forest cover and road density negatively influenced the probability of detection. The probability of occupancy was high, >0.8, throughout much of the study area (49%), but we also found relatively high site transients, with the probability a site would change occurrence status from season to season at ≈0.27 in the majority of the study area (70%). Our results show that although bobcats can persist in human‐dominated landscapes, they require contiguous natural areas to do so. Future expansion of road infrastructure may reduce habitat connectivity and increase road mortalities, thus jeopardizing the population.

Dynamic Occupancy of Wild Asian Elephant: A Case Study Based On the SMART Database from the Western Forest Complex in Thailand

Understanding distribution patterns is essential for the long-term conservation of megafauna, particularly the Asian elephant (Elephas maximus). We investigated the dynamic occupancy of Asian elephants in the Thung Yai Naresuan West Wildlife Sanctuary in Thailand. Asian elephant occurrences were recorded during patrol activities from 2012 to 2019. We applied a single-species dynamic occupancy model to examine the environmental factors influencing habitat occupancy of Asian elephant across multiple seasons. The best-supported model, based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC), indicated that the normalized difference vegetation index and elevation positively influenced the probability of colonization. In contrast, the distance to the nearest population source sites showed a negative association. The probability of local extinction was positively correlated with the distance to the nearest villages and population source sites. The predictive map indicated a higher probability of colonization in a remote mountainous region of the center of the protected area. Higher extinction probability was associated with areas of dense human activity and far from population source sites connecting the Asian elephant population to the east. This is the first study to utilize a patrol database for assessing the dynamic occupancy of Asian elephants across multiple years. Our model provides insight into the dynamic distribution patterns of Asian elephants within the wildlife sanctuary and the factors that most influence these patterns. Long-term ecological data provide crucial information for assessing biodiversity, population status, and the ecological processes of focal wildlife species and are valuable for both protected area management and conservation efforts.

Estuarine retention of larvae: Contrasting effects of behavioral responses to turbulence and waves

AbstractThe intensity of small‐scale fluid motions varies among coastal seascapes, which could drive species‐specific behavioral adaptations in planktonic larvae. For example, inlets and estuaries typically have stronger turbulence and weaker surface gravity waves than the continental shelf. In the Mid‐Atlantic Bight, eastern mudsnails (Ilyanassa obsoleta) inhabit inlets and estuaries, whereas threeline mudsnails (Ilyanassa trivittata) inhabit the continental shelf. The two species' larvae respond differently to hydrodynamic signals: both hover in calm conditions and sink in response to vorticity, a signal of turbulence, while only shelf snail larvae also sink and swim up in response to accelerations, which can be large under waves. We investigated how these observed larval behaviors and more idealized ones affect retention and settlement in estuaries using numerical experiments. Virtual larvae were released and tracked in a regional model of Delaware Bay and the adjacent shelf. Behaviors that involved downward motions, including vorticity‐induced behaviors, helped concentrate larvae near the bottom and enhanced retention in the bay. In contrast, behaviors that involved upward motions, including acceleration‐induced behaviors, promoted export onto the shelf. Compared to neutral buoyancy, the vorticity‐induced behaviors also conferred longer residence times in the bay, higher settlement probabilities, and shorter pelagic larval durations, all of which would be advantageous to estuarine species. This integration of larval observations with simulations provides evidence that behavioral responses to coastal physics can reduce larval mortality by enhancing retention and settlement in native seascapes.

Modeling in an integrated ecosystem research framework to explore recruitment in Gulf of Alaska groundfish – Applications to management and lessons learned

The Gulf of Alaska Integrated Ecosystem Research Program (GOAIERP) supported multi-disciplinary analyses integrating physical and biological oceanography and modeling to examine how the environment influences survival and recruitment of early life stages of select commercially and ecologically important groundfish species. Recruitment is an important component of population variability, and understanding the processes influencing recruitment is central to fishery management and ecosystem planning. Determining the relative impact of advection and the environmental conditions experienced during transport between spawning and nursery areas is an inherently interdisciplinary problem. It requires consideration of physical and lower trophic level environments in concert with early life history dynamics. Here we discuss how Eulerian ecosystem models and Lagrangian Individual-Based Models for groundfish were integrated within the framework of an interdisciplinary observational program. Metrics (e.g. regionally-based averaged water temperature, integrated primary production, probability of juvenile settlement) were derived from model outputs as proxies for recruitment success. The recruitment indices were then correlated to estimated recruitment from stock assessments. Using the GOAIERP as a case study, we discuss the value that modeling can add to a field program and fisheries management planning, the challenges faced, and steps that can be taken to maximize program success. Coordination of model development, experimentation, and field sampling is necessary but can be challenging. Consideration of the appropriate sequence during data analyses and model development is critical. Careful consideration must be given to ensure that data collected in the field will inform, improve, or validate models. Sufficient time must be allocated within the program to incorporate field data collected during the program and mechanistic understandings into the models. Model outputs should be designed to have utility to management decisions and value to regional stakeholders. Collectively, the studies in this modeling program provide insight as to how models might be used to better understand recruitment processes and lead to recommendations to support the integration of ecosystem models into fisheries management.

Settlement Negotiations with Reference-Dependent Preferences

Abstract This article analyzes pretrial bargaining between litigants with reference-dependent preferences. We build on Bebchuk (1984, “Litigation and Settlement under Imperfect Information,” 15 Rand Journal of Economics 404–15) and, motivated by empirical evidence, assume that the referent is based on expectations. We find that reference dependence on behalf of plaintiffs increases the settlement probability. The fact that preferences are reference-dependent meaningfully influences comparative statics predictions. In our extensions, we discuss the role of fee shifting, the effect of having the referent based on the status quo instead of on expectations, and risk aversion.

Presence after three decades of red wood ants (Formica rufa group; Hymenoptera: Formicidae) in forests in an agricultural landscape

Conducting a repeat study of the presence of mound-building red wood ants (Formica rufa group) after a period of 30 years has rarely been done in Europe. From 1990 to 2020 such a study was done in an intensively used agricultural landscape with fragments of forest in the South-Eastern part of The Netherlands. In 1990, 280 nest mounds of three species of red wood ants and a hybrid were found in the forests and along forest edges. The highest occupancy was in forests of > 25 ha. The connectivity between the forest fragments mainly determined their presence. In 2020, only 160 nest mounds were found. The development of the colonies differed for Formica polyctena FĂśrster, 1850 (slight decrease), F. rufa Linnaeus, 1761 (substantial increase) and F. pratensis Retzius, 1783 (strong decrease). The differences between the species in this highly fragmented landscape may be due to differences in their colonization strategies of either nest splitting or producing swarms of young queens. Furthermore, the analyses show that the type of environment (in a forest or along a forest edge) determines the probability of extinction or settlement. There is a need to undertake management measures to prevent the extinction of species of red wood ants in the area studied. These measures include creating small clearings in dense forests, reducing shading due to overgrowing shrubs or herbaceous plants, and creating buffer zones around intensively manured fields. More long-term monitoring is needed in Europe to compare the circumstances in different regions, detect trends and evaluate the effects of protection measures.

Spatiotemporal prediction of vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus colonisation

BackgroundVancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE) is the cause of severe patient health and monetary burdens. Antibiotic use is a confounding effect to predict VRE in patients, but the antibiotic use of patients who may have frequented the same ward as the patient in question is often neglected. This study investigates how patient movements between hospital wards and their antibiotic use can explain the colonisation of patients with VRE.MethodsIntrahospital patient movements, antibiotic use and PCR screening data were used from a hospital in the Netherlands. The PageRank algorithm was used to calculate two daily centrality measures based on the spatiotemporal graph to summarise the flow of patients and antibiotics at the ward level. A decision tree model was used to determine a simple set of rules to estimate the daily probability of patient VRE colonisation for each hospital ward. The model performance was improved using a random forest model and compared using 30% test sample.ResultsCentrality covariates summarising the flow of patients and their antibiotic use between hospital wards can be used to predict the daily colonisation of VRE at the hospital ward level. The decision tree model produced a simple set of rules that can be used to determine the daily probability of patient VRE colonisation for each hospital ward. An acceptable area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.755 was achieved using the decision tree model and an excellent AUC of 0.883 by the random forest model on the test set. These results confirms that the random forest model performs better than a single decision tree for all levels of model sensitivity and specificity on data not used to estimate the models.ConclusionThis study showed how the movements of patients inside hospitals and their use of antibiotics could predict the colonisation of patients with VRE at the ward level. Two daily centrality measures were proposed to summarise the flow of patients and antibiotics at the ward level. An early warning system for VRE can be developed to test and further develop infection prevention plans and outbreak strategies using these results.

Mathematical modelling of microbial corrosion in carbon steel due to early-biofilm formation of sulfate-reducing bacteria via extracellular electron transfer

Sulfate-reducing bacteria (SRB) are the most studied microorganisms related to severe episodes of microbially influenced corrosion (MIC). A mechanism used by SRB to corrode steel alloys is the extracellular electron transfer (EET), which was described by the biocatalytic cathodic sulfate reduction (BCSR) theory. This theory was supported by several experimental research and some mathematical approaches. However, mathematical modelling that represents the effect of the EET on pit development and the subsequent changes in surface topography has not been reported. In this study, a mechanistic mathematical model of microbial corrosion induced by SRB through EET was developed and implemented. The developed model used data from previously reported experiments to describe the phenomenon and define stoichiometric and kinetic parameters. Results of biofilm development and growth-associated corrosion (i.e. weight loss and maximum pit depths) obtained by simulations were similar to experimental evidence reported in the literature. These simulations reveal that the main parameters that control MIC are the maintenance coefficient of SRB, the initial planktonic cell concentration, and the probability of surface colonization.

Breeding expansion of sandhill cranes in Quebec

AbstractSandhill cranes (Antigone canadensis) were broadly extirpated from much of their historical range in North America at the beginning of the twentieth century. Various conservation‐related legislation, such as the United States Migratory Bird Treaty Act, have assisted with population recovery. The eastern population of sandhill cranes has been growing rapidly since the 1980s and is thought to have expanded its geographic range to Quebec, Canada. Understanding the colonization and habitat use by the species in previously unoccupied breeding areas is necessary to develop and apply management measures. Using a dynamic occupancy modeling approach, we investigated the recent colonization and extirpation patterns of sandhill cranes in Quebec from 2004–2019. We combined data from 3 data sets (helicopter surveys, breeding bird atlas surveys, and eBird) to increase the spatial coverage and the number of species occurrence records while accounting for imperfect detection probability. Detection probability was highest for the helicopter survey (0.70), whereas the 2 other data sets had relatively low detection levels (0.10–0.26). Based on a simulation study, we found that excluding the eBird data from the analysis produced more biased estimates than excluding the atlas and helicopter survey data sets. Throughout the study, sandhill cranes seemed to have completed their colonization of western Quebec and only recently started to nest in eastern areas. Initial occupancy increased with wetland cover and colonization probability increased weakly with the cover of agricultural areas, suggesting that in our study area sandhill cranes rely essentially on natural wetlands during the breeding season.

Hot, wet and rare: modelling the occupancy dynamics of the narrowly distributed Dixie Valley toad

Context Small population sizes and no possibility of metapopulation rescue put narrowly distributed endemic species under elevated risk of extinction from anthropogenic change. Desert spring wetlands host many endemic species that require aquatic habitat and are isolated by the surrounding xeric terrestrial habitat. Aims We sought to model the occupancy dynamics of the Dixie Valley toad (Anaxyrus williamsi), a recently described species endemic to a small desert spring wetland complex in Nevada, USA. Methods We divided the species’ range into 20 m × 20 m cells and surveyed for Dixie Valley toads at 60 cells during six primary periods from 2018 to 2021, following an occupancy study design. We analysed our survey data by using a multi-state dynamic occupancy model to estimate the probability of adult occurrence, colonisation, site survival, and larval occurrence and the relationship of each to environmental covariates. Key results The detection probabilities of adult and larval toads were affected by survey length and time of day. Adult Dixie Valley toads were widely distributed, with detections in 75% of surveyed cells at some point during the 3-year study, whereas larvae were observed only in 20% of cells during the study. Dixie Valley toad larvae were more likely to occur in cells far from spring heads with a high coverage of surface water, low emergent vegetation cover, and water temperatures between 20°C and 28°C. Adult toads were more likely to occur in cells with a greater coverage of surface water and water depth >10 cm. Cells with more emergent vegetation cover and surface water were more likely to be colonised by adult toads. Conclusions Our results showed that Dixie Valley toads are highly dependent on surface water in both spring and autumn. Adults and larvae require different environmental conditions, with larvae occurring farther from spring heads and in fewer cells. Implications Disturbances to the hydrology of the desert spring wetlands in Dixie Valley could threaten the persistence of this narrowly distributed toad.

Colonization and extinction dynamics and their link to the distribution of European trees at the continental scale

AbstractAimThe population processes that drive tree species distribution are still widely debated. We test the hypotheses that metapopulation processes of colonization and extinction are linked to predictions of species distribution models.LocationEurope: Spain, France, Germany, Finland and Sweden.TaxonAngiosperms and Gymnosperms.MethodsFor 17 tree species analysed, we fitted species distribution models (SDM) relating environmental variables to presence–absence data across Europe. Then, using independent data from national forest inventories across Europe, we tested whether colonization and extinction probabilities are related to SDM occurrence probabilities. Finally, we assessed the probability of presence at metapopulation equilibrium depending on colonization and extinction probabilities.ResultsWe found that for most species at least one process (colonization/extinction) is related to SDM occurrence probability, but rarely both (only two species). Depending on the species, the link was either for colonization or for extinction, but relationships were generally weak. In addition, the metapopulation models tended to overestimate the occurrence probability at equilibrium.Main conclusionsOur study shows that metapopulation processes are only weakly related to SDM occurrence probability and call for caution in extrapolating SDM models to metapopulation dynamics.

Individual variation in marine larval‐fish swimming speed and the emergence of dispersal kernels

Dispersal emerges as a consequence of how an individual's phenotype interacts with the environment. Not all dispersing individuals have the same phenotype, and variation among individuals can generate complex variation in the distribution of dispersal distances and directions. While active locomotion performance is an obvious candidate for a dispersal phenotype, its effects on dispersal are difficult to measure or predict, especially in small organisms dispersing in wind or currents. Therefore, we analyzed the effects of larval swimming on dispersal and settlement of coral‐reef fish larvae using a high‐resolution biophysical model. The model is, to date, the only biophysical model of marine larval dispersal that has been statistically validated against genetic parentage estimates of larval origin and destination, and incorporates empirically‐estimated larval behaviors and their ontogeny. Larval swimming, in combination with depth, orientation and navigation behaviors, actually reduced dispersal distances compared to those of passive larvae. Swimming had no consistent effects on long distance dispersal, but increased the spread of settlement locations. Swimming speed, in contrast, did not consistently affect median dispersal distances, but faster swimming larvae had greater mean and maximum dispersal distances than slower swimming larvae. Finally, faster larval swimming speeds consistently increased the probability of settlement. Our analysis shows how larval swimming differentially affects multiple properties of dispersal kernels. In doing so, it indicates how selection could favor faster larval swimming to increase settlement and local retention, which may actually result in longer dispersal distances as a by‐product of larvae trying to locate habitat rather than to disperse greater distances.

Sharing detection heterogeneity information among species in community models of occupancy and abundance can strengthen inference.

The estimation of abundance and distribution and factors governing patterns in these parameters is central to the field of ecology. The continued development of hierarchical models that best utilize available information to inform these processes is a key goal of quantitative ecologists. However, much remains to be learned about simultaneously modeling true abundance, presence, and trajectories of ecological communities.Simultaneous modeling of the population dynamics of multiple species provides an interesting mechanism to examine patterns in community processes and, as we emphasize herein, to improve species‐specific estimates by leveraging detection information among species. Here, we demonstrate a simple but effective approach to share information about observation parameters among species in hierarchical community abundance and occupancy models, where we use shared random effects among species to account for spatiotemporal heterogeneity in detection probability.We demonstrate the efficacy of our modeling approach using simulated abundance data, where we recover well our simulated parameters using N‐mixture models. Our approach substantially increases precision in estimates of abundance compared with models that do not share detection information among species. We then expand this model and apply it to repeated detection/non‐detection data collected on six species of tits (Paridae) breeding at 119 1 km2 sampling sites across a P. montanus hybrid zone in northern Switzerland (2004–2020). We find strong impacts of forest cover and elevation on population persistence and colonization in all species. We also demonstrate evidence for interspecific competition on population persistence and colonization probabilities, where the presence of marsh tits reduces population persistence and colonization probability of sympatric willow tits, potentially decreasing gene flow among willow tit subspecies.While conceptually simple, our results have important implications for the future modeling of population abundance, colonization, persistence, and trajectories in community frameworks. We suggest potential extensions of our modeling in this paper and discuss how leveraging data from multiple species can improve model performance and sharpen ecological inference.

Long-term occupancy dynamics of the threatened Cheat Mountain salamander and its competitors in relation to linear habitat fragmentation

Amphibians are declining globally and while many factors are contributing to this decline, habitat loss and degradation caused by climate and land use changes are among the most critical. Habitat degradation and increased interspecific competition are both concerns for long-term viability of the federally-threatened Cheat Mountain salamander (Plethodon nettingi) which is endemic to high elevations in West Virginia. In this study, we quantified the impacts of linear habitat fragmentation (i.e., a linear forest clearing for creation of a ski slope) on local colonization and extinction probabilities in adjacent forested habitat for the Cheat Mountain salamander and two co-occurring competitor species, eastern red-backed salamander (Plethodon cinereus) and Wehrle’s salamander (Plethodon wehrlei). We also quantified long-term changes in total occupancy of the species within the high elevation study area. We surveyed the salamander community annually from 1988 to 2021 using diurnal natural cover object searches at 43 plots, with 1988 representing three years following linear habitat fragmentation. For each species, we used dynamic occupancy models to identify and model influential covariates for initial occupancy, colonization, extinction, and detection probability. We found that distance to fragmentation was positively correlated with colonization probability for Cheat Mountain salamanders, indicating negative edge effects of the linear forest clearing. Distance to fragmentation was negatively correlated with colonization probability for eastern red-backed salamanders, potentially indicating this species benefited from increased solar radiation or reduced competition from Cheat Mountain salamanders. Predicted occupancy of eastern red-backed salamanders and Wehrle’s salamanders increased over the 34 year monitoring period, indicating potential for increased competitive interactions. Our study suggests that extensive linear habitat fragmentation could result in degraded habitat for Cheat Mountain salamanders in the adjacent forest, and that potential for interactions with competitor species is increasing in high elevation forest stands.

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment of Antimicrobial Resistant and Susceptible Staphylococcus aureus in Reclaimed Wastewaters.

The annual risks of colonization, skin infection, bloodstream infection (BSI), and disease burden from exposures to antibiotic-resistant and susceptible Staphylococcus aureus (S. aureus) were estimated using quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). We estimated the probability of nasal colonization after immersion in wastewater (WW) or greywater (GW) treated across a range of treatment alternatives and subsequent infection. Horizontal gene transfer was incorporated into the treatment model but had little effect on the predicted risk. The cumulative annual probability of infection (resulting from self-inoculation) was most sensitive to the treatment log10 reduction value (LRV), S. aureus concentration, and the newly calculated morbidity ratios and was below the health benchmark of 10-4 infections per person per year (ppy) given a treatment LRV of roughly 3.0. The predicted annual disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), which were dominated by BSI, were below the health benchmark of 10-6 DALYs ppy for resistant and susceptible S. aureus, given LRVs of 4.5 and 3.5, respectively. Thus, the estimated infection risks and disease burdens resulting from nasal colonization are below the relevant health benchmarks for risk-based, nonpotable, or potable reuse systems but possibly above for immersion in minimally treated GW or WW. Strain-specific data to characterize dose-response and concentration in WW are needed to substantiate the QMRA.

Factors Influencing Colonization and Survival of Juvenile Blue Crabs Callinectes sapidus in Southeastern U.S. Tidal Creeks

Tidal creeks along the southeastern U.S. and Gulf of Mexico coastlines provide nursery habitats for commercially and ecologically important nekton, including juvenile blue crabs Callinectes sapidus, a valuable and heavily landed seafood species. Instream and watershed urbanization may influence the habitat value that tidal creeks provide to blue crabs. We investigated natural and anthropogenic factors influencing juvenile blue crab occupancy dynamics in eight first-order tidal creeks in coastal North Carolina (USA). An auto-logistic hierarchical multi-season (dynamic) occupancy model with separate ecological and observation sub-models was fitted to juvenile blue crab presence/absence data collected over replicate sampling visits in multiple seasons at three fixed trapping sites in each creek. Colonization and survival are the processes operating on occupancy that are estimated with this formulation of the model. Covariates considered in the ecological sub-model included watershed imperviousness, the percent of salt marsh in each creek’s high tide area, percent salt marsh edge, site-level water depth, and site-level salinity. Temperature, salinity, and dissolved oxygen were covariates considered in the observation sub-model. In the ecological sub-model, watershed imperviousness was a meaningful negative covariate and site-level salinity was a positive covariate of survival probability. Imperviousness and salinity were each marginally meaningful on colonization probability. Water temperature was a positive covariate of detection probability in the observation sub-model. Mean estimated detection probability across all sites and seasons of the study was 0.186. The results suggest that development in tidal creek watersheds will impact occupancy dynamics of juvenile blue crabs. This places an emphasis on minimizing losses of natural land cover classes in tidal creek watersheds to reduce the negative impacts to populations of this important species. Future research should explore the relationship between imperviousness and salinity fluctuations in tidal creeks to better understand how changing land cover influences water chemistry and ultimately the demographics of juvenile blue crabs.

Does Treaty Commitment Enhance the Judicial Settlement of Territorial Disputes?

This paper examines whether states’treaty commitments increase the probability of judicial settlement of territorial disputes. The research question is significantly crucial as the international society has continuously developed a series of judicial mechanisms for the peaceful resolution of disputes while its empirical validity is not necessarily solid-rock. Utilizing the newly developed treaty commitment index and other datasets, the paper conducts the logistic regression to demonstrate the impacts of treaty commitments on three features of judicial settlement: issue claims, negotiations, and judicial settlement. The result of statistical analysis confirms that treaty commitments enhance the odds of issue claims and judicial settlement, but not necessarily the number of negotiations. The finding is mainly consistent with the constructivist claim that legal norms enshrined in treaty terms can socialize sovereign states.