Dynamic Occupancy of Wild Asian Elephant: A Case Study Based On the SMART Database from the Western Forest Complex in Thailand

Abstract

Understanding distribution patterns is essential for the long-term conservation of megafauna, particularly the Asian elephant (Elephas maximus). We investigated the dynamic occupancy of Asian elephants in the Thung Yai Naresuan West Wildlife Sanctuary in Thailand. Asian elephant occurrences were recorded during patrol activities from 2012 to 2019. We applied a single-species dynamic occupancy model to examine the environmental factors influencing habitat occupancy of Asian elephant across multiple seasons. The best-supported model, based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC), indicated that the normalized difference vegetation index and elevation positively influenced the probability of colonization. In contrast, the distance to the nearest population source sites showed a negative association. The probability of local extinction was positively correlated with the distance to the nearest villages and population source sites. The predictive map indicated a higher probability of colonization in a remote mountainous region of the center of the protected area. Higher extinction probability was associated with areas of dense human activity and far from population source sites connecting the Asian elephant population to the east. This is the first study to utilize a patrol database for assessing the dynamic occupancy of Asian elephants across multiple years. Our model provides insight into the dynamic distribution patterns of Asian elephants within the wildlife sanctuary and the factors that most influence these patterns. Long-term ecological data provide crucial information for assessing biodiversity, population status, and the ecological processes of focal wildlife species and are valuable for both protected area management and conservation efforts.