Dynamic occupancy modelling of Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) reveals increasing landscape use in Nepal

Abstract

Large mammals with general habitat needs can persist throughout mixed used landscapes, however, human-wildlife conflict frequently leads to their restriction to protected areas. Conservation efforts, especially for reducing conflicts with humans, can enhance tolerance of humans towards species like Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) in human-dominated landscapes. Here, we examine how elephant use in the Chure Terai Madhesh Landscape (CTML) covering the entire elephant range of Nepal changed between 2012 and 2020 in relationship to protection status and environmental conditions. We systematically surveyed ~ 42,000 km2 of potential habitat, by dividing the study area into 159 grid cells of 15 × 15 km2 and recorded elephant signs during the cool, dry season in three years (2012, 2018 and 2020). We analyzed the survey data in a single-species, multi-season (dynamic) occupancy modeling framework to test hypotheses regarding the influence of environmental conditions and protected area status on landscape use by elephants over time. The best-supported model included protected area effects on initial use, colonization, and detection probability as well as temporal variation in colonization and detection probability. Initial use and colonization rates were higher in protected areas, however elephants increasingly used cells located both inside and outside the protected areas, and the difference in use between protected areas and outside declined as elephants use became prevalent across most of the landscape. While elephant use was patchily distributed in the first year of surveys consistent with past descriptions of four sub-populations, elephant use consolidated into a western and eastern region in subsequent years with a gap in their distribution occurring between Chitwan and Bardiya National Parks. Our manuscript highlights the increasing landscape use by elephants in both protected areas and areas outside protected areas and suggests that management interventions that focus on reducing conflicts can promote greater use of both protected areas and areas outside of protected areas.