Proactive Adaptation Research Articles

Rancher Experiences and Perceptions of Climate Change in the Western United States

Ranchers in the western United States have long managed working landscapes prone to drought and wildfires. As the frequency and intensity of climate change impacts increase, ranchers will be front-line workers in the climate crisis—both adapting to climate impacts and managing landscapes with mitigation potential. This Forum paper first summarizes recent peer-reviewed research on ranchers and climate change in the western United States and then offers conceptual clarification of climate change adaptation based on this empirical research. Many ranchers remain unconvinced by climate science and express skepticism about long-term and anthropogenic climate change, though this may change as climate extremes intensify. Researchers working with ranchers often avoid climate change terminology, instead focusing on impacts, especially drought. Ranchers adjust their land and livestock management practices, as well as livelihood strategies, to cope with weather variability. Ranchers identify increasing management flexibility and diversifying ranch income as key adaptation strategies. While studies often focus on how to transition ranchers from reactive and toward proactive adaptation planning, few ranchers are actively planning for climatic change. Yet in this ranching context, many practices that begin as reactive coping strategies become longer-term adaptations as the impact, such as drought or recurrent wildfire smoke, persists. As ranchers observe positive outcomes of short-term adaptations or are unable to return to previous strategies, reactive coping strategies become proactive. We provide a conceptual clarification of adaptation in ranching systems, forwarding adaptation as a process, inclusive of a continuum from coping actions to more transformative adaptation strategies. Centering ranchers’ experiences, perceptions, and responses related to climate change can help land managers, agricultural advisors, and policy makers increase the pace and scale of adaptation and mitigation in range systems.

Assessing Vulnerability to Climate-Induced Humanitarian Crises: A Global Perspective

This research offers a comprehensive analysis of vulnerability to climate-induced humanitarian crises on a global scale. In a world increasingly impacted by the ramifications of climate change, understanding vulnerability becomes paramount. The study delves into the intricate web of factors that contribute to vulnerability, ranging from socio-economic disparities and healthcare infrastructure to environmental degradation and access to resources. Through a multidisciplinary approach, it identifies regions and populations most at risk, emphasizing the disproportionate burden borne by marginalized communities. The research underscores the urgency of proactive adaptation strategies, from climate-resilient infrastructure to community-based initiatives, and highlights the critical role of international cooperation. By providing evidence-based insights and policy recommendations, this research equips policymakers, humanitarian organizations, and communities with the tools needed to mitigate vulnerability, enhance resilience, and work collectively toward a more sustainable and equitable future in the face of a changing climate.

Assessing household perception, autonomous adaptation and economic value of adaptation benefits: Evidence from West Coast of Peninsular Malaysia

Climate change is causing sea-level rise, intense and frequent storm surge flooding, and significant shoreline erosion in Malaysian coastal areas. Consequently, coastal properties, infrastructure, and livelihoods are threatened. It has become apparent that adaptation at the household and community level is necessary to offset the adverse impacts of coastal hazards. The community needs to be made aware of the risks, acquire knowledge about adaptation options, and be empowered to take their own actions. Public perception and preference are therefore crucial for design and implementation of effective planning for climate change. Thus, this study assesses households' perception, adaptation measures and empirically estimates willingness to pay and preference for planned adaptation measures to guide policy instruments through public engagement. In Malaysia, ten highly vulnerable coastal areas in the Selangor coast were surveyed at the household level (n = 1016) through face-to-face interviews using a structured questionnaire. Regarding households’ perception and adaptation methods, most of the households in the highly exposed areas perceived less risk of inundation and sea-level rise threat and adopted less proactive adaptation and limited risk reduction behaviours during the extreme event. The study found that 66.9% of households were willing to pay for planned adaptation measures despite the limited income capabilities and in favour of moderate adaptation (23.9%). The binomial and ordinal regression results indicated that the probability of willingness to pay for planned adaptation measures significantly increases with age, prior exposure to coastal hazards, awareness, risk perception, community participation, being affected by property damage and loss of income due to extreme events. With increased monthly household income and access to telecommunication services, households will probably pay higher for better adaptation measures. A significant amount of perceived yearly adaptation benefits in the coastal districts revealed the economic value of extensive (22,969.50 MYR/5462.43 USD), moderate (21,853.20 MYR/5196.96 USD) and minimal adaptation measures (8022.90 MYR/1907.94 USD) that can be utilised to incentivise coastal adaptation plans. The findings suggest policies to incorporate social values to reduce vulnerability, enhance community resilience, and contribute to the knowledge gap of adaptation research in the coastal areas.

Adapting a family-involved intervention to increase initiation and completion of evidenced-based psychotherapy for posttraumatic stress disorder

Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is disabling condition among United States Veterans. Training programs for evidenced-based therapies have been rolled out nationally in the Veterans Health Administration (VHA), but provider adoption of these treatments is limited and rates of Veteran dropout are high. Increasing support for mental health therapy within the Veteran's social network would improve treatment engagement. We discuss the adaptation of Recovery-Oriented Decisions for Relatives' Support (REORDER)—a family-based intervention for individuals with serious mental illness— to create Family Support in Mental Health Recovery (FAMILIAR), an intervention that seeks to strengthen support partners' abilities to help Veterans engage in therapy. Our goal was to apply modifications to meet the needs of Veterans with PTSD and their support partners. We used input from Veterans, support partners, clinicians and VA system leaders to inform the modifications. Then, a multi-disciplinary intervention development team met to determine which modifications would be applied and how. We used the domains from the Framework for Adaptations and Modification (FRAME) to systematically track and describe modifications. Adaptations made to REORDER included changes in content, structure, and delivery format. The resulting intervention, FAMILIAR, was a 3–4 session intervention beginning prior to EBP initiation and continuing through sessions 3, 4 or 5 of the EBP. Sessions were designed for maximum flexibility and could be offered either in-person or virtually, and sessions involve interactions between the interventionist with the Veteran and support partner alone and together. We learned the importance of including diverse stakeholder perspectives to develop a comprehensive understanding of the needs of the target population and the health system. While feasibility and effectiveness testing is needed, we applied a proactive adaptation approach that we anticipate will make FAMILIAR successful in addressing patient, clinical, and system considerations of a family approach to increase Veteran engagement in PTSD treatment.

Caring for Psychological Distress of Patients With COVID-19: A Mixed-Method Cross-Sectional Study.

IntroductionThe 2019–2020 pandemic COVID-19 has become a global health crisis. While many recent studies on COVID-19 pandemic have focused on disease epidemiology and psychological status of patients, few have explored the multi-facet influential factors or combined perspectives from both the patients and healthcare workers. The purposes of this study were to: analyze the influencing factors of psychological distress of COVID-19 patients; and describe the experience of healthcare workers relieving psychological distress.Materials and MethodsThis study uses a mixed-method cross-sectional design, including a quantitative study and a qualitative study, targeting two populations: COVID-19 patient and health workers, respectively. In the quantitative part, we recruited a convenience sample of patients with COVID-19 from five hospitals in Wuhan, Hubei Province from 10 to 15 April, 2020. Besides, we collected data by using participants’ socio-demographic information sheet, the Connor-Davidson Resilience Scale-10, the Herth Hope Index, the Distress Thermometer, the Revised Chinese Version of Mishel Uncertainty in Illness Scale, and the Chinese Version of Wake Forest Physician Trust Scale. In the qualitative part, the participants were healthcare workers involved in medical aid missions in Hubei Province, China. Meanwhile, we used sampling with convenient and purposive, data collection with a semi-structured online video interview, and text transcription with Colaizzi’s phenomenological method.ResultsThe results reveal that 25.7% of patients reported higher level of psychological distress (n = 31, scoring ≥4). After controlling the sociodemographic variables, only severity of COVID-19 (β = 0.282, P = 0.025) and uncertainty in illness (β = 0.345, P = 0.007) shown significant effect on psychological distress in the regression model (F = 10.862, R2 = 0.222, P < 0.001). The experience of healthcare workers emerged five themes: Particularly needed psychological care, Manifestation of negative emotion, Manifestation of proactive adaptation, Strategies relieving psychological distress, and gains of healthcare workers after delivering effective psychological care.ConclusionThe 25.7% of patients with COVID-19 still suffered from psychological distress, which should receive timely attention from healthcare workers. And the severity of the disease and disease uncertainty have a significant impact on distress. It is critical to train the healthcare workers on detecting the different manifestation of psychological distress, offering timely disease related information, and applying communication strategies.

Farmers’ incremental adaptation to water scarcity: An application of the model of private proactive adaptation to climate change (MPPACC)

To support effective adaptation in the agriculture sector through policy and practice, it is essential to know how farmers, as the primary decision-makers regarding land use, understand and respond to water scarcity. Using the model of private proactive adaptation to climate change (MPPACC) as a basic framework for the study, the research investigated the effects of cognitive factors on maladaptation in farmers’ incremental adaptation to water scarcity as a climate risk. Data were collected during face-to-face interviews with 250 farmers of irrigated lands in Khuzestan province, Iran. The structural equation modeling results showed that the research model predicted 49% of the variance in adaptive behavior and 24% of the variance in maladaptation. These results provide strong empirical evidence for the hypothesis that maladaptation has an important and negative effect on determining adaptive behaviors (β = −.33). Moreover, perceived susceptibility (β = −.42, β = .38), perceived cost (β = −.21, β = −.32), and perceived self-efficacy (β = .31, β = −.29) directly affected both adaptive behavior and maladaptation. This study contributes to the literature by: i) adding to the limited number of studies on the MPPACC; ii) confirming the efficiency of this model in the water scarcity context, as the MPPACC can be used to understand behavior of people faced with an environmental threat; and iii) improving knowledge regarding the impact of belief in climate change on the constructs of the MPPACC.

Aadhaar and social assistance programming: local bureaucracies as critical intermediary

ABSTRACT Digital identity platforms are a recent e-governance innovation for improving social assistance programming in the development context, the most well-known of which is India's Aadhaar. While a significant number of studies have accumulated on Aadhaar, so far under-researched is the importance of local government practices and processes in shaping usage of the platform to support social assistance programming. In this paper we theorize how local government intermediation on digital identity platforms can improve social assistance programming through a case study of the Aadhaar-enabled Fertilizer Distribution System (AeFDS) in Andhra Pradesh. Our findings show how the relevance of the platform for low-income farmers depends crucially on the proactive adaptation of the technology by key local government intermediaries. From a policy perspective, this result emphasizes the importance of supporting efforts to acknowledge the role of responsive local government agencies in ensuring that centralized digital identity platforms remain relevant for implementing social assistance programming.

A Self-Adaptive Service Discovery Model for Smart Cities

City services are frequently supported by software services that are managed by service-oriented architectures. However, a large number of software services is likely to cause performance issues when discovering software services. The distributed organisation of services information improves discovery performance. Existing research proposes to organise services information according to service location, domains, or city context, keeping that organisation constant under an assumption that cities do not change. However, cities are dynamic environments where entities interact, causing events that in turn, effect changes in the city. The organisation of services information must evolve or it will become outdated, negatively impacting discovery performance. We propose a self-adaptive service model for smart cities to support service discovery. This model adapts the organisation of services information according to city events. We introduce a self-adaptive architecture that keeps track of the discovery metrics and moves information about services between registries to maintain the discovery efficiency. We evaluate the proposed model in simulated environments and a real IoT testbed. Results show that our model outperforms competitors when reactive adaptation is triggered by a specific event. However, proactive adaptation needs further research. Results from the real IoT testbed present the costs of the proposed model.

An assessment of systems, agents, and institutions in building community resilience to climate change: A case study of Charlottetown, Canada

While climate change manifests itself as a global phenomenon, impacts are experienced most acutely at the local scale. As a result, the onus of responding to climate change impacts through planning policies and practice falls on local government decision-makers. This qualitative study, based in Charlottetown, Canada, utilizes the framework of resilience theory to examine the relationship between systems, agents, and institutions in addressing climate vulnerability to build community resilience. Findings suggest that while non-municipal agents such as senior orders of government and external organizations are championing proactive adaptation through climate impact research and adaptation initiatives, the municipality has taken a non-urgent, reactionary approach in the face of climate stressors, often implementing initiatives that further exacerbate climate vulnerability. In the face of system vulnerabilities and cascading failures, deep institutional barriers, influencing and influenced by agents, contribute to the low prioritization of climate adaptation action. Institutional and agent-induced constraints at the municipal scale have led to the lack of internal initiative to act within the municipality, undermining the efforts of external organizations and senior orders of government. This study highlights the importance of robust local government agents and institutions as a prerequisite to enable local-scale climate adaptation.

Household external vulnerability due to climate change in Selangor coast of Malaysia

Coastal areas are already facing various risks due to increasing climate-related hazards that are likely to amplify with changing climate and make the households living in these areas even more vulnerable in terms of livelihoods and living conditions. This study attempted to evaluate vulnerability mapping of the coastal areas due to climate change using an integrative external and internal framework from three dimensions at the household level: exposure (E) to coastal hazards, sensitivity (S) due to demographic, socio-economic and structural characteristics and adaptive capacity (AC) relating to available assets and adaptive behaviour to cope with climate change impacts. Primary data on relevant indicators for assessing vulnerability were collected from ten historically eroded critical coastal areas along Selangor coastline, Malaysia. Using a pre-tested questionnaire, face-to-face interviews were conducted with 1050 randomly selected households. The collected data were used to estimate a composite vulnerability index (VI) from E, S, and AC indices. The vulnerability was classified according to four categories (low, moderate, high, very high) based on quarterly percentile distribution to evaluate the status. The results showed that about 96% of households had moderate exposure, and 4% had high exposure to climate change. All of the households exhibited moderate sensitivity. Low adaptive capacity was observed in 76% of households, moderate adaptive capacity in 17% and high adaptive capacity in 7%. Composite VI indicated that eight coastal areas (84% of households) are highly vulnerable, and two coastal areas (16%) are moderately vulnerable to climate change. The high vulnerability was attributed to increased exposure to shoreline erosion, high-risk perception, limited income, weak housing structures and lack of financial capital. The variation in exposure, socio-economic characteristics and available capitals resulted in different degrees of vulnerability in Selangor coastal areas indicating the diversified need for proactive adaptation planning at the local level. It is recommended that an appropriate mix of equitable community-based adaptations that adequately address the needs of the most vulnerable, focusing on poverty reduction, financial incentives and livelihood resilience and climate policies based on equity and justice, cultural and societal values are implemented to contribute to rural coastal households' resilience. This study is limited by the selective indicators of the external household vulnerability and subjective range of vulnerability classification.

Foresight-driven Approach to Support the Proactive Adaptation of Future Sustainability Related Regulatory Frameworks: European Port Cluster Study

Seaports (hereafter “ports”) within the European Union are facing increasingly restrictive regulation in the near future from various sources driven by climate change prevention and public opinion supporting “green” values. Ports are comp

An advanced climate resilience indicator framework for airports: A UK case study

• Elaborate all the indicators influencing airport climate resilience. • Develop a climate resilience evaluation method using evidential reasoning. • Use big data to quantify the airport climate resilience. • Conduct an empirical study to analyse the climate resilience of the UK airports. Due to increased extreme weather events, climate adaptation has become an essential issue to be addressed by all transport infrastructures, including airports. This paper aims to develop a Climate Resilience Indicator (CRI) framework for assessing airport climate resilience, which for the first time, considers: climate exposure, vulnerability and adaptive capacity simultaneously and advances the development of climate risk analysis of airports to a point where their adaptation and resilience can be quantified under uncertainty in data. Climate-related data was collected from multiple sources to evaluate an airport's performance against each indicator. An evidential reasoning (ER) approach is used to evaluate each airport by integrating all the indicators to derive its final CRI score. The findings provide valuable insights into how urgently an airport needs to deal with climate change and reveal information to help with resource allocation for different airports nationally through proactive adaptation planning.

Projected increases in western US forest fire despite growing fuel constraints

Escalating burned area in western US forests punctuated by the 2020 fire season has heightened the need to explore near-term macroscale forest-fire area trajectories. As fires remove fuels for subsequent fires, feedbacks may impose constraints on the otherwise climate-driven trend of increasing forest-fire area. Here, we test how fire-fuel feedbacks moderate near-term (2021–2050) climate-driven increases in forest-fire area across the western US. Assuming constant fuels, climate–fire models project a doubling of forest-fire area compared to 1991–2020. Fire-fuel feedbacks only modestly attenuate the projected increase in forest-fire area. Even models with strong feedbacks project increasing interannual variability in forest-fire area and more than a two-fold increase in the likelihood of years exceeding the 2020 fire season. Fuel limitations from fire-fuel feedbacks are unlikely to strongly constrain the profound climate-driven broad-scale increases in forest-fire area by the mid-21st century, highlighting the need for proactive adaptation to increased western US forest-fire impacts.

Looking back and looking forward\u2014adapting to extreme weather events in municipalities in western Norway

In October 2014, an extreme precipitation event hit western Norway, which caused flooding, landslides and severe damage to infrastructure and houses. Climate model projections for western Norway show that heavy precipitation events, such as the one in 2014, will increase in frequency and intensity in the future. This paper discusses barriers to proactive adaptation to high-impact weather events in two municipalities in western Norway. Interviews were conducted with representatives from municipalities in this region to understand the adaptation measures the municipalities had implemented after this event and the barriers to proactive adaptation to extreme events in the future. We found that the key barriers to proactive adaptation are lack of resources, lack of knowledge and lack of willingness to adapt. The magnitude of the event meant that only a few of the informants expected the municipality to be hit by such an extreme event again in the near future, and as such, they did not see a need for major adaptation measures. Further, some assumed that the municipality was sufficiently protected because their areas either were not directly affected or were secured after the event. Finally, some interviewees assumed that it is not possible to adapt to such high-magnitude events.

Formulating a 100-year strategy for managing coastal hazard risk in a changing climate: Lessons learned from Hawke’s Bay, New Zealand

Decision-makers, managers and communities in low-lying coastal regions face many challenges in planning for and adapting to escalating coastal hazard risk, given uncertainty about sea-level rise and complex and contested environmental and socio-economic futures. Collaborative and participatory approaches can help to address such challenges and enable proactive adaptation. However, there is limited empirical evidence of such approaches yielding outcomes that can genuinely be described as shifting business as usual, and fewer still that have informed institutional change. This paper provides such evidence based on an assessment of a novel collaboration between local government, Māori, stakeholders, community members, consultants and researchers in the formulation of a 100-year coastal hazard management strategy in Aotearoa New Zealand. Thematic analysis of interviews, surveys and workshop materials was used to distil lessons learned by participants involved in formulating this anticipatory long-term strategy. Results indicated the importance of deliberative, flexible and transparent governance processes that can enable collaboration amongst Māori, local and region-wide stakeholders, in a process consistent with and supported by the national governmental frameworks, and regulatory and non-regulatory measures. The importance of aligning scientific, local and Indigenous knowledges is highlighted. Furthermore, novel tools and methodologies were used in the strategy formulation process, hitherto not applied in a real-life coastal decision-making process, to address changing risk over time and uncertainties. This enabled the tailoring of strategic planning and decision processes to reflect local contexts and governance interactions. Adaptive pathways were developed to enable short-term actions to be taken while leaving open long-term options and alternative pathways available for future adjustment as the hazards and impacts intensify. The lessons learned from the development of the coastal management strategy offer insights to support future collaborative decision-making processes in climate change adaptation. They advance scholarly understanding about how sea-level rise risks can be addressed in a long-term strategic formulation process in a dynamic and ‘fit-for-purpose’ manner.

Climate Change and Utah Ski Resorts: Impacts, Perceptions, and Adaptation Strategies

Climate change is a threat to ski resorts, the ski industry, and mountain communities that rely on ski tourism. Ski resorts may be able to mitigate some of the social and economic impacts caused by climate change with proactive adaptation strategies. Using historical weather data, future climate projections, and interviews with ski resort managers in Utah (United States), this research investigates the effects of climate change on ski resorts across the state. We examine temperature change at all resorts within the state from 1980–2018 and climate projections from 2021–2100 under different climate change scenarios (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5). We also report on semistructured interviews with resort managers to provide insights into how resort leadership perceives the impacts of climate change, is implementing adaptation strategies, and is addressing barriers to adaptation. Many resorts in Utah are warming faster than global averages, and minimum temperatures are rising faster than maximum temperatures. By the end of the century, winter (December–March) minimum daily temperatures in Utah could warm an additional 6.0°C under the RCP 8.5 scenario near northern Utah resorts and 6.6°C near southern Utah resorts. Resort managers are concerned about shorter season lengths, shifting ski seasons, less snow cover, and poorer snow quality. Many resorts are already adapting, with the most common adaptations being snowmaking and diversifying outdoor recreation offerings (particularly during the summer and shoulder seasons). Barriers to adaptation reported by managers include financial costs, adequate water availability for snowmaking, and uncertainty about climate change projections. Climate change is already impacting Utah ski resorts, but adaptation practices can reduce the negative impacts to some degree at most resorts.

Temporo-cerebellar connectivity underlies timing constraints in audition.

The flexible and efficient adaptation to dynamic, rapid changes in the auditory environment likely involves generating and updating of internal models. Such models arguably exploit connections between the neocortex and the cerebellum, supporting proactive adaptation. Here, we tested whether temporo-cerebellar disconnection is associated with the processing of sound at short timescales. First, we identify lesion-specific deficits for the encoding of short timescale spectro-temporal non-speech and speech properties in patients with left posterior temporal cortex stroke. Second, using lesion-guided probabilistic tractography in healthy participants, we revealed bidirectional temporo-cerebellar connectivity with cerebellar dentate nuclei and crura I/II. These findings support the view that the encoding and modeling of rapidly modulated auditory spectro-temporal properties can rely on a temporo-cerebellar interface. We discuss these findings in view of the conjecture that proactive adaptation to a dynamic environment via internal models is a generalizable principle.

Farmers’ Perceived Vulnerability and Proactive versus Reactive Climate Change Adaptation in Chile’s Maule Region

Changes in climatic conditions are unavoidable and irreversible and an early and effective adaptation in farming systems will be vital for resilient agriculture. Although the extant literature has described factors that explain climate change adaptation, the roles of proactive versus reactive adaptation related to perceived vulnerability are still underexplored. The aim of our study was to open a new angle of discussion by linking farmers’ perceptions of vulnerability with their adaptation response, and exploring the dynamic of such a relationship. Semi-structured interviews with farmers were held in the Maule Region of central Chile (n = 36). The interview included questions o about main agricultural challenges, perceptions of climate change and its impact, adaptation strategies, and perceptions of vulnerability, exposure, sensitivity, and ability to adapt. In order to interpret the interview data, a content analysis procedure was followed. The results indicate that farmers respond differently by either engaging in proactive or reactive adaptation behavior. Furthermore, the patterns of either proactive or reactive adaptation behavior can be explained by structural factors and social and human capital. While structural factors, such as production systems and financial capital, explain engaging in adaptation to climate change, social and human capital act as enhancing factors that explain proactive adaptation. Future policies on adaptation behavior should focus on promoting proactive forms of adaptation behavior by developing and enhancing social connections and access to information, as well as on the provision of financial schemes to enable efficient and effective adaptation within the agricultural sector.

Global evidence of constraints and limits to human adaptation

Constraints and limits to adaptation are critical to understanding the extent to which human and natural systems can successfully adapt to climate change. We conduct a systematic review of 1,682 academic studies on human adaptation responses to identify patterns in constraints and limits to adaptation for different regions, sectors, hazards, adaptation response types, and actors. Using definitions of constraints and limits provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we find that most literature identifies constraints to adaptation but that there is limited literature focused on limits to adaptation. Central and South America and Small Islands generally report greater constraints and both hard and soft limits to adaptation. Technological, infrastructural, and ecosystem-based adaptation suggest more evidence of constraints and hard limits than other types of responses. Individuals and households face economic and socio-cultural constraints which also inhibit behavioral adaptation responses and may lead to limits. Finance, governance, institutional, and policy constraints are most prevalent globally. These findings provide early signposts for boundaries of human adaptation and are of high relevance for guiding proactive adaptation financing and governance from local to global scales.

Climate effects on US infrastructure: the economics of adaptation for rail, roads, and coastal development

Changes in temperature, precipitation, sea level, and coastal storms will likely increase the vulnerability of infrastructure across the USA. Using models that analyze vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation, this paper estimates impacts to railroad, roads, and coastal properties under three infrastructure management response scenarios: No Adaptation; Reactive Adaptation, and Proactive Adaptation. Comparing damages under each of these potential responses provides strong support for facilitating effective adaptation in these three sectors. Under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario and without adaptation, overall costs are projected to range in the $100s of billions annually by the end of this century. The first (reactive) tier of adaptation action, however, reduces costs by a factor of 10, and the second (proactive) tier reduces total costs across all three sectors to the low $10s of billions annually. For the rail and road sectors, estimated costs for Reactive and Proactive Adaptation scenarios capture a broader share of potential impacts, including selected indirect costs to rail and road users, and so are consistently about a factor of 2 higher than prior estimates. The results highlight the importance of considering climate risks in infrastructure planning and management.