Prison Admissions Research Articles

Ethnicity and Health Service Use in a Women's Prison

ABSTRACT This paper highlights the findings in relation to health need, ethnicity, and health service use among a sample of women in prison. Medical records review for 129 women and interviews with 15 women were conducted to determine factors associated with differential service use. Statistical analyses reveal that ethnicity and an interaction between ethnicity and whether one is on medication at prison admission (a health need variable) significantly predict extent of service use. Women of color use fewer services overall, with the exception of those on medication. Qualitative analyses reveal that women of color view the quality of medical care and the ways they are treated less positively than White women. Implications for equitable service provision are explored.

A small area analysis estimating the prevalence of addiction to opioids in Barcelona, 1993.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To determine the distribution of opioid use prevalence in small areas and its relation with socioeconomic indicators. DESIGN: Capture-recapture was applied using data from the Barcelona Drug Information...

Understanding provincial variation in incarceration rates

Using the rate (per hundred thousand total population) of those actually in custody serving sentences, the 1995 rates of imprisonment across the ten provinces vary from a low of 76 per hundred thousand (for Ontario) to a rate more than double that - 193 per hundred thousand - for Saskatchewan. An additional complexity is that those provinces with fairly similar overall. incarceration rates (Quebec, Ontario and B.C.) ship a dramatically different proportion of their imprisoned offenders to be housed in federally supported penitentiaries. Quebec, for example, houses only about 36% of its contribution to the prison population whereas Ontario and B.C. house 55% and 63% (respectively) of their prisoners provincially. The rate of those actually in custody (provincial and federal) on any given day is not highly related to that province’s (combined federal . and provincial) prison admission rate (Rho = .10). Instead, the number of long term admissions to penitentiaries (i.e., sentences of over two years) correlates quite highly with (combined federal and provincial) prison counts (Rho =. 78). Thus, an attack on long term sentences is more likely to result in sizable reductions in the number of people in custody than will the substitution of non-prison sanctions for short prison sentences. The differences in imprisonment rates among the provinces do not disappear when expressed in rates per thousand reported crimes or people charged and, in fact, the relationships between various measures of crime and prison counts are low and somewhat inconsistent.

Demand estimation with failure and capacity constraints: An application to prisons

A stochastic model for projecting demand for a population-driven, input-output facility that incorporates demographic changes, facility returns representing “failures”, and capacity constraints is proposed and demonstrated. The model is applied to the problem of prison population projection. The approach models the flow of inmates through the prison system, exploits the differences in the incarceration hazard rates of individuals in the general population and those who have been incarcerated previously, and explicitly considers the impact of constrained prison capacity on release policy and future admissions. First-time arrivals to prison are modeled as a Poisson process arising from the general population; recidivist arrivals are modeled using a failure model, where the reincarceration hazard rate is a function of age and race. The model is demonstrated for the State of North Carolina. The effect of limited prison capacity on the average time served is shown. Further, the results demonstrate that an early release policy will generate an increase in prison admissions through t'he return to prison of former inmates. The implications for current “get tough” sentencing policy initiatives relative to the prison crowding problem, the length of stay for offenders not included in the new policies, and the recursive effect of these policies on the input-output dynamics are considered. The results suggest the tradeoffs that exist between early release policies and capacity limitations.

Perpetual Incarceration Machine

The prison system is a perpetual incarceration machine growing on failure. This article explores structural impediments that contribute to parole failure and recidivism. Prisoners exit prison with few material resources and many obligations. Upon arrival at the work release centers, they are subjected to the demands of “collection counselors.” They complain about deductions from their employment checks, including restitution, court costs, fees for public defenders, and rent for work release beds. The correctional system perpetuates itself: Failures in work release, probation, and parole account for the majority of new prison admissions. Recommendations are provided for effective prison release programs.

The Paradox of Japanese Women's Rising Imprisonment Rate

Abstract While there has been a marked decrease in the use of imprisonment in Japan in the post-War era, there has been a startling rise in the female incarceration rate of late. This upsurge is due primarily to the increase in prison admissions of females convicted of stimulant-drug offenses. A careful longitudinal analysis of the distribution of other crimes for which women are sent to prison is presented, as is a discussion of sentence length. The changing role of women in the Japanese culture is also examined.

Toward a Political Model of Incarceration: A Time-Series Examination of Multiple Explanations for Prison Admission Rates

This study examines yearly shifts in prison admissions since 1950. The effects of political and economic determinants are investigated with measures of economic inequality, political variables, and unemployment. The delayed effects of broken families are measured with a lagged moving average of out-of-wedlock births. The findings show that inequality due to the presence of the rich and past out-of-wedlock birth rates matter, but unemployment is not related to prison admissions. The strength of the Republican Party and a presidential election year dummy also explain shifts in incarcerations. The results suggest that earlier work omitted theoretically important explanations.

Controlling prison population size

The number of people in prison is rising in many countries. In absolute terms, the United States is the extreme case: the incarceration rate per 100,000 population for persons confined in federal and state prisons grew by 333 per cent from 93 in 1972 to 403 on Iune 30, 1995. Those numbers omit local jail populations which raise the 1995 rate to approximately 654 per 100,000. In relative terms, however, since the late 1980s prison population growth in many countries has approximated that in the United States. In the Netherlands, where the total incarceration rate for sentenced and non-sentenced prisoners increased from less than 30 per 100,000 population in 1983 to more than 60 per 100,000 in 1995, prison cell capacity tripled from 3,789 in 1980 to 10,059 in 1994 (Tak, 1994). In England and Wales, the total prison population grew by 25 per cent from early 1993 to 1996, even though the Crirninal]usticeAct 1991 was expected to reduce the use of imprisonment (Bean, 1991; Ashworth, 1995}. In Italy and Portugal, likewise, total incarceration rates increased almost by half from 1991 to 1993 (Kuhn, 1996a, figures 3, 7). In France, the total incarceration rate grew by fifty per cent between 1983 and 1995 (Kuhn, 1996a, figure 4). There is no value-free or scientific way to determine optimal levels of prison use in any country. Imprisonment patterns change over time in individual countries and vary widely between countries. No single or several factors, including changes in crime or conviction rates, in the age composition of the population, or in economic trends or employment rates, explain differences over time or across national boundaries. Nor is it obvious how to compare the 'punitiveness' of countries' punishment policies. Claims about comparative punitiveness are often made on the basis of rankings of incarceration rates per I00,000 population. It has long been observed that other measures might be used perhaps prison admissions per year per 100,000 (Kommer, 1994) that would substantially change various countries' rankings. Sweden, for example, which ranks low in incarceration rate scales, ranks high in prison admission rates. Similarly, rankings might be

THE IMPACT OF ENHANCED PRISON TERMS FOR FELONIES COMMITTED WITH GUNS*

Legislation mandating minimum sentences or additions to sentences for crimes committed with guns is a frequent response to gun problems. We compiled these state laws and estimated their impact on state prison populations, prison admissions, UCR crime rates, and gun use in homicides, assaults and robberies. We employed a multiple time series research design, with data for nearly all states over the past 16 to 24 years, such that for any one state the remaining states operated as controls. Several small‐scale studies have suggested that the laws might reduce some types of gun crime. We found that the laws produced such an impact in no more than a few states and that there is little evidence that the laws generally reduce crime or increase prison populations.

The Direct and Indirect Effects of Socio-Economic Variables on State Imprisonment Rates

Almost two decades of research on the exact relationship between socio-economic variables and the rate of incarceration has produced highly divergent results. Some of these inconsistencies may be due to the various models specified (some use total crime rather than violent, and some control for system level variables while others do not). Virtually all of the previous research has focused on the direct effect only. Utilizing 1990 cross-sectional state level data this study examines the direct and indirect effects of socio-economic variables on imprisonment rates while controlling for arrests or crimes rates and system level variables (e.g., prison admissions and releases). Models using arrest rate data rather than crime rates were included to capture the effect of the recent "war on drugs" on imprisonment which is not included in the Index Crime rate data. These data reveal that percent nonwhite has a significant and direct effect on imprisonment levels across the U.S., but less of a direct effect in nonsouthern states. The data also document that percent nonwhite has a substantial indirect effect. The indirect effect of economic inequality is greater than the direct effect. Finally, there was no variation in the effects of extra-legal variables between those models which controlled for system level data and those which did not.

Forecasting Demand Using Survival Modeling: an application to US prisons

A systems approach to modeling demand which incorporates survival modeling is applied to the problem of prison population projection. The approach models the flow of inmates through the prison system and differs from earlier approaches by exploiting the differences in the incarceration hazard rates of individuals in the general population and those who have previously been incarcerated and explicitly considering the impact of constrained prison capacity on release policy and future admissions. The methodology capitalizes on the impact of recursion in the prison population and reduces the amount and complexity of data required for long-term forecasts. First-time arrivals to prison are modeled as a Poisson process arising from the general population; recidivist arrivals are modeled using a failure model, where the reincarceration hazard rate is a function of age and race. The model is demonstrated for the state of North Carolina located in the Southeastern region of the United States. The effect of limited prison capacity on the mean of the time-served distribution is shown. The results demonstrate that an early release policy will generate an increase in prison admissions through the return to prison of former inmates. Further, the results show that a systems approach to modeling of prison demand which includes the non-linear effect of recidivism, i.e., survival modeling, has a significant impact on the accuracy of forecasts.

An Economic Analysis of Recidivism among Drug Offenders

Following Becker [5], economists have modeled decisions to commit crimes as rational choices in reaction to incentives and constraints. In particular, potential criminals consider the probability of being caught and the severity of punishment in their decision calculus, as well as the opportunity cost of their time. But arguments are frequently made by police and other public officials which imply that drug users are different than the rational criminal of the economic model. Therefore, this study investigates factors affecting recidivism among Florida's drug offenders from the perspective provided by the economic theory of crime in order to see if drug offenders do react to incentives and constraints, and to explore the implications of alternative policies toward this large and growing segment of the criminal population. The relationship between drug use and non-drug crime may have very important policy implications. For example, Florida's prison population has increased dramatically in the past decade, growing from 19,681 at the end of the 1980-81 fiscal year to 38,059 by June 30, 1989, and a substantial portion of these increased admissions are for drug offenses. Drug offenses accounted for only 21.5 percent of Florida's prison admissions during the first half of FY86-87, but during the same period in FY89-90 drug offenses accounted for 36.6 percent of all admissions. New admissions to prison have forced a more rapid turnover of inmates through early release programs resulting in a declining proportion of sentences served. In January 1987 Florida's prisoners served an average of 52 percent of their sentence. By December 1989 this proportion had fallen to 33 percent, a 37 percent decline in two years. These trends are largely a result of an increasingly tough policy toward drug offenders. Similarly, police resources have been reallocated to focus on the control of drug offenses, thereby reducing the ability of police to deter non-drug crimes [3; 4]. This reallocation of resources has led to rising property crime rates. Therefore, the opportunity

Cross-National Comparisons of Imprisonment

Cross-national comparisons of incarceration are often invoked, usually to make a critical comparison between the invoker's jurisdiction and others. Most such comparisons are limited to average numbers confined or census date populations and are inherently misleading. Some countries such as Sweden and the Netherlands, for example, have smaller average prison populations per capita than most countries but annual rates of prison admissions that are much higher. Better comparisons would take account of admissions and sentence lengths for both remand and sentenced populations and would take account of some or all of crime rates, prosecutions, convictions, and sentences. Various theories to explain incarceration trends have been offered and tend to have more explanatory significance within than between jurisdictions.

Regulating Prison Admissions by Quota: A Descriptive Account of the Texas Allocation Formula

Regulating Prison Admissions by Quota: A Descriptive Account of the Texas Allocation Formula

Alcohol, Substance Abuse, and Violence Among North Carolina Prison Admissions, 1988

Researchers contrasted claimed substance intoxication at the time of crime commission with violent crimes for 1988 admissions to the North Carolina Department of Correction. Self-report prevalence rates of substance intoxication (54.37%) were similar to the percentages of positive urine samples randomly taken from parolees (57.29%) and probationers (46.71%). Some admissions of all ages (range: 15-65) reported using drugs at the time of their crime. Prisoners reporrcd age-linked preferences for drugs beginning with poly-substance abuse, primarily alcohol ,and cannabis, at age 20 and progressing to heroin by age 35. The .most frequently abused drug was alcohol. Intoxicated criminals committed no more violent offenses than sober offenders. Inmates inebriated with illegal drugs committed fewer violent crimes than either sober offenders, poly-abusers, or alcohol abusers. Results suggest that intoxication with alcohol free mood altering drugs contribute to a reduction of violent crime among incarcerated crimina...

Drug treatment in jails: Results of a nationwide survey

Although the number of drug-involved jail and prison admissions has risen sharply since 1985, there is little information available regarding the development of correctional programs designed to meet the treatment needs of this population. This article examines major findings from a nationwide survey of 1,737 American jails to identify the frequency with which jails provide drug treatment services, the type of services offered, and the extent of in-jail drug treatment programs currently being developed. Findings indicate that 28 percent of jails provide drug treatment services and that only 7 percent of jails provide a comprehensive level of treatment services. Implications for development of enhanced in-jail drug treatment programs are discussed.

Democratic Justice

How much influence do citizens have over government decisions? One way in which scholars have attempted to answer this question is by assessing the correspondence between public opinion and public policy. Past research has found that, sometimes, mass attitudes and government outputs have moved together, but these studies did not control for other factors which might cause policy change. This article tests a multivariate model describing the behavior of policy outputs in one substantive area over time. A simultaneous equation model of prison admissions, releases, and rated capacity is developed and its parameters estimated using time-series data from California for the period from 1946 through 1980. Two indicators of public preferences, the percentage of national poll respondents favoring capital punishment and the proportion of the vote for governor cast for the Republican party candidate, are found to exert significant effects on correctional policy outputs.

Institutional responses to unemployment: A comparison of U.S. trends, 1948?1985

Previous studies that consistently find a direct effect of unemployment on imprisonment fail to consider other state policies that may be related both to unemployment and imprisonment. This ommission potentially biases in unknown ways the estimated effect of unemployment. This study uses postwar U.S. time series data to examine how the effects of unemployment on imprisonment are influenced by mental institutionalization, military enlistments and welfare rolls. No evidence of trade-offs in social control policies can be detected in these data, thus supporting the previous findings that unemployment directly affects prison admissions.

The dynamics of unemployment and imprisonment in England and Wales, 1946–1985

This paper explores the dynamic relationship between unemployment and prison admissions in the English criminal justice system. First, by adopting econometric procedures designed to test between alternative forms of dynamic equilibria, it finds that there has been a steady-state growth rate in prison admissions and that unemployment growth has played an important role in determining that equilibrium. Second, by developing a behavioral model of judicial expectations, it argues that judges have used their expectations as heuristic devices for simplifying sentencing decisions and that the unanticipated changes in unemployment have played a key role in determining changes in sentencing patterns. Due to individualized sentencing practices characteristic of English judges, unemployment plays a much larger role in determining prison sentences than warranted under Anglo-American legal traditions.

Determinate Sentencing: Real or Symbolic Effects?

Abstract The move to get tough on crime through determinate sentencing was assessed by comparing the last three years of Arizona's old criminal code with the first three years of its new code. As expected, under the new code there was an increase in plea bargaining, prison admissions and commitment rates and the percentage of violent offenders sentenced to prison. Contrary to expectations, the percentages of offenders sentenced to prison or jail as a condition of probation and the length of prison terms decreased, and the percentage of probation only sentences increased. Although the new code did nothing to increase the certainty of apprehension, arrests and felony filings increased dramatically, leading to prison and jail overcrowding. Drawing upon a recent, similar experience absent major code revisions and upon current factors external to new code provisions, the symbolic stimulative effect of the new code and resource availability rather than substantive changes in the law are suggested as primary det...