An Economic Analysis of Recidivism among Drug Offenders

Abstract

Following Becker [5], economists have modeled decisions to commit crimes as rational choices in reaction to incentives and constraints. In particular, potential criminals consider the probability of being caught and the severity of punishment in their decision calculus, as well as the opportunity cost of their time. But arguments are frequently made by police and other public officials which imply that drug users are different than the rational criminal of the economic model. Therefore, this study investigates factors affecting recidivism among Florida's drug offenders from the perspective provided by the economic theory of crime in order to see if drug offenders do react to incentives and constraints, and to explore the implications of alternative policies toward this large and growing segment of the criminal population. The relationship between drug use and non-drug crime may have very important policy implications. For example, Florida's prison population has increased dramatically in the past decade, growing from 19,681 at the end of the 1980-81 fiscal year to 38,059 by June 30, 1989, and a substantial portion of these increased admissions are for drug offenses. Drug offenses accounted for only 21.5 percent of Florida's prison admissions during the first half of FY86-87, but during the same period in FY89-90 drug offenses accounted for 36.6 percent of all admissions. New admissions to prison have forced a more rapid turnover of inmates through early release programs resulting in a declining proportion of sentences served. In January 1987 Florida's prisoners served an average of 52 percent of their sentence. By December 1989 this proportion had fallen to 33 percent, a 37 percent decline in two years. These trends are largely a result of an increasingly tough policy toward drug offenders. Similarly, police resources have been reallocated to focus on the control of drug offenses, thereby reducing the ability of police to deter non-drug crimes [3; 4]. This reallocation of resources has led to rising property crime rates. Therefore, the opportunity