Maize Prices Research Articles

Trends in area, production, productivity and market prices of maize in Telangana state

Trends in area, production, productivity and market prices of maize in Telangana state

Assessing the Asymmetric Effect of Global Climate Anomalies on Food Prices: Evidence from Local Prices

This paper uses time-varying smooth transition autoregressive model to investigate the asymmetric nature of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) —an exogenous climatic factor—with respect to the nonlinear dynamics of food prices in sub-Saharan Africa. Curating food price series from more than 1100 markets from 36 SSA countries, the study finds that ENSO (linearly or nonlinearly) affects roughly half of food prices considered, with most nonlinear models exhibiting strong asymmetric properties with shock-inflicted persistence. Moreover, in terms of the location of the burden of ENSO impact, I find a geographical and food product divide. Specifically, ENSO appears to be more efficacious on maize prices in Southern, Eastern, and some parts of Central Africa. Conversely, local rice, cassava, millet, and animal products are least affected. The policy implication of this dichotomy is that response to ENSO news should be subregion-specific rather than region-specific, depending on how the subregions absorb the shock.

Effects of food price changes on child undernutrition among agricultural households in Nigeria

This study examines the effects of changing food prices on the nutritional outcomes of children under five years old in Nigeria, utilising data from the 2013 and 2016 Nigeria Living Standards Measurement Study – Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA). We applied correlated random-effects probit and fixed-effects regression models to analyse the data. Results indicate an increase in stunting and decreases in wasting and underweight conditions among children over the years studied. Specifically, higher prices for fish, eggs, beef, rice, and cooking oil have a significant association with increased stunting, while increases in the prices of maize and garri are associated with greater wasting. Underweight increase with higher prices of milk, maize, and rice. In contrast, modest increases in yam and beans prices have not exacerbated undernutrition. The study also highlights the importance of household income growth and women's involvement in financial decisions in reducing child undernutrition. We advocate for agriculture-led, nutrition-sensitive policies that address the high costs of animal proteins and staples such as rice, maize, and garri, while monitoring and carefully regulating upticks in the prices of yam and beans.

Empirical Assessment of Maize Price Dynamics and Market Integration in Selected Regional Markets of Benue State, Nigeria.

This study investigated how maize prices move in selected regional markets in Benue State, Nigeria. The researchers looked at monthly maize price data from January 2008 to December 2018 to determine if the price series in these different markets were connected. Specific tests were used to determine if the prices influenced each other over time (market integration) and, if so, which market (rural or urban) tended to lead the price changes in the state. The result revealed that maize prices eventually stabilized over time (became stationary) and that rural and urban markets were indeed connected. There was also evidence of some level of market integration in the short term. Interestingly, the price changes in one market didn't always directly cause changes in the other market. In some cases, price changes seemed to flow in both directions. Based on these results, this study therefore recommends that the all stakeholders provide information centers and use media channels to improve communication between maize producers and consumers in the state; as this would allow actors to make more informed decisions about maize marketing.

Sustainable alternative to irrigated maize monoculture in a maize-dominated cropped area: Lessons learned from a system experiment

Maize is the most-produced food crop in the world and is grown in intensive rotations or in monoculture (continuous maize) systems. As maize production has expanded massively across the world, many concerns have emerged about its local environmental and other global impacts. Agronomists have designed innovative cropping systems and assessed them using system experiments to make arable systems more sustainable. However, knowledge is still lacking on the sustainability of innovative cropping systems compared to highly intensive systems such as irrigated maize-based monoculture. Here, we present the assessment results of a nine-year system experiment in Alsace, France, developed to compare an innovative system based on a diversified rotation and innovative management practices (three-year rotation of maize/soybean/winter wheat (plus a cover crop) combined with reduced tillage) with a continuous maize reference system. The results cover a six-year assessment period following an initial three-year design period. Classic criteria, such as profitability, workload, pesticide use, fossil energy consumption and nitrate leaching, were assessed along with other less studied criteria, such as pesticide leaching risk, soil structure, soil chemical quality and soil biological activity. Sustainability – which includes environmental, social and economic dimensions – was assessed with the MASC 2.0 method. Overall sustainability was substantially enhanced in the innovative system (5 out of 7 sustainability classes) in comparison with the low level of the reference system (2 out of 7). This was due to a clear improvement in the environmental performance (from 2 out of 5 to 5 out of 5) while social performance was high in both systems (4 out of 5) and economic performance was low (2 out of 5) due to very low contribution to economic development. Nevertheless, the innovative system had a major drawback: lower profitability, especially when scenarios included high maize prices. Furthermore, herbicide use on maize was higher in the innovative system than in the reference one. Avenues for progress, such as encouraging stakeholder participation at the assessment stage or additional innovations such as multiple cropping, are suggested.

The Impact of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty on Global Grain Prices --Based on the TVP-VAR-SV Model

Grain products are essential for human survival and economies, and their price fluctuations significantly impact global economic stability. Recent frequent uncertain events have made global economic policy uncertainty a major factor in global food price fluctuations. This study choose European debt crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russo-Ukrainian war as three typical type of uncertainty event. And used TVP-VAR-SV model to examine the impact of global economic policy uncertainty on the prices of beans, maize, rice, and wheat. The result shows policy uncertainty leads to fluctuating grain prices, with food grains (rice, wheat) and feed grains (beans, maize) reacting differently. And different types of uncertainty events have different effects, with the pandemic having the greatest effect. Finally, the paper suggests strategies for global food security, including improved information communication, policy control, early warning systems, stable economic policies, and supervision of the agricultural futures market.

EGG PRICE RESPONSE TO INCREASE IN THE PRICES OF MAIZE AND SOYBEAN MEAL IN NIGERIA USING ECONOMETRIC TOOLS

Poultry egg productionn depends greatly on maize and soybean meal which affect the price of egg directly. Egg has been confirmed as one of the cheapest sources of protein. This study was aimed at estimating the relationship between egg price (EP) response to maize price (MP) and soybean meal price (SBMP) changes in Nigeria from 1990 to 2021Time series data in respect of SBMP (N/Kilogramme), MP (N /Kilogramme) and EP (N /Crate) in local currency were obtained. Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test and, the Johansen cointegration technique were employed to test for the stationarity of the variables and the long-run relationship between variables, respectively. Result of the study shows the presence of one co integrating long run equilibrium relationship between the variables. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) estimates showed that MP and SBMP had a negative influence on egg production which consequently transform to high price of egg. Policies on reduction of MP and SBMP should be implemented so as to reduce the EP and make the produce more available to the Nigeria populace.

Price Dynamics in South African Agriculture: A Study of Cross-Commodity Spillovers between Grain and Livestock Markets

In South Africa, the agricultural sector is a crucial pillar of the economy, with the livestock and grain industries playing significant roles in ensuring food security, fostering economic growth, and providing employment opportunities, particularly in rural areas. This research addresses the relatively unexplored relationship between the livestock and grain industries in South Africa. This study employs a comprehensive approach using a VAR/VECM framework alongside VECM Granger causality tests, Toda Yamamoto causality tests, impulse response functions, and variance decomposition analysis. The main findings of this study demonstrate a long-run relationship among the study variables, with consistently low error correction terms indicating slow short-term adjustments. Significant long-run relationships were observed between grain feed prices and livestock prices, where yellow maize and soybean prices affect live weaner prices, while beef carcass prices influence yellow maize prices. Overall, the results highlight the pivotal role that yellow maize plays as a link between the South African livestock and grain markets. The study concluded that policy formulation for the South African agricultural sector must consider the interconnected nature of the grain and livestock markets to achieve sustainable and effective outcomes.

Modeling the economic impact for Chile of an import ban on genetically modified maize.

We estimate producer and consumer surplus changes due to a possible GM maize import ban in Chile, which produces only non-GM grains for internal use. Without foreign non-GM sources, the ban's effect on domestic maize prices would be so significant as to induce Chile to switch from net exporter to net importer of animal products. Fixed factor owners in farm production would benefit significantly, although non-GM maize imports would moderate gains. Total social welfare measures would decline considerably, requiring large offsetting noneconomic benefits for a ban's political viability. Without non-GM imports, internal maize prices would likely eliminate domestic animal product industries; with possible imports, industries and final consumers would suffer, but much less. Currently, the country is a net importer of grain and a net exporter of pork and poultry, and so most welfare losses on the demand side of the market for maize would be in terms of the economic rents generated by the pork and poultry sectors. International competition would protect final consumers to the extent that animal product imports based on GM feed were permitted.

Causal Relationship Between Maize Production and Its Price in Zambia

In Zambia, changes in food prices specifically maize prices have received much of the attention of late because of its effect on national food security, farming systems, and political-economic conditions of the country. Measures have been taken in order to prevent future food crises and to achieve zero hunger by 2030 as per Sustainable Development Goal number 2 targets 2.4 and 2.c. The national strategies to stabilise the price and influence productivity depend on availability of data from different researchers. Most studies on maize production in Zambia have focused on climatic and demographic factors with insufficient efforts taken in addressing price changes on maize production. The article examined the consequences of changing price from 1990 to 2021 of maize on maize production in Zambia. It used a cross sectional research design to analyse secondary data from Zambia Statistics Agency and Food Agriculture Organization. The use of Granger causality test (time series) during analysis revealed unidirectional causation between price and production. This implies that price of maize is the Granger cause of maize production (p-value = 0.0010). The increase of price of maize influences maize productivity among peasants. The policy implication stemming from this study is that since price influences maize production, controlling maize production without stabilizing price levels cannot be enough to boost the agricultural economy and alleviate poverty. The government needs to control maize prices to meet the domestic self-sufficient and affordable prices.

Baiting the hook: Fish scarcity, gendered division of labour, and the fish-for-sex trade

Transactional sex in sub–Saharan Africa's fishing communities, driven by the highly gendered organisation of production, is widely recognised as a key driver of HIV transmission in lakeshore areas. This longitudinal study investigates the economic drivers of the trade and its impact on sexual health outcomes. Specifically, the impact of regional and district fish market shocks and comparable maize shocks on facility-level sexual health outcomes are examined in Tanzania's shoreline communities. Following unfavourable shocks to the fish market, such as high prices or low amounts of fish captured, this paper finds that new HIV cases, newly pregnant women attending antenatal clinic, and the number of people treated for syphilis increases with proximity to the shoreline, supporting the hypothesis that the fish-for-sex trade intensifies when fish supply is relatively scarce. Further, the observed increase in new HIV cases is driven by new cases in women. Contrasting effects are observed following maize price shocks, where facilities see an increase in both male and female new HIV cases following a favourable price shock. These findings highlight the role that gender-based organisation of production plays in shaping sexual health inequalities following shocks to a good.

Effects of Government Price Policies on Major Agricultural Commodities in Andhra Pradesh, India

This study was concerned with analysis of export competitiveness and quantification of impact of price policies in Andhra Pradesh on net social loss in production and consumption, and welfare gain of farmers and consumers and change in Government revenue with respect to major food grains and commercial crops. Policy Analysis Matrix and Partial Equilibrium Model in the Marshallian economic surplus framework are employed in this study. The findings from Policy Analysis Matrix revealed that, on the input side, the farmers are more subsidized for rice and maize, as Nominal Protection coefficient on Tradable Inputs are less than one across all the major importing countries (unlike for chickpea, cotton lint and chilies (dry)). However, from the output side (Nominal Protection coefficient on Tradable output), the farmers producing rice, maize and chilies (dry) are more protective compared to social prices. Considering both input and output policies together, the farmers are simultaneously protective (Effective Protection Coefficient) for rice and maize and hence, the overall transfer from society to farmers is positive (Subsidy Ratio to Producers). The findings from Partial Equilibrium Model showed that total net social loss was found to be positive implying protectionism favoured the farmers across all the selected commodities. Further, the net social loss in production turned out to be positive confirming the main postulate of this study—a price greater than the equilibrium price will reduce the quantity demanded. The protectionist policies further led to a positive effect of trade liberalization on the welfare in the State and an increase in foreign exchange earnings, except for chickpea (in view of its net-importer status). Unlike farmers, consumers in Andhra Pradesh suffered welfare loss due to higher domestic prices over border prices for rice, maize and chilies (dry), However, there is a considerable increase in Government revenue due to pricing policies formulated by the Government of Andhra Pradesh. The welfare gains to farmers are negative for chickpeas and cotton in view of higher domestic prices compared to border prices. So, the key point evident is that due to protectionism, the magnitude of net loss to consumers’ welfare compared to welfare gain of farmers is higher between Rs. 21916 lakh to Rs. 23768 during TE 2020-21 implying welfare transfers from consumers to farmers. Thus, the Government of Andhra Pradesh is spending an enormous amount of money to keep the protection policies going for the benefit of farmers. However, considering the net importer status of chickpeas, the Government should further escalate the subsidy both in production and marketing programs.

ARIMA model for forecasting of maize prices in Telangana state by using SAS

ARIMA model for forecasting of maize prices in Telangana state by using SAS

Do Weather Derivatives Mitigate the Revenue Risk of Farmers?—The Case of Tongliao, Inner Mongolia, China

This research probes the potential of weather derivatives as tools for mitigating the variability of crop yields due to climatic uncertainties in China. Centered on Tongliao City in Inner Mongolia, the study exploits a long short-term memory (LSTM) network to dissect and simulate 32 years of local precipitation data, thereby achieving a simulation of high reliability. Further exploration through a multiple linear regression model confirms a marked positive relationship between rainfall amounts and maize yields. By combining precipitation put options and the total revenue function for farmers, mathematical derivations yield specific expressions for optimal trading quantities and risk hedging efficiency. The research findings show that, using an assumption of a maize price that is 3 CNY/kg, when farmers purchase around 6.22 precipitation put options they can achieve 67.9% risk hedging efficiency. This highlights the significant role of precipitation put options under specific conditions in reducing the risk of decreased maize yields due to reduced precipitation. However, in practical markets, variations in maize prices and the price change unit (λ) are inevitable. Through further analysis, this study reveals that as these factors change, the optimal trading quantity and hedging efficiency also undergo varying degrees of adjustment. The investigation lays a theoretical groundwork for the practical application and empirical validation of weather derivatives within China’s agrarian sector. However, the study underscores the necessity of a holistic approach to market dynamics to refine hedging strategies. Future decision making must integrate market fluctuations, and adopting transparent pricing mechanisms is critical for enhanced risk management and the advancement of sustainable agricultural practices.

Profit efficiency among kenyan maize farmers

The profit efficiency (PE) of maize farming and its determinants are estimated using the true random effect (TRE) approach. A survey of maize farmers was conducted in Uasin Gishu, one of Kenya's top maize-producing regions. Clearly, maize farmers can increase their profits based on the mean PE of 0.62. In terms of profitability, maize farming is elastically affected by the price of maize, but inelastically affected by the price of inputs. In households where the head of household is male, household sizes are larger, and farm sizes are larger, inefficiencies of profit are significantly reduced. Despite this, factors such as the distance between home and the maize farm, soil characteristics, maize diseases, along with natural disasters significantly increase profit inefficiency. According to the findings of the study, maize prices are more effective targets for developing supportive policies than input prices. To significantly increase PE, farmers would benefit from programs designed to improve their production and management skills to preserve soil health and minimize damage caused by disease and natural disasters. Furthermore, increase in PE would be achieved by improving farm size through land-use policies.

Climate change and livestock production in Sub‐Saharan Africa: Effects and transmission channels

AbstractThis article assesses the effect of climate change on livestock production in Sub‐Saharan Africa, for a sample of 45 countries over the period 2000–2021. Using a two‐factor fixed effects panel data model, our results obtained by the two‐way fixed effects estimator show that (i) climate change negatively influences livestock production through high temperatures, while abundant rainfall is beneficial. (ii) Through transmission channels, we find that maize price volatility exacerbates the negative effect of rising temperatures on livestock production, while it reduces the beneficial effect of abundant rainfall. Furthermore, we find that water availability mitigates the adverse effect of rising temperatures on livestock, while enhancing the beneficial effect of rainfall on livestock. Finally, we concede that conflicts reduce the beneficial effect of rainfall on livestock production. To increase livestock production in Sub‐Saharan Africa, we recommend: the practice of pastoralism, based on the production of plants and fodder adapted to climate change, the improvement of animal nutrition, and the inclusion of breeders in the decision‐making process in the cattle industry.

Does Farmers Aware and Benefited with Price Policy: A Study in Tamil Nadu, India

Aim: The support prices announced by the government are moved with a purpose of providing price security to farmers. This study assess the level of awareness on price support policy, to study the relationship between, minimum support price and price realized by the farmers and to study the implementation of MSP Policy in Tamil Nadu.
 Study Design: Multi stage random sampling techniques were adopted.
 Place and Duration of Study: The study was conducted in Tamil Nadu. Primary data were collected from 30 districts of the State. The data was collected during the period from August 2021-September 2021.
 Methodology: A total of 600 farmers from 30 districts were surveyed. Both primary and secondary data was used for this study. The data are pertaining to the reference year 2020-21. The percentage and average analysis were done.
 Results: This study found that 55 per cent of farm households are not aware of MSP of crops grown by them which is a cause of concern. The crops like paddy, maize, green gram, cotton and sugarcane price realized by the farmer was less than the announced MSP. Out of few who were aware of MSP, nearly 20 per cent of farmers reported not selling the produce to procurement agencies. The important advantages from the procurement agencies are immediate payment for the produce and genuineness in weighment.
 Conclusion: To increase the awareness about MSP of crops and to take benefit of it, better network of procurement agencies should be developed. Decentralized procurement agencies with local presence coupled with increased drying facility, storage capacity and deficiency payments can extend the benefits of support prices to a larger segment of the farming community.

Market integration and asymmetric price transmission in selected domestic markets for major staple foods in Uganda

In this study, we examined the price transmission dynamics and market integration among domestic markets for Uganda’s major staple foods (matoke, maize, and beans) utilizing the Granger causality analysis, bounds test, Wald test for long- and short-run asymmetry, and the nonlinear ARDL model. Among the key findings, the causal order between wholesale and retail commodity prices flows unidirectionally forward from the wholesale to the retail level across all markets. Wholesale and retail prices for Uganda’s staple foods are interlinked in all markets, and spatially separated markets are also well integrated. The Wald test revealed asymmetric price transmission (APT) in speed alone for the pairs wholesale and retail prices of matoke in Kampala, and wholesale prices of matoke in Mbarara with Kampala retail prices, both APT in magnitude and APT in speed for the pairs wholesale and retail prices of beans in Kampala, wholesale and retail prices of maize in Masindi, and wholesale prices of beans in Masindi with wholesale and retail prices in Kampala. We also found that in the long run, retail prices respond more strongly to wholesale price increases than decreases, an implication of positive APT in the marketing supply chain of Uganda’s major staples. This may be linked to information asymmetry between traders and consumers, traders’ adjustment costs, production levels, inventory management, and the market power of retailers. We thus concluded that final consumers are more likely to experience an increase rather than a decrease in the prices of staples at the retail level, while retailers are more likely to benefit from price decreases at the wholesale level.

Maize Production Forecasting in Iraq: A Box-Jenkins Approach for the Period of 2022-2026

This study aims to forecast the production of Iraq’s maize crop using Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. Using the semi-annual data for the period 1980-2021, the production of the maize crop was forecasted for 5 years, starting from 2022 to 2026. The data were obtained from the Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation, Planning and Monitoring Department, Agricultural Statistics Department, Iraq. The forecasted production of maize in Iraq during the period 2021-2026 is characterized by fluctuations between highs and lows, similar to the production of maize during the study period. The highest expected production value of maize in Iraq was in the second half of 2023, reaching 585 thousand tons, while the lowest expected production was 500 thousand tons in the first half of 2022. This study is significant in providing valuable insights that can guide the formulation of effective policies regarding maize production, pricing, and consumption in the country.

Sustainable maize intensification through site-specific nutrient management advice: Experimental evidence from Nigeria

There is growing evidence on the impacts of site-specific nutrient management (SSNM) from Asia. The evidence for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where SSNM developments are more recent and where conditions concerning soil fertility and fertilizer use differ importantly from those in Asia, is extremely scarce. We evaluate a SSNM advisory tool that allows extension agents to generate fertilizer recommendations tailored to the specific situation of an individual farmer’s field, using a three-year randomized controlled trial with 792 smallholder farmers in the maize belt of northern Nigeria. Two treatment arms were implemented: T1 and T2 both provide SSNM information on nutrient use and management, but T2 provides additional information on maize price distributions and the associated variability of expected returns to fertilizer use. We estimate average and heterogenous intent-to-treat effects on agronomic, economic and environmental plot-level outcomes. We find that T1 and T2 lead to substantial increases (up to 116%) in the adoption of good fertilizer management practices and T2 leads to incremental increases (up to 18%) in nutrient application rates, yields and revenues. Both treatments improve low levels of nutrient use efficiency and reduce high levels of greenhouse gas emission intensity, after two years of treatment. Our findings underscore the possibility of a more gradual and sustainable intensification of smallholder agriculture in SSA, as compared with the Asian Green Revolution, through increased fertilizer use accompanied by improved fertilizer management.