Maize Production Forecasting in Iraq: A Box-Jenkins Approach for the Period of 2022-2026

Abstract

This study aims to forecast the production of Iraq’s maize crop using Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. Using the semi-annual data for the period 1980-2021, the production of the maize crop was forecasted for 5 years, starting from 2022 to 2026. The data were obtained from the Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation, Planning and Monitoring Department, Agricultural Statistics Department, Iraq. The forecasted production of maize in Iraq during the period 2021-2026 is characterized by fluctuations between highs and lows, similar to the production of maize during the study period. The highest expected production value of maize in Iraq was in the second half of 2023, reaching 585 thousand tons, while the lowest expected production was 500 thousand tons in the first half of 2022. This study is significant in providing valuable insights that can guide the formulation of effective policies regarding maize production, pricing, and consumption in the country.