Price Of Grain Research Articles

Market Integration and Price Transmission of Grain And Rice In Jepara Regency

Abstract Jepara is one of the rice-producing centers in Central Java. The price of rice in Jepara always experiences an increase, which is not always the same as changes in the price of grain at the producer level. The differences in price movements in the market vertically indicate the need to study integration analysis and vertical price transmission. This study aims to analyze the market integration and price transmission of grain and rice between producers and consumer in Jepara Regency. The data used is secondary data in the form of daily data on the real price of dry unhusked rice harvested at the farm level, the price of rice at the mill level and the price of rice at the consumer level in Jepara Regency from 2020 to 2022 from the Office of Agriculture and Plantation of Central Java Province and the Food Security and Agriculture Service, Jepara Regency. Data was analysed using the VECM (Vector Auto Correction Model). The results showed that there was a vertical price asymmetry in the short and long term between the price of grain at the producer level (GKP), the price of milled rice (BMP), the price of wholesale rice (HBG) and the price of retail rice (BME) in Jepara Regency. Price formation at the consumer or retail level is influenced by the price of rice at the wholesale level and the price of grain at the farm level. The price of grain at the farm level also affects the price of rice at the milling level and the wholesale level but not vice versa. Thus, it can be concluded that grain producers are the determinants of rice prices in Jepara Regency.

Factors of competitiveness of Russian grain on the world market and prospects for the development of grain farming in the context of increasing export potential

Factors of competitiveness of Russian grain on the world market and prospects for the development of grain farming in the context of increasing export potential

Analysis of grain and rice prices in the rice milling supply chain in pengadang village central lombok regency

The threat of rice price inflation is increasingly having an impact on Indonesian society, especially the poor, both rural and especially urban. Several expert reviews state that the problem of rice prices continuing to rise is due to increasing rice consumption due to population growth which is not in line with the increase in rice production capacity which continues to decline, one of which is due to the conversion of agricultural land. Rice production in Central Lombok in 2020 reached 314 327.90 GKG or the equivalent of 21.6% of NTB province's rice production. Consumption: Rice consumption for the population of Central Lombok district with a population of 947,488 people multiplied by the rice requirement of 140 kg/person/year is 132,548 tons of rice per year from rice production of 178 103 tons or a surplus of 45,555 tons. However, the rice surplus condition was unable to withstand rice price inflation in early 2024, until it reached IDR 18,000 per kg. Pengadang Village, Central Praya District, Central Lombok Regency is one of the villages with the largest number of rice mills on the island of Lombok, with 10 units and has been a supplier of Bulog rice and some of it is traded to the islands of Bali and Java. This research aims to determine the difference in prices of grain and rice in the rice milling supply chain in Pengadang Village, Praya Tengah District, Central Lombok Regency. The research method uses percentage analysis of price differences and the factors that influence it. The research results show that the lowest supply chain profit is at the price of GKP grain in Merchant at 0.26% or Rp. 20/Kg GKP, and the highest profit in the GKG grain supply chain at the mill is IDR 495/Kg or the equivalent of 6.27%. The rice price profit in the rice milling supply chain is IDR. 30/Kg or equivalent to 0.30%, but there are other benefits from by-products in the form of fine bran and coarse bran amounting to Rp. 1,219/Kg GKG or the equivalent of 12.19%. The yield of GKP grain into GKG is at an average of 84.0% and the yield of GKG to rice is at an average of 64.02%, so that a rice price of IDR can be achieved. 16,000/Kg in the milling unit.

Interconnected Markets: Unveiling Volatility Spillovers in Commodities and Energy Markets through BEKK-GARCH Modelling

Food commodities and energy bills have experienced rapid undulating movements and hikes globally in recent times. This spurred this study to examine the possibility that the shocks that arise from fluctuations of one market spill over to the other and to determine how time-varying the spillovers were across a time. Data were daily frequency (prices of grains and energy products) from 1 July 2019 to 31 December 2022, as quoted in markets. The choice of the period was to capture the COVID pandemic and the Russian–Ukrainian war as events that could impact volatility. The returns were duly calculated using spreadsheets and subjected to ADF stationarity, co-integration, and the full BEKK-GARCH estimation. The results revealed a prolonged association between returns in the energy markets and food commodity market returns. Both markets were found to have volatility persistence individually, and time-varying bidirectional transmission of volatility across the markets was found. No lagged-effects spillover was found from one market to the other. The findings confirm that shocks that emanate from fluctuations in energy markets are impactful on the volatility of prices in food commodity markets and vice versa, but this impact occurs immediately after the shocks arise or on the same day such variation occurs.

Analisis Sikap dan Kepuasan Petani terhadap Benih Padi Hibrida Pendekatan Multiatribut Fishbein dan Customer Satisfaction Index (Studi Kasus Desa Wonokarto Kecamatan Sekampung Kabupaten Lampung Timur)

Understanding farmers' attitudes and satisfaction towards hybrid seeds is essential in agriculture. This research aims to determine farmers' attitudes and satisfaction with using hybrid seeds using the Fishbein Multiattribute approach and the Customer Satisfaction Index. This research was carried out in April 2022. The farmers studied already had good experience running hybrid rice farming in Wonokarto Village, Sekampung District. The number of farmer respondents interviewed was 23, who were selected using purposive sampling techniques, namely farmers who used hybrid rice seeds. The approaches used in this research are the Fishbein Multiattribute approach and the Customer Satisfaction Index (CSI) approach. The results of the study show that based on the results of data processing using the Fishbein Multiattribute approach, there are five attributes of hybrid rice seeds that are considered the most important by farmers (marketing of produce, seed price, selling price of grain, seed productivity and seed availability). The calculation results show that the analysis of farmers' attitudes towards hybrid rice seeds obtained a total score of 609.14, which means that the hybrid rice seeds can meet the farmers' expectations and needs. Meanwhile, based on the analysis of farmer satisfaction levels regarding using hybrid rice seeds using the Customer Satisfaction Index (CSI) approach, a farmer satisfaction index of 72.96% (0.7296) was obtained. This value is in the range of 0.66 – 0.80, which means farmers are satisfied with hybrid rice seeds. By paying attention to farmers' attitudes and satisfaction with mixed seeds, stakeholders can design more effective policies, programs, and strategies to support sustainable agriculture and improve farmer welfare.

Short‐term market impact of Black Sea Grain Initiative on four grain markets

AbstractThis paper examines the short‐term market reaction of four agricultural commodities to the Russian–Ukraine war and various stages of the Black Sea Grain Initiative Agreement. Using an event study, the results show a positive abnormal return for the agricultural grain markets with the outbreak of the war and the nonrenewal of the Black Sea Grain Agreement. These two events by causing supply‐side constraints, led to an increase in the price of grains. The results also show negative and statistically significant abnormal returns around the signing of the Black Sea Grain Agreement, its implementation through the departure of the first ship loaded with Ukrainian grain after the beginning of the war and the successive extensions of the agreement. These disruptions not only affect Ukraine and Russia but also have critical implications for world food security. Policy implications of our findings are provided.

ANALYSIS OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS AFFECTING FARMERS' EXCHANGE RATE IN SOUTH KALIMANTAN

This study aims to analyze the development and the influence in short- and long-term of macroeconomic indicators: inflation, interest rates, economic growth, average grain prices, open unemployment rate and also the farmer exchange rate on farmers' exchange rates (NTP) in South Kalimantan Province. The data used is quarterly data from 2010 to 2023. The development of various macroeconomic indicators was analyzed using descriptive analysis, while their impact was analyzed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The results of the study show that those macroeconomic indicators are relatively fluctuating in line with the phenomenon that occurred in that period. Based on estimates with the ARDL(4,3,1,4,2,2) model in the short term, the NTP in the same quarter of the previous year, the average price of grain at the current time and at the time of the past six months, the current inflation, inflation of the past 3, 6, and 9 months, as well as the open unemployment rate of the past six months had a significant effect on α = 5% and 10%. In the long term, it shows that of those macroeconomic indicators do not have a significant effect on α=5% on farmer exchange rate in South Kalimantan.

“The Clash of Theoretizations”: the Case of the Ottoman Empire in the XVIIIth century

Article deals with some common theoretical questions and theories regarding the Ottoman Empire as an interesting matter to prove them right or wrong, and how they work on particular historical material. For such reasons several key theories will be used: modernization theory, world-system analysis, divergence theory, historical sociology, class struggle theory, another point of view is Ray Dalio’s concept of “big curve” and economic cycles theory, depicted in Clement Juglar, Tugan-Baranovsky and Nikolai Kondratiev works along with Oded Lagor’s theory of unified growth. Author tries to imply how these theories explain or could explain the magistral way of development in the XVIII century and how Ottoman history is comparable to other states. Main results are next: from modernization theory prospects Ottomans faced couple short periods of what we can call modernization (improvement or reestablishing institutions and the way they perform their strict duties) during the “Tulip Era” (1703-1730), during major confrontations with European powers (1750-1770) and by the beginning or reign of Selim III from 1789. All those endeavors were different in spheres. lasting and methods, but pursuing one goal – to emulate European experience using Islamic and strictly Ottoman background – creating a well-organized state, able to withstand Europe. Due to world-system analysis in the XVIII century Ottoman Empire inadvertently lost its superpower status, diminishing to regional power. Also, they shifted from semi-periphery to periphery, a process which has been proceeding for all of the XVIII century and ended in 1839. From a sociological point of view, Ottoman society began to polarize – both in territorial and functional ways. Territorial – local elites began to grow in wealth and question central government power, creating local myths, dealing with non-Muslim and tribal minorities. Functional – due to absence of large-scale industrial manufacturing and consequently absence of middle class in European view, Ottoman trading elites profited as mediators for Europeans and consequently didn’t grow as “Third power” to provide pressure on their government. Ray Dalio’s “big curve” concept was chosen due to its nearly absence in current research, and it is shown that it is too abstract and uses non-qualified criteria to make any probable conclusion, whether state is fine or on the verge of collapse. Economic activity cycles concept shows that Ottomans situated in the wholesale trend of the XVIII century – diminishing prices for grain and rising activity in the credit sphere.

ЗЕРНОВИЙ ЕКСПОРТ УКРАЇНИ В УМОВАХ ВІЙНИ

Досліджено шляхи і проблеми зернового експорту України в умовах війни. Основними шляхами відновлення експорту зерна є «смуги солідарності» Україна – ЄС і Чорноморська зернова ініціатива. Проте ці заходи лише частково вирішили проблему експорту зерна з України у 2022 – на початку 2023 р. У 2022 р. відбулося зменшення обсягів експорту українського зерна на 32,6 % порівняно з обсягами попереднього року. Повномасштабна воєнна агресія РФ проти України спричинила різке зростання світових цін на пшеницю, а започаткування «смуг солідарності» й морського зернового коридору посприяли їх суттєвому зниженню, зокрема на зерно. Проте вітчизняні виробники зерна і експортери не змогли скористатися зростанням світових цін на зерно у 2022 р. через збільшення транспортних видатків при перевезенні до портів, зростання маржі посередників з урахуванням ризиків воєнного часу, підвищення вартості фрахту суден тощо. Відповідні втрати в ціні зерна при експорті з України перекладаються по зерновому ціновому ланцюгу переважно на нижню його ланку – виробника зерна. Частка виробника (на умовах EXW) у експортній ціні пшениці 2-го класу зменшилася з 80 % на початку дії морського зернового коридору до 67 % при експорті морським зерновим коридором у лютому 2023 р. Серйозні ризики для повоєнного відновлення українського експорту зерна становлять процеси релокації торговельних потоків на традиційних ринках експорту зернових з Чорноморського регіону, пов’язані, насамперед, із заміщенням українського зерна російським. Розвитку українського зернового експорту сприяло б максимальне дистанціювання від РФ у торговельній політиці щодо експорту продукції у межах Чорноморського регіону за рахунок залучення до торговельних потоків Середземноморського регіону з використанням конвенції щодо правил походження Пан-Євро-Мед.

The role of quality in the grain market: wheat prices formation in eighteenth-century Northern Italy

Abstract The aim of this paper is to analyse the role of wheat quality in the formation of wheat prices in the early modern period, adopting eighteenth-century northern Italy as a case study. Wheat prices have been widely used by economic historians to calculate living standards, determine the degree of market integration, and date famines. Rarely, however, have economic historians focused on how wheat prices were determined. By looking at the wheat supply chain, we will try to make more visible the extent to which wheat quality was crucial in determining the value of wheat and, as a consequence, the final price of grain.

Research on immature wheat harvesting behavior of farmers from the perspective of food security: An evolutionary game based analysis

Food security constitutes a foundational cornerstone for social stability, with the achievement of sustainable agricultural production serving as a vital step towards this objective. Currently, the untimely harvesting of unripe wheat by farmers has led to a decline in food production, thereby posing a significant threat to the sustainability of China's food system and exacerbating food insecurity. Although the Chinese government has implemented various measures in response, their effectiveness has been limited. Limited scholarly literature exists on this particular issue. To advance food security in China, this study develops a tripartite evolutionary game model involving farmers, the government, and breeding enterprises. Adopting a systemic perspective, this study examines the interactions and impact mechanisms among these key actors during the wheat harvesting process. The findings indicate that the government should prioritize policies that enforce penalties. By implementing penalties within a reasonable range, the government can mitigate farmers' production costs and enhance the market price of grain. This approach discourages farmers from harvesting immature wheat and contributes to enhancing food security. Based on the research findings, this paper provides practical recommendations to guide the government in addressing food security governance issues.

Faktor-faktor yang Berpengaruh Terhadap Penjualan Padi dengan Sistem Tebasan di Subak Babakan Desa Sambangan Kecamatan Sukasada Kabupaten Buleleng

Influencing Factors Toward Rice Selling with Rice Slash System in Subak Babakan, Sambangan Village, Sukasada Subdistrict, Buleleng Regency
 The purpose of this study was to determine the influenced factors such as; age, education, farming experience, number of family dependents, and land tenure were affected farmers for making decision for choosen rice sold with slash system and their bargaining position within sold grain with the slash system. This research was done in Subak Babakan, Sambangan Village, Sukasada Sub-District, Buleleng Regency. The subjek was 36 farmers of Subak Babakan. The land ownership per household was on average 0.80 hectares. Meanwhile, in the negotiation of crop yields with the slashing system, the bargaining position of farmers were still very low due to a lack of knowledge and negotiation skills in determining the price of grain. The results showed that some the factors showed positive effect. Those effect were age, education background, farming experience, number of family dependents and land tenure has significantly effect. The statistical analysis result showed t-count > t-table. The data also showed the farmers bargaining position within sold grain in the slash system was still very low. This due to lack of knowledge and skills in negotiation and determination of the price of grain.

Peculiarities of pricing in the grain market

Relevance. The grain market is one of the key sectors of the agro-industrial complex and is important for the development of the entire economy of the country. In Russia, there are many problems associated with pricing in the grain market, including the uneven distribution of agricultural producers across the country and an underdeveloped infrastructure for storing and transporting grain. Thus, this article is relevant and relevant for modern business conditions.Methods. General scientific and special research methods are presented, including a descriptive method (generalization techniques, observations, interpretation, comparison, etc.), methods of pricing analysis and forecasting grain prices, as well as recommendations for optimizing pricing in the grain market.Results. As a result of the analysis of the peculiarities of pricing in the grain market, the following results were obtained: yield is one of the main factors affecting the price of grain, insufficient gross grain harvest leads to a shortage of products on the market and an increase in prices; supply and demand also have a significant impact on the price of grain; with the devaluation of the national currency, grain prices may rise; when due to the unfavorable price environment for grain transportation, the price of products will also increase. The price of grain is a key factor for all market participants, so it is necessary to monitor changes in the market and adapt to them. To ensure the stability and profitability of the business, it is necessary to take into account all factors affecting the price of grain and make effective decisions based on the analysis of the market situation.

Possibilities of Intensification of Spring Wheat Growing Technology in the Western Siberia Forest-Steppe

Based on the results of many years of field experience, an agronomic and economic assessment of the effects of the use of chemicals for spring wheat is given in order to determine the attractiveness for farmers of the transition to growing crops using intensive technology. For the analysis, the prices of chemicals and spring wheat grain that are currently relevant for the Siberian region were taken. It is shown that under the influence of a complex of chemicalization agents (fertilizers, herbicides, fungicide), the average annual yield of wheat in a 4-full grain-pair crop rotation increased 1.8 times, reaching 3.8 tons of grain/ha. The increase in yield by 13% was due to the use of herbicides, 18% – fungicides and 69% – mineral fertilizers with a payback of 1 kg active substance 12.4 kg of grain. When calculating the average per year, the means of chemicalization provided income already at the minimum (from the accepted for analysis) grain price of 10 000 rubles/t. Income increased sharply in a number of field experience options: herbicides, herbicides + fertilizers, herbicides + fertilizers + fungicide. However, when assessing the annual effects, income from chemicals in this series was obtained, respectively, only in 42, 75 and 92% of the years. The probability of losses decreased significantly with an increase in the price of grain. But even at prices of 13.000 and 16.000 rubles/ton, the use of the entire complex of chemicals was unprofitable in 8% of the years due to the severe aridity of the growing season. At current prices for fertilizers and pesticides, the minimum sufficient price of grain can be considered 13.000 rubles/ton, which, however, does not exclude losses in severely dry years.

Stochastic properties of nonlinear locally-nonstationary filters

This article delivers conditions for the existence of a unique stationary, ergodic and φ-mixing invertible solution for nonlinear time-varying parameter models that are locally non-stationary or explosive. The assumptions are different from existing conditions as they do not impose Lipschitz, bounded growth or drift restrictions. Instead we require that the time series contains resetting dynamics. These dynamics are present in time series with sudden changes, such as stock prices with financial bubbles. We explain how our results can be applied to multiple models with time-varying conditional mean and time-varying conditional variance. Additionally, we show the empirical relevance of locally non-stationary models by developing a robust score-driven locally-nonstationary location model that allows us to identify price bubbles. In particular, we revisit the early warning system for Alert of Price Spikes (ALPS) developed by the World Food Programme (WFP, 2014). Our model is able to correctly identify price bubbles both in-sample and out-of-sample. We show that this information can be crucially relevant for the Global Information Early Warning System of the Food and Agriculture Organization (GIEWS) of the United Nations which identifies market bubbles in prices of grains and cereals in order to manage and prevent impending food crises in developing countries.

FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI KEPUTUSAN PETANI DALAM MENERAPKAN TEKNOLOGI USAHATANI PADI ORGANIK DAN DAMPAKNYA TERHADAP PRODUKTIVITAS DAN PENDAPATAN (Kasus Pada Petani di Kecamatan Cibeber, Kabupaten Cianjur)

This study aims to analyze the factors that influence farmers' decisions on the application of organic rice farming and their impact on productivity and income. The respondent determination technique used is a census obtained with a size of 80 people, each of which is 40 people who apply and 40 people who do not apply organic rice farming. The analysis technique used is multiple logistic regression. The results of the study obtained that the performance of organic rice farming was characterized by a land area of 0.44 ha, organic rice farming activities started from the use of superior and certified seeds; land management; Basic and secondary fertilization; use of organic materials; planting seeds; weeding; irrigation; pest and disease control; harvest and post-harvest, all of which are done conventionally. Marketing of the produce is done at the farmer's place with a selling price of Rp. 5,000/kg. Farmers' motivation factors, ease of obtaining organic materials, farming experience, land area, grain selling price, availability of farmer's capital simultaneously significantly influence the decision to implement organic rice farming. Meanwhile, partially, the significant ones with the largest order are: the selling price of grain; farmer motivation; ease of obtaining organic materials; and land area. The application of organic rice farming has no significant effect on productivity gains. For farm land. organic rice yielded 6,977 kg/ha productivity. While the non-organic 6,937 kg/ha. The application of organic rice farming has a positive effect on income, namely Rp. 15.162.464 / ha with R/C = 2.25, while the non-organic is Rp. 14.458.496 / ha with R/C = 1.80.

Impact of Petroleum Energy Price Volatility on Commodity Prices in Ghana

The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the relationship between petroleum energy volatility and commodity prices in Ghana, which are indexed (energy grains, meat, and cooking oil), as well as to provide an empirical specification of the impact's direction. With reference to time series literature, the paper examined energy and commodity price connection models such as augmented dickey fuller, granger causality, co-integration, vector autoregressive and the vector error correction models used in estimating the association among petroleum energy volatility and the three selected commodity variables. The paper found that, there is a long run relationship between petroleum energy volatility and commodity prices in Ghana from 2011 to 2022. A single equation error correction model suggested that, petroleum energy shocks increase prices of grains, meat and cooking oil in both the short and long run. Impulse response function and variance decomposition conducted on the variables also suggested that there is both short and long run association between the variables.

Pengaruh Harga Gabah terhadap Kesejahteraan Petani di Sumatera Utara pada Tahun 2020-2021


 One of the keys to the growth of the agricultural sector is the level of welfare enjoyed by farmers. The purpose of this study is to find out how the welfare of farmers in North Sumatra will be affected by the price of grain in 2020-2021. In accordance with the research design, quantitative descriptive research will be used to conduct this research. This kind of research is quantitative. That secondary data is used. The Central Bureau of Statistics provides information for this (BPS). The data analysis technique used Multiple Linear Regression Test with SPSS application. The results showed that the probability value. Tcount of the dry milled grain variable (X1) is 0.019 < from 0.05 so that the milled dry grain variable has a significant effect on the farmer's exchange rate variable in 2020-2021. The probability value of Tcount of Harvested Dry Grain (X2) is 0.966 > from 0.05 so that the Harvested Dry Grain variable has no effect on the Farmer's Exchange Rate variable (Y) in 2020-2021. The calculated F probability value (sig.) above is 0.047 < from the 0.05 significance level (0.047 < 0.05). So it can be said that the Variables of Milled Dry Grain and Harvested Dry Unhusked Simultaneously have a significant effect on Farmers' Exchange Rates in 2020-2021. 
 Keywords: Welfare, Grain

Погодные условия и продовольственные цены в 3-ем квартале 2022 года

The influence of drought on the grain harvest in the Russian Federation is analyzed. The quarterly statistics of the excess of domestic producer prices over world prices on the milk and sugar market are given. Producer prices for grain, milk, meat and sugar in Russia, the EU, and the USA in the 3rd quarter of 2022 are compared. There was a slowdown in food and general inflation in Russia in the 3rd quarter compared to the 2nd quarter.

Factors affecting the productivity of maize (Zea mays L.) in selected areas of Bangladesh

Though the production of maize and the area under cultivation has accelerated, the rate of increase in production is not satisfactory due to its increasing demand with the continuous expansion of the dairy and poultry sectors in Bangladesh. The intended study aimed to identify the factors affecting the production of maize and whether the resources were utilized optimally in the production process. Required data were gathered from 130 maize growers, who were taken through simple random sampling from two districts, Manikganj and Rajshahi, of Bangladesh, through the interview with a pretested questionnaire. The impact of several factors on the productivity of maize was computed with the help of the Cobb-Douglas production function. The study revealed a significant positive impact of seed, land preparation, fertilizer and water management on the final output of maize. Although maize cultivators earned a decent profit, inefficient uses of resources were practiced. Seed and fertilizer were underutilized while labour was over-utilized in the production process. The sampling frame was selected purposively to represent the intensive maize producing area. Farmers shifted to maize cultivation progressively but the high price of seeds, natural calamities and low price of grains may affect production in future. SAARC J. Agric., 20(2): 93-104 (2022)