ANALYSIS OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS AFFECTING FARMERS' EXCHANGE RATE IN SOUTH KALIMANTAN

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the development and the influence in short- and long-term of macroeconomic indicators: inflation, interest rates, economic growth, average grain prices, open unemployment rate and also the farmer exchange rate on farmers' exchange rates (NTP) in South Kalimantan Province. The data used is quarterly data from 2010 to 2023. The development of various macroeconomic indicators was analyzed using descriptive analysis, while their impact was analyzed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The results of the study show that those macroeconomic indicators are relatively fluctuating in line with the phenomenon that occurred in that period. Based on estimates with the ARDL(4,3,1,4,2,2) model in the short term, the NTP in the same quarter of the previous year, the average price of grain at the current time and at the time of the past six months, the current inflation, inflation of the past 3, 6, and 9 months, as well as the open unemployment rate of the past six months had a significant effect on α = 5% and 10%. In the long term, it shows that of those macroeconomic indicators do not have a significant effect on α=5% on farmer exchange rate in South Kalimantan.